My/Your Off Season Plan

[Dick Allen]

The Astros drafted so well they were able to pass on Kris Bryant and Carlos Rodon.

[Bob Sacamano]

The Astros drafted so well they were able to pass on Kris Bryant and Carlos Rodon.

 

Yeah imagine how good they would be if they had taken those two.

[Dunt]

The fact that they are not blaming the manager means they are blaming the players. I expect a very active winter for the White Sox.

 

That was the way I took Hahn's comments at the end of the season too (blaming both the players and themselves). I think we see much more activity than we expected...not all stuff we will like either.

[Jose Abreu]

The fact that they are not blaming the manager means they are blaming the players. I expect a very active winter for the White Sox.

Everyone is saying this. But the FA market is so weak. I don't see how this offseason can be any more active than last year's.

[southsider2k5]

That was the way I took Hahn's comments at the end of the season too (blaming both the players and themselves). I think we see much more activity than we expected...not all stuff we will like either.

 

With the financial situation, I don't see room for much activity, not if it includes a lot of new spending. Maybe some trades that don't change payroll much.

[ChiSox59]

Ya, I would forego hair, fingernails, a liver, anything, to regularly be nervous in October.

 

Touche.

[Balta1701]

WAR is a counting stat Balta. In those three seasons Sale made 30, 26 and 31 starts, which brings him to a WAR total (counting stat) that is less than his peers that you mentioned.

 

WAR/200 IP, starts/season

 

Kershaw ---------7.02, 31

Sale ------------- 5.49, 29

Scherzer -------- 5.34, 32.67

Kluber -----------5.19, 30

Price ------------- 5.16, 31

Felix -------------4.49, 32

 

I have no problem with you saying Sale isn't a once in a generation pitcher and I agree with you but the argument that there is a several pitchers that have been better than him is silly. He's missed some starts over strains and the team being careful but should he really be punished for that? The several pitchers that you mentioned as better than him, over your preferred sample, have been more effective on a cumulative basis but on a rate basis, Kershaw is the only pitcher who has been better than Sale.

Um, yes, he should be counted as a lesser player for missing starts and I find it hard to believe that I'd ever be asked that. Being able to stay on the mound is an important thing for a pitcher. He's not a better pitcher when he's on the DL or having starts skipped.

 

There are several guys who would immediately appear on the list of "as good as Sale or better" if somehow you gave the right to ignore the fact that guys haven't pitched 220 innings. Matt Harvey even counting this as a recovery year put up 5.9 fWAR/200 IP between 2013 and 2015, but anyone would call me out of my bleeping mind for including him as a pitcher who has clearly been better than Sale over the last 3 years since he kinda missed the whole 2014 season. Jose Fernandez is right there with Sale at 5.44, but he's pitched only 288 innings so no one on Earth would include him. I could probably find others but I have to go teach.

[VAfan]

Um, yes, he should be counted as a lesser player for missing starts and I find it hard to believe that I'd ever be asked that. Being able to stay on the mound is an important thing for a pitcher. He's not a better pitcher when he's on the DL or having starts skipped.

 

There are several guys who would immediately appear on the list of "as good as Sale or better" if somehow you gave the right to ignore the fact that guys haven't pitched 220 innings. Matt Harvey even counting this as a recovery year put up 5.9 fWAR/200 IP between 2013 and 2015, but anyone would call me out of my bleeping mind for including him as a pitcher who has clearly been better than Sale over the last 3 years since he kinda missed the whole 2014 season. Jose Fernandez is right there with Sale at 5.44, but he's pitched only 288 innings so no one on Earth would include him. I could probably find others but I have to go teach.

 

Isn't the problem with this whole debate about how great Chris Sale is that you need a team around him. Whether he's the best pitcher in baseball, or the 5th best, really doesn't matter. For the last 3 years, the White Sox have been out of it early, with no signs that it's going to change any time soon.

 

Yes, we are wasting some great seasons by Sale -- just as the M's have wasted a lot of seasons by King Felix.

 

Meanwhile, we have to watch other pitchers make their fame in the postseason.

[Dunt]

Um, yes, he should be counted as a lesser player for missing starts and I find it hard to believe that I'd ever be asked that. Being able to stay on the mound is an important thing for a pitcher. He's not a better pitcher when he's on the DL or having starts skipped.

