Best / Worst 2015

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Eaton had really good D stats in 14 IIRC.

 

Adam Eaton was a -1.6 in 2014 according to the listed Fangraphs WAR.

Edited October 6, 2015 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[shysocks]

Sorry Adam Eaton was a -8.8 in 2o14 according to the listed Fangraphs WAR.

Different defensive systems measured him differently last year; he had one of the widest gaps between his UZR and DRS of any player, maybe the widest IIRC. Up to you which one you want to believe. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=24,d

 

Not that many, but I don't think it's because of the ballpark. That's a fairly bold claim and the Cell's outfield is about as standard as they come. I know somebody before (I think it was you) has pointed out that the shape of the fences makes it difficult to rob homers, and while that may be true, it wouldn't swing the numbers that much.

 

And the difference between Avi and Eaton is that Eaton has put up a successful defensive season in the past. Avi has only ever massacred the outfield.

 

Actually he hasn't . in 2 years with the Sox, which is our only way to measure it. he's been -1.6 and -8.8 . Now if you want to look up his DRS numbers be my guest.

Edited October 6, 2015 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Brian Anderson had some amazing defensive metrics IIRC.

 

Ok again I'll use Fangraphs which Eminor likes to use to point out how bad Avi is . Brian Anderson only played semi regularly in 2006 and did have a defensive WAR rating of 7.5 which might be the highest you can find for any Sox OF ever in the Cell . The rest of his career he played so sparingly that it really didn't matter but he never came close to that 7.5 because he was a scrub.

Edited October 6, 2015 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=24,d

 

Not that many, but I don't think it's because of the ballpark. That's a fairly bold claim and the Cell's outfield is about as standard as they come. I know somebody before (I think it was you) has pointed out that the shape of the fences makes it difficult to rob homers, and while that may be true, it wouldn't swing the numbers that much.

 

And the difference between Avi and Eaton is that Eaton has put up a successful defensive season in the past. Avi has only ever massacred the outfield.

 

But the OF gaps are considered small are they not ? I can't back it up but maybe those good OF's get good ratings because they play in more spacious outfields covering more ground . Just something to think about . It would be interesting to see Trayce be a full time player next year just to see what that Fangraphs defensive WAR might be.

[lasttriptotulsa]

Sorry Adam Eaton was a -8.8 in 2o14 according to the listed Fangraphs WAR.

 

 

Actually he hasn't . in 2 years with the Sox, which is our only way to measure it. he's been -8.8 and -21.2 . Now if you want to look up his DRS numbers be my guest.

 

He was -1.6 in 2014 and -8.8 in 2015. He is -21.2 for his career which includes what has to be a fluky -11.2 in just 66 games with the D-Backs in 2013.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Different defensive systems measured him differently last year; he had one of the widest gaps between his UZR and DRS of any player, maybe the widest IIRC. Up to you which one you want to believe. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

That's pretty much my point . You've got all these supposedly "right" new ways to measure things yet there are huge discrepancies thereby rendering defensive metrics fairly unreliable unless an OF is so good or so bad they all pretty much end up with the same conclusion. But most OF's fall somewhere in between so how reliable is any measuring stick of the majority of OF'ers ?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

He was -1.6 in 2014 and -8.8 in 2015. He is -21.2 for his career which includes what has to be a fluky -11.2 in just 66 games with the D-Backs in 2013.

 

Sorry my bad you are right old bad eyes but the point remains he's still not in the positive area.I will delete or edit those posts.

Edited October 6, 2015 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Eminor3rd]

Yes he was terrible, awful, a huge disappointment but I often wonder if the elite OF's this year Kevin Pillar, Kevin Keiermaier, Jason Heyward, Lorenzo Cain put up the same defensive WAR in US Cellular ? Seems like Sox OF's somehow get punished for playing there. Who was the last Sox OF who even had a decent defensive rating like say a 5 on the positive side ? The OF's I mentioned are all 15+ so I'm not asking for much with a 5.

 

Everyone harps on Avi's D (well his offense too) but his defensive WAR was a -13.8 while Adam Eaton's was a -8.8 . Someone show me a good defensive OF who played for the Sox in the last ,say, 15 years.Oh hell make it 25 years , still might not find one with a decent defensive WAR.

 

It's an interesting question -- I have no idea if advanced defensive stats are park-adjusted.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

It's an interesting question -- I have no idea if advanced defensive stats are park-adjusted.

 

That's why advanced metrics make me crazy. As a fan you knew exactly mathematically how to do batting average , OBP , slugging percentage because its all simple math that reveals part of a picture but not all of it. Some of these new metrics you have no idea what went into devising them and just how full of flaws they might be. And on the offensive side what gets rated higher ? Does a walk with the bases loaded contribute as much to WAR and other offensive advanced metrics as a single that drives in 2 runs with the bases loaded ?

Edited October 6, 2015 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[bmags]

Cali what an awesome observation. I'm excited to see where this goes.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Cali what an awesome observation. I'm excited to see where this goes.

 

Thanks .It just seemed odd to me that Kevin Keirmaier gets a 32.0 defensive WAR this year which is ridiculously high and overall is a 5.5 WAR player but realistically is he that same WAR playing CF in the Cell because much of his value is defensively.

[bmags]

Also best of the year:

Really enjoyed John Danks 1-0 victory over the Orioles which featured a great defensive game by sox. It was a fireworks game and the atmosphere with all of the kids there was great.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Well back on topic since not too many can post about good moments but the Beckham walk offs on Mothers and Fathers day was very unique and fun.

[Hatchetman]

Well back on topic since not too many can post about good moments but the Beckham walk offs on Mothers and Fathers day was very unique and fun.

 

was that when he did the stirring the pot gesture? that was pretty funny.

[OmarComing25]

I still don't trust defensive metrics (Eaton is a great example, DRS had him as one of the best defenders in the league last year, UZR had him as below-average), but if you consistently rate negatively you're probably a bad fielder. Same the other way in the positive direction. The individual metric itself I take with a rather large grain of salt though, especially when trying to compare fielders of relatively equal ability, good or bad.

[shysocks]

That's pretty much my point . You've got all these supposedly "right" new ways to measure things yet there are huge discrepancies thereby rendering defensive metrics fairly unreliable unless an OF is so good or so bad they all pretty much end up with the same conclusion. But most OF's fall somewhere in between so how reliable is any measuring stick of the majority of OF'ers ?

I would rather have the defensive metrics than what we used before them, which was a combination of fielding percentage (which actually penalizes players with better range and is generally just too simplistic) and eye test/reputation (Derek Jeter is a great defensive shortstop because he just is). Given that everybody can't scout every player for 100 games, we need defensive metrics to give us an idea of where they stand. There are error ranges that the creators of these systems have acknowledged, but disagreements like what happened with Eaton in 2014 do not happen most of the time.

 

That's why advanced metrics make me crazy. As a fan you knew exactly mathematically how to do batting average , OBP , slugging percentage because its all simple math that reveals part of a picture but not all of it. Some of these new metrics you have no idea what went into devising them and just how full of flaws they might be. And on the offensive side what gets rated higher ? Does a walk with the bases loaded contribute as much to WAR and other offensive advanced metrics as a single that drives in 2 runs with the bases loaded ?

The bases being loaded doesn't matter, but a single contributes marginally more than a walk because throughout baseball history, it has been proven to lead to marginally more runs than a walk.

 

But the OF gaps are considered small are they not ? I can't back it up but maybe those good OF's get good ratings because they play in more spacious outfields covering more ground . Just something to think about . It would be interesting to see Trayce be a full time player next year just to see what that Fangraphs defensive WAR might be.

UZR is park-adjusted, and you are right - guys who play in parks with big outfields would get more credit for catching a ball in the gap than a guy at the Cell. But they also deserve that credit. They still have to get to those balls, or their UZR would go down. Theoretically, if you moved Lagares or Cain to our park, they'd get less UZR credit per catch, but they would be able to track down absolutely everything and would probably have fewer missed plays docking their score. Looking at the highest UZR's for outfielders of the last 15 years, I see all kinds of ballparks. I see Busch Stadium, which has nearly identical dimensions to the Cell. I see Safeco, which is cited as having an "easy" catch rate, as I imagine the Cell does. I don't think there's a systematic reason why a guy playing for the Sox couldn't reach these levels.

 

If you don't wanna read that whole thing on UZR that's fine. The basics are that every batted ball's physics are assessed; it calculates how often that type of batted ball is converted into an out and the damage the batted ball typically does when not converted into an out; and assigns a positive or negative value to the fielder for that play. UZR has flaws, the biggest in my mind being that plays where a shift is used (which are extremely common now) are dropped from the data set; I am sure people are trying to rectify that. I would still rather have UZR than not. We're close to having a much better system but we aren't there yet.

[Hatchetman]

OK, good, looks like I have found somebody who studies these things. Maybe you can explain: why does BABIP fluctuate so much year to year considering a random coin flip or die roll would never give such wild results. For example if the true odds of a weighted coin were 30% heads, over 400 flips (full season balls in play), the odds of getting 36 or 38% heads would be very very small. Yet for a given player, BABIP is supposed to be random.

