My/Your Off Season Plan

[Vance Law]

If LaRoche sucks again next year I think the Sox won't be afraid to bench him, it doesn't really hurt to eat the money in the last year of a contract. Same with Danks.

 

I assume they will give LaRoche 6 or 8 weeks of playing against righties to see if he can hit like his old self. They'd get virtually nothing at all in cash relief or players by dumping him. Best upside is in seeing if he can hit righties and help the team or recoup some trade value. I have no problem with sending Avi to AAA to figure out how to defend and slug.

[Knackattack]

I assume they will give LaRoche 6 or 8 weeks of playing against righties to see if he can hit like his old self. They'd get virtually nothing at all in cash relief or players by dumping him. Best upside is in seeing if he can hit righties and help the team or recoup some trade value. I have no problem with sending Avi to AAA to figure out how to defend and slug.

This. If Micah Johnson looked like he had a clue at the plate and was sent down to work on defense, I don't see why Avi who didn't look like he had a clue wasn't sent down for the same reason.

[Vance Law]

Someone more versed in WAR:

 

How much better than Trayce Thompson does Avi have to hit just to be of equal value given their difference in defensive performance?

 

To me, there is just no way that Avi is a better baseball player than Trayce as of April 2016. Plus there's hope the Sox might use the opportunity of the protected pick to sign one of the big FAs, many of whom are outfielders. Avi in AAA might get the message across that he's not an everyday player unless he gets a lot better.

[shysocks]

Someone more versed in WAR:

 

How much better than Trayce Thompson does Avi have to hit just to be of equal value given their difference in defensive performance?

 

To me, there is just no way that Avi is a better baseball player than Trayce as of April 2016. Plus there's hope the Sox might use the opportunity of the protected pick to sign one of the big FAs, many of whom are outfielders. Avi in AAA might get the message across that he's not an everyday player unless he gets a lot better.

Let's assume for simplicity that Eaton has center field covered, so our right fielder is either Trayce or Avi. Let's also assume that Avi can be a -10 run defender next year (that's generous) and Trayce can be +5 (that's pretty realistic). Let's also assume that Avi is a -2 baserunner and Trayce is +3.

 

That means Avi would have to make up 20 runs, or 2 WAR, with his bat. That's probably a difference of about 25-30 wRC+. In our park that's roughly the difference between Melky Cabrera's .273/.314/.394/.709 and Adam Eaton's .287/.361/.431/.792.

 

Trayce could definitely put up worse than Melky's line, but I see no reason to believe Avi could do better than Eaton's.

Edited October 9, 2015 by shysocks

[SCCWS]

I'm going to throw it out there, but what about Chris Davis? He's the best hitter available in free agency, can technically play multiple positions (allows both him & Abreu in the lineup in NL parks), and his addition would allow us to go defense-oriented at a couple of spots. Sign Zobrist and trade for a catcher (will use Derek Norris here) and go with something like this:

 

1. Eaton, CF

2. Zobrist, 3B

3. Abreu, DH/1B

4. Davis, 1B/DH

5. Cabrera, LF

6. Thompson, RF

7. Ramirez, SS

8. Norris, C

9. Sanchez, 2B

 

Huge question marks in the bottom half of the lineup, but at least they're all strong defenders. But that 1 - 5 would be very potent and could probably carry the load.

 

 

Ben Zobrist plays a bunch of positions but not 3rd. In his career I don't think he has played 10 games there and I think he had problems when he did.

[Vance Law]

Ben Zobrist plays a bunch of positions but not 3rd. In his career I don't think he has played 10 games there and I think he had problems when he did.

 

I can't speak to his ability over at 3rd. Just that he's played plenty of 2nd and short and as long as he doesn't have a really weak arm, it seems like something he could handle.