 

There are several guys who would immediately appear on the list of "as good as Sale or better" if somehow you gave the right to ignore the fact that guys haven't pitched 220 innings. Matt Harvey even counting this as a recovery year put up 5.9 fWAR/200 IP between 2013 and 2015, but anyone would call me out of my bleeping mind for including him as a pitcher who has clearly been better than Sale over the last 3 years since he kinda missed the whole 2014 season. Jose Fernandez is right there with Sale at 5.44, but he's pitched only 288 innings so no one on Earth would include him. I could probably find others but I have to go teach.

 

Guys, Kershaw is a lesser player because he missed a month of starts last year. Just wanted to put you all on notice.

[Baron]

Everyone is saying this. But the FA market is so weak. I don't see how this offseason can be any more active than last year's.

 

They better be active and more importantly successful. Or I could see more than just Robin getting the boot next year.

[TheFutureIsNear]

Not going to attempt to calculate any #'s or guess salaries, but I think it should be fairly realistic salary cap wise

 

Decline Alexei's option

Tender an offer to shark

DFA LaRoche (maybe some one takes him if we pay some $?)

 

Trade Danks to Dodgers for Van Slyke and a low level minor leaguer

Trade Micah, Beck, Avi, and Danish for Todd Frazier and JJ Hoover

 

Sale

Q

Rodon

Johnson

Bud Norris

 

Robertson

Jones

Duke

Petricka

Hoover

Putnam

James Russel

Montas (starts the year in the pen as the long man, ready to take over if the Norris experiment doesn't work)

 

 

C- Flowers/Soto

1B- Abreu/Van Slyke

2b- Daniel Murphy

SS- Sanchez/Salidino

3B- Todd Frazier

LF- Melky

CF- Eaton

RF- Thompson/Van Slyke/Shuck

Edited October 7, 2015 by TheFutureIsNear

[Lip Man 1]

Don't know if the Dodgers or anybody would want Danks without the Sox paying a major portion of his final year's salary. Don't know if they'd do that.

 

Mark

[Lillian]

Is it really necessary to address all of the so called “holes” on the current Sox roster?

This seems to be a very common approach employed, when we amateur GM’s advocate ways to fix this team.

Very few teams are ever able to build rosters which don’t have any “holes,” especially in the era of soaring salaries and free agency. Any organization with limited resources simply can’t put an above average WAR player at every position.

 

The Sox have playoff caliber pitching, which is the most important component of winning baseball. If they are able to keep the rotation of Sale, Q, Rodon, Danks & Johnson, with Fulmer on his way, and a bullpen of Robertson, Jones, Albers, Duke and Putnam/Petricka, the pitching should have the depth and quality to compete, all the way through the post season.

 

I’d prefer to first address the middle of the order, from which teams normally obtain their offensive production. You all know how critical I think has been the failure to find a solid clean up hitter. This has been a significant issue, ever since Thome left. We all fretted over 3 years of Dunn, and this year’s fiasco with LaRoche. Fixing that problem should be the highest priority. A solid clean up hitter, preferably left handed, could make the first half of the lineup respectable.

 

If a solid two hole hitter can be found, to fill out the top half of the order, the rest of the lineup could consist of average, to below average, offensive players, who contribute on defense. I think the best place to fill the two hole spot is SS. Ramirez is getting too old, and too expensive, and is really not suitable to bat second.

It will probably be at least a year, maybe two, before Anderson is ready. If the front office can find a good defensive short stop, who could be a decent 2 hole hitter, that would allow Abreu to bat 3RD, where he belongs. It would also allow Melky to bat 5TH, which is more suitable. The 2ND spot in the line up doesn't require a great hitter, but at least a guy who can hit behind the runner, on hit and run plays, lay down a bunt, and get on base at a respectable rate. He doesn’t need to hit for a high average, or provide any power. It shouldn’t be that expensive to find an aging veteran, perhaps someone in the last year before free agency, whom they could acquire in a trade, to fill that role.

 

The power bat at clean up would most likely be a DH, thus replacing LaRoche. You know that I don't care what they do with LaRoche. It's a sunken cost.

With just those two holes filled, this offense becomes pretty good, with a solid defense:

 

CF Eaton

SS ?

1B Abreu

DH ?

LF Cabrera

RF Thompson/Garcia

3B Olt

C Flowers/Soto

2B Sanchez

 

Thompson and Garcia could battle for the 3RD outfield spot. Olt is a worthwhile gamble for the potential power he could provide, if he figures it out. His Minor League history suggests that he can take his walks, and play solid defense.

