My/Your Off Season Plan

[BlackSox13]

II think this kills any hopes Sox fans have of Cespedes.

 

"I'm not thinking about a contract, but I do know that I will be looking for a contract that is six years or more, has to be six years or more. We'll see what happens."

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/150363314/yo...6-year-contract

 

Not trying to rain on anyone's hopes, just keeping trying to keep things in perspective is all. Signing a 30 year old FA to a six year 100M+ contract is not a typical Sox move and understably so.

Edited September 19, 2015 by BlackSox13

[hi8is]

"I'm not thinking about a contract, but I do know that I will be looking for a contract that..."

I'm not thinking of getting laid, but I do know that she'll have to be....

 

Uh - yea.

[GreenSox]

Cespedes is just what KW ordered: low OBP off of a career year.

 

I would consider trading Eaton. He's a clown, but his stats are good and should yield a couple of good players. Trayce can play CF (better than Eaton can).

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Cespedes is just what KW ordered: low OBP off of a career year.

 

I would consider trading Eaton. He's a clown, but his stats are good and should yield a couple of good players. Trayce can play CF (better than Eaton can).

What do you mean by that?

 

I think the argument could be made that Eaton has been the second best hitter on the team all season long. He is also cost controlled and fairly young, so I'm not sure why the Sox would want to move him.

[GreenSox]

get rid of the following -

 

Daniel Webb

Avisail Garcia

MIke Olt

Tyler Flowers

Micah Johnson

 

None are MLB caliber players.

 

Flame on...

Micah, Garcia and possibly Webb are. Now Cooper and Ventura jettisoned Micah in May, despite him being the 2nd to best hitter on the team at the time, and the opinions of those 2 luminaries at talent evaluation will probably be honored. Avi is hitting about the same as Melky, with less clowning.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Nothing at all wrong with "Clowning" (and I don't mean that as a pun to my avatar). I want more players who are out there having fun and helping keep the team loose. Look at KC, that team is full of clowns. San Fran has a lot of fun. The Boston team that won the WS the year after losing 90 games. The Tigers with Muggy.

 

I suppose I understand people thinking they shouldn't be "clowning" when the team is doing so bad, but c'mon. They're out there 162 days hanging your head and mopping (and not being yourself) is not the way to do it.

 

Send in the Clowns.

Edited September 19, 2015 by scs787

[nickofypres]

Didn't we try that was Swisher, and Hall? That team did make the playoffs, but Swisher's welcome was worn out.

[kitekrazy]

You don't think the Sox would have taken better care of him than the Yanks last year? If they were to spend that kinda money on starter from Japan, they'd ease him in and they would be good at it.

 

In Japan the season is shorter and probably some other things that makes playing in MLB a shortened career.

The Sox were willing to pay Fukadome more money than the Cubs. There was only one Japanese player that ever stood out in MLB. I think they are high risk.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Didn't LaRoche sign a 2 year $25 mil contract? Each year $12.5?

 

12 this year 13 next

[Balta1701]

All right, Saturday morning, have work to do later but can do this now. The good news for me is, I expect the White Sox front office to do the exact opposite of this, so I'll never have to be evaluated on whether or not this plan would work.

 

Most important thing we must do this offseason: get the front office's heads out of their collective you know wheres and end the "denial" that is permeating this organization.

 

Your team is this bad. Your team is well under .500 and deserves to be. This is not bad luck. If you played this season again, you would not suddenly have things go better. If you replayed this season, some things would possibly go better, perhaps Samardzija avoids the terrible August, but some things would be likely to go worse - the unbelievably ridiculous health that we saw this year (0 starters on the disabled list at any time) is going to be almost impossible to repeat. Your team played the way it was capable of, maybe even better.

 

Your organization is still weak. You have little depth, you have even less big league experience for the depth you do have, and you have way too many holes to fill for that little depth to make you competitive next year.

 

So let's act like it.

 

If the roster is this weak, the right response is patience. Some guys will work their way into big leaguers if given the shot, other guys will work their way out of the league. The only way to tell which marginal guys can become long-term options is to play them and find out. If you're playing a number of marginal guys to see what they can do, then it also makes no sense to go for "1 year/expensive/soon to be FA" options. Evidence for that is 2015.

 

Furthermore, even if they're very talented, if you're relying on rookies or young kids in important spots, many of them are likely to struggle their first year. That should be expected. If you say "we're going all in this year and we're going to make the playoffs on the back of Avi Garcia, Erik Johnson, and Tim Anderson", and those guys aren't ready to carry your team, you will fail.

 

Finally, if you try to fill multiple holes on the FA market, you should expect multiple busts, especially if you are not competing for the top-level guys. Mid-level, high priced free agents hit the market because their teams think there are better ways to spend their money. They know these guys and they're willing to let them walk. That is a message right there. Do not do the "KW Special" that we've tried the last 10 years of signing mid-level free agents to big time money. It has not worked at all for us. Scott Linebrink, Adam Dunn, Jeff Keppinger, Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, Zach Duke, the failures on the FA market are not happening by accident, this is a systematic mistake and if we keep trying it, the mistake is likely to repeat again. The only one who has performed anywhere near his contract is Robertson. These high-priced, mid-level free agents are unusually likely to bust. They may not all bust, you may get some that work out, but if you're trying to build a roster out of them you will fail.

 

 

 

So take those philosophies and turn them into a 2016 format. We are not a competitive roster in 2016. We'd need a huge amount to go right in 2016 to be competitive. It could happen but it is extremely unlikely and we need to act like it.

