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Importance of a Top Draft Pick


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QUOTE (Soxfest @ Sep 11, 2015 -> 02:09 PM)
The ONLY reason draft picks have been better is change in CBA. Sox would still be drafting the cheapest player possible, nobody spent less 5 years prior to CBA change than the Sox.

Well, another big reason is that we've been under .500 for 4 of the last 5 seasons, including a top 3 pick. Top 15 picks help too.

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Sep 11, 2015 -> 06:24 PM)
In that framework, yes, you want BPA and not positional need. You never draft for positional need, at least not in like the first 10 rounds (late in the draft you do end up going for evening out depth to a certain extent). So whether or not your team needs pitching or catching or shortstops, you draft the most valuable overall players you can. And it isn't primarily because of trading - it is just the nature of baseball and that even good prospects typically take a few years to reach the majors and your team needs will change in the interim. It isn't like football or basketball.

 

now with that.... i can understand and now everything falls in place in my little world.

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QUOTE (Soxfest @ Sep 11, 2015 -> 01:09 PM)
The ONLY reason draft picks have been better is change in CBA. Sox would still be drafting the cheapest player possible, nobody spent less 5 years prior to CBA change than the Sox.

 

If that were the case, why aren't they still drafting the cheapest player possible?

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QUOTE (Soxfest @ Sep 11, 2015 -> 01:09 PM)
The ONLY reason draft picks have been better is change in CBA. Sox would still be drafting the cheapest player possible, nobody spent less 5 years prior to CBA change than the Sox.

 

 

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 11, 2015 -> 01:12 PM)
Well, another big reason is that we've been under .500 for 4 of the last 5 seasons, including a top 3 pick. Top 15 picks help too.

 

Also, the Sox are spending near, at or above their limit in the new system now. So really the whole trope about the Sox being cheap is just not accurate any longer. Hasn't been for a number of years, really.

 

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QUOTE (Soxfest @ Sep 11, 2015 -> 02:28 PM)

Reason is it is slotted you knew the answer before you asked.

 

 

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Sep 11, 2015 -> 02:33 PM)
They could still draft cheaper if they wanted to, even when slotted. To save money. They haven't.

 

It has absolutely nothing to do with slotting. There is no floor to slotting. They don't have to spend that money. The only penalties are for going over, not under.

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Probably because someone with a spreadsheet convinced JR that spending money on draft picks will often save you money in the long run. Baseball has changed rapidly in the last 5 years home grown talent gets locked up. The best talents never reach FA and the mediocre vets that do reach FA are so expensive and not "sure things: thus it's incredibly variant and silly to rely on them for wins.

 

Mediocre talents Panda, Hanley and even La Roche and Melky are what you can buy on the FA market. Mike Trout isn't walking through that door. Hell, neither is Albert Belle.

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QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Sep 11, 2015 -> 03:01 PM)
Probably because someone with a spreadsheet convinced JR that spending money on draft picks will often save you money in the long run. Baseball has changed rapidly in the last 5 years home grown talent gets locked up. The best talents never reach FA and the mediocre vets that do reach FA are so expensive and not "sure things: thus it's incredibly variant and silly to rely on them for wins.

 

Mediocre talents Panda, Hanley and even La Roche and Melky are what you can buy on the FA market. Mike Trout isn't walking through that door. Hell, neither is Albert Belle.

Yet the Cubs are the envy of a lot of Soxtalk, and besides Schwarber and Bryant, how many of their own draft picks dot their roster? I am pretty sure the White Sox have more of their own picks on theirs and what they do is wrong.

Edited by Dick Allen
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 11, 2015 -> 03:28 PM)
Yet the Cubs are the envy of a lot of Soxtalk, and besides Schwarber and Bryant, how many of their own draft picks dot their roster? I am pretty sure the White Sox have more of their own picks on theirs and what they do is wrong.

 

Well, they've gotten a combined 11.7 fWAR out of Rizzo, Schwarber and Byrant. Rizzo I will lump in there as homegrown 'cause Theo drafted him and then smartly traded for him when he took the job. That's an excellent foundation. I'd be absolutely thrilled if Rodon, Sanchez, Saladino, Trayce etc give the Sox even 3/4 of that production next year.

 

They deserve a ton of praise of those picks and the development. It's hard to parse out what is more important id'ing the talent or developing it but it's fairly clear they do both better than the Sox at the moment.

 

They've also made some incredibly savvy trades -- akin to the Avi deal except they actually got good players like Russel.

 

Looking at their fangraphs page Cubs fans should be ready for some big time regression next year. IMO they look a lot like the 2014 Mariners with over 2/3 the roster blowing through their median case scenario.

 

That said, compared to the Sox they are ballin' out with home grown studs. They haven't even gotten anything from Soler or Baez and both those guys could easily give them 4-6 fWAR next year combined. If so, then well there goes that negative regression from other roster spots.

 

It's hard to over state how badly the Sox whiffed (so far) with Avi. I was high on him but FFS he's not even close to an average starter right now. He's got one more year to produce anything. If not, just another Viciedo.

Edited by chitownsportsfan
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QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 11, 2015 -> 03:50 PM)
You should go BPA in the first round. Then after that is when you start playing the underslot/overslot game to make sure you have the money to sign everyone.

 

I think LDF saw everyone talking about BPA in last years thread but it was simply about round 1.

 

I think the rule is "there is no hard and fast rule". North Sider nailed it earlier I think you have to evaluate each pick holistically with the goal at the end of having a good draft. Sometimes things really fall into place and a guy like Rodon or even Adams falls and you sure as hell make sure you have enough money to sign them even if it means going underslot later rounds.

 

 

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 11, 2015 -> 03:28 PM)
Yet the Cubs are the envy of a lot of Soxtalk, and besides Schwarber and Bryant, how many of their own draft picks dot their roster? I am pretty sure the White Sox have more of their own picks on theirs and what they do is wrong.

 

Not every team gets those offers like that either.

 

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Sep 12, 2015 -> 12:44 PM)
Sox need San Diego and Boston to outplay them. They're currently in line for the 11th spot. They're a 1/2 game ahead of both Boston and San Diego.

and will the Sox use that protected pick an sign a FA? I'm not sure if there's much of a difference in picking from the 10th, 11th or 12th pick otherwise

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 13, 2015 -> 09:12 PM)
I hope not. Stay away from free agents with QO's attached.

If we were in a complete rebuild I would agree but the way they're going about it a decent FA signing wouldn't hurt as long as we have a protected top 10 pick. To be honest the only guy I'd be interested in is Heyward and he's gonna cost more than the Sox will spend I think, so it's most likely a moot point.

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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 06:57 AM)
For me personally, I want them to finish with a top ten pick so it gives them the option to sign a guy with a QO without giving up a first rounder. Of course, that doesn't mean they will but it at least gives them an option.

 

I agree, if we get a top 10 pick and our 1st rounder is protected, I definitely go after Heyward. He fits everything that this team is not good at and is still young and can be part of the core of this team.

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Shame the Sox OF is so crowded. As another member has mentioned, Gerardo Parra would be a great fit for the Sox with his defense, speed, base stealing and no QO. Parra #1 and Eaton #2 setting the table would be awesome. Parra CF, Eaton LF Thompson RF Avi DH, Melky as a rotating outfielder and LaRoche grabs some bench. Would prefer to trade Melky and LaRoche but I think that's highly doubtful.

 

One can dream right?

Edited by BlackSox13
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