My/Your Off Season Plan

[Hatchetman]

Sounds good. Forward to KW.

[LDF]

I've been thinking a lot this post season since my last offseason plan and this is what i think is both realistic and likely, looking forward to some spirited conversation with regards to this post. Last year the sox were 1st in the AL in fWAR for starting pitching(4th overall) and 7th for relieving(16th overall) total pitching the sox were 3rd in the AL(9th overall), and dead last for hitting. Seeing how around 40WAR got you into the post season this year and how at the all star break we were still in it, there is hope to be had.

 

 

I would tender contracts to all ARB eligible players: Flowers, Garcia, Jones, Putnam & Jennings. Next I would decline Ramirez's option and pay the 1M buy out. With the free agents to be I would QO Samardzija, knowing he is going to decline, re-sign geovany soto for 2 years 6M and let Albers who was solid for us walk and beckham to never be heard from again. I think a certain subset of our fanbase would be very excited if we brought back the following players and if they're useful why not. Sign Mark Buehrle for 6.5M provided hes healthy and wants to play one more year. Sign AJ Pierzynski to a two year 7M deal with a 500k buy out. Lastly i would sign Steve Pearce to a 4M deal possibly with an additional option.

 

I would look to make the following trades:

 

C Tyler Flowers to Seattle for SS Brad Miller - Hahn has actively been trying to upgrade this spot for quite some time and the mariners are desperate for catching help since Zunino hasn't panned out. By installing Flowers as their catcher that is a swing of 1.2WAR, -.8 to .4WAR. Miller in the outfield has been a disaster for the M's and he isn't going to supplant Cano or Marte. Miller is a slighty above average defender at SS and 2B and can out produce Alexei for 1/20th of the cost.

 

RHP Erik Johnson, OF Avisail Garcia & RHP Spencer Adams for 3B Martin Prado & OF Marcell Ozuna - Miami need young cheap pitching Johnson provides that and Loria has consistently shown a propensity for not wanting to pay anyone more than league minimum, taking all of Prado's salary and their outspoken outfielder in Ozuna solves some of their issues while giving them a lottery ticket in Avisail to play in left and a promising young arm in Adams in addition to 11M freed up to pay someone like Juan Uribe this offseason. Loria is on record saying he would trade Ozuna and Ozuna has had a down year in addition to being upset about how his major league service has been handled.

 

LHP John Danks + 6M, 2B Micah Johnson & OF Courtney Hawkins for RHP Braden Shipley, LHP Cody Reed & UT Phil Gosselin - John Danks would've ranked second in fWAR and innings pitched on the d-backs staff, they've got some great young arms coming up but they need an inning eating stalwart to break their staff in. Johnson replaces Chris Owings at second base while fitting into their aggressive strategy on the base paths (2nd in SB overall in the league) and Hawkins is a change of scenery candidate going to a system that has had a lot of success in developing young hitters. Shipley appears to be a possible 3/4 on a staff in a year and a half, possibly two, Reed has a lot of potential but has issues with conditioning and is a long way away and Gosselin is a solid utility player.

 

1B Adam LaRoche for RHP Jonathan Papelbon. This is a bad contract / "cancer" swap, both are FAs after '16. LaRoche goes back to a place where he has had modest success backing up the oft injured Zimmerman and providing a left handed bat off the bench. The nats rid themselves of Papelbon and the sox get a high leverage reliever with a chip on his shoulder.

 

 

 

Payroll comes in at approximately at $115.46M; thats including Alexei's buy out, dead money from Bonifacio & Peavy and the 6M sent along with Danks to Arizona. Less than the $118.8 from last year. Some believe the sox payroll can reach 130M, put me in that camp as well but the only long shot FA I would remotely pursue would be Jason Heyward and additional veteran 5th and 6th starter types to store at AAA in case of emergency or if Montas falls on his face.

 

 

I firmly believe that Thompson has the possibility to be like Brandon Crawford and Randal Grichuk; a tools player made good on said tools even with mediocre minor league results. Moving Eaton and cementing Trayce in centerfield while adding Ozuna and relegating melky to DH and 5th outfielder drastically improves the defense; the amount that Cabrera, Eaton and Garcia gave away out there is sickening. The fact that the sox had the best starting pitching by fWAR in the AL is a testament to the staffs ability and why maybe we shouldn't be moving any of them and should be supplementing them with better defense across the diamond. Moving Cabrera who was -15 in defense to DH(-17.5) full time would barely be a decrease in his value at this point.

 

Miller provides the sox with at the very least a utility man and bridge to Anderson with the potential for a solid regular to replace Sanchez if he falters. Understandably a lot of people are skeptical of Carlos Sanchez, but he is only 23 years old and a switch hitter. The fact that he had even modest success at the major league level in the second half should be very telling, the organization loves his glove and his bat should come along. Young hitters take a while, it is even more pronounced in switch hitters especially power. Carlos could be a fixture for the sox for a long time to come and I would like to see the sox give him a very long leash.

 

This is some back of the napkin math and I look forward to hearing what others think with regards to what realistic expectations for WAR could be going into next year and defensive rating(this will be very crude and simple).

 

DH - Melky - 1-1.5 WAR, if he is capable of producing his second half the sox will be in fine shape at DH. Defensively D-

 

C - AJ & Geo - 1.5-2.5 WAR and C defensively I think we're looking at average and in the same area as Grandal and Lucroy and slightly above Flowers himself.