 

1. Decline Alexei Ramirez's option. Tyler Saladino is your starting 2016 SS. He may very well fail badly at this job but if he does then late in the season Tim Anderson takes the job from him. If his defense carries over from 3b, his bat just has to be "adequate" for him to be a really valuable player. If his bat could be adequate, he could turn into a valuable enough piece that maybe we think of moving Anderson elsewhere, where defense isn't quite as important (3b?) or we look at Saladino as a valuable trade chip late in the season. If his bat is inadequate, at least he'll hopefully catch the ball a few times and get experience enough to count on him as a utility player.

 

If Anderson hits well enough and plays solid D in the first half at Charlotte, he comes up and takes that job at the deadline unless Saladino genuinely earns it. Tim Anderson should not reach the big leagues before July under any circumstance other than "major injuries in the big leagues leaving no choice"

 

That position is first on the list because the option we have there is overpaid & a key part of the problem. Picking up his option is the top "we're going to compete again this year darnit!" move. It's the top signal of this team remaining in denial about 2015. That's why I expect them to do the exact opposite.

 

2. Once Alexei is gone, you have more money to play with. The first place to gamble it is on offering Samardzija the QO. With Alexei's money cleared you can gamble on that to try to get the draft pick, if he comes back it genuinely screws with your rotation, but with Alexei out of the way that doesn't ruin your ability to make other moves.

 

3. Starting rotation: listen on offers for Quintana and others but it darn well better be a franchise-changing offer. If you don't get that, there is zero hurry to move him or Sale. Sale is signed for 4 more seasons, Quintana for 5. If you would laugh at a trade proposal if it were offered for Sale, then it's just about as bad if offered for Quintana.

 

My ideal starting rotation next year: Sale, Q, Rodon, Johnson, Danks. Rodon needs to work to get up to 200 innings, if he gets in that range and works on the change then in 2017 we're talking a formidable top 3. EJ I'm still unsure about, but he 100% needs to pitch in the big leagues next year. I expect him to struggle some because he's still basically a rookie, but if he pitches through those struggles successfully in 2016 then he's a strong piece in a great rotation in 2017. Danks is finally in his last year and he is gradually improving. If he takes a step back early next season, Fulmer and Montas could be called up midseason to replace him. If he takes another small step forwards in the first half, he becomes tradeable at the deadline. If Danks can make himself a trade candidate, move him. Veteran LH starter at the end of his contract ought to return something if he's pitching well. If Danks is moved, that clears a spot for Montas, Fulmer, Beck, or whoever earns a callup in the first half. Getting another kid 2 months in the big leagues is going to be important if we want to compete in 2017 - that experience won't make them a veteran but it will make them better in 2017.

 

Outfield: listen on trade offers but your 2016 outfield is Melky, Eaton, Garcia, and Trayce. Eaton's defense was down in 2015 but he should continue to play CF until we're sure that's a long-term trend and we verify he can't play there any more. Only way to know that is to play him there. Melky is too expensive to bench or discard or replace, he has to play. If he's this bad then eventually he'll wind up benched, but that won't happen next year. Garcia could be replaceable but even I think he has talent enough to improve and I'll buy the "his first full season" a bit. Play him as a starter again next year and see if there is a lightswitch that turns on. If you're playing Garcia next year, you're admitting right away you don't think you have a competitive roster.

 

Trayce should regularly replace Eaton and Melky particularly against LH pitching. Work him in and get him regular PAs to see what he does with them, but be selective. Don't throw him out there every day unless he forces you to.

 

2b: Micah and Sanchez both make the roster out of ST. Play them both. See who earns the spot. I wouldn't count on either of them if I were saying "This team will compete in 2016" but since I'm not saying that I would support playing the kids. Both of them have earned shots in the show and neither of them has earned the role of starter. Hopefully one of them will.

 

C: Flowers is still weak there and he'll be a 2nd year arb player next year. Without a better option we need to offer arbitration there, also will keep Sale happy, but we need to be hunting for a long-term option there. I don't know where we'll find that, that's the downside of the denial at this year's trade deadline and last offseason, we have holes like that. We could put up with Flowers there on a competitive team if we were strong elsewhere, but we're not and he'll be too expensive to offer arbitration in 2017 unless his bat improves a lot. Let Soto walk. Find a backup catcher, not sure if that's Brantley or not. Don't pay for anyone expensive here...yet. Look for smart deals the whole year, if you can flip a reliever or a Saladino or a Danks for a catching candidate at the deadline that would be spectacular.

 

3b: a mess. We have Olt under team control and I have no problem playing him but I also have little confidence in him until he proves me wrong. We have nothing in the minors that can take this spot in the near future. Do not spend big money on this spot, but it seems wise to spend some. The position is also spectacularly bad on the FA market and I'm not trading a big piece for someone like Frazier who is a soon-to-be FA. The Rockies are unlikely to move Arenado even though a Q/A deal might make general sense for both - would listen but won't obsess if the Rockies aren't up for it. Here we need a stopgap. Look at Olt and see if he can find the talent that made him a top prospect a few years ago. Also look at someone like either David Freese or Maicer Izturis (they're literally about the best FA options available) to spell them. If you bring in Freese and he has a bad first half or gets injured, no big deal, if he has a good first half you should look to move him at the deadline. If his FA value turns out to be a bargain (which is still unlikely on this market) perhaps you look at someone like Ian Desmond as a 2-year deal and consider moving him over to see if he can recover, but that's only if he's cheap and I don't buy that he will be.

