Gammons thinks Shark gets QO

[oldsox]

I can't remember the timing on the QO and the beginning of the free agency signing period. Do they overlap?

[ChiSox59]

They don't have to. Unless he blows out his arm between now and the end of the season, he will not accept a QO. No one ever has. Why would he try to re-set his free agency and come back to a place where he doesn't get along with the pitching coach and has been nothing but batting practice for almost 2 months? It isn't going to happen.

 

I also think the QO contract is similar to the arb contract where a team can cut you in spring training and be on the hook for 20 or 25 %.

 

Shark doesn't want to be a White Sox. The White Sox don't want Shark.

 

I don't think he'll accept the QO, but the more I think about it, financially, it might be his best choice.

 

Consider this - the best offer Shark may get may be something in the Ricky Nolasco / Ervin Santana range ~ 4 years and $50M. Or he can play next season for $16.5Mish (roughly 33% of the value of said 4 year contract), have a much better year, and but himself back into the $100M contract discussion.

 

Now, I don't think he'll do that because he clearly doesn't want to pitch for the Sox, but if $$ is his main motivator, he should accept the QO.

Edited September 18, 2015 by ChiSox59

[Dick Allen]

I don't think he'll accept the QO, but the more I think about it, financially, it might be his best choice.

 

Consider this - the best offer Shark may get may be something in the Ricky Nolasco / Ervin Santana range ~ 4 years and $50M. Or he can play this season for $16.5Mish (roughly 33% of the value of said 4 year contract), have a much better season in 2016, and but himself back into the $100M contract discussion.

 

Now, I don't think he'll do that because he clearly doesn't want to pitch for the Sox, but if $$ is his main motivator, he should accept the QO.

Or the White Sox can cut him in Spring Training, pay him $3.5 million and he could play for peanuts in 2016. Also, if he takes his $16 million and flops, that 4 year $50 million looks really good. Heyman's guys, as well as Olney's guys have said Shark will do much better than that.

 

He will get a QO and reject it. It's , to borrow another poster's line, 99.9999% assured.

[Bob Sacamano]

He can def do better than (or at least the very same) as Ervin Santana's deal. 4 years/$55 mill is better than 1/17. He's going to reject the QO.

[Balta1701]

Or the White Sox can cut him in Spring Training, pay him $3.5 million and he could play for peanuts in 2016. Also, if he takes his $16 million and flops, that 4 year $50 million looks really good. Heyman's guys, as well as Olney's guys have said Shark will do much better than that.

 

He will get a QO and reject it. It's , to borrow another poster's line, 99.9999% assured.

Can you give a reference on the QO being nonguaranteed? Because the CBA seems to me to say the opposite.

If the Player accepts the Qualifying Offer, he shall be a signed player for the next season on a one-year contract with a salary equal to the amount of the Qualifying Offer, and shall be eligible for in- season termination pay as set forth in Article IX, Section C if his Contract is terminated under paragraph 7(b)(2) of the Uniform Player’s Contract from the date of acceptance through the conclu- sion of the championship season.

Clause 7(b)2 which allows for outs states:

7.(b) The Club may terminate this contract upon written notice to the Player (but only after requesting and obtaining waivers of this contract from all other Major League Clubs) if the Player shall at any time:

...

(2) fail, in the opinion of the Club’s management, to exhibit suf- ficient skill or competitive ability to qualify or continue as a mem- ber of the Club’s team; or

 

Article IX seciton C states:

A Player whose Contract is terminated by a Club during the champion- ship season under paragraph 7(b)(2) of the Uniform Player’s Contract for failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability shall be enti- tled to receive termination pay from the Club in an amount equal to the unpaid balance of the full salary stipulated in paragraph 2 of his Con- tract for that season.

 

As far as the text of the CBA, unless I'm missing something, the CBA says that you can be terminated in-season but that it costs your full salary to do it. There is zero language stating anything different happens prior to the start of the championship season in the clauses I can find, can you point me tot he right one?

[fathom]

Good news about Samardzija in this, as Sox are expected to go forward with QO and he's expected to decline it.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-he...years-mlb-notes

[Balta1701]

He can def do better than (or at least the very same) as Ervin Santana's deal. 4 years/$55 mill is better than 1/17. He's going to reject the QO.

Don't forget that coming off his 2013 season where he had pitched 200 innings for the Royals he received a qualifying offer, turned it down, and wound up signing a 1/$14 mil deal with the Braves.

