Samardzija/Cooper

[Balta1701]

I will bet you $1000 Samardzija declines the QO.

I would not take that bet. I would say it is a more narrow case than Jackson and if I were Samardzija's agent I'd at least have him worried.

 

I will stand by my prediction that he goes unsigned until the draft pick comp expires. I can live with being surprised and wrong on that one. That's one we've seen happen before so I'd immediately say it's more likely.

[greg775]

Shark is not going to get any better. Just pray the Sox can rid themselves of him.

[Balta1701]

Even 3/45 might look nice to the Shark camp. Don't you think he'llmgrt some $15Mper offers?

I do not know. There are a multitude of pitchers a lot better than him on this market who have no draft pick compensation attached to them. They'll get sucked up first, as will guys like Buehrle who will have draft pick compensation attached but who have performed better. That's going to eat up a lot of the money on the market.

 

Samardzija's hope, IMO, is that some team fails to satisfy their pitching need with the early guys and has money left over in late January. There is precedent for that - see Shields's deal last year. Either that, or he should be the first one to sign a contract and not wait once someone offers him something.

[harkness99]

You really believe that cooper or any pitching coach "makes" a pitcher like Shark throw anything...

 

C'mon there is no way.

 

It's a bunch of BS excuses.

[Hatchetman]

You really believe that cooper or any pitching coach "makes" a pitcher like Shark throw anything...

 

C'mon there is no way.

 

It's a bunch of BS excuses.

 

This. Smarja wouldn't have to say one word to or listen to one word Cooper had to say.

[greg775]

I do not know. There are a multitude of pitchers a lot better than him on this market who have no draft pick compensation attached to them. They'll get sucked up first, as will guys like Buehrle who will have draft pick compensation attached but who have performed better. That's going to eat up a lot of the money on the market.

 

Samardzija's hope, IMO, is that some team fails to satisfy their pitching need with the early guys and has money left over in late January. There is precedent for that - see Shields's deal last year. Either that, or he should be the first one to sign a contract and not wait once someone offers him something.

 

He has the name. I guarantee you he goes to an NL team for 17-20 mill a year for 4 years probably with an option.

[JohnCangelosi]

The only question that matters now is would we have gotten more for him at the deadline than what we will get with the comp pick?? Discuss.

[fathom]

You really believe that cooper or any pitching coach "makes" a pitcher like Shark throw anything...

 

Focusing too much on cutter caused his fastball to not be ready out of Spring Training? Also, I've said all year his mechanics are different than last season. He's pitching less over the top, which has caused his splitter to not have the same movement from last year.

[Balta1701]

The only question that matters now is would we have gotten more for him at the deadline than what we will get with the comp pick?? Discuss.

If we couldn't get more for him than the value of a comp pick then it's extremely unlikely he's going to get even Edwin Jackson money because that would mean every other team saw the red flags and the collapse coming & wouldn't give up anything useful for him.

[GreenSox]

Focusing too much on cutter caused his fastball to not be ready out of Spring Training? Also, I've said all year his mechanics are different than last season. He's pitching less over the top, which has caused his splitter to not have the same movement from last year.

Cutter is Don Cooper's m.o.

[Dick Allen]

Isn't Maddon anti-cutter?

[Dick Allen]

If we couldn't get more for him than the value of a comp pick then it's extremely unlikely he's going to get even Edwin Jackson money because that would mean every other team saw the red flags and the collapse coming & wouldn't give up anything useful for him.

2 exremely different markets, also he was on a roll, as was the team, unless you blow that comp pick away, it makes little sense to give in. The reports were the offers were like for Leake.

 

I really don't know why the guy or guys they could have ultimately traded him for are sure all stars, amd the comp pick will peak in Winston Salem, but if that is how you choose to look at everything, we have a different idea of entertainment.

[Balta1701]

2 exremely different markets, also he was on a roll, as was the team, unless you blow that comp pick away, it makes little sense to give in. The reports were the offers were like for Leake.

