My/Your Off Season Plan

[LDF]

I think it makes the most sense to keep those picks regardless, sign impact FA (ex. Zobrist & Kazmir) w/o pick compensation attached, and trade from your strength. That way, you improve the major and minor league product with very little additional cost to management.

 

excatly ..... but is anyone thinking the cost fact the amount of $$$ that will cost.

 

and will the owners allow it???

[thxfrthmmrs]

excatly ..... but is anyone thinking the cost fact the amount of $$$ that will cost.

 

and will the owners allow it???

 

In Heyward and Upton's case, no. The players shouldn't have to take less money just because teams have to forfeit a pick to sign them. Now if we're talking about players who will cost a pick and won't garner much interest, ahemm Samardjiza, then there is a small chance than they might not end up getting the $$ they're looking for because there aren't enough teams driving the $$ up, or they might remain unsigned till June.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Cespedes is the only one that won't cost a draft pick. I think there's a slim chance the Sox will sign a QO free agent with a top 10 pick. I think there's zero chance they do it without a top 10 pick.

 

Depends on how it plays out. If we end up losing only a 2nd round pick for Heyward, I have no problem with that.

[LDF]

In Heyward and Upton's case, no. The players shouldn't have to take less money just because teams have to forfeit a pick to sign them. Now if we're talking about players who will cost a pick and won't garner much interest, ahemm Samardjiza, then there is a small chance than they might not end up getting the $$ they're looking for because there aren't enough teams driving the $$ up, or they might remain unsigned till June.

an interesting point.

 

but i am leaning to the ones who will cost a draft pick. i mean that is what the others are talking about.

[LDF]

Depends on how it plays out. If we end up losing only a 2nd round pick for Heyward, I have no problem with that.

 

excellent and that is where i am hedging..... now for the powers to be to pony up.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Depends on how it plays out. If we end up losing only a 2nd round pick for Heyward, I have no problem with that.

 

 

It's a 2nd round pick and something in the range of $160 million. When have the Sox ever spent that much $$ on a free agent? People here talk about the bad contracts the team is burdened with.

 

Danks 5 years at $65 million

LaRoche at 2 years $25 million

Melky Cabrera at 3 years $44 million.

 

Those were seen as big commitments for the Sox. Heyward will be crazy expensive.

[LDF]

quote name='Y2JImmy0' date='Sep 28, 2015 -> 03:52 PM' post='3240229'

It's a 2nd round pick and something in the range of $160 million. When have the Sox ever spent that much $$ on a free agent? People here talk about the bad contracts the team is burdened with.

 

Danks 5 years at $65 million ... that contract was given before his injury

LaRoche at 2 years $25 million .... a regurgitate type of players the sox have hope in.

Melky Cabrera at 3 years $44 million. .... i still like this contract. his numbers is what was needed.

 

Those were seen as big commitments for the Sox. Heyward will be crazy expensive.

 

and i agree, the owners will not spend that kind of money.... pretty much like SS2k5 have stated.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Depends on how it plays out. If we end up losing only a 2nd round pick for Heyward, I have no problem with that.

 

The nearly $200 million will be the problem, not the draft pick.

[LDF]

The nearly $200 million will be the problem, not the draft pick.

correct

[bmags]

What do people think Alex Gordon will get?

[southsider2k5]

What do people think Alex Gordon will get?

 

Going off of what Melky got last year, and thinking about Heyward in the $22-25 million range on the upper end, I'd go with something in the 16 to 18 million per season range. He will be 32 by opening day next year, so I would guess 5 to 6 years.

 

My guess 6/100.

[Jose Abreu]

My guess for Gordon is 4/90. Yankees or Dodgers or some rich team.

[bmags]

This is just not a very exciting FA crop to me. But if we signed Gordon, I would be happy with watching our OF defense move from bad to good and seeing how it helps our staff. That obp is nice too.

 

But, it just seems so silly for the team, where it's at, to go all out on that.

 

I keep saying it, but honestly, I don't know how you fix this team.

[thxfrthmmrs]

The nearly $200 million will be the problem, not the draft pick.

