My/Your Off Season Plan

[Sox Fan In Husker Land]

Cincy would never give up Frazier for your offer. We'd have to include much better players than Avi/Micah/Danish.

 

I know that is why I said and another and try to avoid giving up 1 of Anderson, Fulmer, Montas, Adams, Michalczewski if possible. He's only got 1 year left so the Reds can't expect a kings ransom for him. I would throw in Montas or Adams for him if need be. Fulmer and Anderson off limits.

 

[OmarComing25]

Nah Frazier isn't worth it. His bat has disappeared since the All-Star Break, he'll be 30 next year and the Reds would want a ransom for him.

[VAfan]

I think to have an offseason plan, you have to decide first what the Sox' flaws are. Only then can you start thinking about how to fix them.

 

FIRST = CHANGE THE MANAGER

 

The biggest flaw the White Sox have, IMHO, is having Robin Ventura as their manager. Do managers have WAR? Of course not. But maybe they should. Because some manager help their teams win more games than perhaps they should, while other managers clearly cost their teams wins. I think Robin Ventura is in the latter camp. I would put his negative WAR as somewhere around 5-8 games. If you can get that number back to 0, that's like adding a top player in terms of wins. Unfortunately, I don't have any replacement manager names at the tip of my tongue. But if you want to fix the Sox, that's where I'd start.

 

Why do I think Ventura has to go? Because ever since his first year, when he was the anti-Ozzie and had a veteran club that could run itself, the Sox have been HORRIBLE at fundamental baseball. Terrible at fielding. As bad or worse on the basepaths. Can't execute basic plays. These things scream out at me as managerial problems. Well-disciplined teams have good managers. Ozzie used to tweak him to no end, but Buck Showalter is an example of an excellent manager who gets a lot out of his clubs. I'd say he's worth positive WAR. Joe Maddon is also very good. The minute he took the reins of the Cubs, he said they were a playoff team, and he's proven himself right.

 

SECOND = ADD POWER

 

The second biggest flaw I think the Sox have is a lack of power. The White Sox are tied with Cleveland for next to last in HR in the AL, one ahead of KC. KC can get away with a lack of power because of the ballpark they play in. Even though US Cellular is now ranked below average in HR, I think you can't have a winning team at the Cell without much more power than the Sox have.

 

We have 1 HR threat in our lineup -- Jose Abreu -- and his HR numbers are down from a year ago. That just won't cut it. Ideally, I'd like to see at least 3 guys with 30+ HR. If you can't get that, you need Abreu plus at least two more guys who can average 30 between them.

 

This is one reason why I don't see the value for the Sox breaking the bank for Jason Heyward. Yes, he had 27 HRs one year. But he's really a 12-15 HR guy, which is what we're getting from Garcia in RF already. Sure, the D is much much better, as is the OBP, but I just don't see how his bat is going to make that big of a difference in our current lineup.

 

If I had to pick two guys to add to the Sox, it would be Josh Donaldson and Yoenis Cespedes. Obviously, we can't actually add Donaldson. But he's the type of player you would want to add, at a position of need for the Sox. Cespedes could be a possibility, if the Mets don't re-sign him. Though you'd have to decide if he'd produce at the same level he did when he switched leagues and went on a total tear, hitting 17 HR in 51 games for the Mets v. 18 HR in 102 games for the Tigers.

 

The point is, the Sox desperately need a power boost if they want to win more games. 3B, DH, and RF cry out for power bats. Other positions might as well, but the Sox seen pretty set in LF, CF, and 1B, and have gotten 18 HR combined out their catchers, plus 10 at SS.

 

THIRD = REDUCE THE OUTS

 

The Sox have the worst OPS in the AL. This is because we are last in Slugging percentage. Which is why we need to ADD POWER. But we're also horrible in OBP, at .308. This is near the bottom of the league. We have only 2 regulars above .319 OBP -- Eaton and Abreu. And we have a ton of regulars, or guys who've received significant ABs, who are below .300 OBP -- Sanchez, Saladino, Gillaspie, Beckham, Flowers, Ramirez, and LaRoche. That's your infield for most of the year.

 

SUMMARY ON THE HITTING SIDE

 

I'll come back to pitching. On the offensive side, the Sox have two players worth keeping and building around -- Jose Abreu and Adam Eaton. Melky Cabrera is also probably locked in for the next two years with his contract. The rest are up due for upgrades.

 

FOURTH = DON'T DECIMATE THE PITCHING

 

A lot of the ideas in this post suggest the Sox trade pitching to bolster their offense. Seems like robbing Peter to pay Paul. Not sure it's a solution.

 

Assuming the Sox tender a QO to the Shark and he turns it down, that leaves the Sox with Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Danks, and all the guys they have in the minors, led perhaps by Eric Johnson. In other words, 3 quality starters, an expensive journeyman on the last year of his contract, and a bunch of rookies. I just don't see how you take out Quintana from this equation and stay competitive.

 

On the bullpen side, it's a little easier. Robertson is locked up as the closer, and the Sox have decent depth behind him, with Nate Jones having returned, and Frankie Montas a flame throwing possibility for next year, plus Petricka, Putnam, Duke, Jennings, et al.

 

CONCLUSION

 

I'm not sure it's all going to get fixed in 2016.

 

If we were 1 or 2 guys short, then free agency would make sense, especially if we finish at least 10th worst this year and can protect our first round pick. The problem is, we aren't there.

 

We have 2 regulars who are plus players -- Abreu and Eaton. Cabrera could be a third. Everyone else could be chucked (though Flowers is good for the pitching staff). There isn't enough money in the budget to buy new guys for all of those slots.

 

So what do you do? Not totally sure yet. I'd be looking for bargains. Guys without big names or big contracts, but who have decent to good OBP and SLG numbers. Then perhaps you splurge on one power hitting guy who can help anchor your lineup with Abreu.

 

If I had money to spend, I'd spend it all on offense. I think we can patch together enough on the pitching side if we don't jettison anyone but Shark.

 

That's my initial take.

Edited September 26, 2015 by VAfan

[LDF]

I think to have an offseason plan, you have to decide first what the Sox' flaws are. Only then can you start thinking about how to fix them.

 

FIRST = CHANGE THE MANAGER

 

The biggest flaw the White Sox have, IMHO, is having Robin Ventura as their manager. Do managers have WAR? Of course not. But maybe they should. Because some manager help their teams win more games than perhaps they should, while other managers clearly cost their teams wins. I think Robin Ventura is in the latter camp. I would put his negative WAR as somewhere around 5-8 games. If you can get that number back to 0, that's like adding a top player in terms of wins. Unfortunately, I don't have any replacement manager names at the tip of my tongue. But if you want to fix the Sox, that's where I'd start.

 

Why do I think Ventura has to go? Because ever since his first year, when he was the anti-Ozzie and had a veteran club that could run itself, the Sox have been HORRIBLE at fundamental baseball. Terrible at fielding. As bad or worse on the basepaths. Can't execute basic plays. These things scream out at me as managerial problems. Well-disciplined teams have good managers. Ozzie used to tweak him to no end, but Buck Showalter is an example of an excellent manager who gets a lot out of his clubs. I'd say he's worth positive WAR. Joe Maddon is also very good. The minute he took the reins of the Cubs, he said they were a playoff team, and he's proven himself right.

 

SECOND = ADD POWER

 

The second biggest flaw I think the Sox have is a lack of power. The White Sox are tied with Cleveland for next to last in HR in the AL, one ahead of KC. KC can get away with a lack of power because of the ballpark they play in. Even though US Cellular is now ranked below average in HR, I think you can't have a winning team at the Cell without much more power than the Sox have.

 

We have 1 HR threat in our lineup -- Jose Abreu -- and his HR numbers are down from a year ago. That just won't cut it. Ideally, I'd like to see at least 3 guys with 30+ HR. If you can't get that, you need Abreu plus at least two more guys who can average 30 between them.

 

This is one reason why I don't see the value for the Sox breaking the bank for Jason Heyward. Yes, he had 27 HRs one year. But he's really a 12-15 HR guy, which is what we're getting from Garcia in RF already. Sure, the D is much much better, as is the OBP, but I just don't see how his bat is going to make that big of a difference in our current lineup.

 

If I had to pick two guys to add to the Sox, it would be Josh Donaldson and Yoenis Cespedes. Obviously, we can't actually add Donaldson. But he's the type of player you would want to add, at a position of need for the Sox. Cespedes could be a possibility, if the Mets don't re-sign him. Though you'd have to decide if he'd produce at the same level he did when he switched leagues and went on a total tear, hitting 17 HR in 51 games for the Mets v. 18 HR in 102 games for the Tigers.

 

The point is, the Sox desperately need a power boost if they want to win more games. 3B, DH, and RF cry out for power bats. Other positions might as well, but the Sox seen pretty set in LF, CF, and 1B, and have gotten 18 HR combined out their catchers, plus 10 at SS.

 

THIRD = REDUCE THE OUTS

 

The Sox have the worst OPS in the AL. This is because we are last in Slugging percentage. Which is why we need to ADD POWER. But we're also horrible in OBP, at .308. This is near the bottom of the league. We have only 2 regulars above .319 OBP -- Eaton and Abreu. And we have a ton of regulars, or guys who've received significant ABs, who are below .300 OBP -- Sanchez, Saladino, Gillaspie, Beckham, Flowers, Ramirez, and LaRoche. That's your infield for most of the year.

 

SUMMARY ON THE HITTING SIDE

 

I'll come back to pitching. On the offensive side, the Sox have two players worth keeping and building around -- Jose Abreu and Adam Eaton. Melky Cabrera is also probably locked in for the next two years with his contract. The rest are up due for upgrades.

 

FOURTH = DON'T DECIMATE THE PITCHING

 

A lot of the ideas in this post suggest the Sox trade pitching to bolster their offense. Seems like robbing Peter to pay Paul. Not sure it's a solution.

 

Assuming the Sox tender a QO to the Shark and he turns it down, that leaves the Sox with Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Danks, and all the guys they have in the minors, led perhaps by Eric Johnson. In other words, 3 quality starters, an expensive journeyman on the last year of his contract, and a bunch of rookies. I just don't see how you take out Quintana from this equation and stay competitive.

 

On the bullpen side, it's a little easier. Robertson is locked up as the closer, and the Sox have decent depth behind him, with Nate Jones having returned, and Frankie Montas a flame throwing possibility for next year, plus Petricka, Putnam, Duke, Jennings, et al.

 

CONCLUSION

 

I'm not sure it's all going to get fixed in 2016.

 

If we were 1 or 2 guys short, then free agency would make sense, especially if we finish at least 10th worst this year and can protect our first round pick. The problem is, we aren't there.

 

We have 2 regulars who are plus players -- Abreu and Eaton. Cabrera could be a third. Everyone else could be chucked (though Flowers is good for the pitching staff). There isn't enough money in the budget to buy new guys for all of those slots.

 

So what do you do? Not totally sure yet. I'd be looking for bargains. Guys without big names or big contracts, but who have decent to good OBP and SLG numbers. Then perhaps you splurge on one power hitting guy who can help anchor your lineup with Abreu.

 

If I had money to spend, I'd spend it all on offense. I think we can patch together enough on the pitching side if we don't jettison anyone but Shark.

 

That's my initial take.

 

you did a great job in getting all this done.... well thought out.

 

i hate to say anything today, b/c this is a great post.

[kitekrazy]

you did a great job in getting all this done.... well thought out.

 

i hate to say anything today, b/c this is a great post.

 

Also easier said than done.

 

[LDF]

Also easier said than done.

explain

 

~~~ ok i think you are stating that his plan is easier said than done.

Edited September 26, 2015 by LDF

[Hatchetman]

How are they just going to get better hitters overnight without trading away the pitching?

[kitekrazy]

explain

 

~~~ ok i think you are stating that his plan is easier said than done.

 

His plan. It's not like they tried this before. They get the wrong people (NL veterans and the over 30 crowd).

 

They also lack a leader with some emotion who is a player. I'm not talking about a couple of pitchers who play hardass when there's a potential brawl.

 

[Balta1701]

How are they just going to get better hitters overnight without trading away the pitching?

Unfortunately the A's made one terrible trade last offseason and one solid trade and we somehow wound up on the giving end of the solid trade.

 

Maybe someone will do us the favor that we did Oakland last year.

[Sox Fan In Husker Land]

How are they just going to get better hitters overnight without trading away the pitching?

 

Well the only way to acquire better hitters overnight without trading away pitching would be to sign free agents. Go get Cespedes, Zobrist, Heyward or someone else.

[kitekrazy]

How are they just going to get better hitters overnight without trading away the pitching?

 

They can't. The problem lies with drafting and developing. Maybe LaRoche will be better since this is the first time facing AL pitching. Of course I thought the same about Adam Dunn. Maybe they can find another Abreu in Cuba. I'm amazed they keep the same scouts and instructors in the farm system that provide no results in position players. I think back in the 90's Sox pitchers in the farm system were envied by other organizations. It may be getting to the point that some GMs are wising up and growing your own players works better than free agency. I look at the money the Nationals spent and that's expensive mediocrity.

 

[kitekrazy]

Unfortunately the A's made one terrible trade last offseason and one solid trade and we somehow wound up on the giving end of the solid trade.

 

Maybe someone will do us the favor that we did Oakland last year.

 

Stop trading with Oakland would be a start.

 

[Lillian]

Like it or not, I would guess that the front office is planning to give Olt the inside track to fill the hole at third. It would be very surprising if they expend any resources on another third baseman, in the off season. I'd personally like to see what he could do in a full season, when healthy. He certainly has the power, and has a history of drawing walks. His defense is very solid at the hot corner.

Edited September 27, 2015 by Lillian

[Bob Sacamano]

Well the only way to acquire better hitters overnight without trading away pitching would be to sign free agents. Go get Cespedes, Zobrist, Heyward or someone else.

 

I doubt they sign any of those guys. I also doubt they move any of our prospects worth a damn for any hitters. Don't really know how we are going to fill the many holes we have in the lineup.