 

Bullpen: still pretty weak and unreliable. Duke is basically unmovable but has to pitch since money invested. Only real piece we lose is Albers, shame we didn't move him to a contender but again what can you do. With Jones back, bullpen can at least cover the 7-8-9 innings. Manager really likes being able to have someone to take the blame for blowing games other than him, so even if Robertson is overpaid, fine we'll call that a luxury to keep the manager happy and won't move him unless we're blown away by a really good offer. Offer arbitration to Jones. I'm iffy on offering arbitration to Jennings, would depend on what the actual coaching staff thinks of him. If he's gone, then look for a similar cheap lefty pickup. Guys like Petricka, Webb, Putnam could very well be more reliable next year. Continue looking for castoff options & see what the minor leagues may add within a year.

 

DH spot: We're not cutting LaRoche. He's got to play. Maybe he can have another good first half and make himself moveable for a tiny bit of salary savings at the deadline. Make use of TT in your lineup when there's a lefty on the mound, LaRoche should only face lefty starters if Abreu is hurt and he has to play 1b that day. Maybe you also put Sanchez or Olt at DH against some lefty starters to get them more PAs. Clear that contract out and we'll see what happens as the year goes on.

 

This team is not competitive in 2016 and even several big FA moves won't get us there. Selling off Anderson or Montas right now for short-term options is as bad of an idea as the Samardzija trade was last year. Play out the season and hopefully we can go from having "7 holes in our lineup" and "a rotation with several inexperienced guys" to "3-4 holes in our lineup" and "a rotation with 1 inexperienced guy behind 4 strong ones" for 2017. A smart trade or two will help, but NOTHING that is expensive or nearing FA should be even considered as a return for anything. The Free Agent and trade markets will still exist after 2016, but you can't rebuild an entire roster that way unless someone does something stupid and helps you out.

 

If some things go right then maybe you undo the damage you did in-between the 2014 and 2015 seasons. If somehow everything went right then you could even celebrate and be competitive, but if you weren't, at least you haven't damaged your ability to compete in 2017.

 

/Rant

[GreenSox]

Nothing at all wrong with "Clowning" (and I don't mean that as a pun to my avatar). I want more players who are out there having fun and helping keep the team loose. Look at KC, that team is full of clowns. San Fran has a lot of fun. The Boston team that won the WS the year after losing 90 games. The Tigers with Muggy.

 

I suppose I understand people thinking they shouldn't be "clowning" when the team is doing so bad, but c'mon. They're out there 162 days hanging your head and mopping (and not being yourself) is not the way to do it.

 

Send in the Clowns.

Clowning is taking bad reads in the OF. running the bases poorly, playing lousy defense. Making mental mistakes.

 

It's no surprise that Melky was quoted the other day saying he thought Ventura is a great manager and he loved playing for him. Ventura has coddled veteran clowning for his entire tenure. (the young players better not clown)

 

 

I substantively agree with Balta's plan, although I would be a little more aggressive in seeing what's out there for Sale or Quintana.

Edited September 19, 2015 by GreenSox

[BlackSox13]

I'm not thinking of getting laid, but I do know that she'll have to be....

 

Uh - yea.

Are you constipated again hi8is? Might I recommend more Adam LaRoche in your diet? The beard should help keep things more regular for you.

 

I was just looking at 2016 salaries for the Sox and there are some significant pay raises which I believe is what Balta has been trying to point out. I knew there were some raises coming but they are more significant than I had previously thought.

 

For anyone interested, have a look: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q5c...pub?output=html

 

Namely I'm looking at Sale, Q, Eaton, Abreu and to a lesser extent Robertson, LaRoche and Duke. Add those player salary increases up and it comes out to an addition 15M added to the 2016 payroll. This does not include arbitration cases such as Avi, Flowers and Soto.

 

Here's the scary part. Let's say the Sox buy out Alexei and walk away from Shark bait. The savings from those two players is easily cancelled out by salary increases and arbitration cases.

 

I just do not see the Sox making even one significant FA splash this off season without somehow trading salary.

 

2016 is going to be the developmental year that 2015 should have been. It is what it is I guess.

[coco1997]

Maybe it's just my emotions getting the better of me after his last couple starts but I'm no longer completely opposed to the idea of trading Chris Sale. If I'm Rick Hahn I take a good hard look at the state of our offense and see what a team like the Dodgers would give us for Chris. The Dodgers are maybe the only team, IMO, who would be willing to part with anything close to Sale's value. Of course, I would also want a high-end pitching prospect in the deal to somewhat offset the blow of losing Sale.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Maybe it's just my emotions getting the better of me after his last couple starts but I'm no longer completely opposed to the idea of trading Chris Sale. If I'm Rick Hahn I take a good hard look at the state of our offense and see what a team like the Dodgers would give us for Chris. The Dodgers are maybe the only team, IMO, who would be willing to part with anything close to Sale's value. Of course, I would also want a high-end pitching prospect in the deal to somewhat offset the blow of losing Sale.

Seager and Urias would have to be included, minimum, but I wouldn't be surprised if Hahn needed another top prospect or two as well.

 

But I still think it's unlikely that the Sox move him at all. We can't discount the past 4 years of dominance because of 2 or 3 bad starts in a lost season.

[coco1997]

Seager and Urias would have to be included, minimum, but I wouldn't be surprised if Hahn needed another top prospect or two as well.