[greg775]

It takes a lot of guts to turn down the Sox qualifying number after putting up the stats he did this season. Basically he's probably the worst starter in baseball and this joke of a sport is about to reward him with something like five years, 100 million. LOL. And the team that signs him has to pay the entire 100 million.

[Balta1701]

Can you give a reference on the QO being nonguaranteed? Because the CBA seems to me to say the opposite.

Clause 7(b)2 which allows for outs states:

 

 

Article IX seciton C states:

 

 

As far as the text of the CBA, unless I'm missing something, the CBA says that you can be terminated in-season but that it costs your full salary to do it. There is zero language stating anything different happens prior to the start of the championship season in the clauses I can find, can you point me tot he right one?

Ah, I think I've got it. They hid a clause related to 7(b)2 earlier in Article 9:

B. Spring Training

A Player whose Contract is terminated by a Club under paragraph 7(b)(2) of the Uniform Player’s Contract for failure to exhibit suffi- cient skill or competitive ability shall be entitled to receive termination pay from the Club in an amount equal to thirty (30) days’ payment at the rate stipulated in paragraph 2 of his Contract, if the termination occurs during spring training but on or before the 16th day prior to the start of the championship season. If the termination occurs during spring training, but subsequent to the 16th day prior to the start of the championship season, the Player’s termination pay shall be in an amount equal to forty-five (45) days’ payment at the rate stipulated in paragraph 2 of his Contract.

If terminated by March 15th it'd cost $3.5 million, you're right.

[Dunt]

Heyman has an article today that pretty much suggests while Shark has cost himself some cash, probably not as much as we think. He also sort of verifies a rift with Coop.

 

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-he...years-mlb-notes

 

That right there is a big reason I dont see him accepting the QO

[harkness99]

Heymans article makes me lol...

 

I guarantee that guy has not watched Shark pitch one game this year.

 

I'm not sure that guy knows just how bad Shark has been... his fastball is okay... not great. The rest of his pitches are pure meatballs.

 

Heyman insinuates that the defense was bad and the coaching has sucked... defense can't stop the ball from being launched over the fence over and over.

 

That article was funny and out of touch.

Edited September 18, 2015 by harkness

[elrockinMT]

He will get a qualifying offer. If he doesn't take it we get a draft pick. My guess he is with this organization next year one way or the other

Edited September 18, 2015 by elrockinMT

[BlackSox13]

Heymans article makes me lol...

 

I guarantee that guy has not watched Shark pitch one game this year.

 

I'm not sure that guy knows just how bad Shark has been... his fastball is okay... not great. The rest of his pitches are pure meatballs.

 

Heyman insinuates that the defense was bad and the coaching has sucked... defense can't stop the ball from being launched over the fence over and over.

 

That article was funny and out of touch.

I especially found this quote to be hilarious...

 

"He'll get dinged a little bit, but there's too much good stuff there," one longtime market observer said. "One bad month isn't going to matter much."

 

One bad month? Let's see here.

 

April: 4.78 ERA

May : 3:00 ERA

June: 5.75 ERA

July: 2.27ERA

August: 8.82 ERA

September: 10.13ERA

 

For a guy that's supposed to be a front line starter I see more than " one bad month".

 

Whom ever Heyman spoke with needs to pass the Absinthe this way.

[ChiSox59]

It takes a lot of guts to turn down the Sox qualifying number after putting up the stats he did this season. Basically he's probably the worst starter in baseball and this joke of a sport is about to reward him with something like five years, 100 million. LOL. And the team that signs him has to pay the entire 100 million.

 

Educate yourself.

[greg775]

Educate yourself.

Check my track record. Greg's opinions 'usually' come true. I'm right way more than wrong. He's gonna get paid despite being a BP pitcher.

[Dick Allen]

Sabermetrically he is a 2.3 WAR. At $7 million a WAR, which I think is conservative, that is worth $16.1 million.

[greg775]

Sabermetrically he is a 2.3 WAR. At $7 million a WAR, which I think is conservative, that is worth $16.1 million.

I thought advanced stats had him as one of the five worst pitchers in baseball this year.

[Dick Allen]

I thought advanced stats had him as one of the five worst pitchers in baseball this year.

Fangraphs never lies. They say his performance this season is worth $18.4 million.

Edited September 18, 2015 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

Sabermetrically he is a 2.3 WAR. At $7 million a WAR, which I think is conservative, that is worth $16.1 million.

Note - in Fangraphs, he's worth 2.3 fWAR (and that number has gone down recently from >3 earlier in the year), in Baseball-reference rWAR he's worth -0.5 fWAR, so at $7 million per WAR he owes us $3.5 million for this season.

