Bob Sacamano Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 (edited) Only a few things I know for certain about this offseason: 1. Sox issue QO to Samardzija 2. Sox decline Ramirez option (though I think he comes back cheaper). The rest is too unpredictable (although I do predict we trade Quintana). Edited September 14, 2015 by soxfan2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 12:41 PM) I'm not going to wager a guess about the ceiling this time after being appropriately chastised for guessing incorrectly last year, but if they pick up Alexei's option and offer arbitration to Garcia and Flowers, they'll already have committed close to $115 million to the 2016 roster, which is comparable to what they spent in total over 2015 without any additional signings. If they spend more than about $5 million it would be the highest payroll the White Sox have ever had. Season Ticket renewal notices haven't gone out yet have they? The org itself might not know their 2016 budget yet too. I know this and you've been saying it for a year now. They planned on signing Samardzija though. How much were they willing to spend on Shark? In theory, they should be able to spend the $$ that was going to Shark on something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 02:35 PM) I know this and you've been saying it for a year now. They planned on signing Samardzija though. How much were they willing to spend on Shark? In theory, they should be able to spend the $$ that was going to Shark on something else. Presumably if they put even a respectable offer on the table for Samardzija it would have been >$15 million. If you added him to the current roster that would have put them having $130 million committed, if he was signed and Alexei's option wasn't picked up that's ~$120 million payroll, close to the highest opening day payroll in team history. If they declined Alexei and offered Heyward, that would put them back in the $130 million payroll range if those were the only major moves. However, I also note that they were looking at a substantial jump in season ticket sales last offseason when they went past $100 million by signing Cabrera. Coming off this season, they may not have the same amount of money they thought would be available when they offered Samardzija that extension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlSoxfan Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 11:41 AM) I'm not going to wager a guess about the ceiling this time after being appropriately chastised for guessing incorrectly last year, but if they pick up Alexei's option and offer arbitration to Garcia and Flowers, they'll already have committed close to $115 million to the 2016 roster, which is comparable to what they spent in total over 2015 without any additional signings. If they spend more than about $5 million it would be the highest payroll the White Sox have ever had. Season Ticket renewal notices haven't gone out yet have they? The org itself might not know their 2016 budget yet too. Cotts has us at $118 with $4.5 coming off for Kepp. after this yr. Our high was was 2011 at $127,789. I can't see Garcia and Flowers combined getting any more than the $5 mil. coming off the books for Keppinger. If/when Shark leaves that's about $10 mil there, so with a quick guess it looks like around $108 assuming they pick up Alexei. That would leave us about $20 mil away from our previous high. I know there are a number of smaller contracts leaving but I'm just guessing a rough amount. If they had planned on signing Shark you gotta figure someplace around $20 mil then we're getting close to the 2011 high mark. What all this means to me is I think they're planning on going over $127 mil. mark. How much more I don't know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 QUOTE (AlSoxfan @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 02:53 PM) Cotts has us at $118 with $4.5 coming off for Kepp. after this yr. Our high was was 2011 at $127,789. I can't see Garcia and Flowers combined getting any more than the $5 mil. coming off the books for Keppinger. If/when Shark leaves that's about $10 mil there, so with a quick guess it looks like around $108 assuming they pick up Alexei. That would leave us about $20 mil away from our previous high. I know there are a number of smaller contracts leaving but I'm just guessing a rough amount. If they had planned on signing Shark you gotta figure someplace around $20 mil then we're getting close to the 2011 high mark. What all this means to me is I think they're planning on going over $127 mil. mark. How much more I don't know? That's basically the rough numbers I used by saying Samardzija would put them close to $130 if he'd have signed and if you count filling out the roster. Worth noting that it's a fundamentally different setup than 2011 though; major drop in ticket prices since then, major drop in attendance, big bump in shared revenues, so that's the part we don't know very well right now. Also important to think about...does spending that extra $20 million and possibly totally maxing out what you can spend actually make this team competitive as is? (no). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 01:45 PM) Presumably if they put even a respectable offer on the table for Samardzija it would have been >$15 million. If you added him to the current roster that would have put them having $130 million committed, if he was signed and Alexei's option wasn't picked up that's ~$120 million payroll, close to the highest opening day payroll in team history. If they declined Alexei and offered Heyward, that would put them back in the $130 million payroll range if those were the only major moves. However, I also note that they were looking at a substantial jump in season ticket sales last offseason when they went past $100 million by signing Cabrera. Coming off this season, they may not have the same amount of money they thought would be available when they offered Samardzija that extension. They could backload some deals though. In 2017, they have roughly $70.5 million committed to Abreu, Sale, Q, Melky, Robertson, Duke, and Eaton. That figure doesn't include any arb raises for anyone else either. 2017 $$ Cabrera $17 million Abreu $13 million Robertson $12 million Sale $12 million Quintana $7 million Duke $5.5 million Eaton $4 million. Rodon will still be cheap at that point along with Fulmer and Johnson if they go that route. They should have some wiggle room if you look past 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 03:08 PM) They could backload some deals though. In 2017, they have roughly $70.5 million committed to Abreu, Sale, Q, Melky, Robertson, Duke, and Eaton. That figure doesn't include any arb raises for anyone else either. 2017 $$ Cabrera $17 million Abreu $13 million Robertson $12 million Sale $12 million Quintana $7 million Duke $5.5 million Eaton $4 million. Rodon will still be cheap at that point along with Fulmer and Johnson if they go that route. They should have some wiggle room if you look past 2016. Things definitely do clear out in 2017 a lot, but worth asking again whether this team is close enough in 2016 that giving away a chunk of that 2017 flexibility is a good idea (they're not. Maybe you make a case that you don't care because Heyward is that one special player and you'll never have as good of a chance to fill that position, but that's a different question). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Julius Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 12:41 PM) I'm not going to wager a guess about the ceiling this time after being appropriately chastised for guessing incorrectly last year, but if they pick up Alexei's option and offer arbitration to Garcia and Flowers, they'll already have committed close to $115 million to the 2016 roster, which is comparable to what they spent in total over 2015 without any additional signings. If they spend more than about $5 million it would be the highest payroll the White Sox have ever had. Season Ticket renewal notices haven't gone out yet have they? The org itself might not know their 2016 budget yet too. They will be down one season ticket holder as I will not renew. The sox won't get another $2400 from me for 4 upper deck seats. Since I do firmly believe in the rebuild/overhaul path, I will re-up if they trade Chris Sale...or if Reinsdorf sells the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlSoxfan Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 12:59 PM) That's basically the rough numbers I used by saying Samardzija would put them close to $130 if he'd have signed and if you count filling out the roster. Worth noting that it's a fundamentally different setup than 2011 though; major drop in ticket prices since then, major drop in attendance, big bump in shared revenues, so that's the part we don't know very well right now. Also important to think about...does spending that extra $20 million and possibly totally maxing out what you can spend actually make this team competitive as is? (no). I agree 20/25 mil will not make us more competitive an that's why I have a problem with a guy like Heyward. I'd love to have him, he's just what we need but we'd still have so many other needs as well. Good solid trades are whats needed but trading away our pitching(IMO our best asset) will end up costing us more to replace them. Q and Sale have very good contracts and those contracts are what keeps our budget down. I realize we have other young pitching we can trade but no where near the value that Q an Sale have in a trade. For me the way they're building this team they need to use all 3 ave. by trading, signing FA and continue drafting well. Raising payroll to a more reasonable $145 is necessary to keep what we have now and continue building a better team. The price of tea has gone up in the last few years. I'd hate to be restricted in trade talks because of how much a guy makes or will make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 My offseason plan: 1. Give qualifying offer to Samardzija 2.Decline Alexei's option (bring him back at like $4mill. $5 mi deal with the 1 mill buyout) 3. Trade Quintana maybe include Avi for a package that includes mlb/near mlb ready young position players (hopefully including a 3B, a C, an OF, and a SP spect) 4. Sign Kenta Maeda if he is posted The rest I'm not really sure on. Rotation of: 1. Sale 2. Maeda 3. Rodon 4. Danks/Fulmer 5. Johnson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Sep 16, 2015 -> 07:56 AM) My offseason plan: 1. Give qualifying offer to Samardzija 2.Decline Alexei's option (bring him back at like $4mill. $5 mi deal with the 1 mill buyout) 3. Trade Quintana maybe include Avi for a package that