MLBTradeRumors Offseason Outlook

[Dunt]

I think some people want the Sox to tear it down and get a bunch of young guys. Others want the Sox to acquire a bunch of veterans through FA. I prefer that the Sox do a little bit of both.

 

1.) One big expenditure. Preferably a guy who doesn't have a QO attached. For the right price, I think you can make an exception for a guy like Justin Upton who the FO covets. Seems like a lot of people are down on him so if you could get him for 6/120ish that's a nice deal for a guy who's averaged almost 4 WAR/year that past five years.

 

2.) Steve Pearce. He had a .233 BABIP which is 7th worst for players who had 300 PAs. His ISO is still over .200. You sign him cheapish to be the RH side of the DH platoon with LaRoche. He played at least 100 innings at 1B, OF and 2B for the Orioles last year. Give him a role in a position he should succeed in (hitting LHP) and if he excels there is more opportunity available. If his BABIP normalizes, which I suspect it will, he can be a great pick up. At the very least he's a cheap power option who cold hit 20HRs.

 

3.) Trade pitching for some YOUTH on the offense. If it's Q that goes, get multiple pieces that can step in and potentially join the core of Abreu/Eaton.

 

4.) Have an international presence. There is a big opportunity for the July 2 International period this year. Do something the team has never done and blow past the limits. Look to Cuba and Asia.

 

I side most with your approach. I think the front office put itself in a bad position half heartedly going for it last season, but they can still salvage this to compete next season and be a playoff team in 2017. In terms of lining up with a trading partner that could deal for young offense for pitching, does anybody think that the Rangers and Sox line up well? Wouldnt mind possibly seeing a package for Q centered around Mazara and Brinson.

[Soxfest]

I will be pissed if we have to go through another season with Flowers as our starting catcher. Back up I could deal with but not the starter.

4 million for Flowers no thanks.

[OmarComing25]

Isn't that what they have been trying to do for the last nine years? Not trying to be snide or sarcastic but this sounds like more of the same that hasn't worked.

 

Commit to a plan and stay there come hell or high water. I'd prefer a tear down but at this point I'll take that or a complete 'go for it' charge regardless of how much it costs.

 

Mark

Since when is selling high, buying low, and increasing international presence a bad plan?

[LDF]

Isn't that what they have been trying to do for the last nine years? Not trying to be snide or sarcastic but this sounds like more of the same that hasn't worked.

 

Commit to a plan and stay there come hell or high water. I'd prefer a tear down but at this point I'll take that or a complete 'go for it' charge regardless of how much it costs.

 

Mark

 

first that plan has to be doable. a plan that can see results and have the ability for the sox members to accomplish it.

 

next and i do hate to keep harping on this, i am not trying to be snarky on this one, but they have to have the full commitment from the owners, which also includes the cost or getting it done.

 

reading on mlb rumors, the northside team has a plan now to sign another cuban player and while they are in the playoff, the FO is still working. i really hope the sox FO is doing something. i really have lost faith in the management team.

[southsider2k5]

Danks and LaRoche aren't currently FA's and I am aware of that, obvious typo there. My bad.

 

I could have sworn that it was reported the Sox offered Samardzija a contract. Regardless, at face value, they were intent on at least vying for his services. He was a guy penned for a hundred million dollar contract prior to this season so they were aware of the expenditure's nature and that they had the ability to extend as much.

 

I would have to see the offseason before I guessed on attendance but there are reasons to believe attendance will go down.

 

I am not going to go into this quasi-accounting where year X's profit supposedly equals the succeeding year's maximum increase for operating cost. Nor am I going to take the Forbes numbers with any credence. The Sox have one of the most drastic capital/labor splits in baseball.

 

We can't look at the numbers from 2011 and compare them to 2015 as if they are equal. You have to consider in 2011, after attendance went down 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. In 2011, the Sox had their highest payroll ever at 128 million. 128 million in 2015 dollars is much less than 128 in 2015. When you factor in inflation, revenue sharing, national/local TV deals the average payroll increase significantly and steadily annually. Despite the payrolls and average player salary growing tremendously, the players share of revenue has decreased 33% over the last thirteen years. In the largest two year growth ever, the average MLB player salary is up to 4.2 million for the 2015 season. That's a 16.4% growth rate over two years on the average player salary. Despite that, players got a lesser share of revenue in both years! Owners are raking in the money. This is a huge issue for the MLBPA with the CBA expiring after 2016. It's not a matter of whether the Sox have the money to spend, it's a matter of whether the Sox choose to spend the money and to what extent.

 

I agree with the idea that they offered him a deal previously. But things have changed.

 

The gains in attendance didn't materialize the way they though, along with all of the extra revenues from that and extra ads, etc. Just because they made the offer then, doesn't mean the money is there now.

 

I don't see us having $20 million or more free payroll dollars to play with for 2016.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

I like that thought process rabbit! I did a mock offseason for the hell of it last night and had us signing Wieters, Freese, AC to stop gap Anderson and trade for Puig.

[southsider2k5]

You didn't touch the crux of my argument which is the principal reason I know there's money if they want to spend/change. There's money there.

 

I touched it in the last post, but you hand waved it away. We spent almost all of the profit margin we had from the prior year, and seeing as I don't believe we are going to see higher revenues, and will in fact see lower revenues in 16 vs 15, there is not much left unless we move contracts to make it. I don't see that happening either.

 

I don't see money to spend.

[caulfield12]

If they were somehow bringing in both Puig (trade) and Upton, that would be about the only way to reverse all the negative momentum season ticket wise.

 

Or Cespedes/Gordon/Zobrist instead of Upton.

 

But the Padres made the big splashy moves this past season and set themselves back 2-3 years in the process.

 

 

It would also force another veteran addition in the starting rotation...which would cost yet another $10-12 million (Iwakuma, for example)....or you're forced to deal Montas/Anderson/Adams, which would be even worse.

 

You can't add Puig and another big name offensively and then have Sale, Rodon, Danks, Johnson and ??? as your starting rotation...and the bullpen's short a lefty, Albers (Jones might be able to replace him though) and still not sure you can trust both Duke and Robertson 100% but not much of a choice since they refused to trade him back to the Yankees and start over from scratch.

[southsider2k5]

Not sure what handwaving is but I acknowledged your argument. I just don't agree that profit equals incremental increase in expenses... You are also taking Forbes estimates as fact even though I remember you being on the other side of that argument in the past. MLB's revenues are exploding. Owners are making the capital/labor split deeper every year. The Sox ownership was taking more than other teams before the serious revenue growth. The money is there.

 

I don't believe I have been on the other side of the Forbes arguments. I think a company that can analyze way more complex organizations than baseball teams with hundreds of thousands of employees and multinational presences can handle a baseball team quite nicely.

 

My basic assumption that the Sox won't intentionally spend themselves into a loss in a given year. It can happen with the bandwagon empties unexpectedly, and honestly I wouldn't be shocked to see it this year. Taking that number, we get an idea for a baseline of what this team can afford to spend. If we have already spent the extra money we had, I don't see there being anymore.

 

Do you see revenues being higher in 2016, than 2014? I don't, which is why I don't see there being a lot of extra money to spend.

[Vance Law]

Do you see revenues being higher in 2016, than 2014? I don't, which is why I don't see there being a lot of extra money to spend.

 

Would depend on whether or not JR can be expected to spend now to augment 2016 with the knowledge that $29 million comes off the books the next year with Danks and LaRoche- $39 million if they have re-signed Alexei.

[Lip Man 1]

What exactly have they tried to do?

 

1st point: They've never signed a free agent over 68 million. I suggest one big signing so you're offbase there.

2nd point: Who have they sign that is like Steve Pearce? I guess Andruw Jones after '09 would be similar despite difference in name value but Jones worked out well so why complain about that?

3rd point: If you're referring to Q, Sox have never sold high on a pitcher of his pedigree like I would be open to considering. Buehrle was kept for sentimental reasons which I agreed with. I wanted them to trade Danks and Floyd, they never did it. They got zero value for both of them.

4th point: The Sox have no presence in South America. They were screwed by Kenny's put that retarded the process all the way up to a few years ago. They considered ditching investing in the South American market as a whole.

 

So I am not trying to be sarcastic or snide when I ask you what exactly they have been doing the last nine years that would be a parallel to my post? The situation the Sox find themselves in is a result of Kenny Williams' complete disregard for the CBA and the inability to produce position players. If the Sox correct themselves there, which I think Hahn can do, they will be in a better position. My plan is for the immediate future.

 

What they've done the last nine years that is comparable to your points in my opinion is to try to toe the middle line between tearing it down to the foundation and starting over or going for it regardless of cost.

 

That was what I was trying to say.

 

I continue to believe that the 'middle ground' is like the Twilight Zone, just keep spinning wheels and hoping for success.

 

Nothing against your points per se, they are solid. I just think trying to "rebuild while contending" simply does not work and I want the Sox to fully commit to go one way or the other and see what happens.

 

The don't appear to have the money or the desire to sign a bunch of top level free agents (assuming they are even available) and they seem to be deathly afraid of tearing it all down and starting over.

 

Bottom line, I don't think they know what they want to do or can do and are trying to go someplace in the middle...which again according to the last nine years does not work.

 

Mark

[Lip Man 1]

Danks and LaRoche aren't currently FA's and I am aware of that, obvious typo there. My bad.

 

I could have sworn that it was reported the Sox offered Samardzija a contract. Regardless, at face value, they were intent on at least vying for his services. He was a guy penned for a hundred million dollar contract prior to this season so they were aware of the expenditure's nature and that they had the ability to extend as much.

 

I would have to see the offseason before I guessed on attendance but there are reasons to believe attendance will go down.

 

I am not going to go into this quasi-accounting where year X's profit supposedly equals the succeeding year's maximum increase for operating cost. Nor am I going to take the Forbes numbers with any credence. The Sox have one of the most drastic capital/labor splits in baseball.

 

We can't look at the numbers from 2011 and compare them to 2015 as if they are equal. You have to consider in 2011, after attendance went down 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. In 2011, the Sox had their highest payroll ever at 128 million. 128 million in 2015 dollars is much less than 128 in 2015. When you factor in inflation, revenue sharing, national/local TV deals the average payroll increase significantly and steadily annually. Despite the payrolls and average player salary growing tremendously, the players share of revenue has decreased 33% over the last thirteen years. In the largest two year growth ever, the average MLB player salary is up to 4.2 million for the 2015 season. That's a 16.4% growth rate over two years on the average player salary. Despite that, players got a lesser share of revenue in both years! Owners are raking in the money. This is a huge issue for the MLBPA with the CBA expiring after 2016. It's not a matter of whether the Sox have the money to spend, it's a matter of whether the Sox choose to spend the money and to what extent.

 

I don't remember seeing anything specific but I thought I read around mid season where Hahn was quoted as saying along the lines that the Sox wanted to keep Shark and talked but the agent said he was going through the free agent process. He was quoted directly on that. I don't think it ever actually got to the point where a formal offer was made. Again that's just from memory.

 

Mark

 

[Lip Man 1]

Hahn is a modern mind. Let him work.

 

I agree he deserves his chance. Unfortunately until Kenny goes far away it's not happening (i.e. Kenny's public comments to the media this June which I found condescending and arrogant towards Hahn)

 

Mark

 

[Baron]

I agree he deserves his chance. Unfortunately until Kenny goes far away it's not happening (i.e. Kenny's public comments to the media this June which I found condescending and arrogant towards Hahn)

 

Mark

 

 

He's getting his chance. He should(key word) have one more year to show us. It's the last year of his 3 year plan. Time for some results.

[southsider2k5]

Would depend on whether or not JR can be expected to spend now to augment 2016 with the knowledge that $29 million comes off the books the next year with Danks and LaRoche- $39 million if they have re-signed Alexei.

 

They won't spend into a deficit this year. If anything they wait until 2016 to spend.

[Lip Man 1]

He's getting his chance. He should(key word) have one more year to show us. It's the last year of his 3 year plan. Time for some results.

 

Well based on Kenny's comments in June 2015 next season (2016)is actually year two of the "three year plan / window..." (since the Sox never explained what exactly the plan is, to have a winning record? to get to the playoffs?? to get to the World Series??? I have no idea who is telling the truth.

 

Mark

Edited October 14, 2015 by Lip Man 1

[Baron]

Well based on Kenny's comments in June 2015 next season (2016)is actually year two of the "three year plan / window..." (since the Sox never explained what exactly the plan is, to have a winning record? to get to the playoffs?? to get to the World Series??? I have no idea who is telling the truth.

 

Mark

 

Robin was talking playoffs this past Spring Training. Let's start there.

[MIZ-SOX]

He's getting his chance. He should(key word) have one more year to show us. It's the last year of his 3 year plan. Time for some results.

 

The franchise is really at a crossroads right now. Our model of plugging in 30 year old position players doesn't work in today's game. I'm going to assume we'll try to make a few signings this offseason so that we can hopefully compete next year, however if we see a repeat of this season, i'm fully expecting us to deal any veterans that have any value, and commit to a youth movement.

 

Luckily we've done a pretty good job of restocking the farm, so I don't think a rebuild would take as long as that of the Cubs/Astros.

[OmarComing25]

The franchise is really at a crossroads right now. Our model of plugging in 30 year old position players doesn't work in today's game. I'm going to assume we'll try to make a few signings this offseason so that we can hopefully compete next year, however if we see a repeat of this season, i'm fully expecting us to deal any veterans that have any value, and commit to a youth movement.

 

Luckily we've done a pretty good job of restocking the farm, so I don't think a rebuild would take as long as that of the Cubs/Astros.

30 really isn't that old, the top 3 offenses in the MLB this year (Jays, Yankees, Rangers) were littered with position players 30 or older. The Mets led the NL in runs scored in the second half and their offense is similarly old. Seemed to work just fine for those teams. It's not the age that is the problem.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

I'm predicting a busy offseason because they have to have one. I expect a new 3B, SP, C and an impact bat. Preferably RF.

[Baron]

I'm predicting a busy offseason because they have to have one. I expect a new 3B, SP, C and an impact bat. Preferably RF.

 

Rick Hahn has no choice.

[Lip Man 1]

30 really isn't that old, the top 3 offenses in the MLB this year (Jays, Yankees, Rangers) were littered with position players 30 or older. The Mets led the NL in runs scored in the second half and their offense is similarly old. Seemed to work just fine for those teams. It's not the age that is the problem.

 

Just curious Omar what you think the problem is?

 

Mark

 

[Lip Man 1]

I'm predicting a busy offseason because they have to have one. I expect a new 3B, SP, C and an impact bat. Preferably RF.

 

They have a choice, they can stand pat in part because of possible financial concerns. JR still holds the purse strings remember not Kenny nor Rick.

 

Financial concerns really shouldn't be an issue they are making money but maybe not enough to satisfy some people...who knows for sure.

 

Mark

Edited October 14, 2015 by Lip Man 1

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Rick Hahn has no choice.

Yup. I'm not even advocating spending a fortune on one player. They should sign at least 3 players.

[BlackSox13]

I think there's going to be some disappointed Sox fans come spring. Expectations are a bit high for a team with a few bad contracts and lttle financial wiggle room. As a Sox fan I surely hope for more but understand the rock and hard place they are in.