David Robertson

[bmags]

Thank you. Sometimes it seems as if I'm the only one who thinks Montas should be given every chance to start. Those relegating him to closer or the bullpen at this point in his career are misguided. He isn't ready to either start or close in the majors yet as he has control and command issues . His upside is still a number 2 starter and that would be extremely valuable to the Sox.

 

The kid will be 23 in March . Give him a chance to reach his potential. He can always be converted to a reliever when he has proven that he can't start.

 

I feel like "Montas won't be a starter" is just a superficial scouting report that catches on because it's repeated ad nauseum. Like "Sale will get Tommy John", a way of discounting needing to look or give them a chance because you know something.

 

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

I feel like "Montas won't be a starter" is just a superficial scouting report that catches on because it's repeated ad nauseum. Like "Sale will get Tommy John", a way of discounting needing to look or give them a chance because you know something.

 

 

It's not though. I usually don't write guys off and in the White Sox case, I won't write off Montas either. He doesn't really have a 3rd pitch though and he has like 45 command. I bet they sell high and use him in a package to a team that thinks he can start.

[SCCWS]

Yup. Shockingly one can argue quite easily that Robertson was better than Kimbrel last year. For whatever that is worth...

 

 

This. BoSox fans logic silly per usual.

 

Not sure I agree. Kimbrel had a 90% save rate on a slightly worse team. I am not big on War for relievers but Kimbrel was better there as well. If I was Hahn I would have been tempted by that package since it had a couple of pretty highly rated middle infielders that were blocked in Boston.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Not sure I agree. Kimbrel had a 90% save rate on a slightly worse team. I am not big on War for relievers but Kimbrel was better there as well. If I was Hahn I would have been tempted by that package since it had a couple of pretty highly rated middle infielders that were blocked in Boston.

 

 

You actually can. They had very similar season's.

 

Robertson: 1.8 fWAR, 2.52 FIP, 3.41 ERA, GB% 35.6, 0.99 HR/9, 1.85 BB/9, and 12.22K/9 in 63.1 innings.

 

Kimbrel: 1.5 fWAR, FIP 2.68, ERA 2.58, GB% 46, 0.91 HR/9, 3.34 BB/9, and 13.20K/9 in 59.1 innings.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

It's not though. I usually don't write guys off and in the White Sox case, I won't write off Montas either. He doesn't really have a 3rd pitch though and he has like 45 command. I bet they sell high and use him in a package to a team that thinks he can start.

 

He has fastball slider and changeup and while you think trading him now would be selling high imagine if he improves his control and command of those 3 pitches . Then we all look back and say we sold Montas off way too low. He could add a 2 seamer or curve along the way . He has grown by leaps and bounds since the Sox acquired him. Now everyone is all of a sudden buying into his growth all of a sudden stopping or slowing to a crawl.

 

How many scouting reports or evaluators also thought Sale was a reliever ? If he continues the learning curve he's been on then you are looking at the right handed version of Sale .

[Eminor3rd]

I was a Montas believer until I saw a good bit of his very straight fastball. That pitch with average/below-average control just doesn't play several times through the batting order. Developing either (1) above average control or (2) a substantial amount of movement on his fastball are each very tall orders. They are possible, and I'd of course like to see them try, but they are not likely.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I can't think of a nice way of saying this but there are no similarities between the two other than that they throw FB-SL-CH.

You think I was comparing their physiques or their paths to the majors ?? Of course I brought Sale up because of FB SL and CU .

 

I don't know how fast you expect Montas to develop but if you look at where he was and where he is now you are selling him short.

[VAfan]

Whether you put Montas in the pen, or keep trying to develop him as a reliever, the Sox should trade David Robertson if they can get something back for him and not have to eat any of his contract.

 

There are no indications that the Sox are going to do enough to contend in 2016, which makes Robertson almost worse than useless. He is blocking other pitchers from developing into closers, which will then increase their value to the team. Jones is the obvious choice if Montas is kept in the minors to develop command as a starter. Plus, the Sox could really use the Robertson contract money to spend elsewhere.