 

I don't think we have much of a shot at Heyward, but we're talking about our/other people's plan in this thread, not the most likely scenarios here. If we are going after Heyward, a 2nd round pick is least of my concern

[LDF]

I don't think we have much of a shot at Heyward, but we're talking about our/other people's plan in this thread, not the most likely scenarios here. If we are going after Heyward, a 2nd round pick is least of my concern

 

someone mention and brought out an interesting set of additional numbers that many probably didn't account for. i know i didn't.

 

it was the additional salary that players are going to get for bonuses and contract extensions. wasn't that around 15 mil additional ???

[VAfan]

Here's what I think the Sox WILL DO, not what I want them to do.

 

1. Keep Ventura another year. As I said in my post above, this would be a very big mistake. He really hasn't brought anything to the table. No one can make even a shred of a case that he's helped the team win more games than it would without him. He doesn't manage pitching well, is a bad in-game tactician, and the team is HORRIBLE at fundamental baseball. It's this last part that should get him fired. But it won't.

 

2. Keep Adam LaRoche and hope he rebounds. With Trayce Thompson, the Sox may have the right-handed platoon for LaRoche, but otherwise, I think the Sox aren't going to eat his $12.5M contract, and no one would take him off our hands on the trade market.

 

3. Keep Avisail Garcia in RF. Like they did with Viciedo, the Sox will reason that this was Garcia's first full season, and will hope that he still has upside. This is really a futile exercise, but because he's still so cheap, the Sox will talk themselves into it.

 

4. Pick up Alexei's $10M option. This is a tricky one. They might try to get him to sign a cheaper deal, but to do so they have to cut him loose, at which point he can sell his services to anyone. I expect he'll think he can get the $10M (or more) from somewhere else, and/or more years at the same time. Knowing this, the Sox will cave and keep him.

 

5. Keep John Danks. Again, no takers on the trade market for Danks' last season. Sox will see him as a bridge to Fullmer, and will keep hoping he gets slightly better.

 

6. Plan for 2B to be the same contest it was this year -- Sanchez v. Micah Johnson. Sanchez had only one good month, and the rest has ranged from crap to awful crap. But he plays good defense, and like Garcia, the Sox will hope for his hitting to improve. Johnson's fielding still won't be good enough to displace Sanchez.

 

7. Keep Flowers at C. The differential between Flowers and Soto for certain pitchers will persuade the Sox to keep Flowers rather than look for a free agent replacement. Sox might also bring Soto back.

 

8. Tender the Shark, and let him go. The Sox will likely fill this rotation spot from within, with Eric Johnson in the lead. But I expect we'll also sign a cheap starter to have competition for this spot.

 

9. Keep Quintana. Sox will realize if they trade Q, it will just create a hole in the pitching staff.

 

10. Sox will do something at 3B, and this will be their "big splash."

 

In short, I think the Sox will not be hugely active this offseason. Instead, they will hope for rebound years from LaRoche, Cabrera, Ramirez, and improvement years from Garcia and Sanchez or Johnson, plus perhaps more from Abreu. And they will hope that the pitching will have a better result with a little more offense.

 

In 2017, LaRoche, Ramirez, and Danks will be gone, which will free up money for the Sox to make another free agent foray. The pitching will be led by Sale, Rodon, Quintana, and Fullmer, and a solid bullpen. If the Sox have somehow fixed 3B this offseason, their focus will be on RF, DH, 2B, and C, with Anderson coming up to play SS.

 

If they don't jettison Ventura, it won't really matter.

[LDF]

Here's what I think the Sox WILL DO, not what I want them to do.

 

1. Keep Ventura another year. As I said in my post above, this would be a very big mistake. He really hasn't brought anything to the table. No one can make even a shred of a case that he's helped the team win more games than it would without him. He doesn't manage pitching well, is a bad in-game tactician, and the team is HORRIBLE at fundamental baseball. It's this last part that should get him fired. But it won't.

 

2. Keep Adam LaRoche and hope he rebounds. With Trayce Thompson, the Sox may have the right-handed platoon for LaRoche, but otherwise, I think the Sox aren't going to eat his $12.5M contract, and no one would take him off our hands on the trade market.

