Robertson Claimed by Yankees, pulled back by WS

[shysocks]

Given that the $25 mil in new TV money starting in 2014 was known at the time I struggle to think that I would have said that was the limit. Feel free to find a post of mine saying that we couldn't go past that number if we wanted to. I don't think I'd have said that but I could be wrong.

This is the result of a quick search of your name and the word "payroll." If I kept going, I am quite sure I would find many more of your posts with an adamant tone that the Sox wouldn't push payroll above roughly $90-$100 million. You were not shy about it.

 

 

We're at $46 million in commitments right now. Even assuming that we only offer arbitration to guys like Jones and Flowers, non-tendering Viciedo and De Aza, we're still talking about around $10 million, maybe a few million less, for the couple guys we would actually offer. Then, filling out the majority of a roster with minimum salary guys is still going to push another $7-8 million assuming guys like Gillaspie get small raises. That puts us close to $60 million as a good starting point. $30 million in spending would push us beyond this year's payroll, and we also don't know how Abreu's signing bonus is being dealt with.

 

We could afford a $100 million payroll potentially but with the erosion in revenue over the last couple years, I doubt we see that any time soon.

 

 

The Sox started with a 2013 payroll of about $120 million, moved around $10 million out of the way during the season, and lost $5 million as a franchise on the year based on the Forbes numbers. So $105 million would have been the maximum, break-even point that year.

 

This year, they've spent an extra $8 million on amateur signings and have had revenues erode probably by >$5 million again. They've got $20 million in additional TV money, but that basically is eaten up by the revenue erosion and the fact that money was lost last year.

 

It seems like $100 million is pretty close to a hard cap for this team, and it shouldn't be surprising if they're significantly under that, especially coming off a year when Forbes has them losing money.

 

 

My best guess is that right now, assuming De Aza and Viciedo aren't back, the Sox have about $60 million in commitments for next season (with the caveat that we don't know how Abreu's signing bonus is budgeted). With the higher draft and international spending this and next year, and decreasing revenues at the gate, my best guess is that the Sox will have up to $30 million to spend next offseason. They could probably push past that for the right guy, but only if they're in a situation where they think a guy is a perfect fit for the next 5+ years or something like that.

 

$30 million isn't bad, but it's not going to land Shields + VMart + relievers. To add to each of those areas the Sox would have to think about pushing the payroll back into the $115-$120 million range next year, and they lost money at $110 million in payroll last season.

 

 

I still think those claiming us to have 30M to add to the payroll for next year are going to see that to be a big underestimate.

And I think the Free Agent spending will wind up being less than that.

 

 

There are no pieces on the market right now that warrant the Sox overspending to get them because they will put the Sox over the top. The Sox have been very wise with their decision making and fiscal responsibility thus far, and when the time comes, the Sox will be able to open the purse strings a little bit.

 

This team had a $120 or so million payroll not that long ago. They can open the pocketbook, but for a retooling team, spending a boatload of money early on isn't really necessary.

They've also lost a lot of ticket sales since they last had that payroll. Last time they started a season with a payroll close to $120 they sold of >$10 million in salaries during the year and then cut payroll by another $20 million beyond that the next offseason.

[Balta1701]

This is the result of a quick search of your name and the word "payroll." If I kept going, I am quite sure I would find many more of your posts with an adamant tone that the Sox wouldn't push payroll above roughly $90-$100 million. You were not shy about it.

A couple of those you've got me, but you also are pretty selective in what you bolded. For example, referring to $100 million, you bolded the line right next to this one but ignored this:

They could probably push past that for the right guy, but only if they're in a situation where they think a guy is a perfect fit for the next 5+ years or something like that.

[southsider2k5]

A couple of those you've got me, but you also are pretty selective in what you bolded. For example, referring to $100 million, you bolded the line right next to this one but ignored this:

 

They didn't sign anyone to a 5+ year deal though.

[shysocks]

A couple of those you've got me, but you also are pretty selective in what you bolded. For example, referring to $100 million, you bolded the line right next to this one but ignored this:

That's because you put a hedge in everything you say. It's fine, I do the exact same thing. But I also pasted the entirety of the posts to avoid taking anything out of context, and like I said before, the tone is very evident.

 

All those posts were around the same part of the season during which you're now doing it again. How about instead of analyzing ledgers we all just acknowledge that aside from the impossibility of the Sox spending $200+ million, we don't know what they're gonna do?