[LDF]

I doubt they sign any of those guys. I also doubt they move any of our prospects worth a damn for any hitters. Don't really know how we are going to fill the many holes we have in the lineup.

 

i am wondering if the if the sox gets the protected 10 by the end of the season. would they really venture in the fa market???

[Dunt]

Updated offseason list:

 

1.) Extend QO to Samardzija, he rejects it

2.) Trade Quintana, Montas, and Micah for Puig and Barnes

3.) Sign Zobrist

4.) Sign Kazmir

5.) Resign Albers

 

CF Eaton

3B Zobrist

RF Puig

DH Abreu

1B LaRoche

LF Cabrera

C Barnes

2B Sanchez

SS Saladino

 

BE Thompson

BE L. Garcia

BE Flowers

BE A. Garcia?

 

SP Sale

SP Kazmir

SP Rodon

SP Johnson

SP Danks

 

CL Robertson

SU Jones

SU Duke

RP Petricka

RP Putnam

RP Albers

 

 

No picks lost, payroll isn't much higher than it is this season, offense is massively upgraded, Anderson can slide in midseason at SS if he's tearing up AAA, and pitching shouldnt see a massive drop off.

 

[Jose Abreu]

FWIW, Dan Hayes, Tom Fornelli, and Scott Merkin conversed on Twitter last night about the Sox offseason. They speculated a signing of Zobrist, Cespedes, and they argued over whether trading Quintana could net a fair return.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Dodgers wouldn't have much interest in Micah. They already have Peraza who has similar tools but younger and without the defensive struggles.

[Dunt]

Dodgers wouldn't have much interest in Micah. They already have Peraza who has similar tools but younger and without the defensive struggles.

 

Yup, forgot about that trade. Montas for Barnes might actually be an overpay, so 1:1 really wouldnt be out of the question.

[thxfrthmmrs]

FWIW, Dan Hayes, Tom Fornelli, and Scott Merkin conversed on Twitter last night about the Sox offseason. They speculated a signing of Zobrist, Cespedes, and they argued over whether trading Quintana could net a fair return.

 

If we're to go after the Big 3 outfielders, I hope it's Heyward, Upton and Cespedes, in that order. I still think Heyward will hit for more power as he enters his prime, which frankly is the only weakness in his game right now. Cespedes could be a head case sometimes and we already have too many guys who couldn't draw a walk in this lineup.

[Y2Jimmy0]

FWIW, Dan Hayes, Tom Fornelli, and Scott Merkin conversed on Twitter last night about the Sox offseason. They speculated a signing of Zobrist, Cespedes, and they argued over whether trading Quintana could net a fair return.

 

 

I was in that conversation with them. My handle is @JamesFox917. Merkin thought there was no shot of Cespedes for over $100 million.

[LDF]

FWIW, Dan Hayes, Tom Fornelli, and Scott Merkin conversed on Twitter last night about the Sox offseason. They speculated a signing of Zobrist, Cespedes, and they argued over whether trading Quintana could net a fair return.

 

while i like the idea of anything to improve the team, esp if the sox have the protected top 10, i reall hate to be a kill joy or to spout off against the owner on this point.

 

but it comes to the owners and if they are willing to sign any of the top FA's that are out there.

 

what will the the salary available to spend.

 

i really can't see, if the owners allows it,

 

but this is what i would like.

 

sign Heyward for either 3 - 7 yrs. after 3 yr, he can go back into the FA market.

sign Daniel Murphy for 3b

ss - undecided

trade asset for catching prospects.... dodgers or yanks.

Edited September 28, 2015 by LDF

[Y2Jimmy0]

If we're to go after the Big 3 outfielders, I hope it's Heyward, Upton and Cespedes, in that order. I still think Heyward will hit for more power as he enters his prime, which frankly is the only weakness in his game right now. Cespedes could be a head case sometimes and we already have too many guys who couldn't draw a walk in this lineup.

 

 

Cespedes is the only one that won't cost a draft pick. I think there's a slim chance the Sox will sign a QO free agent with a top 10 pick. I think there's zero chance they do it without a top 10 pick.

[Dunt]

Cespedes is the only one that won't cost a draft pick. I think there's a slim chance the Sox will sign a QO free agent with a top 10 pick. I think there's zero chance they do it without a top 10 pick.

 

I think it makes the most sense to keep those picks regardless, sign impact FA (ex. Zobrist & Kazmir) w/o pick compensation attached, and trade from your strength. That way, you improve the major and minor league product with very little additional cost to management.

[LVSoxFan]

I don't think anything done off-season will make a difference if it's only players on the field.

 

Goodbye, Kenny. Goodbye Robin. Hahn I don't know enough about.

 

We need to do a Cubs/Blackhawks reboot. I don't know if that will ever happen while JR is still running the team, but it needs to be done. I'm tired of living off the glory of 2005.