 

I would say the biggest reason he hasn't been called to play 3rd are: Evan Longoria, Brett Lawrie, Mike Moustakas

[Dunt]

Updated b/c Im bored on my lunch break:

 

-Offer Samardzija QO and he rejects it

-Decline Alexei's option

-Resign Matt Albers

-Trade Q for Nomar Mazara, Jurickson Profar, and Luis Ortiz

-Trade Micah and Avi for Derek Norris

-Trade Montas, Adams, Trey, and Hawkins for Frazier, Bailey, and cash

-Sign Trevor Cahill to a 1 yr contract

 

CF Eaton

RF Mazara

1B Abreu

3B Frazier

DH LaRoche/Thompson

LF Cabrera

C Norris

2B Sanchez/Profar

SS Saladino/Profar

 

BE Thompson/LaRoche

BE Profar/Saladino/Sanchez

BE Flowers

BE L Garcia

 

SP Sale

SP Rodon

SP Johnson

SP Danks

SP Cahill (Bailey when he gets back)

 

CL Robertson

SU Jones

SU Duke

RP Albers

RP Petricka

RP Putnam

 

 

Positives:

-Keep all 3 picks in the top 50 this season

-Keep Anderson and Fulmer

-Flexibility with pitching staff when Bailey returns and Fulmer gets called up

-Offense looks much more balanced

 

Negatives:

-Pitching staff is obviously weakened, Ventura will need to be creative with it

-Profar may not return to have a healthy career

-Bullpen looks marginal

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Updated b/c Im bored on my lunch break:

 

-Offer Samardzija QO and he rejects it

-Decline Alexei's option

-Resign Matt Albers

-Trade Q for Nomar Mazara, Jurickson Profar, and Luis Ortiz

-Trade Micah and Avi for Derek Norris

-Trade Montas, Adams, Trey, and Hawkins for Frazier, Bailey, and cash

-Sign Trevor Cahill to a 1 yr contract

 

CF Eaton

RF Mazara

1B Abreu

3B Frazier

DH LaRoche/Thompson

LF Cabrera

C Norris

2B Sanchez/Profar

SS Saladino/Profar

 

BE Thompson/LaRoche

BE Profar/Saladino/Sanchez

BE Flowers

BE L Garcia

 

SP Sale

SP Rodon

SP Johnson

SP Danks

SP Cahill (Bailey when he gets back)

 

CL Robertson

SU Jones

SU Duke

RP Albers

RP Petricka

RP Putnam

 

 

Positives:

-Keep all 3 picks in the top 50 this season

-Keep Anderson and Fulmer

-Flexibility with pitching staff when Bailey returns and Fulmer gets called up

-Offense looks much more balanced

 

Negatives:

-Pitching staff is obviously weakened, Ventura will need to be creative with it

-Profar may not return to have a healthy career

-Bullpen looks marginal

Why would they trade an established guy in Quintana for prospects just to then trade prospects for a guy like Frazier?

 

I think they'll either go for it again or start rebuilding. Not both.

[Dunt]

Why would they trade an established guy in Quintana for prospects just to then trade prospects for a guy like Frazier?

 

I think they'll either go for it again or start rebuilding. Not both.

 

Because they need offense at multiple positions. Mazara gives them another building block to add to Abreu and Eaton for the future, he has massive potential. Profar, if he returns healthy, gives you plus defense up the middle with Anderson eventually at either SS or 2B. Frazier fits the "3 year window" the FO discussed and would be here until the Sox could probably start rolling over the next wave of prospects (e.g. guys they draft this year if they draft college position players).

Edited October 16, 2015 by Dunt

[Balta1701]

Because they need offense at multiple positions. Mazara gives them another building block to add to Abreu and Eaton for the future, he has massive potential. Profar, if he returns healthy, gives you plus defense up the middle with Anderson eventually at either SS or 2B. Frazier fits the "3 year window" the FO discussed and would be here until the Sox could probably start rolling over the next wave of prospects (e.g. guys they draft this year if they draft college position players).

Which shows you how silly a "3 year window is". "Let's trade for guys who might contribute next year if we're lucky and are FAs in 2 years, and then also trade for guys who we might need several years to develop into quality big leaguers. Why do you think there's a contradiction here? I don't."

[GGajewski18]

Jason Mastrodonato ‏@JMastrodonato 3h3 hours ago

One rival exec fairly certain the Red Sox are going to blow up their farm system. "Dave is going to make some moves. He'll be busy."

 

Jason Mastrodonato ‏@JMastrodonato 3h3 hours ago

Amazing to hear other execs talk about Red Sox' farm system and just gush over it. It's not just the prospect gurus who do the rankings.

 

Any money we hear Chris Sale to Boston again? Or Q to Boston this winter?

