TFT

[pettie4sox]

Avi is not a good hitter, he doesn't have a clue at the plate, and he is a very bad defender. I should have put the try him at 3B in green. I thought it was pretty obvious it was a joke.

 

Trayce in his limited time has shown success. I simply said the league hasn't figured him out yet but when they do you'll see if he can adjust.

 

That's what kills me about Avi, the dude never adjusts and is a free swinging hack. He hits softer than powdered sugar on a donut.

 

I don't think he's doomed but hopefully he works on his weakness and becomes the beast we know he's capable of.

Edited September 14, 2015 by pettie4sox

[Feeky Magee]

Isolating a 13 game stretch when he was out on a rehab assignment doesn't really make for a very compelling argument.

No but I think it's part of why people think he will eventually be a success at the major league level, feeds into the whole "he destroyed the minors" rhetoric. Whereas in reality he was terrible for 3 years, was above average in 2012, and extremely good at AAA in brief stops mainly on the back of some ludicrous BABIPs. I think his 1000+ MLB PA tell us more about who he's going to be than 250 AAA PA. Trayce's BABIP is obviously sky-high too but at least he's doing on it on the back of a decent BB:K, and showing strengths elsewhere.

[Dick Allen]

No but I think it's part of why people think he will eventually be a success at the major league level, feeds into the whole "he destroyed the minors" rhetoric. Whereas in reality he was terrible for 3 years, was above average in 2012, and extremely good at AAA in brief stops mainly on the back of some ludicrous BABIPs. I think his 1000+ MLB PA tell us more about who he's going to be than 250 AAA PA. Trayce's BABIP is obviously sky-high too but at least he's doing on it on the back of a decent BB:K, and showing strengths elsewhere.

So you want to ignore Trace's walk rate as a 24 year old in AAA, and hold Avi's numbers as a 17-19 year old against him. OK.

[kitekrazy]

Assists mean outs, and it's not like he's Juan Pierre and everyone is running on him. He is a bad fielder, there is no question, but his assists and home run saves have made up for some of that weakness.

 

Avi is also playing his first full season in the major leagues, despite his ABs which have been flung around. I just think if you can't get off the Avi Garcia is awful and always will be, you should probably lay low on Trace Thompson for the time being.

 

+1 We tend to be impatient on younger players because the veterans suck. I don't think Avi is 100% healthy. He may be one of those guys who is injury prone.

Edited September 15, 2015 by kitekrazy

[ron883]

So did Tyler Flowers. Once you get to higher levels, it's a new game. Trace has been great, but his defense has been shaky. Several curious routes, a huge error, and also seems to be thinking about that error at present. Avi is a bad defender without a doubt, but also leads the league in assists, and at least 2 home run saving catches.

 

If you want to say Avi is horrible without a chance to be any good, saying Thompson is a guy who is going to be good is a long reach.

 

Fangraphs isn't the way to identify prospects.

 

^DA's all time favorite game.

 

I think it is clear why some people like Trayce so much. He has the ability to be plus in the OF defensively. Scouting reports rave about his defense. He can turn into a plus CF defensively IMO. Avi is just awful on defense. Avi needs to hit like a stud to be more valuable than Trayce.

[Jerksticks]

The problem with Avi is that pitchers own him. I love the idea of a Good Avi too, but everyone agrees that he's almost being bullied by pitchers right??

 

Trayce looks way smarter at the plate...and that has absolutely zero to do with BB%, BABIP, OBP, K% or any stat. Zero zilch nada. Agree? Yes?

[Feeky Magee]

So you want to ignore Trace's walk rate as a 24 year old in AAA, and hold Avi's numbers as a 17-19 year old against him. OK.

I didn't say to ignore it, I made clear my reasoning that it could be a blip. I'd feel better if it was higher, sure. It's part of the reason I've said I want to see more from him. And I'm not holding it against Avi, the main evidence I have against him is his 1000+ PA in the majors with no improvement (again - worse than Dayan Viciedo at the same age at the same level), I was just using it against the whole "Avi destroyed the minors" stuff.

[Jose Abreu]

Dan Hayes ‏@CSNHayes 44s44 seconds ago

Trayce Thompson left with a left elbow sprain. X-rays were negative. He's day to day.

[Brian]

Dan Hayes ‏@CSNHayes 44s44 seconds ago

Trayce Thompson left with a left elbow sprain. X-rays were negative. He's day to day.