 

 

[witesoxfan]

I guess you're talking about Robertson. Do you really think the Sox couldn't get anything but salary relief for him after what Kimbrel got ?

 

I know Robertson isn't as young or as good as Kimbrel but he is still worth a prospect, maybe even a good one.

 

Cali, you're awesome, but you lose, literally everything at

 

"as young or as good."

 

Nevermind that Kimbrel is younger on top of it too.

 

Robertson has value, and in a world where we're realizing that high leverage situations mean more (meaning the f***ing Royals won a World Series with a pitching AAA rotation, outside of Cueto), Robertson is still making too much for that.

 

Also, it's worth mentioning that the rest of the baseball world feels that Dombrowski overpaid badly on that trade.

 

I think the trade market for relief pitchers will be strong this winter and if the Sox decide to move him they should get something back and shouldn't have to pay any of his salary unless they want to upgrade who they get back. He has a history of being a consistently strong closer. His salary should not be any kind of issue for teams looking for a reliable closer.

 

Recent history has proven that teams are willing to take chances on late inning relievers early in the season, and if those don't work out, they make a move for them later. If you disagree with this, excluding the trade of Brad Lidge from Houston to Philadelphia (which was a dollars on the dime trade to begin with), I'd love to see the last trade that occurred in the offseason that moved a medium salaried reliever to another team, let alone one of the highest paid relievers in the league.

[GreenSox]

Also, it's worth mentioning that the rest of the baseball world feels that Dombrowski overpaid badly on that trade.

He did. It was the "perfect storm" and unlikely to be replicated.

1)Dombrowski as a GM overpays*; 2)Boston had the farm to support overpaying; and most of all 3)Dombrowski's achilles heel in Detroit was that bullpen. There was no way he was going to let it happen in Boston.

 

KW was like that too. Overpaid. It was okay when the Sox had a top farm, like we did c. 2000-2005. But he started getting squeezed as the farm deteriorated.

 

I used to be all for trading bullpen pitchers. But their value is skyrocketing. The modern pen requires 3 lockdown guys (Sox have one lockdown guy). Maybe that their value is skyrocketing is another reason to trade them - I don't know.

Edited November 18, 2015 by GreenSox

[Dick Allen]

He did. It was the "perfect storm" and unlikely to be replicated.

1)Dombrowski as a GM overpays*; 2)Boston had the farm to support overpaying; and most of all 3)Dombrowski's achilles heel in Detroit was that bullpen. There was no way he was going to let it happen in Boston.

 

KW was like that too. Overpaid. It was okay when the Sox had a top farm, like we did c. 2000-2005. But he started getting squeezed as the farm deteriorated.

 

I used to be all for trading bullpen pitchers. But their value is skyrocketing. The modern pen requires 3 lockdown guys (Sox have one lockdown guy). Maybe that their value is skyrocketing is another reason to trade them - I don't know.

Who are all the star prospects KW got rid of?

 

People like to play both sides of the fence.

 

KW was an idiot and drafted no one who could play, and KW was an idiot, he traded away all his good prospects. You can't have it both ways.

[bmags]

2 years ago Montas made a huge jump into prospect status, he's now 21 and has another jump to make (but that's possible). I bring up sale not as a quality barometer, but when that was thrown at sale it was a) actually likely but b) not something that should overshadow what's there.

 

He's 21 with better stuff than most. Nobody is hurting his development by letting him pitch as a starter while he grows. I don't care if he's used in a trade, but all of the "Oh I saw Montas pitch once and knew he'd never make it"...okay, I've read people make this same comment on young prospects quite often and were proven wrong, and also proven right. it's not that interesting, but he needs to develop and this is what it looks like.

[LDF]

Who are all the star prospects KW got rid of?

 

People like to play both sides of the fence.