 

Flowers seems to be able to handle the pitching staff, so perhaps that hole can be overlooked.

 

Sanchez could well take another step up in offensive production, and he provides stellar defense at 2ND. Ultimately, I still hope that he can develop into a good 2 hole hitter, which is where he has had his best Minor League success.

 

So, does anyone have an idea who might be that 2 hole hitter at short, or who could be the clean up hitter? At least it's just two holes, not an unrealistic 4 or 5.

Edited October 7, 2015 by Lillian

[caulfield12]

Is it really necessary to address all of the so called “holes” on the current Sox roster?

This seems to be a very common approach employed, when we amateur GM’s advocate ways to fix this team.

Very few teams are ever able to build rosters which don’t have any “holes,” especially in the era of soaring salaries and free agency. Any organization with limited resources simply can’t put an above average WAR player at every position.

 

The Sox have playoff caliber pitching, which is the most important component of winning baseball. If they are able to keep the rotation of Sale, Q, Rodon, Danks & Johnson, with Fulmer on his way, and a bullpen of Robertson, Jones, Albers, Duke and Putnam/Petricka, the pitching should have the depth and quality to compete, all the way through the post season.

 

I’d prefer to first address the middle of the order, from which teams normally obtain their offensive production. You all know how critical I think has been the failure to find a solid clean up hitter. This has been a significant issue, ever since Thome left. We all fretted over 3 years of Dunn, and last year’s fiasco with LaRoche. Fixing that problem should be the highest priority. A solid clean up hitter, preferably left handed, could make the first half of the lineup respectable.

 

If a solid two hole hitter can be found, to fill out the top half of the order, the rest of the lineup could consist of average, to below average, offensive players, who contribute on defense. I think the best place to fill the two hole spot is SS. Ramirez is getting too old, and too expensive, and is really not suitable to bat second.

It will probably be at least a year, maybe two, before Anderson is ready. If the front office can find a good defensive short stop, who could be a decent 2 hole hitter, that would allow Abreu to bat 3RD, where he belongs. It would also allow Melky to bat 5TH, which is more suitable. The 2ND spot in the line up doesn't require a great hitter, but at least a guy who can hit behind the runner, on hit and run plays, lay down a bunt, and get on base at a respectable rate. He doesn’t need to hit for a high average, or provide any power. It shouldn’t be that expensive to find an aging veteran, perhaps someone in the last year before free agency, whom they could acquire in a trade, to fill that role.

 

The power bat at clean up would most likely be a DH, thus replacing LaRoche. With just those two holes filled, this offense becomes pretty good, with a solid defense:

 

CF Eaton

SS ?

1B Abreu

DH ?

LF Cabrera

RF Thompson/Garcia

3B Olt

C Flowers/Soto

2B Sanchez

 

Thompson and Garcia could battle for the 3RD outfield spot. Olt is a worthwhile gamble for the potential power he could provide, if he figures it out. His Minor League history suggests that he can take his walks, and play solid defense.

 

Flowers seems to be able to handle the pitching staff, so perhaps that hole can be overlooked.

 

Sanchez could well take another step up in offensive production, and he provides stellar defense at 2ND. Ultimately, I still hope that he can develop into a good 2 hole hitter, which is where he has had his best Minor League success.

 

So, does anyone have an idea who might be that 2 hole hitter at short, or who could be the clean up hitter? At least it's just two holes, not an unrealistic 4 or 5.

 

See Kendrys Morales, 2015. Ian Desmond is flawed and he might be the best SS option, and it's not certain he will even be available.

 

Don't get the sense they trust Saladino as a full-time player.

Edited October 7, 2015 by caulfield12

[Lillian]

See Kendrys Morales, 2015. Ian Desmond is flawed and he might be the best SS option, and it's not certain he will even be available.

 

Don't get the sense they trust Saladino as a full-time player.

 

Morales is the guy I wanted, last off season. I've lamented Hahn's choice for a long time.

Is Desmond really a good enough SS, and a capable two hole hitter.

[GreenSox]

The fact that they are not blaming the manager means they are blaming the players. I expect a very active winter for the White Sox.

How are they going to move bad players and get anything in return? They can start with letting Alexei walk, although that won't be easy, as absurdly sentimental as this organization is. Otherwise, the bad players are the vets the acquired last year.

 

go young, please.