 

Phew. That looked bad at first.

[Eminor3rd]

The problem with Avi is that pitchers own him. I love the idea of a Good Avi too, but everyone agrees that he's almost being bullied by pitchers right??

 

Trayce looks way smarter at the plate...and that has absolutely zero to do with BB%, BABIP, OBP, K% or any stat. Zero zilch nada. Agree? Yes?

 

 

I didn't say to ignore it, I made clear my reasoning that it could be a blip. I'd feel better if it was higher, sure. It's part of the reason I've said I want to see more from him. And I'm not holding it against Avi, the main evidence I have against him is his 1000+ PA in the majors with no improvement (again - worse than Dayan Viciedo at the same age at the same level), I was just using it against the whole "Avi destroyed the minors" stuff.

 

You know what I like about Trayce RE: his K rate? His O-Swing in the Majors this year is a very sexy 25.7%, substantially below average. His Z-Swing is a bit beklow average, too, but not by much (65%). This means he's being patient and selective but not OVERLY patient and selective. That, as much as anything, is the formula for TFT being a good player. His contact rates are below average and will likely always be unless he sacrifices a ton of power, so he needs to continue to choose the right pitches to punish.

 

Essentially, also exactly what Avi needs to do but has shown no sign of even trying. Btw, Avi's O-Swing is up to 47.1% (!) somehow, second worst in the entire Majors behind only Pablo Sandoval. Holy s***.

[beautox]

You know what I like about Trayce RE: his K rate? His O-Swing in the Majors this year is a very sexy 25.7%, substantially below average. His Z-Swing is a bit beklow average, too, but not by much (65%). This means he's being patient and selective but not OVERLY patient and selective. That, as much as anything, is the formula for TFT being a good player. His contact rates are below average and will likely always be unless he sacrifices a ton of power, so he needs to continue to choose the right pitches to punish.

 

Essentially, also exactly what Avi needs to do but has shown no sign of even trying. Btw, Avi's O-Swing is up to 47.1% (!) somehow, second worst in the entire Majors behind only Pablo Sandoval. Holy s***.

 

I was looking at depth at his swing profile recently and I agree, for Trayce to be more than a good 4th OF he'll have to stabilize his BABIP to league average levels (.300), hes fast enough that he could be around .330 and i wouldn't question it, if this his new approach at the plate. If everything breaks right for Trayce and he makes good on his tools alot of things in his profile scream Alex Rios, with his defense I think he could be a 3+WAR player in CFer, and if everything breaks right it affords the sox to save a lot of money and runs by moving Eaton to LF.

[beautox]

Comment From Mike

Klay Thompson’s bro is having a fine cup of coffee. Is the amount of game power a surprise (14 XBH in his 27 hits)? Has his hit tool gotten better? His K rate in AAA this year (19%) dropped significantly compared to 2104 in AA (25.4%),and his MLB rate is 22% now past 60 AB, the point at which it stars to stabilize. Does this bode well for him being a .260 instead of a .230 hitter? What chance do you give him to be a perennial 2.5-3.5 WAR player?

 

Kiley McDaniel: The tools are goofy: 55 speed, 55 arm, 60 raw, NFL TE looking dude with a smooth swing that can play a decent CF. The concern was always approach at the plate and how much of that power he can get to. I don’t think we have a conclusive answer yet, but he appears to have made enough adjustments to get a real shot in the bigs.

 

link

[chitownsportsfan]

link

 

Thanks for posting that. He could be a 2.5 WAR player. He could also be a flash in the pan. It behooves the Sox to find out ASAP.

[beautox]

Thanks for posting that. He could be a 2.5 WAR player. He could also be a flash in the pan. It behooves the Sox to find out ASAP.

No problem. I agree that he could be a 2.5-3.5 WAR player. With the rash of players with lackluster milb careers but good tools making good on them (Cozart, Crawford & Grichuck) there is reason for optimism with Trayce. I still think if everything clicks we're looking at an Alex Rios or Hunter Pence clone.

[chitownsportsfan]

No problem. I agree that he could be a 2.5-3.5 WAR player. With the rash of players with lackluster milb careers but good tools making good on them (Cozart, Crawford & Grichuck) there is reason for optimism with Trayce. I still think if everything clicks we're looking at an Alex Rios or Hunter Pence clone.

 

I like his tools and mentally / blood he's off the charts makeup wise. Whole family is pretty much pro athletes, that has to count for something intangible. He has swag.