[fathom]

Strasburg to Boston makes sense

[Jose Abreu]

Jason Mastrodonato ‏@JMastrodonato 3h3 hours ago

One rival exec fairly certain the Red Sox are going to blow up their farm system. "Dave is going to make some moves. He'll be busy."

 

Jason Mastrodonato ‏@JMastrodonato 3h3 hours ago

Amazing to hear other execs talk about Red Sox' farm system and just gush over it. It's not just the prospect gurus who do the rankings.

 

Any money we hear Chris Sale to Boston again? Or Q to Boston this winter?

Don't think we'll be able to handle all of the "BREAKING: Red Sox acquire Chris Sale for [insert Red Sox #27 prospect here]" tweets, or the "C'mon Red Sox, get Sale! They'll take him for Owens!" type-tweets

[caulfield12]

Just like Puig to the White Sox for Quintana, unless they're 100% convinced Ryu will be healthy next year...then they'd be better off picking a couple of 3-5 guys off the second and third tier FA list.

 

Of course, it depends on what happens with Greinke.

 

Nobody is going to be rushing out after Price and Cueto with their shakiness issues (or just general problems adjusting to the AL in Cueto's case).

 

But who knows...everyone's waiting to see the dollar signs with Greinke, Heyward, Cespedes, Upton, Price and Cueto posted first.

Edited October 19, 2015 by caulfield12

[greg775]

Just like Puig to the White Sox for Quintana, unless they're 100% convinced Ryu will be healthy next year...then they'd be better off picking a couple of 3-5 guys off the second and third tier FA list.

 

Of course, it depends on what happens with Greinke.

 

Nobody is going to be rushing out after Price and Cueto with their shakiness issues (or just general problems adjusting to the AL in Cueto's case).

 

But who knows...everyone's waiting to see the dollar signs with Greinke, Heyward, Cespedes, Upton, Price and Cueto posted first.

Yeah there are only so many big market teams. Those teams already have some of the insane contracts. I mean Greinke I read is getting 150 mill for 5 years. That's 30 mill a year. WHoever pays that can keep signing others? Are "normal" payrolls going to be 200 to 250 million and the big market teams 400 mill?

 

You'd think owners would wise up some year. Uh, Minnesota almost made the playoffs. Yes Minnesota. They didn't need no massive contracts cept for Mauer.

Edited October 19, 2015 by greg775

[caulfield12]

Yeah there are only so many big market teams. Those teams already have some of the insane contracts. I mean Greinke I read is getting 150 mill for 5 years. That's 30 mill a year. WHoever pays that can keep signing others? Are "normal" payrolls going to be 200 to 250 million and the big market teams 400 mill?

 

You'd think owners would wise up some year. Uh, Minnesota almost made the playoffs. Yes Minnesota. They didn't need no massive contracts cept for Mauer.

 

Ervin Santana $13.5 million

Ricky Nolasco $12 million

Torii Hunter $10.5 million

Phil Hughes $9.2 million

 

$45.2 million + $23 million for Joe Mauer, so you're not far off from our entire 2005 team, maybe $10 million in separation.

 

That's a lot of money for a starting rotation these days, although still cheaper probably than our 2006-08 rotations with Buehrle, Garcia, Contreras, Garland and Javy V.

[GreenSox]

Let's assume for simplicity that Eaton has center field covered, so our right fielder is either Trayce or Avi. Let's also assume that Avi can be a -10 run defender next year (that's generous) and Trayce can be +5 (that's pretty realistic). Let's also assume that Avi is a -2 baserunner and Trayce is +3.

 

That means Avi would have to make up 20 runs, or 2 WAR, with his bat. That's probably a difference of about 25-30 wRC+. In our park that's roughly the difference between Melky Cabrera's .273/.314/.394/.709 and Adam Eaton's .287/.361/.431/.792.

 

Trayce could definitely put up worse than Melky's line, but I see no reason to believe Avi could do better than Eaton's.

Or the Sox could move Eaton to left and Trayce to center and move Melky on his way. That would improve the D significantly. Avi, in his first full season, hit a whole .34 OPS less than Melky and had twice the number of assists. Even better, sell high on Eaton- rather trade him to plug holes than Quintana.

