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Tonight could be Rodon's last 2015 start


southsider2k5

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 25, 2015 -> 09:15 PM)
Dan Hayes ‏@CSNHayes 6m6 minutes ago

 

Sounds like tonight could be Carlos Rodon's last start for #WhiteSox.

 

 

I have to say this was a good learning year for him. He has done really well for a first year pitcher. I think he is learning that he must attack the strike zone and be aggressive as well as improve that control.

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QUOTE (shysocks @ Sep 28, 2015 -> 12:32 PM)
Is there anybody here who wouldn't call Rodon's rookie year a resounding success? It's been really satisfying to watch.

 

His rookie year has been pretty close to a best case scenario when you consider how long he spent in the minors and the defense he had playing behind him.

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QUOTE (shysocks @ Sep 28, 2015 -> 12:32 PM)
Is there anybody here who wouldn't call Rodon's rookie year a resounding success? It's been really satisfying to watch.

 

Oh, for sure. He has put up a 2.0 WAR in 139 IP. Adjust that for a 200 IP year next season, and that's about a 3 WAR without accounting for ANY improvement.

 

But we have already seen improvement out of him as the season has gone on. His 2nd half versus his 1st half splits.....

 

1st half - 66 IP, 3.80 ERA, 8.95 H/9, 9.22 K/9, 5.56 BB/9, 1.65 K/BB, 1.61 WHIP

2nd half - 73 IP, 3.70 ERA, 7.89 H/9, 8.75 K/9, 3.69 BB/9, 2.37 K/BB, 1.28 WHIP

 

Not a drastic improvement (other than BB/9), but it's steady improvement. Now you in to it even further and look at his numbers since August 11th......

 

Aug 11th - 54.2 IP, 1.81 ERA, 6.25 H/9, 8.07 K/9, 3.45 BB/9, 2.34 K/BB, 1.08 WHIP

 

 

I would say this has been a great rookie campaign for him. Probably a top 3 ROY pitcher in the AL. I would feel confident saying he could become a 3.5 to 4 WAR pitcher next season, and if you count Sale with is usual 6+, and Quintana with his usual 5+ WAR. That's a helluva top 3 in a rotation. Not many teams, if any, have 15 wins out of their top 3 in the rotation.

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QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Sep 28, 2015 -> 01:02 PM)
Oh, for sure. He has put up a 2.0 WAR in 139 IP. Adjust that for a 200 IP year next season, and that's about a 3 WAR without accounting for ANY improvement.

 

But we have already seen improvement out of him as the season has gone on. His 2nd half versus his 1st half splits.....

 

1st half - 66 IP, 3.80 ERA, 8.95 H/9, 9.22 K/9, 5.56 BB/9, 1.65 K/BB, 1.61 WHIP

2nd half - 73 IP, 3.70 ERA, 7.89 H/9, 8.75 K/9, 3.69 BB/9, 2.37 K/BB, 1.28 WHIP

 

Not a drastic improvement (other than BB/9), but it's steady improvement. Now you in to it even further and look at his numbers since August 11th......

 

Aug 11th - 54.2 IP, 1.81 ERA, 6.25 H/9, 8.07 K/9, 3.45 BB/9, 2.34 K/BB, 1.08 WHIP

 

 

I would say this has been a great rookie campaign for him. Probably a top 3 ROY pitcher in the AL. I would feel confident saying he could become a 3.5 to 4 WAR pitcher next season, and if you count Sale with is usual 6+, and Quintana with his usual 5+ WAR. That's a helluva top 3 in a rotation. Not many teams, if any, have 15 wins out of their top 3 in the rotation.

 

 

In fact, just for fun and because I'm bored.....let's look at the top pitcher teams this year and see....

 

Dodgers - 15.1 WAR (Kershaw, Greinke, Anderson)

Cubs - 14.5 WAR (Arrieta, Lester, Kendricks)

Sox - 13.6 WAR (Sale, Q, Shark)

Indians - 12.9 WAR (Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar)

Astros - 12.4 WAR (Keuchel, McHugh, McCullers)

Mets - 12.2 WAR (DeGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard)

Nats - 12.0 WAR (Max, Gio, Strasburg)

Pirates - 11.9 WAR (Cole, Liriano, Burnett)

Cards - 10. WAR (Lackey, Martinez, Garcia)

 

 

So looks like the Dodgers got there (90% of it from their top 2). The Cubs will probably get there as well.

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QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Sep 28, 2015 -> 01:02 PM)
Oh, for sure. He has put up a 2.0 WAR in 139 IP. Adjust that for a 200 IP year next season, and that's about a 3 WAR without accounting for ANY improvement.

 

But we have already seen improvement out of him as the season has gone on. His 2nd half versus his 1st half splits.....

 

1st half - 66 IP, 3.80 ERA, 8.95 H/9, 9.22 K/9, 5.56 BB/9, 1.65 K/BB, 1.61 WHIP

2nd half - 73 IP, 3.70 ERA, 7.89 H/9, 8.75 K/9, 3.69 BB/9, 2.37 K/BB, 1.28 WHIP

 

Not a drastic improvement (other than BB/9), but it's steady improvement. Now you in to it even further and look at his numbers since August 11th......

 

Aug 11th - 54.2 IP, 1.81 ERA, 6.25 H/9, 8.07 K/9, 3.45 BB/9, 2.34 K/BB, 1.08 WHIP

 

 

I would say this has been a great rookie campaign for him. Probably a top 3 ROY pitcher in the AL. I would feel confident saying he could become a 3.5 to 4 WAR pitcher next season, and if you count Sale with is usual 6+, and Quintana with his usual 5+ WAR. That's a helluva top 3 in a rotation. Not many teams, if any, have 15 wins out of their top 3 in the rotation.

Good stuff, thanks for pulling that together. One additional thing I want to point out is that even though his K/9 dropped in the second half, it's really just because the innings that made up his personal "/9" got shorter. The percentage of batters faced that he struck out remained effectively identical, from 23.0% to 22.8%. I think I also saw a stat somewhere that he went from using 19 pitches per inning to 15.

 

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QUOTE (shysocks @ Sep 28, 2015 -> 06:17 PM)
Good stuff, thanks for pulling that together. One additional thing I want to point out is that even though his K/9 dropped in the second half, it's really just because the innings that made up his personal "/9" got shorter. The percentage of batters faced that he struck out remained effectively identical, from 23.0% to 22.8%. I think I also saw a stat somewhere that he went from using 19 pitches per inning to 15.

 

either way, with all the stats that are out there, everyone should be able to see, it was improving. the sox did a hell of a job with him this yr. i really had my doubts with all the other BS happening. nice to see the great work done by the sox coaches.

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