 

3. Keep Avisail Garcia in RF. Like they did with Viciedo, the Sox will reason that this was Garcia's first full season, and will hope that he still has upside. This is really a futile exercise, but because he's still so cheap, the Sox will talk themselves into it.

 

4. Pick up Alexei's $10M option. This is a tricky one. They might try to get him to sign a cheaper deal, but to do so they have to cut him loose, at which point he can sell his services to anyone. I expect he'll think he can get the $10M (or more) from somewhere else, and/or more years at the same time. Knowing this, the Sox will cave and keep him.

 

5. Keep John Danks. Again, no takers on the trade market for Danks' last season. Sox will see him as a bridge to Fullmer, and will keep hoping he gets slightly better.

 

6. Plan for 2B to be the same contest it was this year -- Sanchez v. Micah Johnson. Sanchez had only one good month, and the rest has ranged from crap to awful crap. But he plays good defense, and like Garcia, the Sox will hope for his hitting to improve. Johnson's fielding still won't be good enough to displace Sanchez.

 

7. Keep Flowers at C. The differential between Flowers and Soto for certain pitchers will persuade the Sox to keep Flowers rather than look for a free agent replacement. Sox might also bring Soto back.

 

8. Tender the Shark, and let him go. The Sox will likely fill this rotation spot from within, with Eric Johnson in the lead. But I expect we'll also sign a cheap starter to have competition for this spot.

 

9. Keep Quintana. Sox will realize if they trade Q, it will just create a hole in the pitching staff.

 

10. Sox will do something at 3B, and this will be their "big splash."

 

In short, I think the Sox will not be hugely active this offseason. Instead, they will hope for rebound years from LaRoche, Cabrera, Ramirez, and improvement years from Garcia and Sanchez or Johnson, plus perhaps more from Abreu. And they will hope that the pitching will have a better result with a little more offense.

 

In 2017, LaRoche, Ramirez, and Danks will be gone, which will free up money for the Sox to make another free agent foray. The pitching will be led by Sale, Rodon, Quintana, and Fullmer, and a solid bullpen. If the Sox have somehow fixed 3B this offseason, their focus will be on RF, DH, 2B, and C, with Anderson coming up to play SS.

 

If they don't jettison Ventura, it won't really matter.

 

after reading all this.... i am really depress. .... esp the 2 bolds.

[shysocks]

6. Plan for 2B to be the same contest it was this year -- Sanchez v. Micah Johnson. Sanchez had only one good month, and the rest has ranged from crap to awful crap. But he plays good defense, and like Garcia, the Sox will hope for his hitting to improve. Johnson's fielding still won't be good enough to displace Sanchez.

I'd be totally fine handing the job to Sanchez again. You compare him to Garcia, and that makes sense because he'll be a disappointing incumbent with youth on his side. Unlike Avi, though, the offensive level Sanchez needs to reach to be a productive player are pretty low. I think he can reach that level.

[Jose Abreu]

Starting pitching is the #1 available position in free agency. Just our luck, as we have the best starting pitching in baseball. I think we'll make our big moves via trades rather than free agency.

[caulfield12]

One of the favorite targets, Chris Davis of Baltimore, became suddenly not such a bargain with his second half.

[southsider2k5]

Here's what I think the Sox WILL DO, not what I want them to do.

 

1. Keep Ventura another year. As I said in my post above, this would be a very big mistake. He really hasn't brought anything to the table. No one can make even a shred of a case that he's helped the team win more games than it would without him. He doesn't manage pitching well, is a bad in-game tactician, and the team is HORRIBLE at fundamental baseball. It's this last part that should get him fired. But it won't.

 

2. Keep Adam LaRoche and hope he rebounds. With Trayce Thompson, the Sox may have the right-handed platoon for LaRoche, but otherwise, I think the Sox aren't going to eat his $12.5M contract, and no one would take him off our hands on the trade market.

 

3. Keep Avisail Garcia in RF. Like they did with Viciedo, the Sox will reason that this was Garcia's first full season, and will hope that he still has upside. This is really a futile exercise, but because he's still so cheap, the Sox will talk themselves into it.