 

I really don't know why the guy or guys they could have ultimately traded him for are sure all stars, amd the comp pick will peak in Winston Salem, but if that is how you choose to look at everything, we have a different idea of entertainment.

How many people in this thread treat the comp pick as the next sure fire Spencer Adams? I think it's 100% fair to be down on it and to point out that there's a good chance whoever the comp pick is, if there even is one, will never do as much as Adams has already done and to keep pointing that out. The average fWAR of comp picks, as pointed out in this thread, over their career, is 2, meaning probably more than 1/2 of them produce less than that.

 

I would take a guy established at AAA over an unnamed comp pick almost any time. And that doesn't even factor in the fact that a guy at AAA or AA can help us within a year or two while a comp pick won't even be in our system until next year and could take 5 years to get to the bigs, if that even happens. So if you're looking for those, it's nice, but it's a long-term rebuilding asset, not something that helps in the near future.

 

And if the team was so on a roll that you believed in them enough after 7 wins against 2 of the worse teams in the AL, then you should have added something to the roster to help it.

 

Then again, the old lesson of "You're never as good as you look when you're on a roll and you're never as bad as you look when your'e in your worst slump" seems to be another of those lessons our FO has failed to learn.

[harkness99]

Focusing too much on cutter caused his fastball to not be ready out of Spring Training? Also, I've said all year his mechanics are different than last season. He's pitching less over the top, which has caused his splitter to not have the same movement from last year.

 

No way in helllll that cooper or any of the coaching staff takes a pitcher with the track record of Shark and fooks with his delivery or process...

 

This is a highly thought of starter... like taking steph curry and saying "Were going to change your jumpshot."

 

With a young pitcher or a struggling guy.. I could see it.

 

But its a sucker play to think that Shark being bad is because they tried to re-make him or some BS like that...

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Focusing too much on cutter caused his fastball to not be ready out of Spring Training? Also, I've said all year his mechanics are different than last season. He's pitching less over the top, which has caused his splitter to not have the same movement from last year.

 

If you listen to the interviews with the Sox minor leaguers, and with guys like Chris Sale, the White Sox pitching mantra is always stand tall and pitch downhill. They don't really try to drop guys angles, they try to keep their arms up high.

[LDF]

How many people in this thread treat the comp pick as the next sure fire Spencer Adams? I think it's 100% fair to be down on it and to point out that there's a good chance whoever the comp pick is, if there even is one, will never do as much as Adams has already done and to keep pointing that out. The average fWAR of comp picks, as pointed out in this thread, over their career, is 2, meaning probably more than 1/2 of them produce less than that.

 

I would take a guy established at AAA over an unnamed comp pick almost any time. And that doesn't even factor in the fact that a guy at AAA or AA can help us within a year or two while a comp pick won't even be in our system until next year and could take 5 years to get to the bigs, if that even happens. So if you're looking for those, it's nice, but it's a long-term rebuilding asset, not something that helps in the near future.

 

And if the team was so on a roll that you believed in them enough after 7 wins against 2 of the worse teams in the AL, then you should have added something to the roster to help it.

 

Then again, the old lesson of "You're never as good as you look when you're on a roll and you're never as bad as you look when your'e in your worst slump" seems to be another of those lessons our FO has failed to learn.

 

i think the talent level is slowly improving.... i made an update for some comp pick last yr and wanted to see how they are doing. they are pretty good.

 

so would that mean next yr draft, the comp picks then be doing the same.... no. but according to the baseball expert, next yr draft pool will be better but will it also be deeper in the pool???

 

donnie dewees of the scrubs, Tyler Nevin col, Chris Shaw sfo. i think you got my point.

 

no offense intended.

[Dick Allen]

How many people in this thread treat the comp pick as the next sure fire Spencer Adams? I think it's 100% fair to be down on it and to point out that there's a good chance whoever the comp pick is, if there even is one, will never do as much as Adams has already done and to keep pointing that out. The average fWAR of comp picks, as pointed out in this thread, over their career, is 2, meaning probably more than 1/2 of them produce less than that.

