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Cy Young Discussion


OmarComing25

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Nov 18, 2015 -> 09:53 AM)
Which pitcher should win the NL Cy Young?

 

Pitcher A: 5.9 fWAR, 3.39 FIP, 3.18 ERA, GB% 48%, 0.57 HR/9, 1.62 BB/9, 8.08 K/9, 222 IP, 32 starts, 200 strikeouts

 

Pitcher B: 8.6 fWAR, 1.99 FIP, 2.13 ERA, GB% 50%, 0.58 HR/9, 1.62 BB/9, 11.64 K/9, 232 IP, 33 starts, 301 strikeouts

 

Pitcher C: 7.3 fWAR, 2.35 FIP, 2.97 ERA, GB% 56.2%, 0.39 HR/9, 1.89 BB/9, 9.29 K/9, 208 IP, 32 starts, 236 strikeouts

 

Well Pitcher B is Kershaw, I have no idea who Pitcher A and C are because they don't match Greinke and Arrieta's stats

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QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Nov 18, 2015 -> 10:36 AM)
It is B but I feel Arrieta will win.

 

Maddon had a good season but I think Mahany was better. There is serious cub love right now and I think it carries over to this voting.

 

I personally think Arrieta should win MVP but not the Cy Young

 

Kershaw was the better pitcher

 

Arrieta was the most valuable player to his team

 

 

Harper is the MVP. No questions asked. Lock of the century. He put up a Barry Bonds season. Kershaw should win MVP but I agree that it'll be Arrieta.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 18, 2015 -> 10:52 AM)
I keep going back and forth between Kershaw & Arrieta. I bet Arrieta wins it because CUBS! and Greinke may take a few votes from Kershaw.

 

Kershaw should get 30 3rd place votes.

 

I'm going to guess Arrieta will get about 18 1st's and 12 2nd's.

 

Arrieta is going to win because he and Greinke are too close to call, because of the dominant 2nd half, the no-hitter, and because he's never won a Cy before. When it's very close I think some voters will give it to the guy that hasn't won before.

 

It would be cool if they both got 15 1sts and 15 2nds, because it's that close.

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QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Nov 18, 2015 -> 12:07 PM)
Honestly would be shocked if Arrieta doesn't win it, I don't think it will be as close as people think.

 

It just depends on the 30 individuals voting. Individually, it's a tough call between the two. But maybe 24 of the 30 individuals will pick Arrieta. We'll see.

 

Also, I'll take Keuchel in the AL.

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QUOTE (flavum @ Nov 18, 2015 -> 11:53 AM)
Kershaw should get 30 3rd place votes.

 

I'm going to guess Arrieta will get about 18 1st's and 12 2nd's.

 

Arrieta is going to win because he and Greinke are too close to call, because of the dominant 2nd half, the no-hitter, and because he's never won a Cy before. When it's very close I think some voters will give it to the guy that hasn't won before.

 

It would be cool if they both got 15 1sts and 15 2nds, because it's that close.

 

 

Kershaw was better than both guys though........

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Their is zero chance it will be anyone other then Arrietta. That said, if I were voting I'd give it to Greinke, followed by Jake followed by Kershaw. f*** bwar. Actual performance by Greinke (and run reduction) was absolutely incredible (as was Jake's). Stats might say one should have been better, but I award individual performance based upon real performance and results, not hypothetical shoulda woulda coulda performance.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Nov 18, 2015 -> 01:05 PM)
Their is zero chance it will be anyone other then Arrietta. That said, if I were voting I'd give it to Greinke, followed by Jake followed by Kershaw. f*** bwar. Actual performance by Greinke (and run reduction) was absolutely incredible (as was Jake's). Stats might say one should have been better, but I award individual performance based upon real performance and results, not hypothetical shoulda woulda coulda performance.

 

 

Last year, Quintana induced a popup to LCF with 2 guys on base. Eaton misplayed the ball and it landed. 2 Earned Runs scored. Examples like that are why I tend to use what should have happened rather than what actually happened. Kershaw won't win. But he's the best pitcher in baseball and he was the best last year as well.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Nov 18, 2015 -> 01:05 PM)
Their is zero chance it will be anyone other then Arrietta. That said, if I were voting I'd give it to Greinke, followed by Jake followed by Kershaw. f*** bwar. Actual performance by Greinke (and run reduction) was absolutely incredible (as was Jake's). Stats might say one should have been better, but I award individual performance based upon real performance and results, not hypothetical shoulda woulda coulda performance.

So in doing so, you're wrongly viewing all pitchers as having the same defenses behind them.

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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Nov 18, 2015 -> 11:19 AM)
So in doing so, you're wrongly viewing all pitchers as having the same defenses behind them.

Not really...I can factor in team defense myself but I think in the case of who we are talking about, Kershaw and Greinke play for the same team so I don't really need to consider defense. And, you can correct me if I'm wrong, but the award is based upon what happened, not what should have happened. Bottom line, advanced stats are great and I enjoy them and I consider them for awards, but actual performance matters too and when it comes to a pitcher, run prevention is a damn important metric, especially a starting pitcher (who has a largely sample size anyway).

 

The fact that Greinke has that much less of a Bwar to me is driven more by the fact that the advanced stats give more credit to power pitchers than they do command pitchers. Greinke was incredible. He gave up 43 runs in total in his 32 starts (with 41 being earned). Arietta was also impressive, having given up 52 total runs in his outings. Yes, both were good, but Greinke was better. Greinke also pitched with more pressure as the Dodgers offense was incredibly s***ty for most of the year (especially down the stretch) vs. Arietta's offense. Greinke also had the lower WHIP.

 

By the way, I think both of their seasons were incredible and I realize Kershaw had an absurd K/9 but he gave up a hell of a lot more runs than the other parties and that has to be considered. You could say it was bad luck that he gave up so many homers, but it happened. Bottom line, kershaw gave up 62 total runs...or 19 more than Greinke did (or 44% more). He also had a higher WHIP. Greinke could have had luck contribute to it, but the actual performance is still incredibly perfomance as it directly drives actual win / loss on the season (vs. hypothetical in a vacuum win / loss).

 

Honestly, outside of Kershaw's absurd strikeout numbers, he shouldn't even be in the competition, but because an advanced metric like WAR pushes Kershaw as better then everyone else he gets in the competition. When you account for what actually happened, Kershaw, who was incredible, just doesn't belong with the other two.

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Nov 18, 2015 -> 12:09 PM)
Kershaw had the best FIP. I'd use that over ERA any day.

Best FIP because of what. Because FIP values strike-outs more than anything out, but a good pitch still is effective. With the same defense, Greinke gave up fewer hits and had a lower WHIP. Yes, Kershaw gave up more homeruns than would be expected and he shouldn't have, but whatever, that doesn't matter because this is based upon real performance and this season he really did give up those runs.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Nov 18, 2015 -> 02:54 PM)
Best FIP because of what. Because FIP values strike-outs more than anything out, but a good pitch still is effective. With the same defense, Greinke gave up fewer hits and had a lower WHIP. Yes, Kershaw gave up more homeruns than would be expected and he shouldn't have, but whatever, that doesn't matter because this is based upon real performance and this season he really did give up those runs.

Just because they had the same defense doesn't mean it affected their performance in the exact same way. Defenses don't play the exact same way every game. Kershaw led baseball in lowest exit velocity coming off the bat. You're giving Greinke way too much credit for the outs he got without a strikeout. His absurdly low BABIP (.229 vs. a career .298) suggests he was a huge beneficiary of good luck. Hell Brett Anderson led the MLB in soft-hit% and gave up the lowest line drive rate of all qualified starters, yet behind that same defense he still had a BABIP over .300.

Edited by OmarComing25
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QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Nov 18, 2015 -> 01:08 PM)
Just because they had the same defense doesn't mean it affected their performance in the exact same way. Defenses don't play the exact same way every game. Kershaw led baseball in lowest exit velocity coming off the bat. You're giving Greinke way too much credit for the outs he got without a strikeout. His absurdly low BABIP (.229 vs. a career .298) suggests he was a huge beneficiary of good luck. Hell Brett Anderson led the MLB in soft-hit% and gave up the lowest line drive rate of all qualified starters, yet behind that same defense he still had a BABIP over .300.

Yes - Greinke might have been a beneficiary of good luck and that might mean it is unlikely that he repeats this performance going forward, however, good luck is part of what ACTUALLY happened this year and what actually drove the Dodgers to win extra games in his starts. IT ACTUALLY mattered. I understand if you want to isolate in terms of who you'd rather have in future years or who is more likely to repeat the performance because one was more driven by luck, but the award to me is based upon what actually happened during the season, not hypothetically removing / isolating the fact that a pitcher got lucky and less balls fell for hits then would normally occur. It is what actually happened during the season and awards should be based upon that.

 

The attached is a decent read...exit velocity has more to do with various hitters, although pitchers do play a factor, it is far less significant a factor than the hitters play, but still a factor and it does play to your weight on the use of exit velocity and crediting Kershaw but you also don't factor who faced better lineups and people over the course of the season (I have no idea who did and I'm sure someone can pull a stat that shows it but whatever, I'll put more credence to actual reality of what happened vs. what could have happened when given an award for who pitched the best this year).

 

I'm not about to hand out an MVP award in football based upon who got the most fantasy points or statistical measure either.

 

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-base...e-part-pitcher/

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