2016 Steamer Projections and the Reality of this Offseason

[Dunt]

As it currently stands, the White Sox are currently sitting around 23 WAR as a team next year:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?...l&players=0

 

If the trend from this year holds true, playoff teams put up roughly 40 WAR. The Sox have to trade for or buy 17 wins worth of talent this offseason. Very, very tall task.

[Hatchetman]

Yes, I've mentioned it before. They're position players account for like 3 WAR if I recall.

[caulfield12]

Might not want to include this in the season ticket renewals package...

[OmarComing25]

Funny thing is those projections are a big upgrade for almost everyone on the position player side except Eaton, Abreu and Soto over 2015. If Trayce put up that offensive line I'd be happy.

Edited October 22, 2015 by OmarComing25

[Dick Allen]

Fangraphs April 1 projections had no AL playoff team making the playoffs. The highest ranking playoff team was the Yankees, who were 7th in the AL and the first team eliminated.

 

Judging anything by projection before the WS is over and no moves have been made is pretty funny, but it should keep the whiners whining. What, the same roster they finished the season with isn't projected 3 weeks after the season is over to have enough WAR to make the playoffs next year?

[Jerksticks]

Fangraphs April 1 projections had no AL playoff team making the playoffs. The highest ranking playoff team was the Yankees, who were 7th in the AL and the first team eliminated.

 

Judging anything by projection before the WS is over and no moves have been made is pretty funny, but it should keep the whiners whining. What, the same roster they finished the season with isn't projected 3 weeks after the season is over to have enough WAR to make the playoffs next year?

Dear fangraphs,

 

Yes. I watched baseball this year and also looked at the standings.

[Dunt]

Fangraphs April 1 projections had no AL playoff team making the playoffs. The highest ranking playoff team was the Yankees, who were 7th in the AL and the first team eliminated.

 

Judging anything by projection before the WS is over and no moves have been made is pretty funny, but it should keep the whiners whining. What, the same roster they finished the season with isn't projected 3 weeks after the season is over to have enough WAR to make the playoffs next year?

 

The World Series and offseason have no influence on their 2016 steamer numbers, not really sure what the point you're trying to make is. Feel free to contribute nothing to the thread though, you're certainly entitled to do that.

[caulfield12]

So basically, we should be blindly optimistic because Fangraphs is often wrong...and therefore, it means the White Sox are likely to be in playoff contention as a result?

 

Actually, with those projections underrating the White Sox due to the "Herm Schneider/Cooper Effect," of keeping the team healthier by far than the median or average, you might want to argue that the odds of the White Sox having nearly 100% health next year aren't that great.

 

(Almost everything went right, with a couple of players missing time here and there, Sale being the one who might have been affected the most in the first half because of the foot...and Nate Jones unexpectedly returned, for example.)

[Eminor3rd]

The postseason isn't even over and we've already written off 2016.

[OmarComing25]

The postseason isn't even over and we've already written off 2016.

Some have written off the next five to ten years.

[Lip Man 1]

The postseason isn't even over and we've already written off 2016.

 

If the recent past (nine years) is prologue with the White Sox that's probably a pretty good bet.

 

Mark

 

[Eminor3rd]

If the recent past (nine years) is prologue with the White Sox that's probably a pretty good bet.

 

Mark

 

Ugh

[chitownsportsfan]

Ugh

 

team has sucked so long and makes no real changes at the top so I don't see them flipping the script until they do.

[Boopa1219]

Jason Heyward for 500M and 50% ownership stake in the team

Edited October 23, 2015 by Joshua Strong

[Dick Allen]

The World Series and offseason have no influence on their 2016 steamer numbers, not really sure what the point you're trying to make is. Feel free to contribute nothing to the thread though, you're certainly entitled to do that.

The Sox season ended 3 weeks ago. They were bad. What did you expect their projected WAR to be right now.? Go ahead a rip me but you are the guy whining before any offseason move is made by any team in baseball about a team that finished 10 games under .500 and their projected cumulative WAR for next season. Again, what did you expect it to be at this point? And again, I am pointing out to you that even on April 1 which is 5 months from now and every team had a moreaccurate roster, Fangraphs was off, missing every playoff team in the AL. In 2015. So did PECOTA. So again it is October. Fast forward 5 months, the projections still mean nothing. The projections on April 1this year had every AL playoff team missing the playoffs.

 

It certainly isn't proof that next year is going to suck.

Edited October 23, 2015 by Dick Allen

[Dunt]

The Sox season ended 3 weeks ago. They were bad. What did you expect their projected WAR to be right now.? Go ahead a rip me but you are the guy whining before any offseason move is made by any team in baseball about a team that finished 10 games under .500 and their projected cumulative WAR for next season. Again, what did you expect it to be at this point? And again, I am pointing out to you that even on April 1 which is 5 months from now and every team had a moreaccurate roster, Fangraphs was off, missing every playoff team in the AL. In 2015. So did PECOTA. So again it is October. Fast forward 5 months, the projections still mean nothing. The projections on April 1this year had every AL playoff team missing the playoffs.

 

It certainly isn't proof that next year is going to suck.

 

Not whining at all, simply making an observation in regards to the amount of work they need to do. Their projections wont really change from now until April, so again, your point is kind of moot. Of course teams can overperform and underperform their projections, most of the time they end up being relatively accurate though. If you are so angsty over random threads trying to spark discussion during the offseason, maybe it's time you step away from the keyboard for awhile chief.

 

[oldsox]

Not whining at all, simply making an observation in regards to the amount of work they need to do. Their projections wont really change from now until April, so again, your point is kind of moot. Of course teams can overperform and underperform their projections, most of the time they end up being relatively accurate though. If you are so angsty over random threads trying to spark discussion during the offseason, maybe it's time you step away from the keyboard for awhile chief.

fat chance.

[Dick Allen]

Not whining at all, simply making an observation in regards to the amount of work they need to do. Their projections wont really change from now until April, so again, your point is kind of moot. Of course teams can overperform and underperform their projections, most of the time they end up being relatively accurate though. If you are so angsty over random threads trying to spark discussion during the offseason, maybe it's time you step away from the keyboard for awhile chief.

The problems are:

1. These projections are using the White Sox 2015 roster. That will change.

 

2. As I pointed out a couple of times, but you ignore, even when they had the up to date rosters, when they projected standings this year on April 1st, none of the teams they projected to make the playoffs, made the playoffs. The Yankees made the playoffs and they were projected to be the 7th best team in the AL. They weren't quite as bad as PECOTA who had first place teams finishing last and last place teams finishing first.

3. The Royals, Blue Jays and Mets would all have punted on 2015 if they took Steamer projections very seriously.

That is all I was pointing out. Discuss away, the thing is, why, at this particular point in time, would you have expected the White Sox projected WAR to be any different than what they listed? If anything, it looks a bit higher than I would have expected. I wouldn't bet money based on these early projections, and I doubt you would either, but there is a certain faction that will take them as gospel if it paints the White Sox negatively, as we have already seen.

 

4. Finally, you stated you posted this to fuel a discussion, yet when I post something that is not doom and gloom, you get upset and tell me I need to step away. A discussion would include both sides of a subject. I guess you were just going for a we are all doomed thread.

Edited October 23, 2015 by Dick Allen

[OmarComing25]

The problems are:

1. These projections are using the White Sox 2015 roster. That will change.

 

2. As I pointed out a couple of times, but you ignore, even when they had the up to date rosters, when they projected standings this year on April 1st, none of the teams they projected to make the playoffs, made the playoffs. The Yankees made the playoffs and they were projected to be the 7th best team in the AL. They weren't quite as bad as PECOTA who had first place teams finishing last and last place teams finishing first.

3. The Royals, Blue Jays and Mets would all have punted on 2015 if they took Steamer projections very seriously.

That is all I was pointing out. Discuss away, the thing is, why, at this particular point in time, would you have expected the White Sox projected WAR to be any different than what they listed? If anything, it looks a bit higher than I would have expected. I wouldn't bet money based on these early projections, and I doubt you would either, but there is a certain faction that will take them as gospel if it paints the White Sox negatively, as we have already seen.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-201...ections-failed/

 

That article shows that projection systems have been getting worse over time, and for your point number 3 you could also include the Rangers, Astros, Cubs, and Pirates, none of whom the projections liked this year.

[shysocks]

Projections are fun, but obviously these need to be taken with a shaker of salt. Steamer's always kind of off with playing time estimates, especially before the rosters are complete... I don't expect Gordon Beckham to get 200 plate appearances with the Sox, for example. And how many seasons in a row has Jose Quintana beaten his projections now? Approximately 18? And also, Jeff Samardzija is listed there. That's humorous.

 

But Steamer at least knows that Trayce ought to be ahead of Avi on the depth chart.

[Hatchetman]

This Steamer thing isn't projecting wins is it? Just WAR. Maybe we can make the playoffs with a 20 WAR team. You never know.

[southsider2k5]

The postseason isn't even over and we've already written off 2016.

 

Written it off, and ready to complain about it! That is what we call a win-win.

[Eminor3rd]

Just a side note: remember that projections guess at playing time, too, but that's often not real useful.

 

For example, if you want to see what Trayce Thompson is projected to put up next if he takes over RF full-time, you should use Steamer600, which essentially just projects every player as if he were a full-timer (600PA for position players, 450PA for catchers, 200IP for starters, 65IP for relievers).

Edited October 23, 2015 by Eminor3rd

[caulfield12]

Yeah, you know how those season ticket holders get when they the WAR projections!

 

I am not one that puts a lot of weight into projections but I think there's reason to believe we can get 25 WAR out of Sale/Quintana/Abreu/Eaton/Rodon. It doesn't help that last year our entire pool of position players sucked away from Abreu/Eaton. There is going to be improvement, and very likely across the board, despite what your doom and gloomers say.

 

Are you willing to guarantee even a .500 team next year?

 

If they can't do that, playoffs or bust in 2017 is a stretch because then we'll also be dealing with the Twins and Indians.

[Eminor3rd]

I don't make bets on teams I haven't seen yet.