[Eminor3rd]

That's why advanced metrics make me crazy. As a fan you knew exactly mathematically how to do batting average , OBP , slugging percentage because its all simple math that reveals part of a picture but not all of it. Some of these new metrics you have no idea what went into devising them and just how full of flaws they might be. And on the offensive side what gets rated higher ? Does a walk with the bases loaded contribute as much to WAR and other offensive advanced metrics as a single that drives in 2 runs with the bases loaded ?

 

Oh, it's not that I don't know what goes into them, I'm just not sure if the defensive component is park-adjusted before being put into WAR. If it isn't then that's an interesting area for future study and significant results could move the needle toward making defensive metrics more accurate.

 

As for your second question: the bases being loaded would have nothing to do with either situation. The hallmark of offensive saber stats is that they are context neutral -- which allows us to compare players apples to apples (or close to it) rather than by stats that are as much (or more) dependent on how good a player's TEAM is.

 

Basically, if a guy gets a walk, he gets awarded the difference between (a) the mean run value of what a walk produces on average in the current run environment and (b) the run value lost if he made an out instead. In 2015, a baserunner-starved environment, a walk was worth 0.687 runs more than an out. So the batter would get 0.687 when he walked, no matter how many men were on base. A single, if you're curious, was 0.881 runs in 2015. So he DOES get more credit for a hit that could score multiple runs, but that value gets normalized.

 

EDIT: Sorry, didn't see shysocks' reply =\

 

In case anyone is curious as to the other wOBA and FIP constant values: http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=cn

Edited October 6, 2015 by Eminor3rd

[Eminor3rd]

Thanks .It just seemed odd to me that Kevin Keirmaier gets a 32.0 defensive WAR this year which is ridiculously high and overall is a 5.5 WAR player but realistically is he that same WAR playing CF in the Cell because much of his value is defensively.

 

FYI - the 32 number isn't "defensive WAR," it's "Defensive runs" which is an input into WAR. The actual number changes year to year, but usually roughly 10 runs = 1 WAR.

 

So, essentially, 3 of Kiermaier's 5 WAR came from his glove.

Edited October 6, 2015 by Eminor3rd

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

FYI - the 32 number isn't "defensive WAR," it's "Defensive runs" which is an input into WAR. The actual number changes year to year, but usually roughly 10 runs = 1 WAR.

 

So, essentially, 3 of Kiermaier's 5 WAR came from his glove.

 

Hmm doesn't seem like his offensive numbers are worth 2.5 WAR to me at all. Under .300 OBP , 98 wRC . And sorry once again if the advanced stats confuse me and I don't understand evrything I am looking at. But to me it looks like just about all of his WAR came from defense.

[Hatchetman]

LOL. he must be the best defensive center fielder of all time. Absurd.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

was that when he did the stirring the pot gesture? that was pretty funny.

 

Yes that was the the one on Mothers Day when he hit a single to drive in the winning run. The one on Fathers day was a walk off HR.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Another thing that bothers me is it seems like the good CFer's generally have higher defensive value than corner OFer's. Again maybe it's something I see rather than a fact. But a CFer can run gap to gap at full speed while corner OFer's must temper their approach to balls hit down the line because of the chance of colliding with walls. This tempered approach is necessary unless you have no regard for your body yet corner OF's can't get those ridiculously high defensive ratings as much as CFer's do. Alex Gordon was about the highest you'll see in 2014 for a corner. Heyward in 2012, 2014 and 2015 was pretty high also.

 

When someone like Trout moves from CF to a corner doesn't it seem like their defensive rating always goes down yet they are the same player with the same speed and abilities. I know being strong up the middle is essential in baseball like it's always been so a truly gifted defensive CFer has more inherent value built into the position just like SS does. Again playing a corner means you can't run as fast or must slow down when approaching walls but is that something that is taken into consideration ?

[Eminor3rd]

Hmm doesn't seem like his offensive numbers are worth 2.5 WAR to me at all. Under .300 OBP , 98 wRC . And sorry once again if the advanced stats confuse me and I don't understand evrything I am looking at. But to me it looks like just about all of his WAR came from defense.

 

 

LOL. he must be the best defensive center fielder of all time. Absurd.

 

Couple things:

 

1) That defensive runs number includes the positional adjustment, so he's getting 10 or so runs tacked on just for that

 

2) His defensive runs was the highest in the entire MLB this year, and it wasn't particularly close. So if you think it's absurd that he could contribute that much, keep in mind that we've chosen an example that literally represents the most extreme outcome. Also, for whatever reason, people assume that it's gospel that "defense never slumps" and reject the idea that players can have good or bad years with the glove despite evidence to the contrary, so it's very possible that Kiermaier PLAYED like the best CF of alltime this year without necessarily BEING the greatest CF of alltime.