 

But I still think it's unlikely that the Sox move him at all. We can't discount the past 4 years of dominance because of 2 or 3 bad starts in a lost season.

 

I understand that. However, I believe Sale is our best means to totally revitalize our lineup for the foreseeable future. The problem is, if you screw up a Sale trade, you set this franchise back many years.

[LDF]

I understand that. However, I believe Sale is our best means to totally revitalize our lineup for the foreseeable future. The problem is, if you screw up a Sale trade, you set this franchise back many years.

 

while that idea is has some merits, it really doesn't matter. it will be the FO who will decide.

 

however for this discussion, i disagree on trading sale. finding the pieces.... that will come down from the sox owners on what they want the salary cap to be. for me, some hard trades of key prospects will be involve, which i hate.

 

so many ways to fix this problem.

[LDF]

All right, Saturday morning, have work to do later but can do this now. The good news for me is, I expect the White Sox front office to do the exact opposite of this, so I'll never have to be evaluated on whether or not this plan would work.

 

Most important thing we must do this offseason: get the front office's heads out of their collective you know wheres and end the "denial" that is permeating this organization.

 

Your team is this bad. Your team is well under .500 and deserves to be. This is not bad luck. If you played this season again, you would not suddenly have things go better. If you replayed this season, some things would possibly go better, Samardzija can't possibly be this bad again, but some things would be likely to go worse - the unbelievably ridiculous health that we saw this year (0 starters on the disabled list at any time) is going to be almost impossible to repeat. Your team played the way it was capable of, maybe even better.

 

Your organization is still weak. You have little depth, you have even less big league experience for the depth you do have, and you have way too many holes to fill for that little depth to make you competitive next year.

 

So let's act like it.

 

If the roster is this weak, the right response is patience. Some guys will work their way into big leaguers if given the shot, other guys will work their way out of the league. The only way to tell which marginal guys can become long-term options is to play them and find out. If you're playing a number of marginal guys to see what they can do, then it also makes no sense to go for "1 year/expensive/soon to be FA" options. Evidence for that is 2015.

 

Furthermore, even if they're very talented, if you're relying on rookies or young kids in important spots, many of them are likely to struggle their first year. That should be expected. If you say "we're going all in this year and we're going to make the playoffs on the back of Avi Garcia, Erik Johnson, and Tim Anderson", and those guys aren't ready to carry your team, you will fail.

 

Finally, if you try to fill multiple holes on the FA market, you should expect multiple busts, especially if you are not competing for the top-level guys. Mid-level, high priced free agents hit the market because their teams think there are better ways to spend their money. They know these guys and they're willing to let them walk. That is a message right there. Do not do the "KW Special" that we've tried the last 10 years of signing mid-level free agents to big time money. It has not worked at all for us. Scott Linebrink, Adam Dunn, Jeff Keppinger, Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, Zach Duke, the failures on the FA market are not happening by accident, this is a systematic mistake and if we keep trying it, the mistake is likely to repeat again. The only one who has performed anywhere near his contract is Robertson. These high-priced, mid-level free agents are unusually likely to bust. They may not all bust, you may get some that work out, but if you're trying to build a roster out of them you will fail.

 

 

 

So take those philosophies and turn them into a 2016 format. We are not a competitive roster in 2016. We'd need a huge amount to go right in 2016 to be competitive. It could happen but it is extremely unlikely and we need to act like it.

 

1. Decline Alexei Ramirez's option. Tyler Saladino is your starting 2016 SS. He may very well fail badly at this job but if he does then late in the season Tim Anderson takes the job from him. If his defense carries over from 3b, his bat just has to be "adequate" for him to be a really valuable player. If his bat could be adequate, he could turn into a valuable enough piece that maybe we think of moving Anderson elsewhere, where defense isn't quite as important (3b?) or we look at Saladino as a valuable trade chip late in the season. If his bat is inadequate, at least he'll hopefully catch the ball a few times and get experience enough to count on him as a utility player.

 

If Anderson hits well enough and plays solid D in the first half at Charlotte, he comes up and takes that job at the deadline unless Saladino genuinely earns it. Tim Anderson should not reach the big leagues before July under any circumstance other than "major injuries in the big leagues leaving no choice"

 

That position is first on the list because the option we have there is overpaid & a key part of the problem. Picking up his option is the top "we're going to compete again this year darnit!" move. It's the top signal of this team remaining in denial about 2015. That's why I expect them to do the exact opposite.

 

2. Once Alexei is gone, you have more money to play with. The first place to gamble it is on offering Samardzija the QO. With Alexei's money cleared you can gamble on that to try to get the draft pick, if he comes back it genuinely screws with your rotation, but with Alexei out of the way that doesn't ruin your ability to make other moves.

 

3. Starting rotation: listen on offers for Quintana and others but it darn well better be a franchise-changing offer. If you don't get that, there is zero hurry to move him or Sale. Sale is signed for 4 more seasons, Quintana for 5. If you would laugh at a trade proposal if it were offered for Sale, then it's just about as bad if offered for Quintana.