 

I would take a guy established at AAA over an unnamed comp pick almost any time. And that doesn't even factor in the fact that a guy at AAA or AA can help us within a year or two while a comp pick won't even be in our system until next year and could take 5 years to get to the bigs, if that even happens. So if you're looking for those, it's nice, but it's a long-term rebuilding asset, not something that helps in the near future.

 

And if the team was so on a roll that you believed in them enough after 7 wins against 2 of the worse teams in the AL, then you should have added something to the roster to help it.

 

Then again, the old lesson of "You're never as good as you look when you're on a roll and you're never as bad as you look when your'e in your worst slump" seems to be another of those lessons our FO has failed to learn.

Haven't you b****ed about losing the second and third round picks in this past draft? The comp pick will be better. If it is as worthless as you claim, this dream of your about building through the draft makes zero sense. You complain from both sides. It apparently is your hobby.

[Kyyle23]

How many people in this thread treat the comp pick as the next sure fire Spencer Adams? I think it's 100% fair to be down on it and to point out that there's a good chance whoever the comp pick is, if there even is one, will never do as much as Adams has already done and to keep pointing that out. The average fWAR of comp picks, as pointed out in this thread, over their career, is 2, meaning probably more than 1/2 of them produce less than that.

 

I would take a guy established at AAA over an unnamed comp pick almost any time. And that doesn't even factor in the fact that a guy at AAA or AA can help us within a year or two while a comp pick won't even be in our system until next year and could take 5 years to get to the bigs, if that even happens. So if you're looking for those, it's nice, but it's a long-term rebuilding asset, not something that helps in the near future.

 

And if the team was so on a roll that you believed in them enough after 7 wins against 2 of the worse teams in the AL, then you should have added something to the roster to help it.

 

Then again, the old lesson of "You're never as good as you look when you're on a roll and you're never as bad as you look when your'e in your worst slump" seems to be another of those lessons our FO has failed to learn.

 

On the flip side you treat this pick like its a piece of s*** that you want no part of. It's a lottery ticket and hopefully you find someone that can develop rather quickly and become a contributor.

 

 

And save me the story about how you don't trust the people making the pick. I know

[Balta1701]

On the flip side you treat this pick like its a piece of s*** that you want no part of. It's a lottery ticket and hopefully you find someone that can develop rather quickly and become a contributor.

 

 

And save me the story about how you don't trust the people making the pick. I know

Actually the guys doing the picks have done pretty darn well with the pitching lately, but that doesn't make it less than a lottery ticket.

[Balta1701]

Haven't you b****ed about losing the second and third round picks in this past draft? The comp pick will be better. If it is as worthless as you claim, this dream of your about building through the draft makes zero sense. You complain from both sides. It apparently is your hobby.

So based on your strong endorsement of this pick you think that signing Robertson and Cabrera was a clear mistake right? Because the priority must be accumulating draft picks? Otherwise you're doing the same thing you accuse me of.

 

What I would say, and have said from the start, is that the draft pick is a poor exchange for a player. If you've got a guy already at AAA who looks to have a shot at the big leagues, reasonable age for that level, that's worth more to me than a sandwich pick. I'll take a first round pick over a generic AAA player unless they look really solid, but a sandwich pick is worth less than that. It shouldn't go into your calculation of "do we trade this group of players for a pitcher near free agency" because even if it works out it won't impact your roster for another year. It should barely register on your radar for making a deadline deal, because if you can't get better value than that at the deadline then the rest of the league wants nothing to do with that player.

 

It's nice, if you're accumulating a bunch of them it can help your roster in a few years, and it's the kind of thing you should try to accumulate more of if you're going through a 3-4 year rebuilding process. Somehow I don't think you're going to endorse doing that.

[LDF]

Actually the guys doing the picks have done pretty darn well with the pitching lately, but that doesn't make it less than a lottery ticket.

 

i totally agree.... my point is, the overall talent is getting better. it is still a gamble, but with good scouting as the sox have been doing, i can see how they may get a real serviceable player.

 

Corey Zangari, look at this selection and look at how he is tearing it up so far..... great scouting and great selection.