[GreenSox]

Trade Danks to Dodgers for Van Slyke and a low level minor leaguer

Trade Micah, Beck, Avi, and Danish for Todd Frazier and JJ Hoover

That would be a steal for Van Slyke.

 

I fully expect some major hero worship on Todd Frazier this fall and winter. And the Reds will probably have him on the block.

The reality is that, despite(or perhaps because of) his performance in the HR Derby, his 2nd half OPS was a dreadful c. .670. Not that I suspect this to dissuade the Sox: bad 2nd half splits never have before. He's also a bad defender (much worse than his metrics suggest). And if the Sox get him (and I dearly hope they don't), they'll pay more than you suggest for 2 years of his greatness.

Edited October 7, 2015 by GreenSox

[TheFutureIsNear]

Don't know if the Dodgers or anybody would want Danks without the Sox paying a major portion of his final year's salary. Don't know if they'd do that.

 

Mark

 

You don't think he could go to the NL West and be a serviceable 4th starter (4.2-4.4 era over 180 innings)? You're probably right, we would likely have to eat some money, but I don't think it would be a huge amount. I think Danks for 2 years 20M (we eat $10M) could appeal to a SP needy NL team and net is a utility guy like Van Slyke. Idk, maybe I'm undervaluing Van Slyke? The

[GGajewski18]

How are they going to move bad players and get anything in return? They can start with letting Alexei walk, although that won't be easy, as absurdly sentimental as this organization is. Otherwise, the bad players are the vets the acquired last year.

 

go young, please.

 

They can eat LaRoche's last year of his contract. Melky is fine, you can still win with him. He just needs to have a more consistent year, not come alive the 2nd half of the year. Do you want Saladino starting everyday at SS? Desmond? Desmond is worse than Alexei (just has more power) and going to cost a ton more money and years.

 

If you want to go young, what are some of your ideas?

[Bob Sacamano]

If they make any moves, I don't see them dealing anyone good from the MLB roster (maybe Q if they're blown away?). I would be ok dealing any prospect not named Fulmer or Anderson as I see any move that will be made to be more likely a quantity over quality deal. If we can get a bat for the price of Montas, Micah, Hawkins(, Michaelczewski if its a 3B back) I would pull the trigger in a heartbeat.

[TheFutureIsNear]

That would be a steal for Van Slyke.

 

I fully expect some major hero worship on Todd Frazier this fall and winter. And the Reds will probably have him on the block.

The reality is that, despite(or perhaps because of) his performance in the HR Derby, his 2nd half OPS was a dreadful c. .670. Not that I suspect this to dissuade the Sox: bad 2nd half splits never have before. He's also a bad defender (much worse than his metrics suggest). And if the Sox get him (and I dearly hope they don't), they'll pay more than you suggest for 2 years of his greatness.

 

I don't see why you're so worried about a 2nd 1/2 split of a 29 year old with a career .784 OPS. And that's including his horrendous 2013 which is a pretty clear outlier. I'll take the chance that his career isn't going to fall apart at 29.

 

Frazier is far from a perfect player, but I can't see why you would be upset if we acquired him. If he plays a decent 3B(I haven't watched him enough to suggest he's worse than his metrics)and can hit .265/.315/.475 with 30 bombs I would be very happy with the trade.

[daggins]

Q: Do you think Erik Johnson could bring back one of the following:

 

Marcell Ozuna

Brad Miller

 

Just tossing out ideas.

[Bob Sacamano]

Q: Do you think Erik Johnson could bring back one of the following:

 

Marcell Ozuna

Brad Miller

 

Just tossing out ideas.

 

I could see something like that. For a guy who may need a change of scenery.

 

 

[daggins]

Miller is appealing because he could play SS or 3B and is a decent lefty bat

Ozuna is appealing because the Marlins FO is dumb.

[Whisox05]

If they make any moves, I don't see them dealing anyone good from the MLB roster (maybe Q if they're blown away?). I would be ok dealing any prospect not named Fulmer or Anderson as I see any move that will be made to be more likely a quantity over quality deal. If we can get a bat for the price of Montas, Micah, Hawkins(, Michaelczewski if its a 3B back) I would pull the trigger in a heartbeat.

 

The thing with trading Quintana is your should get multiple top prospects back to fill multiple positions. The farm system is thin still and trading a bunch of prospects to get one bats is the wrong way of going. One bat is not going to fix the linup with to many holes. Plus those prospects listed are not going to get you a big bat that's needed.