 

My ideal starting rotation next year: Sale, Q, Rodon, Johnson, Danks. Rodon needs to work to get up to 200 innings, if he gets in that range and works on the change then in 2017 we're talking a formidable top 3. EJ I'm still unsure about, but he 100% needs to pitch in the big leagues next year. I expect him to struggle some because he's still basically a rookie, but if he pitches through those struggles successfully in 2016 then he's a strong piece in a great rotation in 2017. Danks is finally in his last year and he is gradually improving. If he takes a step back early next season, Fulmer and Montas could be called up midseason to replace him. If he takes another small step forwards in the first half, he becomes tradeable at the deadline. If Danks can make himself a trade candidate, move him. Veteran LH starter at the end of his contract ought to return something if he's pitching well. If Danks is moved, that clears a spot for Montas, Fulmer, Beck, or whoever earns a callup in the first half. Getting another kid 2 months in the big leagues is going to be important if we want to compete in 2017 - that experience won't make them a veteran but it will make them better in 2017.

 

Outfield: listen on trade offers but your 2016 outfield is Melky, Eaton, Garcia, and Trayce. Eaton's defense was down in 2015 but he should continue to play CF until we're sure that's a long-term trend and we verify he can't play there any more. Only way to know that is to play him there. Melky is too expensive to bench or discard or replace, he has to play. If he's this bad then eventually he'll wind up benched, but that won't happen next year. Garcia could be replaceable but even I think he has talent enough to improve and I'll buy the "his first full season" a bit. Play him as a starter again next year and see if there is a lightswitch that turns on. If you're playing Garcia next year, you're admitting right away you don't think you have a competitive roster.

 

Trayce should regularly replace Eaton and Melky particularly against LH pitching. Work him in and get him regular PAs to see what he does with them, but be selective. Don't throw him out there every day unless he forces you to.

 

2b: Micah and Sanchez both make the roster out of ST. Play them both. See who earns the spot. I wouldn't count on either of them if I were saying "This team will compete in 2016" but since I'm not saying that I would support playing the kids. Both of them have earned shots in the show and neither of them has earned the role of starter. Hopefully one of them will.

 

C: Flowers is still weak there and he'll be a 2nd year arb player next year. Without a better option we need to offer arbitration there, also will keep Sale happy, but we need to be hunting for a long-term option there. I don't know where we'll find that, that's the downside of the denial at this year's trade deadline and last offseason, we have holes like that. We could put up with Flowers there on a competitive team if we were strong elsewhere, but we're not and he'll be too expensive to offer arbitration in 2017 unless his bat improves a lot. Let Soto walk. Find a backup catcher, not sure if that's Brantley or not. Don't pay for anyone expensive here...yet. Look for smart deals the whole year, if you can flip a reliever or a Saladino or a Danks for a catching candidate at the deadline that would be spectacular.

 

3b: a mess. We have Olt under team control and I have no problem playing him but I also have little confidence in him until he proves me wrong. We have nothing in the minors that can take this spot in the near future. Do not spend big money on this spot, but it seems wise to spend some. The position is also spectacularly bad on the FA market and I'm not trading a big piece for someone like Frazier who is a soon-to-be FA. The Rockies are unlikely to move Arenado even though a Q/A deal might make general sense for both - would listen but won't obsess if the Rockies aren't up for it. Here we need a stopgap. Look at Olt and see if he can find the talent that made him a top prospect a few years ago. Also look at someone like either David Freese or Maicer Izturis (they're literally about the best FA options available) to spell them. If you bring in Freese and he has a bad first half or gets injured, no big deal, if he has a good first half you should look to move him at the deadline. If his FA value turns out to be a bargain (which is still unlikely on this market) perhaps you look at someone like Ian Desmond as a 2-year deal and consider moving him over to see if he can recover, but that's only if he's cheap and I don't buy that he will be.

 

Bullpen: still pretty weak and unreliable. Duke is basically unmovable but has to pitch since money invested. Only real piece we lose is Albers, shame we didn't move him to a contender but again what can you do. With Jones back, bullpen can at least cover the 7-8-9 innings. Manager really likes being able to have someone to take the blame for blowing games other than him, so even if Robertson is overpaid, fine we'll call that a luxury to keep the manager happy and won't move him unless we're blown away by a really good offer. Offer arbitration to Jones. I'm iffy on offering arbitration to Jennings, would depend on what the actual coaching staff thinks of him. If he's gone, then look for a similar cheap lefty pickup. Guys like Petricka, Webb, Putnam could very well be more reliable next year. Continue looking for castoff options & see what the minor leagues may add within a year.

 

DH spot: We're not cutting LaRoche. He's got to play. Maybe he can have another good first half and make himself moveable for a tiny bit of salary savings at the deadline. Make use of TT in your lineup when there's a lefty on the mound, LaRoche should only face lefty starters if Abreu is hurt and he has to play 1b that day. Maybe you also put Sanchez or Olt at DH against some lefty starters to get them more PAs. Clear that contract out and we'll see what happens as the year goes on.

 

This team is not competitive in 2016 and even several big FA moves won't get us there. Selling off Anderson or Montas right now for short-term options is as bad of an idea as the Samardzija trade was last year. Play out the season and hopefully we can go from having "7 holes in our lineup" and "a rotation with several inexperienced guys" to "3-4 holes in our lineup" and "a rotation with 1 inexperienced guy behind 4 strong ones" for 2017. A smart trade or two will help, but NOTHING that is expensive or nearing FA should be even considered as a return for anything. The Free Agent and trade markets will still exist after 2016, but you can't rebuild an entire roster that way unless someone does something stupid and helps you out.

 

If some things go right then maybe you undo the damage you did in-between the 2014 and 2015 seasons. If somehow everything went right then you could even celebrate and be competitive, but if you weren't, at least you haven't damaged your ability to compete in 2017.

 

/Rant

 

excellent rant. very comprehensive in looking at things at the season end.

 

rel nice.