includes mlb/near mlb ready young position players (hopefully including a 3B, a C, an OF, and a SP spect) 4. Sign Kenta Maeda if he is posted The rest I'm not really sure on. Rotation of: 1. Sale 2. Maeda 3. Rodon 4. Danks/Fulmer 5. Johnson You really want Maeda for his expected contract after what happened to Tanaka? The overuse of pitchers in Japan is a real problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 16, 2015 -> 02:03 PM) You really want Maeda for his expected contract after what happened to Tanaka? The overuse of pitchers in Japan is a real problem. Tanaka contract..... man was that a silver bullet the sox org escape. whew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 16, 2015 -> 08:03 AM) You really want Maeda for his expected contract after what happened to Tanaka? The overuse of pitchers in Japan is a real problem. He's at 180 1/3 innings pitched now. He may have had an injury at some point this season (I'm not really sure). They (the Sox) can always ease him into it and not have him throw over 200 innings. I also feel like the Sox would have handled Tanaka a lot better than the Yankees did. I was just trying to get creative in adding pitching depth while also acquiring hitting depth (trading Q idea). I know they probably won't sign Maeda though. Edited September 16, 2015 by soxfan2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjm676 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 get rid of the following - Daniel Webb Avisail Garcia MIke Olt Tyler Flowers Micah Johnson None are MLB caliber players. Flame on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 QUOTE (bjm676 @ Sep 16, 2015 -> 10:13 AM) get rid of the following - Daniel Webb Avisail Garcia MIke Olt Tyler Flowers Micah Johnson None are MLB caliber players. Flame on... Haha you will def get flamed for saying that about Micah and Avi but I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDF Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 while many are making a very compelling and commendable optimism of a wish list. i will pray for the baseball gods to shine on this .... this team that has been leaking for many yrs and ask for something simple. to rid of and / or find replacements for. 1. RV 2. KW 3. any present 3b the sox have now. 4. buy out adam laroche contract if able. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Sep 16, 2015 -> 10:17 AM) Haha you will def get flamed for saying that about Micah and Avi but I agree with you. Not really, there are few Avi supporters and Micah hasn't proven anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 14, 2015 -> 08:08 PM) They could backload some deals though. In 2017, they have roughly $70.5 million committed to Abreu, Sale, Q, Melky, Robertson, Duke, and Eaton. That figure doesn't include any arb raises for anyone else either. 2017 $$ Cabrera $17 million Abreu $13 million Robertson $12 million Sale $12 million Quintana $7 million Duke $5.5 million Eaton $4 million. Rodon will still be cheap at that point along with Fulmer and Johnson if they go that route. They should have some wiggle room if you look past 2016. I don't know if I should laugh or cry at Melky's salary for 17. You didn't even put LaRoche's salary in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 16, 2015 -> 02:22 PM) I don't know if I should laugh or cry at Melky's salary for 17. You didn't even put LaRoche's salary in here. Because LaRoche will be gone by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackSox13 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 16, 2015 -> 02:22 PM) I don't know if I should laugh or cry at Melky's salary for 17. You didn't even put LaRoche's salary in here. Melk's contract: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/...shtml#contracts BR has him listed at 15M for 2017, not a huge difference but not 17M. LaRoche is a FA after 16. Edited September 16, 2015 by BlackSox13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Sep 16, 2015 -> 08:26 PM) Because LaRoche will be gone by then. Thank goodness. What's he make in his swan song year? 15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soxfan49 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 16, 2015 -> 08:03 AM) You really want Maeda for his expected contract after what happened to Tanaka? The overuse of pitchers in Japan is a real problem. Tanaka is 12-6 with a 3.40 ERA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 QUOTE (soxfan49 @ Sep 18, 2015 -> 11:25 AM) Tanaka is 12-6 with a 3.40 ERA. I'm aware. He's also constantly battling arm injuries due to his overuse in Japan. He won't last the duration of his contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 18, 2015 -> 01:05 PM) I'm aware. He's also constantly battling arm injuries due to his overuse in Japan. He won't last the duration of his contract. You don't think the Sox would have taken better care of him than the Yanks last year? If they were to spend that kinda money on starter from Japan, they'd ease him in and they would be good at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saufley Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 16, 2015 -> 02:31 PM) Thank goodness. What's he make in his swan song year? 15? Didn't LaRoche sign a 2 year $25 mil contract? Each year $12.5? Edited September 18, 2015 by Saufley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts