Why NOT trade Chris Sale?

[nitetrain8601]

Sox aren't getting Seager, Pederson, Urias and DeLeon for Sale. You have to be smoking serious rocks if you think that. Your best bet is to get two of those guys and maybe Puig while also taking on Carl Crawford's contract.

[Quin]

Sox aren't getting Seager, Pederson, Urias and DeLeon for Sale. You have to be smoking serious rocks if you think that. Your best bet is to get two of those guys and maybe Puig while also taking on Carl Crawford's contract.

 

Yeah, Sox aren't doing that.

[nitetrain8601]

Yeah, Sox aren't doing that.

 

I don't know why they wouldn't. To get 3 potential studs for one? That's an easy yes to me.

[Quin]

I don't know why they wouldn't. To get 3 potential studs for one? That's an easy yes to me.

 

Because Greinke and Price just upped Sale's value.

 

You have a proven ace that's on the most team friendly deal in baseball. So suddenly the Sox are going to take let's say....

 

Crawford as dead weight and more expensive than Sale.

Puig on a down year with attitude issues.

Pederson who faltered down the stretch.

And Urias, who hasn't seen the bigs.

 

Kyle Drabek once was the centerpiece for Roy Halladay. Mike Olt was a Top 20 prospect in baseball as the centerpiece for Matt Garza. Jacob Turner was an important piece for Anibal Sanchez, who led the league in ERA the following year. Gordon Beckham was a legitimately viable centerpiece for Adrian Gonzalez when A-Gon went on to hit .338 for Boston.

 

That's just people who have been tied to the Sox. Look at Profar for a former #1 overall prospect, can't miss stud who is looking like a miss. Or Jesus Montero.

 

"Can't miss prospects" miss all the time. So if the Sox are dealing the best contract in baseball, they get all the cards.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Sox aren't getting Seager, Pederson, Urias and DeLeon for Sale. You have to be smoking serious rocks if you think that. Your best bet is to get two of those guys and maybe Puig while also taking on Carl Crawford's contract.

So for the most valuable pitcher in baseball, we get one of the four I mentioned, plus Puig coming off a down year and now with more off-field issues and we have to take on Carl Crawford.....right and I'm the one smoking crack...yah agree to disagree on that one.

Edited December 5, 2015 by SouthSideSale

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Because Greinke and Price just upped Sale's value.

 

You have a proven ace that's on the most team friendly deal in baseball. So suddenly the Sox are going to take let's say....

 

Crawford as dead weight and more expensive than Sale.

Puig on a down year with attitude issues.

Pederson who faltered down the stretch.

And Urias, who hasn't seen the bigs.

 

Kyle Drabek once was the centerpiece for Roy Halladay. Mike Olt was a Top 20 prospect in baseball as the centerpiece for Matt Garza. Jacob Turner was an important piece for Anibal Sanchez, who led the league in ERA the following year. Gordon Beckham was a legitimately viable centerpiece for Adrian Gonzalez when A-Gon went on to hit .338 for Boston.

 

That's just people who have been tied to the Sox. Look at Profar for a former #1 overall prospect, can't miss stud who is looking like a miss. Or Jesus Montero.

 

"Can't miss prospects" miss all the time. So if the Sox are dealing the best contract in baseball, they get all the cards.

 

While I do agree with you about prospects missing all the time, they still hold significant value to clubs because of how huge of dividends they can pay if they DO hit. Trading for top prospects is high risk/high reward. It's like saying there is no value in being given $100,000 worth of lottery tickets because the chances of winning the lottery are so slim anyway.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

While I do agree with you about prospects missing all the time, they still hold significant value to clubs because of how huge of dividends they can pay if they DO hit. Trading for top prospects is high risk/high reward. It's like saying there is no value in being given $100,000 worth of lottery tickets because the chances of winning the lottery are so slim anyway.

Agree with both of ya. I also think now is the time to move Sale if you have a a crazy package. I prefer Q of the two. If I move Sale, I move Q also. Load up on young talent.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Agree with both of ya. I also think now is the time to move Sale if you have a a crazy package. I prefer Q of the two. If I move Sale, I move Q also. Load up on young talent.

 

I don't agree with moving Sale because no team is willing to give up the value he is worth. You could hold on to Sale and trade him with 2 years left on his deal and STILL get an enormous package for him, while giving your team 2 more years of trying to contend.

 

The reason I am an advocate of moving Quintana is because I feel someone may actually pay for what Q is worth, and this team will STILL have it's ace. You trade your perennial Cy Young contending ace, and you are punting on the near future. You move Quintana, and you can still have a solid rotation if you replace him with a FA pitcher and Rodon continues to make strides, while using the return package for Quintana to upgrade offensive/defensive needs and still contending for the next couple years. THEN, if the team is still treading water, trade Sale with 2 years remaining and you'll still get a kings ransom in return.

[Quin]

I don't agree with moving Sale because no team is willing to give up the value he is worth. You could hold on to Sale and trade him with 2 years left on his deal and STILL get an enormous package for him, while giving your team 2 more years of trying to contend.

 

The reason I am an advocate of moving Quintana is because I feel someone may actually pay for what Q is worth, and this team will STILL have it's ace. You trade your perennial Cy Young contending ace, and you are punting on the near future. You move Quintana, and you can still have a solid rotation if you replace him with a FA pitcher and Rodon continues to make strides, while using the return package for Quintana to upgrade offensive/defensive needs and still contending for the next couple years. THEN, if the team is still treading water, trade Sale with 2 years remaining and you'll still get a kings ransom in return.

 

I agree with this. If I have to move one of them, it's Q.

 

But if you trade Sale, then you might as well have an open house on anyone not named Rodon.

[Y2Jimmy0]

The Greinke and Price deals basically made Chris Sale untradeable. There probably isn't a team in baseball that would pay what would be necessary to acquire him. ZIPS projected that if Sale were a free agent right now, he'd get $299 million over 10 years. He's locked up through 2019 at no $$. That Dodgers package would start Urias, Seager and keep going. Sale is as close to untouchable as it gets.

[Quin]

The Greinke and Price deals basically made Chris Sale untradeable. There probably isn't a team in baseball that would pay what would be necessary to acquire him. ZIPS projected that if Sale were a free agent right now, he'd get $299 million over 10 years. He's locked up through 2019 at no $$. That Dodgers package would start Urias, Seager and keep going. Sale is as close to untouchable as it gets.

 

Holy hell where is that ZIPS projection?

 

[GGajewski18]

Holy hell where is that ZIPS projection?

 

Dan Szymborski

‏@DSzymborski

ZiPS suggests Kershaw would make $45 million a year in free agency right now! And Sale 10/299.

 

Here's the tweet.

[Bob Sacamano]

Dan Szymborski

‏@DSzymborski

ZiPS suggests Kershaw would make $45 million a year in free agency right now! And Sale 10/299.

 

Here's the tweet.

 

Right now yes. 4 years from now? No. He'll blow that away.

 

[ChiSoxFanMike]

I hate seeing the comments that say the Sox should trade Sale because of his "injury concerns".

 

How is he that different from any other pitcher? Yeah, he has a funky motion, but he's so tall and lanky that I don't think it's as bad for his elbow/arm/shoulder as people make it out to be.

 

People have said that he's a TJ surgery waiting to happen since the day he was drafted, and nothing significant has happened to him yet. Knock on wood that nothing ever does.

[LDF]

I hate seeing the comments that say the Sox should trade Sale because of his "injury concerns".

 

How is he that different from any other pitcher? Yeah, he has a funky motion, but he's so tall and lanky that I don't think it's as bad for his elbow/arm/shoulder as people make it out to be.

 

People have said that he's a TJ surgery waiting to happen since the day he was drafted, and nothing significant has happened to him yet. Knock on wood that nothing ever does.

 

excellent point, i have stop fighting this fight. my canned answer is by default, all pitchers are candidates.

[Balta1701]

I hate seeing the comments that say the Sox should trade Sale because of his "injury concerns".

 

How is he that different from any other pitcher? Yeah, he has a funky motion, but he's so tall and lanky that I don't think it's as bad for his elbow/arm/shoulder as people make it out to be.

 

People have said that he's a TJ surgery waiting to happen since the day he was drafted, and nothing significant has happened to him yet. Knock on wood that nothing ever does.

Well, he has complained of arm and elbow soreness at least 2 times during his career, during one of those stints he wound up on the DL for over a month/having an MRI due to elbow soreness in 2014. That's something we haven't said about any of the other guys on our roster any time in recent years.

[Jose Abreu]

Well, he has complained of arm and elbow soreness at least 2 times during his career, during one of those stints he wound up on the DL for over a month/having an MRI due to elbow soreness in 2014. That's something we haven't said about any of the other guys on our roster any time in recent years.

One of those times was purely due to Robin's idiocy. He left him out there for 127 pitches in early April of 2014. He was basically asking for Sale to be sore/injured the next day.

[Balta1701]

One of those times was purely due to Robin's idiocy. He left him out there for 127 pitches in early April of 2014. He was basically asking for Sale to be sore/injured the next day.

"A guy can't handle the workload you want him to handle" is the kind of thing that at least makes him seem like an elevated injury risk. You can even throw the White Sox begging for him to get extra rest at the 2015 AS break and then having a terrible month afterwards into that pot.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Sale does seem to get fatigued towards the end of each season, but I think that's just because he's tired as opposed to being injured. Like Jose said, one of his elbow injuries came on the heels of one of the worst managerial decisions I've ever seen and the other one came off of his 8 start streak of 10 of more K's when he clearly was giving it everything he had as well.

[BlackSox13]

I can understand the concerns over Sale's health. His thin frame and throwing across his body can't be easy on the elbow or lower back, just ask Randy Johnson about back issues. I'm not saying Sale will have problems with his elbow or back, just saying his delivery could potentially cause future issues. It's quite possible he never has major issues though so I just try and enjoy watching him pitch every chance I get and not think too much about what could happen.

[Dick Allen]

I hate seeing the comments that say the Sox should trade Sale because of his "injury concerns".