[Balta1701]

Maybe it's just my emotions getting the better of me after his last couple starts but I'm no longer completely opposed to the idea of trading Chris Sale. If I'm Rick Hahn I take a good hard look at the state of our offense and see what a team like the Dodgers would give us for Chris. The Dodgers are maybe the only team, IMO, who would be willing to part with anything close to Sale's value. Of course, I would also want a high-end pitching prospect in the deal to somewhat offset the blow of losing Sale.

I'm not opposed to the idea any longer either, but I also don't think that it's possible that any team is going to give up what it would actually take to get him with this many years left on his contract. Therefore I would listen, but I think it's more likely that if we move him, it would be ~the end of the 2017 season when he's got about 2 years left, possibly middle of the 2018 season, assuming that the White Sox don't figure out a way to salvage things before then.

 

If the White Sox can somehow salvage this mess before then, holding Chris Sale at the top of a strong rotation in 2017-2019 is not a bad thing.

[LDF]

I'm not opposed to the idea any longer either, but I also don't think that it's possible that any team is going to give up what it would actually take to get him with this many years left on his contract. Therefore I would listen, but I think it's more likely that if we move him, it would be ~the end of the 2017 season when he's got about 2 years left, possibly middle of the 2018 season, assuming that the White Sox don't figure out a way to salvage things before then.

 

If the White Sox can somehow salvage this mess before then, holding Chris Sale at the top of a strong rotation in 2017-2019 is not a bad thing.

 

you got a great point.

 

let me add on a rhetorical question.

 

how many times does a team gets lucky and get a true #1 type of a sp..... while it is done, i don't or can't see the team trading sale away.

[Balta1701]

you got a great point.

 

let me add on a rhetorical question.

 

how many times does a team gets lucky and get a true #1 type of a sp..... while it is done, i don't or can't see the team trading sale away.

It's entirely possible we have a 2nd one sitting in our rotation right now. Hell, with some work we might have drafted another one last year too.

[LDF]

It's entirely possible we have a 2nd one sitting in our rotation right now. Hell, with some work we might have drafted another one last year too.

 

if.... you know what i think on the big if. there is too much of an unknown with if.

the one in the rotation, that is several if on his command and development.

the one we drafted last yr, if he can still develop as a starter.

 

i want to go with the known element.

 

sale is a known #1 sp.

 

sorry for my little rant.

[coco1997]

As far as the Dodgers go, I'd also ask for catcher Austin Barnes along with Seager and whatever else the package for Sale would include.

[Bob Sacamano]

I don't think you even think about trading Sale until July 2017. If he is pitching like an ace, the Sox are bad and the state of the system is no better than it is now, then I think you have to be realist about dealing him. He'd be more than a rental and would still bring back a lot. Obviously not as much as now since he still has 4 full seasons under his deal. Talk of trading him now is kinda silly (unless we get blown away by an offer).

[greg775]

All right, Saturday morning, have work to do later but can do this now. The good news for me is, I expect the White Sox front office to do the exact opposite of this, so I'll never have to be evaluated on whether or not this plan would work.

 

Most important thing we must do this offseason: get the front office's heads out of their collective you know wheres and end the "denial" that is permeating this organization.

 

Your team is this bad. Your team is well under .500 and deserves to be. This is not bad luck. If you played this season again, you would not suddenly have things go better. If you replayed this season, some things would possibly go better, Samardzija can't possibly be this bad again, but some things would be likely to go worse - the unbelievably ridiculous health that we saw this year (0 starters on the disabled list at any time) is going to be almost impossible to repeat. Your team played the way it was capable of, maybe even better.

 

Your organization is still weak. You have little depth, you have even less big league experience for the depth you do have, and you have way too many holes to fill for that little depth to make you competitive next year.

 

So let's act like it.

 

If the roster is this weak, the right response is patience. Some guys will work their way into big leaguers if given the shot, other guys will work their way out of the league. The only way to tell which marginal guys can become long-term options is to play them and find out. If you're playing a number of marginal guys to see what they can do, then it also makes no sense to go for "1 year/expensive/soon to be FA" options. Evidence for that is 2015.

 

Furthermore, even if they're very talented, if you're relying on rookies or young kids in important spots, many of them are likely to struggle their first year. That should be expected. If you say "we're going all in this year and we're going to make the playoffs on the back of Avi Garcia, Erik Johnson, and Tim Anderson", and those guys aren't ready to carry your team, you will fail.

 

Finally, if you try to fill multiple holes on the FA market, you should expect multiple busts, especially if you are not competing for the top-level guys. Mid-level, high priced free agents hit the market because their teams think there are better ways to spend their money. They know these guys and they're willing to let them walk. That is a message right there. Do not do the "KW Special" that we've tried the last 10 years of signing mid-level free agents to big time money. It has not worked at all for us. Scott Linebrink, Adam Dunn, Jeff Keppinger, Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, Zach Duke, the failures on the FA market are not happening by accident, this is a systematic mistake and if we keep trying it, the mistake is likely to repeat again. The only one who has performed anywhere near his contract is Robertson. These high-priced, mid-level free agents are unusually likely to bust. They may not all bust, you may get some that work out, but if you're trying to build a roster out of them you will fail.

 

 

 

So take those philosophies and turn them into a 2016 format. We are not a competitive roster in 2016. We'd need a huge amount to go right in 2016 to be competitive. It could happen but it is extremely unlikely and we need to act like it.

 

1. Decline Alexei Ramirez's option. Tyler Saladino is your starting 2016 SS. He may very well fail badly at this job but if he does then late in the season Tim Anderson takes the job from him. If his defense carries over from 3b, his bat just has to be "adequate" for him to be a really valuable player. If his bat could be adequate, he could turn into a valuable enough piece that maybe we think of moving Anderson elsewhere, where defense isn't quite as important (3b?) or we look at Saladino as a valuable trade chip late in the season. If his bat is inadequate, at least he'll hopefully catch the ball a few times and get experience enough to count on him as a utility player.

 

If Anderson hits well enough and plays solid D in the first half at Charlotte, he comes up and takes that job at the deadline unless Saladino genuinely earns it. Tim Anderson should not reach the big leagues before July under any circumstance other than "major injuries in the big leagues leaving no choice"

 

That position is first on the list because the option we have there is overpaid & a key part of the problem. Picking up his option is the top "we're going to compete again this year darnit!" move. It's the top signal of this team remaining in denial about 2015. That's why I expect them to do the exact opposite.

 

2. Once Alexei is gone, you have more money to play with. The first place to gamble it is on offering Samardzija the QO. With Alexei's money cleared you can gamble on that to try to get the draft pick, if he comes back it genuinely screws with your rotation, but with Alexei out of the way that doesn't ruin your ability to make other moves.

 

3. Starting rotation: listen on offers for Quintana and others but it darn well better be a franchise-changing offer. If you don't get that, there is zero hurry to move him or Sale. Sale is signed for 4 more seasons, Quintana for 5. If you would laugh at a trade proposal if it were offered for Sale, then it's just about as bad if offered for Quintana.

 

My ideal starting rotation next year: Sale, Q, Rodon, Johnson, Danks. Rodon needs to work to get up to 200 innings, if he gets in that range and works on the change then in 2017 we're talking a formidable top 3. EJ I'm still unsure about, but he 100% needs to pitch in the big leagues next year. I expect him to struggle some because he's still basically a rookie, but if he pitches through those struggles successfully in 2016 then he's a strong piece in a great rotation in 2017. Danks is finally in his last year and he is gradually improving. If he takes a step back early next season, Fulmer and Montas could be called up midseason to replace him. If he takes another small step forwards in the first half, he becomes tradeable at the deadline. If Danks can make himself a trade candidate, move him. Veteran LH starter at the end of his contract ought to return something if he's pitching well. If Danks is moved, that clears a spot for Montas, Fulmer, Beck, or whoever earns a callup in the first half. Getting another kid 2 months in the big leagues is going to be important if we want to compete in 2017 - that experience won't make them a veteran but it will make them better in 2017.

 

Outfield: listen on trade offers but your 2016 outfield is Melky, Eaton, Garcia, and Trayce. Eaton's defense was down in 2015 but he should continue to play CF until we're sure that's a long-term trend and we verify he can't play there any more. Only way to know that is to play him there. Melky is too expensive to bench or discard or replace, he has to play. If he's this bad then eventually he'll wind up benched, but that won't happen next year. Garcia could be replaceable but even I think he has talent enough to improve and I'll buy the "his first full season" a bit. Play him as a starter again next year and see if there is a lightswitch that turns on. If you're playing Garcia next year, you're admitting right away you don't think you have a competitive roster.

 

Trayce should regularly replace Eaton and Melky particularly against LH pitching. Work him in and get him regular PAs to see what he does with them, but be selective. Don't throw him out there every day unless he forces you to.

 

2b: Micah and Sanchez both make the roster out of ST. Play them both. See who earns the spot. I wouldn't count on either of them if I were saying "This team will compete in 2016" but since I'm not saying that I would support playing the kids. Both of them have earned shots in the show and neither of them has earned the role of starter. Hopefully one of them will.

 

C: Flowers is still weak there and he'll be a 2nd year arb player next year. Without a better option we need to offer arbitration there, also will keep Sale happy, but we need to be hunting for a long-term option there. I don't know where we'll find that, that's the downside of the denial at this year's trade deadline and last offseason, we have holes like that. We could put up with Flowers there on a competitive team if we were strong elsewhere, but we're not and he'll be too expensive to offer arbitration in 2017 unless his bat improves a lot. Let Soto walk. Find a backup catcher, not sure if that's Brantley or not. Don't pay for anyone expensive here...yet. Look for smart deals the whole year, if you can flip a reliever or a Saladino or a Danks for a catching candidate at the deadline that would be spectacular.

 

3b: a mess. We have Olt under team control and I have no problem playing him but I also have little confidence in him until he proves me wrong. We have nothing in the minors that can take this spot in the near future. Do not spend big money on this spot, but it seems wise to spend some. The position is also spectacularly bad on the FA market and I'm not trading a big piece for someone like Frazier who is a soon-to-be FA. The Rockies are unlikely to move Arenado even though a Q/A deal might make general sense for both - would listen but won't obsess if the Rockies aren't up for it. Here we need a stopgap. Look at Olt and see if he can find the talent that made him a top prospect a few years ago. Also look at someone like either David Freese or Maicer Izturis (they're literally about the best FA options available) to spell them. If you bring in Freese and he has a bad first half or gets injured, no big deal, if he has a good first half you should look to move him at the deadline. If his FA value turns out to be a bargain (which is still unlikely on this market) perhaps you look at someone like Ian Desmond as a 2-year deal and consider moving him over to see if he can recover, but that's only if he's cheap and I don't buy that he will be.