[Kyyle23]

Actually the guys doing the picks have done pretty darn well with the pitching lately, but that doesn't make it less than a lottery ticket.

 

And a AAA player is certainly not the guarantee you are trying to convince everyone it is. I would much rather get a player in the top two rounds than get some AAA player a team is trying to ditch in order to put this version of Samardzija in their rotation

[LDF]

So based on your strong endorsement of this pick you think that signing Robertson and Cabrera was a clear mistake right? Because the priority must be accumulating draft picks? Otherwise you're doing the same thing you accuse me of.

 

What I would say, and have said from the start, is that the draft pick is a poor exchange for a player. If you've got a guy already at AAA who looks to have a shot at the big leagues, reasonable age for that level, that's worth more to me than a sandwich pick. I'll take a first round pick over a generic AAA player unless they look really solid, but a sandwich pick is worth less than that. It shouldn't go into your calculation of "do we trade this group of players for a pitcher near free agency" because even if it works out it won't impact your roster for another year. It should barely register on your radar for making a deadline deal, because if you can't get better value than that at the deadline then the rest of the league wants nothing to do with that player.

 

It's nice, if you're accumulating a bunch of them it can help your roster in a few years, and it's the kind of thing you should try to accumulate more of if you're going through a 3-4 year rebuilding process. Somehow I don't think you're going to endorse doing that.

 

you got a point. i think there has to be a fine line between both ways. using the draft pool to rebuild or replenish the org and using the fa to pick and choice the necessary pieces needed to make the team stronger, esp with the lack of depth this team is lacking.

 

on i look at it this way, this team is in a flux situation, they have the players that can do wonders and the sox can't wait for the org to produce the necessary players. so it has not choice to go into the fa rt. while at the same time still building up the farm.

 

so this is why i say it is a fine line to maintain doing it right.

[LDF]

This is false. The current CBA makes it more than a lottery ticket. It's a financial allotment.

 

All winter, and past that really, you complained about losing picks due to signing Cabrera/Robertson and how it was going to set the organization back. Now when there is a potential compensation available, a pick that is more valuable than the 2nd/3rd picks lost, then the QO comp is basically worthless. There is no consistency in your thought process, just consistency in the complaining. You're like a politician who banks off of people's short term memories and flip flops to suit your agenda. Your agenda: b****ing about this organization like they owe you something.

 

i like the idea of stirring the pot. to get more conversation going.

 

that is my opinion.

[Balta1701]

This is false. The current CBA makes it more than a lottery ticket. It's a financial allotment.

 

All winter, and past that really, you complained about losing picks due to signing Cabrera/Robertson and how it was going to set the organization back. Now when there is a potential compensation available, a pick that is more valuable than the 2nd/3rd picks lost, then the QO comp is basically worthless. There is no consistency in your thought process, just consistency in the complaining. You're like a politician who banks off of people's short term memories and flip flops to suit your agenda. Your agenda: b****ing about this organization like they owe you something.

I've got some good archived ones on this one.

 

Melky Cabrera signing thread:

The draft pick doesn't worry me nearly as much as his Terrible, nearly Viciedo bad 2013.

 

As far as I can tell I don't mention the draft in the Robertson signing thread.

 

Here's a few from the Samardzija trade thread:

Like I said before, the calculus for me is that the value of Tim Anderson or Marcus Semien, guys who have already made it to high levels in the minors >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the value of a 2nd round pick.

 

2nd round picks are nice, I wouldn't give them up flippantly, but a 2nd round pick who even winds up in a system's top 5 is pretty rare, let alone a 2nd round pick who makes the big leagues. The draft is that big of a gamble. We got really lucky with a guy who fell & was still singable last year, and even then he's years away from AAA.

 

Re: Ervin Santana or Jon Lester:

All of them require draft pick compensation, but compared to trading Anderson for Samardszija and then signing him to a 9 figure deal, all of those seem like better options.