 

1B - Abreu - 4 WAR somewhere between his first and second full year and inline with his second half. D- defensively but luckily in this offseason plan we've got Steve Pearce to back him up late in the game and provide pop off the bench.

 

2B - Sanchez - 1.5-2WAR this him just duplicating his second half of the season and growing. A- Defensively

 

SS - Miller - 1.5-2WAR putting him back at shortstop and a change of scenery could do him wonders. B- Defensively.

 

3B - Prado - 2.5-3WAR leaving him at 3B along with a wRC+ of 100 would do wonders for this team, in addition to coming to a more hitter friendly ballpark. A+ Defensively.

 

LF - Eaton - 3.5-5WAR by moving him to left field his defense plays up we could be looking at an Alex Gordon like player if his second half is a precursor. Defensively in CF C- in LF B-.

 

CF - Thompson - 2-3WAR I stand by why I think Trayce makes the step forward. Defensively A.

 

RF - Ozuna - 1.5-3WAR a change of scenery could be what he needs to get back to the promise he previously showed. B Defensively.

 

SP - Sale - 6-8WAR if ever there was a Kershaw clone we're blessed to have him on the team.

 

SP - Quintana - 4.5-6WAR Continues to do a better impression of Andy Pettitte link.

 

SP - Buehrle - 1.5-2WAR if he is willing and healthy no reason to think he wouldn't be a great addition to this team and give a certain segment of fans something to be excited about, plus he can retire a white sox at the end of the year.

 

SP - Rodon - 2-4WAR I personally believe he reduces his BB/9 closer to league average and takes off and never looks back

 

SP - Montas - 1.5-2WAR another young arm that will need to reduce his BB/9 to be successful, last year he threw just shy of 130IP I think the sox push him to the 150-160 mark.

 

Bench Sans Geo (Saladino, Pearce & Gosselin) - 1.5-2WAR first time in a long time its a younger athletic bench that should offer some interesting traits offensively.

 

Bullpen - 3-4.5WAR there is potential upside with Jones, Papelbon, Duke and even Robertson.

 

On the low end this team looks like its capable of producing 39WAR right on the cusp of the playoffs and with plenty of money to spend midseason on acquisitions one way or another, with some maturation(Sanchez, Thompson, Ozuna & Montas) and possible break outs(Eaton, Quintana & Rodon) the sox could be in the thick of it.

 

geez..... talk about a lot of hard work in this.

 

i nominate this as post of the yr.

 

great work.

[LDF]

Since moving into USCF, if the Sox don't hit HR, they lose. I wouldn't mind the Sox getting Hamilton if they changed the rules and you could steal 1B.

 

classic

[Jose Abreu]

I've been thinking a lot this post season since my last offseason plan and this is what i think is both realistic and likely, looking forward to some spirited conversation with regards to this post. Last year the sox were 1st in the AL in fWAR for starting pitching(4th overall) and 7th for relieving(16th overall) total pitching the sox were 3rd in the AL(9th overall), and dead last for hitting. Seeing how around 40WAR got you into the post season this year and how at the all star break we were still in it, there is hope to be had.

 

 

I would tender contracts to all ARB eligible players: Flowers, Garcia, Jones, Putnam & Jennings. Next I would decline Ramirez's option and pay the 1M buy out. With the free agents to be I would QO Samardzija, knowing he is going to decline, re-sign geovany soto for 2 years 6M and let Albers who was solid for us walk and beckham to never be heard from again. I think a certain subset of our fanbase would be very excited if we brought back the following players and if they're useful why not. Sign Mark Buehrle for 6.5M provided hes healthy and wants to play one more year. Sign AJ Pierzynski to a two year 7M deal with a 500k buy out. Lastly i would sign Steve Pearce to a 4M deal possibly with an additional option.

 

I would look to make the following trades:

 

C Tyler Flowers to Seattle for SS Brad Miller - Hahn has actively been trying to upgrade this spot for quite some time and the mariners are desperate for catching help since Zunino hasn't panned out. By installing Flowers as their catcher that is a swing of 1.2WAR, -.8 to .4WAR. Miller in the outfield has been a disaster for the M's and he isn't going to supplant Cano or Marte. Miller is a slighty above average defender at SS and 2B and can out produce Alexei for 1/20th of the cost.

 

RHP Erik Johnson, OF Avisail Garcia & RHP Spencer Adams for 3B Martin Prado & OF Marcell Ozuna - Miami need young cheap pitching Johnson provides that and Loria has consistently shown a propensity for not wanting to pay anyone more than league minimum, taking all of Prado's salary and their outspoken outfielder in Ozuna solves some of their issues while giving them a lottery ticket in Avisail to play in left and a promising young arm in Adams in addition to 11M freed up to pay someone like Juan Uribe this offseason. Loria is on record saying he would trade Ozuna and Ozuna has had a down year in addition to being upset about how his major league service has been handled.

 

LHP John Danks + 6M, 2B Micah Johnson & OF Courtney Hawkins for RHP Braden Shipley, LHP Cody Reed & UT Phil Gosselin - John Danks would've ranked second in fWAR and innings pitched on the d-backs staff, they've got some great young arms coming up but they need an inning eating stalwart to break their staff in. Johnson replaces Chris Owings at second base while fitting into their aggressive strategy on the base paths (2nd in SB overall in the league) and Hawkins is a change of scenery candidate going to a system that has had a lot of success in developing young hitters. Shipley appears to be a possible 3/4 on a staff in a year and a half, possibly two, Reed has a lot of potential but has issues with conditioning and is a long way away and Gosselin is a solid utility player.

