Why NOT trade Chris Sale?

[harfman77]

Just because a SP only pitches once every 5 days doesn't mean they aren't as valuable as position players. And DA is right, the days of overwhelming prospect offers are over. Everyone loves their prospects now, and GMs are going to be too gun-shy to pull the trigger on the deal it would take, especially with the general risk that pitchers have.

 

What it means is that there are 80% of the games they have zero contribution to winning, whereas position players have an impact on ~95% of games. I understand the importance of good pitching, but good pitching with nothing else around it is worthless.

[harfman77]

Teams don't give that up anymore. That is why, despite all the prospects Boston has to acquire an ace, they overbid every other team by more than $30 million to get Price. You can get lucky, and have some secondary guys pan out, but the overwhelming offer isn't going to be there.

 

I am not sure that Boston is done adding pitching yet either though. They have some big holes in that rotation still.

[Whisox05]

Just because a SP only pitches once every 5 days doesn't mean they aren't as valuable as position players. And DA is right, the days of overwhelming prospect offers are over. Everyone loves their prospects now, and GMs are going to be too gun-shy to pull the trigger on the deal it would take, especially with the general risk that pitchers have.

 

I dont believe that GMs are going to be to gun shy to pull the triggers on deals. Same would be saying GMs are hesitant for giving out to much money to free agents. Somebody always does give up alot to get something back. Hahn even said on the interview saying that with how much pitchers like price and greinke are getting that some GMs are turning to trading for pitchers. The Rangers took a shot at hamels and got them to the playoffs. Because the diversity of teams in baseball very from having big money to needing to be economical changes that way things are done some time can't spend the bigger money on needs but can acquire it with trades cause they have a ton of prospects. Rockies stay can't spend huge money on pitchers and because if where they play big time pitchers hesitate on playing there so with them having the 3rd best farm system in baseball the can try to acquire them with prospects

Edited December 4, 2015 by WhiteSoxLifer

[Dick Allen]

I just saw an overwhelming prospect deal for a closer a week ago. Those days are not over, actually I think things are going to start moving more in that direction again since you have a few teams with such a large concentration of prospects that are trying to win now (Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs).

Boston traded the 25th and 76th rated prospects plus 2 other guys. Overwhelming you say. Reality

 

2009

25th rated prospect Brian Matusz

76th rated prospect Clint Negoette

 

2010

25th Carlos Santana

76th Roberto Hernandez

 

2011

Archie Bradley

Jt Realmuto

 

2012

Archie Bradley

Casey Kelly

 

 

Overwhelming if you like what Phil Rogers rates your minor league system. Pretty underwhelming if you are trying to make your team better.

Edited December 4, 2015 by Dick Allen

[LDF]

 

ok, lets think about this, the sox will never get the prospect / players that will warrant what many will think is a fair price. i believe we can all agree to that.

 

now i am looking at the playoff. that first game is, in many opinions, is crucial. it helps set the way the series may go. more importantly, it will give that team a huge boost.

 

now all team will put there best pitcher there. the true, elite #1 sp on the team to take on the other teams #1 sp. it is a battle of the arms to put it mildly.

 

for us, it is Sale, not Q and not Rodon. it is Sale.

[OmarComing25]

What it means is that there are 80% of the games they have zero contribution to winning, whereas position players have an impact on ~95% of games. I understand the importance of good pitching, but good pitching with nothing else around it is worthless.

Manny Machado had the most PA of any position player this year at 713. 74 pitchers this year faced at least 713 batters this season, position players might have an impact on more games, but their impact on each individual game is pretty marginal compared to the very high impact pitchers have on the games they do pitch. And they also do impact other games. If your starting pitcher gets pulled in the 3rd inning because he sucked then you're using up your bullpen, and will have tired arms for the next game. A SP who goes a complete game will mean you have a rested bullpen for the next game.

Edited December 4, 2015 by OmarComing25

[LDF]

I dont believe that GMs are going to be to gun shy to pull the triggers on deals. Same would be saying GMs are hesitant for giving out to much money to free agents. Somebody always does give up alot to get something back. Hahn even said on the interview saying that with how much pitchers like price and greinke are getting that some GMs are turning to trading for pitchers. The Rangers took a shot at hamels and got them to the playoffs. Because the diversity of teams in baseball very from having big money to needing to be economical changes that way things are done some time can't spend the bigger money on needs but can acquire it with trades cause they have a ton of prospects. Rockies stay can't spend huge money on pitchers and because if where they play big time pitchers hesitate on playing there so with them having the 3rd best farm system in baseball the can try to acquire them with prospects

 

you may be right, but i have a feeling that they will not be wild in those trades... they will look for the best deal. now there will be a team who will be aggressive.

[elrockinMT]

The question is in the title. Why should they keep him? Why should they not? You know where I lean, but as an economist, that always garners an "it depends."

 

I'm drunk and bored and want to light a fire. I like chaos.

 

But seriously..why not? I've been away. Talk to me goose.

 

 

Ypu need to quit drinking. I think it's bad for your head

[Dick Allen]

ok, lets think about this, the sox will never get the prospect / players that will warrant what many will think is a fair price. i believe we can all agree to that.

 

now i am looking at the playoff. that first game is, in many opinions, is crucial. it helps set the way the series may go. more importantly, it will give that team a huge boost.

 

now all team will put there best pitcher there. the true, elite #1 sp on the team to take on the other teams #1 sp. it is a battle of the arms to put it mildly.

 

for us, it is Sale, not Q and not Rodon. it is Sale.

Oh, they can get a ton of ranked prospects. The problem is, you can't trade Chris Sale for prospects and have those prospects bust. Like the Reed/Davidson trade where the line "I'd make that trade 10 times out of 10" was invented. That can't happen for Sale or Q or Rodon. People b****ed and moaned KW traded not so good prospects and got some major league value back. Trading prospects who turn into tremendous major leaguers for more maybes is a way to keep your team bad for a long time.

[southsider2k5]

Just because a SP only pitches once every 5 days doesn't mean they aren't as valuable as position players. And DA is right, the days of overwhelming prospect offers are over. Everyone loves their prospects now, and GMs are going to be too gun-shy to pull the trigger on the deal it would take, especially with the general risk that pitchers have.

 

Chris Sale faced 854 batters last year. Jose Abreu had 668 plate appearances last year.

[Hatchetman]

Chris Sale faced 854 batters last year. Jose Abreu had 668 plate appearances last year.

 

Amazingly they also had the same BB/K ratio...

 

 

a joke ha ha

[TaylorStSox]

Manny Machado had the most PA of any position player this year at 713. 74 pitchers this year faced at least 713 batters this season, position players might have an impact on more games, but their impact on each individual game is pretty marginal compared to the very high impact pitchers have on the games they do pitch. And they also do impact other games. If your starting pitcher gets pulled in the 3rd inning because he sucked then you're using up your bullpen, and will have tired arms for the next game. A SP who goes a complete game will mean you have a rested bullpen for the next game.

 

That's such an odd way to look at it. Machado impacted 162 games last year. Sale impacted 31.

 

[OmarComing25]

That's such an odd way to look at it. Machado impacted 162 games last year. Sale impacted 31.

Why? Say the position player has on average an impact of 10% on each game. If a SP has an impact on average of 50% for each game he plays, then their impact over the course of the season is relatively equal. And once again, that's not counting the impact the SP does have on other games if he goes deep into the game and rests your bullpen. I don't know what the actual percentages are but you get the point.

Edited December 4, 2015 by OmarComing25

[southsider2k5]

That's such an odd way to look at it. Machado impacted 162 games last year. Sale impacted 31.

 

The difference a hitter gets 4 chances to impact a game. A pitcher usually gets 30-35 per game. Their influence on the games they do pitch in is much greater.

[TaylorStSox]

Why? Say the position player has on average an impact of 10% on each game. If a SP has an impact on average of 50% for each game he plays, then their impact over the course of the season is relatively equal. And once again, that's not counting the impact the SP does have on other games if he goes deep into the game and rests your bullpen. I don't know what the actual percentages are but you get the point.

Sale can only get you 31 wins. Machado has a chance to get you 162. This is real simple stuff.

[OmarComing25]

Sale can only get you 31 wins. Machado has a chance to get you 162. This is real simple stuff.

Not really.

 

Say there were two lotteries, and in one you get to play it 162 times with a 10% chance of winning, and in another you get to play it 31 times with a 53% chance of winning.

 

Your expected # of wins in Lottery A is 16.2. Your expected # of wins in Lottery B is 16.43. Even though Lottery A gave you over 5 times as many chances for a win, Lottery B has the better expected payout in terms of number of wins.

[TaylorStSox]

Not really.

 

Say there were two lotteries, and in one you get to play it 162 times with a 10% chance of winning, and in another you get to play it 31 times with a 53% chance of winning.

 

Your expected # of wins in Lottery A is 16.2. Your expected # of wins in Lottery B is 16.43. Even though Lottery A gave you over 5 times as many chances for a win, Lottery B has the better expected payout in terms of number of wins.

I totally understand your logic. I just think it's totally wrong.

 

[harfman77]

Boston traded the 25th and 76th rated prospects plus 2 other guys. Overwhelming you say. Reality

 

2009

25th rated prospect Brian Matusz

76th rated prospect Clint Negoette

 

2010

25th Carlos Santana

76th Roberto Hernandez

 

2011

Archie Bradley

Jt Realmuto

 

2012

Archie Bradley

Casey Kelly

 

 

Overwhelming if you like what Phil Rogers rates your minor league system. Pretty underwhelming if you are trying to make your team better.

 

Overwhelming in that they gave that up and more for a closer.

 

2013

Archie Bradley

Michael Wacha

 

2014

Nick Castellanos

Alen Hanson

 

2015

Archie Bradley

JT Realmuto

 

Getting that kind of package back for a guy that plays a 100 innnings a year is a win every time.

[Leonard Zelig]

Sale can only get you 31 wins. Machado has a chance to get you 162. This is real simple stuff.

 

Using this logic, every position player is more valuable than any pitcher?

[OmarComing25]

I totally understand your logic. I just think it's totally wrong.

But your logic seems to think that position players are 5 times as valuable as starting pitchers. If that were the case, then an average position player should be able to net an ace starting pitcher in a trade, because that ace "can't give you 162 wins".

[BlackSox13]

Chris Sale faced 854 batters last year. Jose Abreu had 668 plate appearances last year.

 

 

The difference a hitter gets 4 chances to impact a game. A pitcher usually gets 30-35 per game. Their influence on the games they do pitch in is much greater.

Great posts. Only thing I'd like to add is the fact the Sox play 81 games per season at the Cell which IMO, adds to the importance and value of pitching.

[harfman77]

Manny Machado had the most PA of any position player this year at 713. 74 pitchers this year faced at least 713 batters this season, position players might have an impact on more games, but their impact on each individual game is pretty marginal compared to the very high impact pitchers have on the games they do pitch. And they also do impact other games. If your starting pitcher gets pulled in the 3rd inning because he sucked then you're using up your bullpen, and will have tired arms for the next game. A SP who goes a complete game will mean you have a rested bullpen for the next game.

 

Manny Machado also logged 1367.2 innings at 3B this season and had 488 defensive chances.

[Dick Allen]

Overwhelming in that they gave that up and more for a closer.

 

2013

Archie Bradley

Michael Wacha

 

2014

Nick Castellanos

Alen Hanson

 

2015

Archie Bradley

JT Realmuto

 

Getting that kind of package back for a guy that plays a 100 innnings a year is a win every time.

I didn't look at the 2013-2015. But 2013 for sure. The others are maybes. In 3 or 4 years you will be able to tell if the other 2 would have been worth it. Besides Wacha and Santana, there isn't a lot that have helped major league teams win games.

 

Selling prospects is a lot like shorting options. You can do really well a lot of the time, but when it bites you on the ass, it really bites you on the ass.

Edited December 4, 2015 by Dick Allen

[harfman77]

Why? Say the position player has on average an impact of 10% on each game. If a SP has an impact on average of 50% for each game he plays, then their impact over the course of the season is relatively equal. And once again, that's not counting the impact the SP does have on other games if he goes deep into the game and rests your bullpen. I don't know what the actual percentages are but you get the point.

 

That is at least 140% impact on every game with out accounting for a bullpen. I would put position players at a 7% average and SP at about 32% with the bullpen being the other 5%.

 

SP win impact would 9.92 over a season. (31 starts x 32% impact)

Position player impact would be 10.5 (150 starts x 7% impact)

[TaylorStSox]

Using this logic, every position player is more valuable than any pitcher?

No. There's a lot more involved, like availability. If I'm the White Sox, I'd rather have Machado than Sale though.