 

Re: Shields instead of Samardzija:

IMO, if we're willing to spend what it takes to extend him, go sign Shields, keep the player we'd trade, and sacrifice a 2nd round pick that is much less likely to be a contributor. Yeah you get a guy who is older, but you keep the high minor league player and frankly Shields has for much of his career been a better pitcher than Samardzija.

 

Samardzija thread, Nov. 29:

Anyone in the org who has been named, Semien or Anderson, is a guy who could help us right now and in the long term.

 

A qualifying offer pick, a 2nd rounder, has a very poor chance of even getting to AA, or even reaching as far as Semien has gotten. On top of that, our 2nd rounder this year is probably 4-ish years away. A 2nd rounder in 2017 is someone we might think about seeing in 2020-2021.

 

This is not a help in rebuilding. A comp pick is a tiny value compared to a AA level minor leaguer or a guy who is close to reaching the big leagues. They're years away and if they were going to be present in the near future they'd be a first rounder.

 

None of this makes a case to me about this being anything other than a huge rebuilding setback and a very poor idea. "We can spend the money next year" is accurate but it's just silly - why give up a guy who could contribute to our roster for 6 years for a sandwich pick and 1 year of a #3 pitcher if you're not 100% ready to compete this year?

 

If we'd spent $70 million on Victor Martinez and $100 million on Hanley Ramirez to fill our corner OF spot, fine, Samardija would fit with that. That's "all in, we're winning this year". Instead, giving up guys we have long term control over for a sandwich pick, that's backwards.

 

A prospect who has already reached AA (Anderson) and should be in most MLB top 50 lists or a prospect who has already gotten to the big leagues (Semien) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> a 2nd round pick.

 

I could probably add more >>> and still be accurate.

 

Early in samardzija thread:

The value of a comp pick is so far behind the value of a guy who is 1-2 years away from potentially reaching the big leagues that it really shouldn't factor into your thinking. At the very least you'd be talking about a guy 5 years away. If you can't sign him long term, you can't do that trade.

 

From the thread where we were talking about extending Samardzija:

IMO, a "comp pick" is now at the point of being dramatically overrated, at least here. If you give me the choice between a comp pick and a guy at AA putting up moderately good but not spectacular numbers and ask me which one is more likely to be a big leaguer/put up >1 WAR in their career, I'll absolutely 100% say the AA guy.

 

Something like 50% of the guys in those rounds look weak by the time they're even in the lower minors and never improve. Another big chunk is lost at the jump to AA. Then there are some who get injured. Only a fraction of comp picks ever get to the point that Ravelo or Phegley got to. Then there are guys like Phegley who get a callup and fall flat.

 

Teams are able to stack the deck somewhat by the fact that the MLB draft has so many rounds. If you have 19 picks after the first round, and they vary from having 10% chances to make the bigs down to 1% chances in round 20, you've got a good chance to pull a big leaguer out of those rounds every year and if you're good at it or lucky maybe more than one, but adding in an extra pick with a tiny chance of making the bigs doesn't change that.

Just to stress a point...saying "People are dramatically overrating the value of a comp pick" is not equal to saying that was a bad move. That is instead to point out that a comp pick has very poor value compared with, for example, keeping the pitcher around, and if we walk away with only a comp pick that's like finding a quarter on the sidewalk. Nice, but not likely to make a long term difference in your life.

 

They made the trade because they wanted him this year and were willing to spend a heckuva lot more than I thought they would be to do it. The comp pick shouldn't even enter into that discussion, you made the trade because you wanted that player more than the other guys. Similarly, it should barely register on the list of things you care about whether you're deciding to sign him long term. What should matter for that is how he performs, whether he's worth the contract, whether we can afford it, and whether we're still looking to spend this level/be competitive for the next few years. The comp pick is negligible compared to that.

 

That sounds a whole lot like me in this thread.

 

The one you will find me caring about is the 2014 "Draft pick countdown thread" where we were watching the record of the team, because I really don't like giving away 1st round picks. I can't get Google to pull that link up because I don't remember the title, but in there you can find me asking them to keep track of where we are relative to the 10th pick because I didn't want to lose a 1st rounder. Outside the 1st round, I think people are way-overvaluing the picks.