 

Bullpen: still pretty weak and unreliable. Duke is basically unmovable but has to pitch since money invested. Only real piece we lose is Albers, shame we didn't move him to a contender but again what can you do. With Jones back, bullpen can at least cover the 7-8-9 innings. Manager really likes being able to have someone to take the blame for blowing games other than him, so even if Robertson is overpaid, fine we'll call that a luxury to keep the manager happy and won't move him unless we're blown away by a really good offer. Offer arbitration to Jones. I'm iffy on offering arbitration to Jennings, would depend on what the actual coaching staff thinks of him. If he's gone, then look for a similar cheap lefty pickup. Guys like Petricka, Webb, Putnam could very well be more reliable next year. Continue looking for castoff options & see what the minor leagues may add within a year.

 

DH spot: We're not cutting LaRoche. He's got to play. Maybe he can have another good first half and make himself moveable for a tiny bit of salary savings at the deadline. Make use of TT in your lineup when there's a lefty on the mound, LaRoche should only face lefty starters if Abreu is hurt and he has to play 1b that day. Maybe you also put Sanchez or Olt at DH against some lefty starters to get them more PAs. Clear that contract out and we'll see what happens as the year goes on.

 

This team is not competitive in 2016 and even several big FA moves won't get us there. Selling off Anderson or Montas right now for short-term options is as bad of an idea as the Samardzija trade was last year. Play out the season and hopefully we can go from having "7 holes in our lineup" and "a rotation with several inexperienced guys" to "3-4 holes in our lineup" and "a rotation with 1 inexperienced guy behind 4 strong ones" for 2017. A smart trade or two will help, but NOTHING that is expensive or nearing FA should be even considered as a return for anything. The Free Agent and trade markets will still exist after 2016, but you can't rebuild an entire roster that way unless someone does something stupid and helps you out.

 

If some things go right then maybe you undo the damage you did in-between the 2014 and 2015 seasons. If somehow everything went right then you could even celebrate and be competitive, but if you weren't, at least you haven't damaged your ability to compete in 2017.

 

/Rant

 

Good rant. Appreciate the effort. However, you have so much status quo in there. Besides getting rid of Alexei, which I agree must happen, we're keeping the same guys and I sense a historically bad season on the South Side. Well, at least 95-100 losses. Devil's advocate would say a team with decent starting pitching as the Sox have, ought to be able to have a record at least as good as the Twins this season with some tinkering. Tinkering means getting upgrades at catcher and third and dumping Melky and LaRoche somehow.

[Balta1701]

Good rant. Appreciate the effort. However, you have so much status quo in there. Besides getting rid of Alexei, which I agree must happen, we're keeping the same guys and I sense a historically bad season on the South Side. Well, at least 95-100 losses. Devil's advocate would say a team with decent starting pitching as the Sox have, ought to be able to have a record at least as good as the Twins this season with some tinkering. Tinkering means getting upgrades at catcher and third and dumping Melky and LaRoche somehow.

You're right...the White Sox could probably get to where the Twins are if they get lucky and they spend a ton of money and sacrifice the guys moving up to AAA next year, but what's the point of that? What are the odds that the AL only takes 84 wins to get to the 2nd wild card next year? If you have to blow another $20 million beyond this season and trade away Montas and other top parts from our minor leagues to to get to 83 wins and above .500, it's a normal season where you're 5 wins outside of the wild card, then you fall back out of the playoff picture the next year because you spent everything you could to win in 2016 and have no money left to add any more and you've depleted your minor leagues again, what good is that? If you spend $25 million more and then someone gets hurt and you wind up at 77 wins because of it, what kind of a mess have you made? You know what that looks like? The 2015 season. It looks like the same mess.

 

Yes, there's a lot of status quo. That's the mess we made in 2015. We now have a combination of "guys who are unmovable" and "guys who we can't have any confidence in until they give us a reason to". We can have more excitement, but we're going to have to move someone we don't want to move to make that happen. Either empty the minors on something or move Quintana, Sale, or Rodon. Frankly, I'd rather sit on my hands than trade those guys given that I don't think we'll get the kind of overwhelming deal I'd need to part with them.

 

Anyway, I don't expect the White Sox to do any of that, because of the opening of that post. They're in denial. It permeates this season. "If we keep playing like this we'll be right there at the end" said Rick Hahn at the deadline after a short, unsustainable streak against 2 teams playing terrible ball at the time. We were in denial last offseason - "guys will develop because we say they will" "Defense doesn't matter" "there's no risk on the FA market". We were in denial all season "we're just waiting for a winning streak" "We'll be right there at the end". We were in denial at both trade deadlines - there's no reason whatsoever why Soto and Albers should still be on this roster right now, they should have been turned into something by August 31 even after the Samardzija mistake.

 

And I expect that after the WS ends we'll continue that denial and pick up Alexei's option. We will insist "oh this was just an abberration, if we try the same thing again it's sure to work this time". We will spend some money on mid-level free agents, get our usual "happy press conference", make a big trade of some sort to get ourselves in the news, and it'll probably work just about as well.

 

Maybe they'll prove me wrong and actually act like they understand "this is your real roster". Maybe they'll get lucky and "doing the same thing" will actually somehow work - people do win the lottery sometimes, but it's not a long-term, successful solution for financial planning. But if their "try to win in 2016 moves" work and push them to 85 wins, it'll probably be the worst thing for the org because it'll put them right where they were in 2013 - in denial about how weak their roster really is and convinced that they don't need to worry about a sustainable future path.