 

1B Adam LaRoche for RHP Jonathan Papelbon. This is a bad contract / "cancer" swap, both are FAs after '16. LaRoche goes back to a place where he has had modest success backing up the oft injured Zimmerman and providing a left handed bat off the bench. The nats rid themselves of Papelbon and the sox get a high leverage reliever with a chip on his shoulder.

 

 

 

Payroll comes in at approximately at $115.46M; thats including Alexei's buy out, dead money from Bonifacio & Peavy and the 6M sent along with Danks to Arizona. Less than the $118.8 from last year. Some believe the sox payroll can reach 130M, put me in that camp as well but the only long shot FA I would remotely pursue would be Jason Heyward and additional veteran 5th and 6th starter types to store at AAA in case of emergency or if Montas falls on his face.

 

 

I firmly believe that Thompson has the possibility to be like Brandon Crawford and Randal Grichuk; a tools player made good on said tools even with mediocre minor league results. Moving Eaton and cementing Trayce in centerfield while adding Ozuna and relegating melky to DH and 5th outfielder drastically improves the defense; the amount that Cabrera, Eaton and Garcia gave away out there is sickening. The fact that the sox had the best starting pitching by fWAR in the AL is a testament to the staffs ability and why maybe we shouldn't be moving any of them and should be supplementing them with better defense across the diamond. Moving Cabrera who was -15 in defense to DH(-17.5) full time would barely be a decrease in his value at this point.

 

Miller provides the sox with at the very least a utility man and bridge to Anderson with the potential for a solid regular to replace Sanchez if he falters. Understandably a lot of people are skeptical of Carlos Sanchez, but he is only 23 years old and a switch hitter. The fact that he had even modest success at the major league level in the second half should be very telling, the organization loves his glove and his bat should come along. Young hitters take a while, it is even more pronounced in switch hitters especially power. Carlos could be a fixture for the sox for a long time to come and I would like to see the sox give him a very long leash.

 

This is some back of the napkin math and I look forward to hearing what others think with regards to what realistic expectations for WAR could be going into next year and defensive rating(this will be very crude and simple).

 

DH - Melky - 1-1.5 WAR, if he is capable of producing his second half the sox will be in fine shape at DH. Defensively D-

 

C - AJ & Geo - 1.5-2.5 WAR and C defensively I think we're looking at average and in the same area as Grandal and Lucroy and slightly above Flowers himself.

 

1B - Abreu - 4 WAR somewhere between his first and second full year and inline with his second half. D- defensively but luckily in this offseason plan we've got Steve Pearce to back him up late in the game and provide pop off the bench.

 

2B - Sanchez - 1.5-2WAR this him just duplicating his second half of the season and growing. A- Defensively

 

SS - Miller - 1.5-2WAR putting him back at shortstop and a change of scenery could do him wonders. B- Defensively.

 

3B - Prado - 2.5-3WAR leaving him at 3B along with a wRC+ of 100 would do wonders for this team, in addition to coming to a more hitter friendly ballpark. A+ Defensively.

 

LF - Eaton - 3.5-5WAR by moving him to left field his defense plays up we could be looking at an Alex Gordon like player if his second half is a precursor. Defensively in CF C- in LF B-.

 

CF - Thompson - 2-3WAR I stand by why I think Trayce makes the step forward. Defensively A.

 

RF - Ozuna - 1.5-3WAR a change of scenery could be what he needs to get back to the promise he previously showed. B Defensively.

 

SP - Sale - 6-8WAR if ever there was a Kershaw clone we're blessed to have him on the team.

 

SP - Quintana - 4.5-6WAR Continues to do a better impression of Andy Pettitte link.

 

SP - Buehrle - 1.5-2WAR if he is willing and healthy no reason to think he wouldn't be a great addition to this team and give a certain segment of fans something to be excited about, plus he can retire a white sox at the end of the year.

 

SP - Rodon - 2-4WAR I personally believe he reduces his BB/9 closer to league average and takes off and never looks back

 

SP - Montas - 1.5-2WAR another young arm that will need to reduce his BB/9 to be successful, last year he threw just shy of 130IP I think the sox push him to the 150-160 mark.

 

Bench Sans Geo (Saladino, Pearce & Gosselin) - 1.5-2WAR first time in a long time its a younger athletic bench that should offer some interesting traits offensively.

 

Bullpen - 3-4.5WAR there is potential upside with Jones, Papelbon, Duke and even Robertson.

 

On the low end this team looks like its capable of producing 39WAR right on the cusp of the playoffs and with plenty of money to spend midseason on acquisitions one way or another, with some maturation(Sanchez, Thompson, Ozuna & Montas) and possible break outs(Eaton, Quintana & Rodon) the sox could be in the thick of it.

Great post, but Papelbon? I don't see why anyone would want a guy who chokes his own teammates during games.