 

KW was an idiot and drafted no one who could play, and KW was an idiot, he traded away all his good prospects. You can't have it both ways.

 

at the time, no one knew what the future would hold. until later the future played itself out.

[Balta1701]

I disagree. His third pitch is isn't developing, his command is suspect, he's overweight, he has bad knees, he hasn't gone deep in games at any level, his future indicators do not inspire confidence, etc. If I am the Sox, I see his market and move him for the right package or I continue to develop him as a starter with the understanding he's more than likely a reliever.

I disagree with all this except for the point of his command being an issue. "Not going deep into games at any level" is 100% what I would expect from his background. Just look at it - at age 17/18 he was in the Dominican Summer League pitching 20 innings per year. He threw 40 innings in the low minors at age 19.

 

At that same age, Carlos Rodon threw 114 innings.

 

Just look at that track and ask yourself how far behind that would leave him even if everything were perfect. You're surprised at him not going deep into games? Yeah he probably threw a few extra innings in summer ball elsewhere, but a guy on a big league track from the U.S. is getting SO much more work it's not funny.

 

Every single one of those things you just mentioned can fit easily into this narrative. He isn't going long into games? 3 seasons ago he threw 40 innings. He hasn't gotten his command down yet or his 3rd pitch isn't developed? He's thrown 380 innings in the minors in 6 seasons. Carlos Rodon threw 360 in the three seasons where he was 19, 20, and 21.

 

You can't be surprised when a guy is behind the curve set by your #1 prospect when he starts of WAY behind that curve.

[Hatchetman]

Balta bringing some heat tonight!

[GreenSox]

Who are all the star prospects KW got rid of?

 

People like to play both sides of the fence.

 

KW was an idiot and drafted no one who could play, and KW was an idiot, he traded away all his good prospects. You can't have it both ways.

Prospects are currency. I understand that you disagree...you only want to look retrospectively. There is an opportunity cost as well.

He overpaid for Garcia (yes it worked out; top 10 prospect in baseball and a starting catcher can fetch more than a mid rotation starter), Vasquez, Ritchie, Swisher (and then turned around and gave him away for non-prospects), Jackson, et al.

[Balta1701]

Balta bringing some heat tonight!

See, I can still be positive about guys in our organization

[Chicago White Sox]

Prospects are currency. I understand that you disagree...you only want to look retrospectively. There is an opportunity cost as well.

He overpaid for Garcia (yes it worked out; top 10 prospect in baseball and a starting catcher can fetch more than a mid rotation starter), Vasquez, Ritchie, Swisher (and then turned around and gave him away for non-prospects), Jackson, et al.

Dude, Freddy Garica was 10th in pitching WAR in 2004. Stop with this mid rotation bulls***. He was a key contributer on a World Series winnig team, the trade is more than justified. And that doesn't include the below market extension he signed (which was a major reason we traded for him) and the fact that he eventually brought us back Gio Gonzalez & Gavin Floyd.

Edited November 19, 2015 by Chicago White Sox

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I think there's a decent chance this is his high point in value.

 

As far as your Sale-Montas comparison I just don't get the logic. The three pitches they throw don't make them similar. By that logic, we can move Montas because we have another Montas on the way with Danish.

 

OK geez rabbit if I have to spell it out for you. Both throw fastballs in the high 90's range and 95+ consistently. Both have sliders that are their main putaway pitch or out pitch or K pitch whatever you want to call it. the change up is both their least used pitch at least until Sale really started throwing the change a lot to cut down on his slider total.

 

Can't use Danish because he isn't a hard thrower. I really thought you had more on the ball than me having to explain it to you.

 

I don't understand why you think his growth is over since you said you think he is already at peak value. He tore it up at A ball ,continued to improve in AA so much so that he got called up. When the Sox got him he was just a thrower and in 2 years he was pitching in the majors having lowered his walk rate dramatically. He was a 20 year throw-in in the Peavy trade .If you don't have hope (and I think this is realistic hope that he can be a valuable piece of the rotation) what does a prospect have to do to get you excited ?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Cali, you're awesome, but you lose, literally everything at

 

"as young or as good."

