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10/2 vs Detroit Tigers


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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Oct 3, 2015 -> 03:49 PM)
He has a 2.74 FIP.

3.35 in the second half though, and 4.32 in September/October. However, a large part of that is giving up HR on over 20% of his flyballs, which probably won't happen again. That said, he really needs to cut down on HRs next year.

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QUOTE (Mike F. @ Oct 3, 2015 -> 06:50 PM)
So does that mean that his ERA should be 2.74 if everything happened like it should have? I'm not that familiar on the stat. Thanks.

FIP is supposed to express what a pitcher can control based on their strikeout and home run rates. In other words, it's supposed to be "what the ERA might look like with an average defense". However, it isn't perfect; if a pitcher falls apart when he's pitching from the stretch or a pitcher gives up lots of hits to areas where the defense isn't ready for, it will give him more credit than he actually deserves (the white sox this year have a huge difference between their ERA and FIP, the biggest in the league, suggesting something really systematic).

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 3, 2015 -> 06:12 PM)
FIP is supposed to express what a pitcher can control based on their strikeout and home run rates. In other words, it's supposed to be "what the ERA might look like with an average defense". However, it isn't perfect; if a pitcher falls apart when he's pitching from the stretch or a pitcher gives up lots of hits to areas where the defense isn't ready for, it will give him more credit than he actually deserves (the white sox this year have a huge difference between their ERA and FIP, the biggest in the league, suggesting something really systematic).

If you have the worst defense in the league, you should have the biggest ERA-FIP gap, that makes perfect sense considering FIP completely ignores defense.

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QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Oct 3, 2015 -> 07:15 PM)
If you have the worst defense in the league, you should have the biggest ERA-FIP gap, that makes perfect sense considering FIP completely ignores defense.

Another point I forgot - the ballpark effect also plays in. The Rockies have the worst ERA in the league and their xFIP is 0.73 better than their ERA. The White Sox's xFIP is 0.18 better than their ERA, which is their defense playing a role probably. Other teams with a bad defense over the year, like the A's, don't have large differences - their ERA almost matches their xFIP, so other things not in either formula like defensive positioning are playing a role as well.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 3, 2015 -> 06:19 PM)
Another point I forgot - the ballpark effect also plays in. The Rockies have the worst ERA in the league and their xFIP is 0.73 better than their ERA. The White Sox's xFIP is 0.18 better than their ERA, which is their defense playing a role probably. Other teams with a bad defense over the year, like the A's, don't have large differences - their ERA almost matches their xFIP, so other things not in either formula like defensive positioning are playing a role as well.

Also, our ERA-FIP gap used to be much larger. The difference is now only 0.16, less than the Phillies, Rockies, Tigers, Nationals, and Padres. We're far from having the biggest gap, it's largely closed over the past couple of months.

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QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Oct 3, 2015 -> 06:27 PM)
Also, our ERA-FIP gap used to be much larger. The difference is now only 0.16, less than the Phillies, Rockies, Tigers, Nationals, and Padres. We're far from having the biggest gap, it's largely closed over the past couple of months.

Thanks Saladino, Sanchez, and Thompson!

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