 

4. Pick up Alexei's $10M option. This is a tricky one. They might try to get him to sign a cheaper deal, but to do so they have to cut him loose, at which point he can sell his services to anyone. I expect he'll think he can get the $10M (or more) from somewhere else, and/or more years at the same time. Knowing this, the Sox will cave and keep him.

 

5. Keep John Danks. Again, no takers on the trade market for Danks' last season. Sox will see him as a bridge to Fullmer, and will keep hoping he gets slightly better.

 

6. Plan for 2B to be the same contest it was this year -- Sanchez v. Micah Johnson. Sanchez had only one good month, and the rest has ranged from crap to awful crap. But he plays good defense, and like Garcia, the Sox will hope for his hitting to improve. Johnson's fielding still won't be good enough to displace Sanchez.

 

7. Keep Flowers at C. The differential between Flowers and Soto for certain pitchers will persuade the Sox to keep Flowers rather than look for a free agent replacement. Sox might also bring Soto back.

 

8. Tender the Shark, and let him go. The Sox will likely fill this rotation spot from within, with Eric Johnson in the lead. But I expect we'll also sign a cheap starter to have competition for this spot.

 

9. Keep Quintana. Sox will realize if they trade Q, it will just create a hole in the pitching staff.

 

10. Sox will do something at 3B, and this will be their "big splash."

 

In short, I think the Sox will not be hugely active this offseason. Instead, they will hope for rebound years from LaRoche, Cabrera, Ramirez, and improvement years from Garcia and Sanchez or Johnson, plus perhaps more from Abreu. And they will hope that the pitching will have a better result with a little more offense.

 

In 2017, LaRoche, Ramirez, and Danks will be gone, which will free up money for the Sox to make another free agent foray. The pitching will be led by Sale, Rodon, Quintana, and Fullmer, and a solid bullpen. If the Sox have somehow fixed 3B this offseason, their focus will be on RF, DH, 2B, and C, with Anderson coming up to play SS.

 

If they don't jettison Ventura, it won't really matter.

 

This is the most realistic thing I have seen.

 

[southsider2k5]

Out of curiosity, is there anyone out there who does defense number splits? What I would like to see is if, and by how much, Sox defensive metrics changed over the course of the season. Specifically as a couple of changes were made (benching Gillaspie, Sanchez replaces Johnson, improvements by Eaton and Alexei as the season went on) how much, or how little, the team defense improved.

 

I know the season long ratings have us really low, but I wonder how much of that is from burying themselves with an awful start.

[BigFinn]

My off-season plan is to get used to the Cub fans in my life chirp about their post-season appearance and then to listen to the Packer fans in my life crow about their Super Bowl expectations.

 

I'm practicing my "Gee, isn't that special" smile, even as I type this out.

[Bob Sacamano]

This is the most realistic thing I have seen.

 

I agree. Depending on what they do at third, I see this team finishing with a top 10 draft pick for 2017.

[OmarComing25]

Out of curiosity, is there anyone out there who does defense number splits? What I would like to see is if, and by how much, Sox defensive metrics changed over the course of the season. Specifically as a couple of changes were made (benching Gillaspie, Sanchez replaces Johnson, improvements by Eaton and Alexei as the season went on) how much, or how little, the team defense improved.

 

I know the season long ratings have us really low, but I wonder how much of that is from burying themselves with an awful start.

Fangraphs doesn't let you do seasonal splits by UZR, but it does let you do it by the overall defensive number they have.

 

Overall:

April: -11.3

May: -13.0

June: -9.7

July: -8.0

August: -8.2

September: -12.8

 

 

OF:

April: -5.4

May: -9.2

June: -7.5

July: -8.3

August: -8.7

September: -9.2

 

Fangraphs allows you to split by OF but not by IF, but it looks like the infield defense actually had positive numbers in July and August (just going by the difference between the two numbers), but fell off considerably in September. I'd be interested to see our DRS values, but by UZR we were still by far the worst defensive team in baseball in the 2nd half.