Ah-Seop Son

[TheFutureIsNear]

Turns 28 this upcoming ST. Lefty who hit .330/.406/.472 over the past 6 seasons in Korea. Averaging 12 HR's and 16 steals over those 6 years as well.

 

With Kang's success for the Pirates this year I don't expect Son to go nearly as under the radar as Kang did out of Korea. These guys are professional hitters. After Kang I've read that Son's contract could get into the 20 millions over 4 years, but to me that is a small price to pay for a guy who could potentially hit .300 with good on base skills and hopefully above average D(haven't read anything about his D). Anybody else think taking a gamble on him could pay off as a relatively cheap way to fill an OF hole for an extended period of time?

[southsider2k5]

Turns 28 this upcoming ST. Lefty who hit .330/.406/.472 over the past 6 seasons in Korea. Averaging 12 HR's and 16 steals over those 6 years as well.

 

With Kang's success for the Pirates this year I don't expect Son to go nearly as under the radar as Kang did out of Korea. These guys are professional hitters. After Kang I've read that Son's contract could get into the 20 millions over 4 years, but to me that is a small price to pay for a guy who could potentially hit .300 with good on base skills and hopefully above average D(haven't read anything about his D). Anybody else think taking a gamble on him could pay off as a relatively cheap way to fill an OF hole for an extended period of time?

 

Kang went from .356/.459/.739/1.198 with 40 homers and 117 RBI in 501 PA in his last year in Korea to .287/.355/.461/.816 in the US in 467 PA's. Just eyeballing, his US AVE and OBP stats were about 80% of what they were in Korea. His power number dropped off even more, at about 60% of OPS. Kang hit homers at less than half the pace he did in Korea. His doubles pace was also much lower.

 

If that were to happen for this guy, he'd be looking at hitting about .265 with an OBP of .325 and an OPS around .525. Taking into account that his OPS couldn't fall that low with those BA and OBP's, he is probably looking at an OPS of around .650 to .700 on the high end, when you look at how low his power numbers were in Korea, and taking a decent cut out of them as well. His career highs for homers is 18, and only 28 for doubles. If he takes a hit like Kang, we are looking at around 10 homers, and 20 to 25 doubles, I would guess.

 

Tyler Saladino put up a .602 OPS at 3B in his cup of coffee here, for perspectives sake.

 

 

 

 

[BaconOnAStick]

I really don't think that's a fair way of evaluating players from overseas leagues. Not saying there's a better way, but I don't know. I'm not sure baseball works like that.

[southsider2k5]

I really don't think that's a fair way of evaluating players from overseas leagues. Not saying there's a better way, but I don't know. I'm not sure baseball works like that.

 

You HAVE to assume that their numbers will take some sort of significant hit. We see it from every single non-MLB league. Players see their numbers suffer coming to a superior MLB experience. The question is how much. When you see the guy who was universally regarded as the top player in Korea take a HUGE haircut on his numbers, I think it is absolutely fair to expect a guy who is putting up numbers that run somewhere around Marcus Semien with a better batting average in a far inferior league will take a big hit in MLB.

[TheFutureIsNear]

Kang went from .356/.459/.739/1.198 with 40 homers and 117 RBI in 501 PA in his last year in Korea to .287/.355/.461/.816 in the US in 467 PA's. Just eyeballing, his US AVE and OBP stats were about 80% of what they were in Korea. His power number dropped off even more, at about 60% of OPS. Kang hit homers at less than half the pace he did in Korea. His doubles pace was also much lower.

 

If that were to happen for this guy, he'd be looking at hitting about .265 with an OBP of .325 and an OPS around .525. Taking into account that his OPS couldn't fall that low with those BA and OBP's, he is probably looking at an OPS of around .650 to .700 on the high end, when you look at how low his power numbers were in Korea, and taking a decent cut out of them as well. His career highs for homers is 18, and only 28 for doubles. If he takes a hit like Kang, we are looking at around 10 homers, and 20 to 25 doubles, I would guess.

 

Tyler Saladino put up a .602 OPS at 3B in his cup of coffee here, for perspectives sake.

 

The only problem is that you are cherry picking an outlier career year for Kang. His 6 year totals are no where near the .359/.459 you used, nor would it be the 80% decline you're talking about. Aside from Kang's monster 2014 Son was consistently a better hitter for average and on base percentage than Kang was in Korea. Power I will give you though, it is fair to assume a significant drop off in power

[Eminor3rd]

A sample of one just isn't enough to make mathematical equivalency conversions, though I applaud your efforts, ss2k5.

 

Realistically, this decision is 100% on the scouts. I'd like them to gamble in the KBO assuming prices don't seem inflated, but only if the scouts like what they see (like they did with Abreu).

[southsider2k5]

A sample of one just isn't enough to make mathematical equivalency conversions, though I applaud your efforts, ss2k5.

 

Realistically, this decision is 100% on the scouts. I'd like them to gamble in the KBO assuming prices don't seem inflated, but only if the scouts like what they see (like they did with Abreu).

 

It is not going to be perfect, obviously, but a guy like Kang was the BIG guy coming out of Korea, and we all see the hit he took.

[Dick Allen]

Remember Hee Seop Choi?

[lasttriptotulsa]

Remember Hee Seop Choi?

 

Not sure how he's comparable. He signed with the Cubs at like 19 and came up through their system. Sure he was highly regarded and kind of fizzled out but it's a lot different than a 28 year told that spent a decade playing in Korea.