 

How is he that different from any other pitcher? Yeah, he has a funky motion, but he's so tall and lanky that I don't think it's as bad for his elbow/arm/shoulder as people make it out to be.

 

People have said that he's a TJ surgery waiting to happen since the day he was drafted, and nothing significant has happened to him yet. Knock on wood that nothing ever does.

Every pitcher is a significant injury risk. It is just a matter of time. I read something many years ago that everyone's hair eventually turns gray. You might not live long enough for it to happen, but it would eventually happen. I feel the same way with pitchers and elbows and shoulders. Not many make it through a long career unscathed.

[iamshack]

While I do agree with you about prospects missing all the time, they still hold significant value to clubs because of how huge of dividends they can pay if they DO hit. Trading for top prospects is high risk/high reward. It's like saying there is no value in being given $100,000 worth of lottery tickets because the chances of winning the lottery are so slim anyway.

Fair point...but this is slightly different.

 

In order to move Sale, you are not just looking at lottery tickets, but lottery tickets that at this time, appear to have a much better chance to hit at this time. Pederson or Urias are like lottery tickets where the first 4 elements of the jackpot have been scratched off, and just the last element remains, still unscratched.

 

At that point, the fanbase is aware and excited about this - they are eagerly awaiting that final element to be scratched off.

 

While teams obviously recognize the value these "lottery tickets" hold, it is easier for them to trade them away when less of that potential has been revealed. Even if the correct move from an economic standpoint would be to move any prospects, regardless of their potential for a cost-controlled ace such as Chris Sale, teams like Boston or Arizona may still be more likely to hand over the long-term contract to Price and Greinke because of the pull created by those first four elements of the lottery ticket matching the jackpot.

 

That makes trading Sale even more difficult.

[nitetrain8601]

Because Greinke and Price just upped Sale's value.

 

You have a proven ace that's on the most team friendly deal in baseball. So suddenly the Sox are going to take let's say....

 

Crawford as dead weight and more expensive than Sale.

Puig on a down year with attitude issues.

Pederson who faltered down the stretch.

And Urias, who hasn't seen the bigs.

 

Kyle Drabek once was the centerpiece for Roy Halladay. Mike Olt was a Top 20 prospect in baseball as the centerpiece for Matt Garza. Jacob Turner was an important piece for Anibal Sanchez, who led the league in ERA the following year. Gordon Beckham was a legitimately viable centerpiece for Adrian Gonzalez when A-Gon went on to hit .338 for Boston.

 

That's just people who have been tied to the Sox. Look at Profar for a former #1 overall prospect, can't miss stud who is looking like a miss. Or Jesus Montero.

 

"Can't miss prospects" miss all the time. So if the Sox are dealing the best contract in baseball, they get all the cards.

 

 

So for the most valuable pitcher in baseball, we get one of the four I mentioned, plus Puig coming off a down year and now with more off-field issues and we have to take on Carl Crawford.....right and I'm the one smoking crack...yah agree to disagree on that one.

 

As good as Chris Sale is, and he's damn great, you are underselling what the Dodgers have in those prospects. You're talking about 3 ready made prospects off the bat. You're talking about their 2013, 2014, 2015 #1 Prospects in their organization, an OF who has proven he is one of the most electrifying players in baseball coming off a down year. Where is the precedent for a team to get 3 highly rated, MLB ready prospects in a deal for an ace pitcher?

 

First number is their Dodger rank, 2nd is rank amongst the rest of prospects.

 

In 2013 - Puig - #1/#47

In 2014 - Pederson - #1/#34

In 2014 - Seager - #2/#37

In 2014 - Urias - #3/#51

In 2015 - Seager - #1/#5

In 2015 - Pederson - #2/#8

In 2015 - Urias - #3/#10

 

The midseason rankings had Seager at #1 overall prospect in baseball. Urias #4. Pederson no longer qualified as he started the season up with the big league club. And he started off flaming hot at that. Urias is only 18 years old and he's the #4 prospect in baseball as of midseason last year. Puig, even with his crap year last year, has a career line of .294avg / .371 OBP / .487 SLG% / .858OPS / 141 OPS+. His WAR has been 4.9, 5.3, and 1.1 for a total of 11.3 in only 3 years.

 

I love me Chris Sale. He's great. Best pitcher I've ever seen in a White Sox uniform in my lifetime. I'll argue with anyone that he may be the best pitcher in baseball. But you are asking for 3 prospects who have shown great improvement every year, becoming as high as 3 top ten prospects in all of baseball, plus a stud OF who struggled last year and still put up a positive WAR last year, without taking on Carl Crawford's salary on top of that?

 

Again, I ask, what's the precedence?

Edited December 5, 2015 by nitetrain8601

[OmarComing25]

I think the Dodgers would hesitate at just a Seager and Urias for Sale swap, Friedman is really big on his prospects.

Edited December 5, 2015 by OmarComing25

[nitetrain8601]

I think the Dodgers would hesitate at just a Seager and Urias for Sale swap, Friedman is really big on his prospects.

 

I think so as well. And they still value Puig very highly. That's why for me, I think a Seager, Pederson/Verdugo would be fine. If you can squeeze out Puig from them too, that would be great.