 

[Eminor3rd]

C Tyler Flowers to Seattle for SS Brad Miller - Hahn has actively been trying to upgrade this spot for quite some time and the mariners are desperate for catching help since Zunino hasn't panned out. By installing Flowers as their catcher that is a swing of 1.2WAR, -.8 to .4WAR. Miller in the outfield has been a disaster for the M's and he isn't going to supplant Cano or Marte. Miller is a slighty above average defender at SS and 2B and can out produce Alexei for 1/20th of the cost.

 

RHP Erik Johnson, OF Avisail Garcia & RHP Spencer Adams for 3B Martin Prado & OF Marcell Ozuna - Miami need young cheap pitching Johnson provides that and Loria has consistently shown a propensity for not wanting to pay anyone more than league minimum, taking all of Prado's salary and their outspoken outfielder in Ozuna solves some of their issues while giving them a lottery ticket in Avisail to play in left and a promising young arm in Adams in addition to 11M freed up to pay someone like Juan Uribe this offseason. Loria is on record saying he would trade Ozuna and Ozuna has had a down year in addition to being upset about how his major league service has been handled.

 

LHP John Danks + 6M, 2B Micah Johnson & OF Courtney Hawkins for RHP Braden Shipley, LHP Cody Reed & UT Phil Gosselin - John Danks would've ranked second in fWAR and innings pitched on the d-backs staff, they've got some great young arms coming up but they need an inning eating stalwart to break their staff in. Johnson replaces Chris Owings at second base while fitting into their aggressive strategy on the base paths (2nd in SB overall in the league) and Hawkins is a change of scenery candidate going to a system that has had a lot of success in developing young hitters. Shipley appears to be a possible 3/4 on a staff in a year and a half, possibly two, Reed has a lot of potential but has issues with conditioning and is a long way away and Gosselin is a solid utility player.

 

1B Adam LaRoche for RHP Jonathan Papelbon. This is a bad contract / "cancer" swap, both are FAs after '16. LaRoche goes back to a place where he has had modest success backing up the oft injured Zimmerman and providing a left handed bat off the bench. The nats rid themselves of Papelbon and the sox get a high leverage reliever with a chip on his shoulder.

 

I agree that all of those deals would make the team much better, but I don't think any of the opposing teams would actually make any of those deals.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Great post, but Papelbon? I don't see why anyone would want a guy who chokes his own teammates during games.

 

 

I'd take Papelbon straight up for LaRoche. It's not idea. At least Papelbon has some value as an 8th inning guy though.

[TheFutureIsNear]

I've been thinking a lot this post season since my last offseason plan and this is what i think is both realistic and likely, looking forward to some spirited conversation with regards to this post. Last year the sox were 1st in the AL in fWAR for starting pitching(4th overall) and 7th for relieving(16th overall) total pitching the sox were 3rd in the AL(9th overall), and dead last for hitting. Seeing how around 40WAR got you into the post season this year and how at the all star break we were still in it, there is hope to be had.

 

 

I would tender contracts to all ARB eligible players: Flowers, Garcia, Jones, Putnam & Jennings. Next I would decline Ramirez's option and pay the 1M buy out. With the free agents to be I would QO Samardzija, knowing he is going to decline, re-sign geovany soto for 2 years 6M and let Albers who was solid for us walk and beckham to never be heard from again. I think a certain subset of our fanbase would be very excited if we brought back the following players and if they're useful why not. Sign Mark Buehrle for 6.5M provided hes healthy and wants to play one more year. Sign AJ Pierzynski to a two year 7M deal with a 500k buy out. Lastly i would sign Steve Pearce to a 4M deal possibly with an additional option.

 

I would look to make the following trades:

 

C Tyler Flowers to Seattle for SS Brad Miller - Hahn has actively been trying to upgrade this spot for quite some time and the mariners are desperate for catching help since Zunino hasn't panned out. By installing Flowers as their catcher that is a swing of 1.2WAR, -.8 to .4WAR. Miller in the outfield has been a disaster for the M's and he isn't going to supplant Cano or Marte. Miller is a slighty above average defender at SS and 2B and can out produce Alexei for 1/20th of the cost.

 

RHP Erik Johnson, OF Avisail Garcia & RHP Spencer Adams for 3B Martin Prado & OF Marcell Ozuna - Miami need young cheap pitching Johnson provides that and Loria has consistently shown a propensity for not wanting to pay anyone more than league minimum, taking all of Prado's salary and their outspoken outfielder in Ozuna solves some of their issues while giving them a lottery ticket in Avisail to play in left and a promising young arm in Adams in addition to 11M freed up to pay someone like Juan Uribe this offseason. Loria is on record saying he would trade Ozuna and Ozuna has had a down year in addition to being upset about how his major league service has been handled.

 

LHP John Danks + 6M, 2B Micah Johnson & OF Courtney Hawkins for RHP Braden Shipley, LHP Cody Reed & UT Phil Gosselin - John Danks would've ranked second in fWAR and innings pitched on the d-backs staff, they've got some great young arms coming up but they need an inning eating stalwart to break their staff in. Johnson replaces Chris Owings at second base while fitting into their aggressive strategy on the base paths (2nd in SB overall in the league) and Hawkins is a change of scenery candidate going to a system that has had a lot of success in developing young hitters. Shipley appears to be a possible 3/4 on a staff in a year and a half, possibly two, Reed has a lot of potential but has issues with conditioning and is a long way away and Gosselin is a solid utility player.