[Eminor3rd]

Or the Sox could move Eaton to left and Trayce to center and move Melky on his way. That would improve the D significantly. Avi, in his first full season, hit a whole .34 OPS less than Melky and had twice the number of assists. Even better, sell high on Eaton- rather trade him to plug holes than Quintana.

 

So we've got two bad outfielders and one good outfielder, and you'd rather use the flash-in-the-pan prospect to replace the good one?

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Or the Sox could move Eaton to left and Trayce to center and move Melky on his way. That would improve the D significantly. Avi, in his first full season, hit a whole .34 OPS less than Melky and had twice the number of assists. Even better, sell high on Eaton- rather trade him to plug holes than Quintana.

What's the opposite of hero worshipping? Because trading one of the better young OFs in the game under control for multiple years at a below market rate to "plug holes" and open up everyday spots for both Trayce & Avi would be disastrous.

 

Sign Justin Upton to a 6 year, $130M deal and make Trayce the 4th until he proves otherwise.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Just like Puig to the White Sox for Quintana, unless they're 100% convinced Ryu will be healthy next year...then they'd be better off picking a couple of 3-5 guys off the second and third tier FA list.

 

Of course, it depends on what happens with Greinke.

 

Nobody is going to be rushing out after Price and Cueto with their shakiness issues (or just general problems adjusting to the AL in Cueto's case).

 

But who knows...everyone's waiting to see the dollar signs with Greinke, Heyward, Cespedes, Upton, Price and Cueto posted first.

 

 

I think the Dodgers will sign Greinke and one of the free agent starters. I'm thinking they sign Greinke and Cueto. David Price to Boston. Zimmerman to Cubs.

[ChiSox59]

Ervin Santana $13.5 million

Ricky Nolasco $12 million

Torii Hunter $10.5 million

Phil Hughes $9.2 million

 

$45.2 million + $23 million for Joe Mauer, so you're not far off from our entire 2005 team, maybe $10 million in separation.

 

That's a lot of money for a starting rotation these days, although still cheaper probably than our 2006-08 rotations with Buehrle, Garcia, Contreras, Garland and Javy V.

 

A very expensive, mediocre rotation, mind you.

[southsider2k5]

I know this will destroy everyone's off season plans.

 

FutureSox.com ‏@FutureSox 4h4 hours ago

 

RHP Maikel Cleto elected free agency, while RHP Matt Heidenreich & INF Marcus Lemon we re-signed (MiLB), per @MattEddyBA #WhiteSox

[GGajewski18]

So, I asked my friends that are Cubs fans today if they would do Quintana for Baez and Soler, and I got 3 immediate no's, without them even thinking about it. They countered with Castro and a prospect.

 

I said no way and asked if they knew that Quintana has been better than Lester the last 4 years, and they had no clue.

[Dick Allen]

Kaplan just had a Mets announcer on and he was talking about Murphy. Called him a great hitter who really doesn't care about anything else. Bad in the field and makes a lot of mistakes on the bases. Sounds like a White Sox.

[GGajewski18]

New updated mock that I was thinking of last night.

 

Give Samardzija QO, he rejects it.

Pick up Alexei's 10 million option

 

Resign:

RP Matt Albers 1 year/3 million

 

Free Agency:

Sign SP Zack Grienke 5 years/150 million

 

Trades

Sox trade 2B Micah Johnson and RF Avisail Garcia to the Padres for C Derek Norris

Sox trade SP Erik Johnson, 3B Trey Michalczewski, SP Frankie Montas, 2B Carlos Sanchez, and SP Tyler Danish to the Reds for 3B Todd Frazier and 2B/SS Zack Cozart

 

CF Eaton (L)

2B Cozart (L)

1B Abreu

LF Cabrera (S)

3B Frazier

DH LaRoche (L)

RF Thompson

SS Ramirez

C Norris

 

UTIL Saladino, OF Shuck, C Flowers, 1B/3B Olt

 

Sale (L)

Grienke

Quintana (L)

Rodon (L)

Danks (L)

 

RP Carroll (long man)

RP Jennings (L)

RP Putnam

RP Petricka

RP Duke (L)

RP Jones

CP Robertson

 

Thoughts?

Edited October 21, 2015 by SoxPride18