[Balta1701]

That's because you put a hedge in everything you say. It's fine, I do the exact same thing. But I also pasted the entirety of the posts to avoid taking anything out of context, and like I said before, the tone is very evident.

 

All those posts were around the same part of the season during which you're now doing it again. How about instead of analyzing ledgers we all just acknowledge that aside from the impossibility of the Sox spending $200+ million, we don't know what they're gonna do?

My overall summary is that if people are going to talk about whether we're going to trade a $10 million player at the waiver wire to clear salary and whether we're going to make an offer to corner OF's likely to get $20 million/season or more, its equally fair to ask where we're going to get the funds and whether it would be a good idea.

[LDF]

People on this board and the city of Chicago need to temper the crowning of the cubs and more importantly relax on over blowing how bad the White Sox are.

 

This year the cubs are well over the skis and everything has gone right. That doesn't happen often.

 

but.... and this is the big however, if you see the lineup of the team on the northside, it does look nice and with a manager who knows how to manage a team and even a nice looking minorleague system to continue to supply them.

 

what do the sox have????

[Chicago White Sox]

That's because you put a hedge in everything you say. It's fine, I do the exact same thing. But I also pasted the entirety of the posts to avoid taking anything out of context, and like I said before, the tone is very evident.

 

All those posts were around the same part of the season during which you're now doing it again. How about instead of analyzing ledgers we all just acknowledge that aside from the impossibility of the Sox spending $200+ million, we don't know what they're gonna do?

Shyrocks, thanks for finding this. I argued with Balta all last season about our potential 2015 payroll and he was convinced $100M would be our cap, despite the additional national TV revenue. Glad to see him finally held accountable for those statements.

Edited September 1, 2015 by Chicago White Sox

[Balta1701]

Shyrocks, thanks for finding this. I argued with Balta all last season about our potential 2015 payroll and he was convinced $100M would be our cap, despite the additional national TV revenue. Glad to see him finally held accountable for those statements.

You were right that they had an extra $18 million to work with and I was right about why you shouldn't spend it on this roster. Fair?

[Chicago White Sox]

My overall summary is that if people are going to talk about whether we're going to trade a $10 million player at the waiver wire to clear salary and whether we're going to make an offer to corner OF's likely to get $20 million/season or more, its equally fair to ask where we're going to get the funds and whether it would be a good idea.

I think the point is you don't have as good of a grasp on the Sox's financial situation as you think you do. None of us know what their financial forecasts are. You can't just look at last year's P&L and assume the same exact performance the following year. New revenue streams may become available, price increases or cost savings could impact the bottom line. There are numerous things that could impact payroll that you have no access to.

 

And for love of God, please stop taking what Reinsdorf, KW, or Hahn say about our financial situation as gospel. These guys have no absolutely reason to be honest about this with fans. They are much better off keeping the competition in the dark.

[Balta1701]

I think the point is you don't have as good of a grasp on the Sox's financial situation as you think you do. None of us know what their financial forecasts are. You can't just look at last year's P&L and assume the same exact performance the following year. New revenue streams may become available, price increases or cost savings could impact the bottom line. There are numerous things that could impact payroll that you have no access to.

 

And for love of God, please stop taking what Reinsdorf, KW, or Hahn say about our financial situation as gospel. These guys have no absolutely reason to be honest about this with fans. They are much better off keeping the competition in the dark.

At the same time though...things can also be worse. They had legit success in ticket sales this year, that's obvious from the attendance numbers and that's one thing I totally missed as well. Do you think they can sustain that next year?

 

If they could sustain their season ticket numbers this year then I'd be much more willing to agree that they probably have room for a big addition. I'm obviously more skeptical about that given the team's performance this year.

[LDF]

At the same time though...things can also be worse. They had legit success in ticket sales this year, that's obvious from the attendance numbers and that's one thing I totally missed as well. Do you think they can sustain that next year?

 

If they could sustain their season ticket numbers this year then I'd be much more willing to agree that they probably have room for a big addition. I'm obviously more skeptical about that given the team's performance this year.

 

i am refraining from jumping in.... but i would like to add one thing.

 

any new commercial or corp sponsors has not pony up either,

 

all this talk will change when the season ends, the total amount of attendance is announce and new info will leak out on the financials. just my take.

 

btw.... i like this thread... good work all.

[Whisox05]

http://www.csnchicago.com/white-sox/white-...trade-offseason