 

The Sox have a huge difference between their fWAR and rWAR numbers from their pitching staff this year, the biggest in baseball 2 weeks ago when I looked.. I think the difference is reflecting how good of a job they do respectively of turning hit balls into outs - fangraphs is giving too much credit to the pitcher and placing too much blame on the defense, while B-R is giving too much credit to the defense and placing too much blame on the pitcher. Probably "poor defensive positioning" plays into it somewhat too.

 

But beyond all that, "throwing balls that are just really easy to hit" is playing into it too, and if you believe "Jeff Samardzija is throwing a lot of baseballs that are unusually easy to hit", then you believe he's worth closer to the Baseball Reference number.

 

Fangraphs has also always bothered me a little because I think they overvalue "innings" rather than performance during those innings from starters, that's probably another ingredient.

[Dick Allen]

Note - in Fangraphs, he's worth 2.3 fWAR (and that number has gone down recently from >3 earlier in the year), in Baseball-reference rWAR he's worth -0.5 fWAR, so at $7 million per WAR he owes us $3.5 million for this seasons.

 

The Sox have a huge difference between their fWAR and rWAR numbers from their pitching staff this year, the biggest in baseball 2 weeks ago when I looked.. I think the difference is reflecting how good of a job they do respectively of turning hit balls into outs - fangraphs is giving too much credit to the pitcher and placing too much blame on the defense, while B-R is giving too much credit to the defense and placing too much blame on the pitcher. Probably "poor defensive positioning" plays into it somewhat too.

 

But beyond all that, "throwing balls that are just really easy to hit" is playing into it too, and if you believe "Jeff Samardzija is throwing a lot of baseballs that are unusually easy to hit", then you believe he's worth closer to the Baseball Reference number.

Like Belisario was "unlucky" last year. I read where Shark is getting killed on his slider this year, where last year, they barely touched it. He also has had command issues as he has already thrown 250% more sliders right down the middle than last year.Shark's numbers his last 9 starts I don't think can be blamed on poor defense. If anything, a couple of times maybe his own. But the discrepancy in WAR calculations shows maybe we take that number a little too seriously.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

There should not be a single person here who thinks we SHOULD NOT offer him a QO. That's just pure insanity.

 

Now whether he accepts it or not (I don't think he would) is up for debate, but I can't imagine why anyone would say we shouldn't offer one, that blows my mind.

[Balta1701]

There should not be a single person here who thinks we SHOULD NOT offer him a QO. That's just pure insanity.

 

Now whether he accepts it or not (I don't think he would) is up for debate, but I can't imagine why anyone would say we shouldn't offer one, that blows my mind.

Hypothetically, let's say the Sox have a payroll limit of $120 million. If they pick up Alexei and offer arbitration to people, then Samardzija puts them at or above their limit and they have to do the Alexei option right at the end of the season before they know anything about whether he'd accept. That could be a major motivation for them, depending on their forward-looking budget. If their limit is higher, then Samardzija could be "the only thing we do this offseason other than trades". That could also be a major motivation for them.

 

(Personally, if I were in his spot, I think yes I'd accept. If he turns it down, my guess remains that he stays unsigned through June 15).

[Bob Sacamano]

Hypothetically, let's say the Sox have a payroll limit of $120 million. If they pick up Alexei and offer arbitration to people, then Samardzija puts them at or above their limit and they have to do the Alexei option right at the end of the season before they know anything about whether he'd accept. That could be a major motivation for them, depending on their forward-looking budget. If their limit is higher, then Samardzija could be "the only thing we do this offseason other than trades". That could also be a major motivation for them.

 

(Personally, if I were in his spot, I think yes I'd accept. If he turns it down, my guess remains that he stays unsigned through June 15).

 

That would be the Sox luck to get nothing for him.

[ChiSox59]

Check my track record. Greg's opinions 'usually' come true. I'm right way more than wrong. He's gonna get paid despite being a BP pitcher.

 

I know your record - you're a blow hard.

 

And I was referring to your comment about Samarzijia being the worst starter in baseball. The guy has been brutal but is nowhere even remotely close to the worst SP in baseball.

[Dick Allen]

I know your record - you're a blow hard.

 

And I was referring to your comment about Samarzijia being the worst starter in baseball. The guy has been brutal but is nowhere even remotely close to the worst SP in baseball.

Greg does get ripped for saying a lot of things that actually wind up being correct. He goes way out there sometimes, I think he would admit that, but he usually as close as anyone when measuring accuracy.