 

1B Adam LaRoche for RHP Jonathan Papelbon. This is a bad contract / "cancer" swap, both are FAs after '16. LaRoche goes back to a place where he has had modest success backing up the oft injured Zimmerman and providing a left handed bat off the bench. The nats rid themselves of Papelbon and the sox get a high leverage reliever with a chip on his shoulder.

 

 

 

Payroll comes in at approximately at $115.46M; thats including Alexei's buy out, dead money from Bonifacio & Peavy and the 6M sent along with Danks to Arizona. Less than the $118.8 from last year. Some believe the sox payroll can reach 130M, put me in that camp as well but the only long shot FA I would remotely pursue would be Jason Heyward and additional veteran 5th and 6th starter types to store at AAA in case of emergency or if Montas falls on his face.

 

 

I firmly believe that Thompson has the possibility to be like Brandon Crawford and Randal Grichuk; a tools player made good on said tools even with mediocre minor league results. Moving Eaton and cementing Trayce in centerfield while adding Ozuna and relegating melky to DH and 5th outfielder drastically improves the defense; the amount that Cabrera, Eaton and Garcia gave away out there is sickening. The fact that the sox had the best starting pitching by fWAR in the AL is a testament to the staffs ability and why maybe we shouldn't be moving any of them and should be supplementing them with better defense across the diamond. Moving Cabrera who was -15 in defense to DH(-17.5) full time would barely be a decrease in his value at this point.

 

Miller provides the sox with at the very least a utility man and bridge to Anderson with the potential for a solid regular to replace Sanchez if he falters. Understandably a lot of people are skeptical of Carlos Sanchez, but he is only 23 years old and a switch hitter. The fact that he had even modest success at the major league level in the second half should be very telling, the organization loves his glove and his bat should come along. Young hitters take a while, it is even more pronounced in switch hitters especially power. Carlos could be a fixture for the sox for a long time to come and I would like to see the sox give him a very long leash.

 

This is some back of the napkin math and I look forward to hearing what others think with regards to what realistic expectations for WAR could be going into next year and defensive rating(this will be very crude and simple).

 

DH - Melky - 1-1.5 WAR, if he is capable of producing his second half the sox will be in fine shape at DH. Defensively D-

 

C - AJ & Geo - 1.5-2.5 WAR and C defensively I think we're looking at average and in the same area as Grandal and Lucroy and slightly above Flowers himself.

 

1B - Abreu - 4 WAR somewhere between his first and second full year and inline with his second half. D- defensively but luckily in this offseason plan we've got Steve Pearce to back him up late in the game and provide pop off the bench.

 

2B - Sanchez - 1.5-2WAR this him just duplicating his second half of the season and growing. A- Defensively

 

SS - Miller - 1.5-2WAR putting him back at shortstop and a change of scenery could do him wonders. B- Defensively.

 

3B - Prado - 2.5-3WAR leaving him at 3B along with a wRC+ of 100 would do wonders for this team, in addition to coming to a more hitter friendly ballpark. A+ Defensively.

 

LF - Eaton - 3.5-5WAR by moving him to left field his defense plays up we could be looking at an Alex Gordon like player if his second half is a precursor. Defensively in CF C- in LF B-.

 

CF - Thompson - 2-3WAR I stand by why I think Trayce makes the step forward. Defensively A.

 

RF - Ozuna - 1.5-3WAR a change of scenery could be what he needs to get back to the promise he previously showed. B Defensively.

 

SP - Sale - 6-8WAR if ever there was a Kershaw clone we're blessed to have him on the team.

 

SP - Quintana - 4.5-6WAR Continues to do a better impression of Andy Pettitte link.

 

SP - Buehrle - 1.5-2WAR if he is willing and healthy no reason to think he wouldn't be a great addition to this team and give a certain segment of fans something to be excited about, plus he can retire a white sox at the end of the year.

 

SP - Rodon - 2-4WAR I personally believe he reduces his BB/9 closer to league average and takes off and never looks back

 

SP - Montas - 1.5-2WAR another young arm that will need to reduce his BB/9 to be successful, last year he threw just shy of 130IP I think the sox push him to the 150-160 mark.

 

Bench Sans Geo (Saladino, Pearce & Gosselin) - 1.5-2WAR first time in a long time its a younger athletic bench that should offer some interesting traits offensively.

 

Bullpen - 3-4.5WAR there is potential upside with Jones, Papelbon, Duke and even Robertson.

 

On the low end this team looks like its capable of producing 39WAR right on the cusp of the playoffs and with plenty of money to spend midseason on acquisitions one way or another, with some maturation(Sanchez, Thompson, Ozuna & Montas) and possible break outs(Eaton, Quintana & Rodon) the sox could be in the thick of it.

 

I don't hate your final product at all...I just think we'd be getting ripped off on the Miami trade though. Adams and Johnson is too much for Ozuna and 1 year of Prado imo. I'd much rather have 2 talented SP's locked up for a long time. I also don't think Miller can hit any better than Sanchez or Saladino can, so while Flowers is a pretty small price to pay, I'm not sure Miller brings anything to this team. And just no to Papelbon, maybe if we were desperate for relief help, but no thanks at this time. Very well thought out and obviously well done though, I'm jealous of the visuals lol.

 

 

Also, didn't Buehrle already announce his retirement?

Edited October 27, 2015 by TheFutureIsNear

[Eminor3rd]

Are we talking about the same Brad Miller? The 105 wRC+ middle infielder?

[shysocks]

I've been thinking a lot this post season since my last offseason plan and this is what i think is both realistic and likely, looking forward to some spirited conversation with regards to this post. Last year the sox were 1st in the AL in fWAR for starting pitching(4th overall) and 7th for relieving(16th overall) total pitching the sox were 3rd in the AL(9th overall), and dead last for hitting. Seeing how around 40WAR got you into the post season this year and how at the all star break we were still in it, there is hope to be had.

I'm about to nitpick, but first I'll echo what others have said. That was a really well-constructed post and you deserve lots of credit for the work you put into it.

 

I think you'd really have to sweeten the pot for Brad Miller. He's a player with upside and a long way to go before free agency; Flowers lacks those traits. Seattle would definitely ask for more, even if C is a position of need for them.

 

I love the emphasis on fielding. You haven't acquired anyone who is really a defensive question mark. There are a couple butchers out there who I would welcome, but really anybody we get should help maximize this pitching staff's potential.

 

Most of your WAR guesses seem attainable to me, but they're also on the optimistic side. Montas, in particular, I don't quite see at that level.

[caulfield12]

What good will Prado do for just one rebuilding season?

 

If they're clearly upgrading at least 2-3 other positions, maybe.

 

But having Cabrera back in LF, LaRoche at DH...they would have to change at least two more from 2B, RF and catcher to be in a "go for it" position...and few NL players have come in and hit the ground running, just Eaton recently.

 

Not to mention the 90% probability they bring Alexei back.

Edited October 27, 2015 by caulfield12

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Even if the Sox don't get an impact hitter, they HAVE to improve the defense.

 

Just an average defense would've given the team an extra 4-5 wins minimum last year.

[beautox]

Sounds good. Forward to KW.

thanks

[beautox]

geez..... talk about a lot of hard work in this.

 

i nominate this as post of the yr.

 

great work.

Thank You, like I've spent a lot of time thinking about this since my last plan.

[beautox]

Great post, but Papelbon? I don't see why anyone would want a guy who chokes his own teammates during games.

While I agree Papelbon isn't ideal by any stretch, both teams are playing with dead money its an even contract swap of 13M. Its far more likely Papelbon would be a great club house presence trying to shake off what happened last year in DC and land one more 2-3 big money contract, than a continued ass. Worst case scenario he is terrible and we DFA him, regardless the sox were playing with the houses money at this point.

[Bob Sacamano]

What would the Nats do with LaRoche? They have Zimmerman at first who can't really play any other positions anymore.

[beautox]

I agree that all of those deals would make the team much better, but I don't think any of the opposing teams would actually make any of those deals.

Obviously I respectively disagree and i think if you calculate out each deals value along with what each asset's current value is in relation to their club these are realistic trade proposals.

 

In the case of Seattle, Miller shouldn't be playing CF let alone anywhere outside of the middle infield and he isn't going move Cano let alone Marte at this stage so he is an asset Seattle can move. I highly doubt Seattle's new GM empties what little they have in their farm for Lucroy if he could be attainable or goes and spends while likely giving up a pick for Weiters, when Flowers offers similar production for much less cost both in talent and opportunity. I see this as a similar situation as Dustin Ackley.

 

With Miami, Johnson alone is a huge overpay when considering you're taking on Prado whole salary and he has one year remaining. Ozuna had a down year and has spoken out against Loria he will be moved this offseason, not necessarily for pennies on the dollar but his value is tarnished since the whole league knows he will be moved, Now johnson alone doesn't quite get you there thats why adding a near top 100 prospect in Adams goes a long way in addition to giving them Avisail as a stop gap for one of their prospects that also offers some albeit limited upside.

 

In AZ they could use a veteran presence and more innings to break in their young rotation and while they've got a lot of depth around the diamond second base is a glaring need for them, John Danks at 9M is very reasonable for his production. To me it appears the organization has moved on from Micah and prefers Sanchez, so they need to move him before he stagnates if they don't feel that he is part of the core going forward and what little remains of Hawkins should be moved again to a franchise that is capable of developing young hitters. Two mid / back rotation starters and a 27 year old utility player seem fair but again I would like to hear why you think its too in the sox favor.

 

Already posted above about LaRoche, Papelbon but again would like to hear your opinion on it. LaRoches market is incredibly limited, The pirates have a great looking 1B at AAA ready to go in Josh Bell, the only other place i can see him landing is Baltimore if they don't re-sign Davis.

[beautox]

I'm about to nitpick, but first I'll echo what others have said. That was a really well-constructed post and you deserve lots of credit for the work you put into it.

 

I think you'd really have to sweeten the pot for Brad Miller. He's a player with upside and a long way to go before free agency; Flowers lacks those traits. Seattle would definitely ask for more, even if C is a position of need for them.

 

I love the emphasis on fielding. You haven't acquired anyone who is really a defensive question mark. There are a couple butchers out there who I would welcome, but really anybody we get should help maximize this pitching staff's potential.

 

Most of your WAR guesses seem attainable to me, but they're also on the optimistic side. Montas, in particular, I don't quite see at that level.

thank you.

 

I don't think you'd have to sweeten the pot to much more for Brad Miller maybe an outfielder like Engel or May; maybe. His value is suppressed by not being a competent outfielder and being relegated to a utility infielder due to Marte and Cano; I feel its another Dustin Ackley situation.

 

I agree others may feel we need a full on rebuild but our pitching is playoff caliber and that isn't going to change in the near future so we should be doing everything we can to enable that and i don't think its realistic to assume we're going to have a near historic worst offense again that only produces 3.1WAR. Maturation and subtle sustained improvements get the sox near 40WAR if the sox get breakouts from those I listed it'll go a long way. I think the base of those war estimates are attainable to me, and the higher number obviously representing the breakout. Obviously not everything is going to break right and there will be some steps backwards injuries and stagnation but I'm far more likely to believe the sox will have a more league average offense than a historically bad one again.

 

 

[beautox]

What good will Prado do for just one rebuilding season?

 

If they're clearly upgrading at least 2-3 other positions, maybe.

 

But having Cabrera back in LF, LaRoche at DH...they would have to change at least two more from 2B, RF and catcher to be in a "go for it" position...and few NL players have come in and hit the ground running, just Eaton recently.

 

Not to mention the 90% probability they bring Alexei back.

 

The sox have to stabilize the hole at 3B even if its for one year to at the very least see how Trey Michalczewski produces at AA, if they trade for prado and he is a fit its very likely they would re-sign him. While the team massively underperformed on offense and defense I don't think they're going to be historically bad again. As others have said improving the defense and a league average to slightly below average offense has the sox knocking on the door of the post season. That doesn't even get into the upside in the rotation still provided by Sale, Q & Rodon, a wild card in Montas and a stalwart in Danks or Mark if they bring him back and the upside remaining in the pen with Robertson, a healthy Jones and Duke getting a redo.

[Eminor3rd]

Obviously I respectively disagree and i think if you calculate out each deals value along with what each asset's current value is in relation to their club these are realistic trade proposals.

 

In the case of Seattle, Miller shouldn't be playing CF let alone anywhere outside of the middle infield and he isn't going move Cano let alone Marte at this stage so he is an asset Seattle can move. I highly doubt Seattle's new GM empties what little they have in their farm for Lucroy if he could be attainable or goes and spends while likely giving up a pick for Weiters, when Flowers offers similar production for much less cost both in talent and opportunity. I see this as a similar situation as Dustin Ackley.

 

With Miami, Johnson alone is a huge overpay when considering you're taking on Prado whole salary and he has one year remaining. Ozuna had a down year and has spoken out against Loria he will be moved this offseason, not necessarily for pennies on the dollar but his value is tarnished since the whole league knows he will be moved, Now johnson alone doesn't quite get you there thats why adding a near top 100 prospect in Adams goes a long way in addition to giving them Avisail as a stop gap for one of their prospects that also offers some albeit limited upside.

 

In AZ they could use a veteran presence and more innings to break in their young rotation and while they've got a lot of depth around the diamond second base is a glaring need for them, John Danks at 9M is very reasonable for his production. To me it appears the organization has moved on from Micah and prefers Sanchez, so they need to move him before he stagnates if they don't feel that he is part of the core going forward and what little remains of Hawkins should be moved again to a franchise that is capable of developing young hitters. Two mid / back rotation starters and a 27 year old utility player seem fair but again I would like to hear why you think its too in the sox favor.

 

Already posted above about LaRoche, Papelbon but again would like to hear your opinion on it. LaRoches market is incredibly limited, The pirates have a great looking 1B at AAA ready to go in Josh Bell, the only other place i can see him landing is Baltimore if they don't re-sign Davis.

 

RE: Seattle -- Brad Miller is much more valuable than Ackley was/is because Miller is actually hitting petty well for a MI. Yes, Seattle should move him if they don't want to play him at SS (he clearly isn't good in the OF), but they can do better than Tyler Flowers, pretty easily.

 

RE: Miami -- I disagree with the notion that players like Ozuna have less value because the league "knows he'll be moved." That makes sense (theory of leverage) if there's only one bidder, but if there are at least two serious suitors (and there will be much more than two), you create a bidding war where the winning bid approaches the level at which the buying teams value the asset. Unless the Marlins bungle it, they'll be able to get fair value out of Ozuna easily. I think we overrate the value of Adams and probably underrate the value of a solid short-term commodity like Prado.

 

RE: Arizona -- I just don't think that's enough value for those guys. Danks at $9 might be "about right," but that's not enough to actually give him surplus value -- less value than a league minimum UT guy like Gosselin. I don't think the industry values Micah Johnson as high as the White Sox have, and last year did nothing to help that case. I think Shipley is the best prospect from either side there, and controllable LHP (even if it's probably a high-leverage reliever) is probably worth Hawkins alone right now.

 

RE: Washington -- LaRoche as a backup is a waste of a roster spot, as they have younger, cheaper, more athletic mediocre 1b prospect types (Moore/Robinson) that can cover the corner OF spots if they need. Yes, they'll have all kinds of trouble moving Papelbon, but they might as well release him. Or, at least find a dead contract in a position where they need help, so a shot in the dark might be of some benefit.

Edited October 27, 2015 by Eminor3rd

[beautox]

RE: Seattle -- Brad Miller is much more valuable than Ackley was/is because Miller is actually hitting petty well for a MI. Yes, Seattle should move him if they don't want to play him at SS (he clearly isn't good in the OF), but they can do better than Tyler Flowers, pretty easily.

 

RE: Miami -- I disagree with the notion that players like Ozuna have less value because the league "knows he'll be moved." That makes sense (theory of leverage) if there's only one bidder, but if there are at least two serious suitors (and there will be much more than two), you create a bidding war where the winning bid approaches the level at which the buying teams value the asset. Unless the Marlins bungle it, they'll be able to get fair value out of Ozuna easily. I think we overrate the value of Adams and probably underrate the value of a solid short-term commodity like Prado.

 

RE: Arizona -- I just don't think that's enough value for those guys. Danks at $9 might be "about right," but that's not enough to actually give him surplus value -- less value than a league minimum UT guy like Gosselin. I don't think the industry values Micah Johnson as high as the White Sox have, and last year did nothing to help that case. I think Shipley is the best prospect from either side there, and controllable LHP (even if it's probably a high-leverage reliever) is probably worth Hawkins alone right now.

 

RE: Washington -- LaRoche as a backup is a waste of a roster spot, as they have younger, cheaper, more athletic mediocre 1b prospect types that can cover the corner OF spots if they need. Yes, they'll have all kinds of trouble moving Papelbon, but they might as well release him. Or, at least find a dead contract in a position where they need help, so a shot in the dark might be of some benefit.

 

I appreciate the fair thought out criticism.

 

RE: Seattle, While i agree SS are in demand and a few will come calling for Miller, catching across the league is in even steeper demand. The opportunity cost for a FA like Weiters or a trade target like Susac, Gary Sanchez, Plawecki or Lucroy is going to be much higher. Time will tell and we'll have to agree to disagree here.

 

RE: Miami in addition to the reasons I laid out, the FA market also suppresses Ozuna value significantly this offseason, when you have Upton, Heyward, Cespedes and Fowler available amongst others it doesn't make for the strongest trade market for him. I think we vastly underrate our prospects because as a fanbase we've been so downtrodden until recently with regards to our farm system. Miami has shown they're very capable of "bungling" it as seen by the Latos trade at the deadline.

 

RE: AZ the value of WAR is about 7.7M right now not taking into the account the inflation that is about to hit the market, it wouldn't surprise me if by the start of spring training the value of 1WAR is about 9M+ if Danks reproduces his year last year he will have surplus value between 6-9M if the sox are sending cash, Goesslin will be lucky to attain that amount of value off the bench over the next 4 years of which 3 will be ARB eating into that. With Micah while the industry might not value his skillset its very apparent that Arizona would based off their current FO philosophy and lack of options between Owings and Drury. I agree Shipley is the best prospect but as it stands his athleticism and "stuff" haven't put up the results yet in the minors and he is still 1.5+ away from possibly being a 3/4 and I think prospect swap of Reed/Hawkins is fair seeing how both have issues facing them.

 

RE: Nats I think its really going to be a challenge to move him and there aren't many other dead contracts that are remotely appealing in terms of money and years, LaRoche as a 25th man on an NL team is no worse than Matt Stairs, and that team has a recent history of struggling with injuries and a familiarness with Adam, They could do a lot worse than a bad contract swap for a lhb off the bench than simply DFA papelbon.

Edited October 27, 2015 by beautox

[LDF]

That really is good stuff beautox. Like Eminor, I just think you slighted the other teams the Sox were trading with.

 

yeah i agree,

 

like i said this was great work tox did, but to be brutally honest, i may not agree on all he wrote, but i still like it.

 

thinking outside the box.....

[beautox]

yeah i agree,

 

like i said this was great work tox did, but to be brutally honest, i may not agree on all he wrote, but i still like it.

 

thinking outside the box.....

Thanks

 

another little spreadsheet I just did comparing my off the napkin WAR to steamers in this scenario.

 

Again i have that team on the low end coming in at 39WAR. Steamer has that same team with extrapolation for playing time coming in at...36.9 That would still put us in the playoff picture.

 

Edited October 27, 2015 by beautox

[LDF]

Thanks

 

another little spreadsheet I just did comparing my off the napkin WAR to steamers in this scenario.

 

Again i have that team on the low end coming in at 39WAR. Steamer has that same team with extrapolation for playing time coming in at...36.9 That would still put us in the playoff pitcher.

 

 

no need to say thanks, i was being honest..... honestly.

 

but where i like you stuff, it all might mean nothing. the reason is, the sox org will do what the owner wants done.

[beautox]

no need to say thanks, i was being honest..... honestly.

 

but where i like you stuff, it all might mean nothing. the reason is, the sox org will do what the owner wants done.

No doubt about that Jerry is loyal to a fault. Thats why keeping the payroll near identical while bringing back fan and personal favorites like Mark and AJ make a lot of sense all the while not gutting the farm system they've been building up recently that is starting to produce results.

[LDF]

No doubt about that Jerry is loyal to a fault. Thats why keeping the payroll near identical while bringing back fan and personal favorites like Mark and AJ make a lot of sense all the while not gutting the farm system they've been building up recently that is starting to produce results.

 

yeah the owners are really loyal, that is not a lie. but i really don't think they are dumb..... ref to aj.

 

my problems with the owners are plentiful but i will not rehash it. i see the northside and what they have done and look at the sox, in a couple of years, all the fandom that is the sox will be diminishing or converting to the northside.

 

fans loves a winner.

Edited October 28, 2015 by LDF