Flash Tizzle Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 (edited) QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 05:48 PM) You also said the White Sox should blow their bonus funds on Martinez, and they have worked him out several times. So the opposite would be no interest. Sort of contradict yourself there. Not at all, they should blow their funds on Martinez.....but probably won't. It's that simple. The opposite would be to outbid a highly sought after talent and go over our budget which (as the linked I posted above suggests) they don't do. Edited September 24, 2015 by Flash Tizzle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 QUOTE (Flash Tizzle @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 05:54 PM) Not at all, they should blow their funds on Martinez.....but probably won't. It's that simple. The opposite would be to outbid a highly sought after talent and go over our budget which (as the linked I posted above suggests) they don't do. How did they get Abreu? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 07:16 PM) How did they get Abreu? They signed a guy that was exempt from the international signing bonus penalties due to 5+ years of playing in a professional league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 06:20 PM) They signed a guy that was exempt from the international signing bonus penalties due to 5+ years of playing in a professional league. A bold free agent signing. A guy who had never played in the major leagues. The exact kind of signing you said doesn't work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 QUOTE (Flash Tizzle @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 05:54 PM) Not at all, they should blow their funds on Martinez.....but probably won't. It's that simple. The opposite would be to outbid a highly sought after talent and go over our budget which (as the linked I posted above suggests) they don't do. The fact they are working him out means that they at least have a level of interest, and signing him would put them over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 07:26 PM) A bold free agent signing. A guy who had never played in the major leagues. The exact kind of signing you said doesn't work. I very very much disagree that this is what I said "doesn't work". The Jose Abreu signing was high risk but it was potentially high reward. There was a solid chance Abreu could massively overperform his deal. He was at a discount relative to "potential performance" due to not being an experienced U.S. big leaguer. He still might underperform that deal in the long run with injury, btw. Compare that to Adam LaRoche, David Robertson, and Melky Cabrera though, there was nothing in their records that said "this guy could solidly overperform their deals". Melky Cabrera put up 2.5 fWAR last year and outside of steroids you'd think that's about as well as he could do - he was paid for about 2 fWAR, so virtually no upside. David Robertson is paid a premium as a closer - he might match that deal but it's almost impossible for a closer to outperform a $10 million/year deal. Adam LaRoche has 1 career season where he was worth >2.2 fWAR and that was while playing 1b, not DH, making him need to hit 50 home runs or something insane like that as a DH to substantially outperform his deal. Throw in Duke for money as a reliever and Samardzija for 4 big-league-caliber players and you've got the exact same mistakes. Jose Abreu had potential substantial value above his deal. Not one of those guys was likely to overperform their deals by much. If they put up their numbers from their best seasons you'd say they were a tiny sliver underpaid. I'm willing to gamble if there's a chance to win. I'm not willing to gamble if the best I can do is break even. Until we figure out that lesson, we should continue being ready for our free agent signings to underperform, because we're paying for the best they've done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 07:42 PM) I very very much disagree that this is what I said "doesn't work". The Jose Abreu signing was high risk but it was potentially high reward. There was a solid chance Abreu could massively overperform his deal. He was at a discount relative to "potential performance" due to not being an experienced U.S. big leaguer. He still might underperform that deal in the long run with injury, btw. Compare that to Adam LaRoche, David Robertson, and Melky Cabrera though, there was nothing in their records that said "this guy could solidly overperform their deals". Melky Cabrera put up 2.5 fWAR last year and outside of steroids you'd think that's about as well as he could do - he was paid for about 2 fWAR, so virtually no upside. David Robertson is paid a premium as a closer - he might match that deal but it's almost impossible for a closer to outperform a $10 million/year deal. Adam LaRoche has 1 career season where he was worth >2.2 fWAR and that was while playing 1b, not DH, making him need to hit 50 home runs or something insane like that as a DH to substantially outperform his deal. Throw in Duke for money as a reliever and Samardzija for 4 big-league-caliber players and you've got the exact same mistakes. Jose Abreu had potential substantial value above his deal. Not one of those guys was likely to overperform their deals by much. If they put up their numbers from their best seasons you'd say they were a tiny sliver underpaid. I'm willing to gamble if there's a chance to win. I'm not willing to gamble if the best I can do is break even. Until we figure out that lesson, we should continue being ready for our free agent signings to underperform, because we're paying a big premium price for them. That is funny. You don't think signing a guy to one of the biggest contracts in team history who has never played a major league game isn't a huge risk, but Players with track records are. Hindsight is a beautiful thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 08:49 PM) That is funny. You don't think signing a guy to one of the biggest contracts in team history who has never played a major league game isn't a huge risk, but Players with track records are. Hindsight is a beautiful thing. I'm willing to gamble if there's a chance to win. I'm not willing to gamble if the best I can do is break even. I'll leave it to the readers to figure out how you went from "I'm willing to gamble" to "isn't a huge risk". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boopa1219 Posted September 25, 2015 Author Share Posted September 25, 2015 QUOTE (Mike F. @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 05:21 PM) I'm sorry, but I doubt this kid is 16. He's probably 18 or 19. There is no 16 year old I know that is built like that. Look up Ronald Washington, he's an American and the top projected player in the 2017 draft, he looks just like that. So yes, it is possible for a 16 year old to look like that. Even look at college football recruits, they look like that. If Lazarito was an American, you would not doubt his age. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 (edited) Hell Courtney Hawkins looks 35 now Edited September 25, 2015 by bmags Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Aren't there a lot of teams that spent over the cap this year and last year to the point where there aren't many teams that can sign International youngsters for next period? If so, Sox should spend a LOT then. Although I wouldn't complain if they went out and got this kid and EJM now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 11:48 PM) Look up Ronald Washington, he's an American and the top projected player in the 2017 draft, he looks just like that. So yes, it is possible for a 16 year old to look like that. Even look at college football recruits, they look like that. If Lazarito was an American, you would not doubt his age. There's a kid from Hinsdale South named Josh King. He's the #1 DE recruit in the country. He won wrestling state at 220 last year as a Junior. He's 17 and is 6-6 250. He is massive. 17 so a tad older, but he definitely looks similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 07:52 AM) Aren't there a lot of teams that spent over the cap this year and last year to the point where there aren't many teams that can sign International youngsters for next period? If so, Sox should spend a LOT then. Although I wouldn't complain if they went out and got this kid and EJM now Yes. Braves are supposedly loading up on the 2016 class. Already have agreements in place for next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 Throw a 16 year old Greg Oden into that mix as well. Zach Randolph also looked about 22 when I met him at 16 years old as a Soph in HS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 08:50 AM) Yes. Braves are supposedly loading up on the 2016 class. Already have agreements in place for next year. Might as well go all-in next summer then if Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers can't spend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 09:27 AM) Might as well go all-in next summer then if Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers can't spend If we do not go over next summer I will be very disappointed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 QUOTE (Mike F. @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 05:21 PM) I'm sorry, but I doubt this kid is 16. He's probably 18 or 19. There is no 16 year old I know that is built like that. QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 08:50 AM) There's a kid from Hinsdale South named Josh King. He's the #1 DE recruit in the country. He won wrestling state at 220 last year as a Junior. He's 17 and is 6-6 250. He is massive. 17 so a tad older, but he definitely looks similar. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 08:52 AM) Throw a 16 year old Greg Oden into that mix as well. Zach Randolph also looked about 22 when I met him at 16 years old as a Soph in HS. Yup. Hell, I'm this guy's age and I'm taller than him. I don't doubt him being 16. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxFanMike Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 12:19 PM) Yup. Hell, I'm this guy's age and I'm taller than him. I don't doubt him being 16. How tall are you? I'm 16, almost 17 and I'm only 5'9" ish. There's a few really tall kids that I know, but none of them are that muscular. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 QUOTE (Mike F. @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 12:28 PM) How tall are you? I'm 16, almost 17 and I'm only 5'9" ish. There's a few really tall kids that I know, but none of them are that muscular. 16, and 6'3. Was supposed to be 5'10/5'11. I'm definitely not as muscular as this guy though My point is, there are definitely 16 year old kids out there who are close to, at, or above his height/weight, with myself being an example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxFanMike Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 12:30 PM) 16, and 6'3. Was supposed to be 5'10/5'11. I'm definitely not as muscular as this guy though My point is, there are definitely 16 year old kids out there who are close to, at, or above his height/weight, with myself being an example. This kids height isn't that surprising, but I was referring more to his muscular stature than anything else. The guy is ripped. Even the most muscular kids I know aren't like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 I think we need to sign this guy pronto. Sox need players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boopa1219 Posted September 27, 2015 Author Share Posted September 27, 2015 QUOTE (Mike F. @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 12:35 PM) This kids height isn't that surprising, but I was referring more to his muscular stature than anything else. The guy is ripped. Even the most muscular kids I know aren't like that. Again look at college football recruits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harfman77 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Sep 27, 2015 -> 11:01 AM) Again look at college football recruits Football recruits look like that at 18 not 16, unless you are talking about Leonard Fournette, than yes he looks like a freak of nature football recruit. The difference is that a physique like that does not translate as well as baseball as it does in football. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harfman77 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Sep 24, 2015 -> 12:42 PM) I would wait to sign him till the 2016 signing period. The dude is pretty determined and that bodes well for his success and according to the picture of that accompanied the article, he is a physical specimen. Get him now, there are plenty of other young Cuban guys out there to make it worth your while to go over the limit this year and all alot closer to the majors then the guys the Sox would be signing on the next two July signing periods. Now is the perfect time to bust the limit with the abundance of players available, the depth of position players in the Sox system, and the impending international draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boopa1219 Posted September 28, 2015 Author Share Posted September 28, 2015 QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Sep 28, 2015 -> 11:02 AM) Get him now, there are plenty of other young Cuban guys out there to make it worth your while to go over the limit this year and all alot closer to the majors then the guys the Sox would be signing on the next two July signing periods. Now is the perfect time to bust the limit with the abundance of players available, the depth of position players in the Sox system, and the impending international draft. Completely disagree, the 2016 INTL class is supposed to be the best it's been in years and Sox would not be willing to pay the overage fee on those contracts for Cuban as opposed to 16 kids in the Dominicans because of how expensive they are compared to theit LA counterparts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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