 

Nevermind that Kimbrel is younger on top of it too.

 

Robertson has value, and in a world where we're realizing that high leverage situations mean more (meaning the f***ing Royals won a World Series with a pitching AAA rotation, outside of Cueto), Robertson is still making too much for that.

 

Also, it's worth mentioning that the rest of the baseball world feels that Dombrowski overpaid badly on that trade.

 

 

 

Recent history has proven that teams are willing to take chances on late inning relievers early in the season, and if those don't work out, they make a move for them later. If you disagree with this, excluding the trade of Brad Lidge from Houston to Philadelphia (which was a dollars on the dime trade to begin with), I'd love to see the last trade that occurred in the offseason that moved a medium salaried reliever to another team, let alone one of the highest paid relievers in the league.

 

I said that he wasn't as young or as good meaning "ok he's not worth 4 prospects but he is worth one good one. Ad the quy who originaly wrote what I responded too admitted he didn't think their salary's were similar.

 

Anyway we'll see what happens. Robertson probably doesn't get moved anyway. Imagine what the Sox record might've been had they not had Robertson. I know we'd be getting close to the number 1 pick perhaps. It so sucks that all those FA signings went south so badly.

 

Plus I don't know quite what you mean by "the rest of the baseball world". I know a lot of writers thought he overpaid. But writers are like teachers in the sense that those who can ,"do" and those who can't , "teach" . It's yet to be determined whether or not it was an overpay. If Boston does another worst to 1st and their BP comes up aces and those prospects don't amount to a hill of beans then who wins ?

[Dick Allen]

Prospects are currency. I understand that you disagree...you only want to look retrospectively. There is an opportunity cost as well.

He overpaid for Garcia (yes it worked out; top 10 prospect in baseball and a starting catcher can fetch more than a mid rotation starter), Vasquez, Ritchie, Swisher (and then turned around and gave him away for non-prospects), Jackson, et al.

I do 't disagree. KW got a lot of value for s***ty prospects. No he didn't overpay for Garcia. It helped him win a title. You could have watched Jeremy Reed fail with the White Sox or watch Freddy Garcia win the clinching WS game. Guys like Phil Rogers rank guys on BA and a lot of it based on BS they get from Minor league guys. You love the former, I choose the later. And Reed was never a top 10 prospect in baseball.

 

I guess I am more interesting in how the player actually performs, not by what they are ranked before they play a major league game.

Edited November 19, 2015 by Dick Allen

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I disagree with all this except for the point of his command being an issue. "Not going deep into games at any level" is 100% what I would expect from his background. Just look at it - at age 17/18 he was in the Dominican Summer League pitching 20 innings per year. He threw 40 innings in the low minors at age 19.

 

At that same age, Carlos Rodon threw 114 innings.

 

Just look at that track and ask yourself how far behind that would leave him even if everything were perfect. You're surprised at him not going deep into games? Yeah he probably threw a few extra innings in summer ball elsewhere, but a guy on a big league track from the U.S. is getting SO much more work it's not funny.

 

Every single one of those things you just mentioned can fit easily into this narrative. He isn't going long into games? 3 seasons ago he threw 40 innings. He hasn't gotten his command down yet or his 3rd pitch isn't developed? He's thrown 380 innings in the minors in 6 seasons. Carlos Rodon threw 360 in the three seasons where he was 19, 20, and 21.

 

You can't be surprised when a guy is behind the curve set by your #1 prospect when he starts of WAY behind that curve.

 

Thank you. I'm glad you spelled it all out in detail. I took the shortcut and just said look where he's come from and look where is is at now. Maybe I assumed too much .

[Chicago White Sox]

I don't think Montas is anywhere close to a finished product, but I'd seriously considering moving him now due to health & durability concerns. His weight & knee issues are more worrisome to me than his ability to improve his control, add movement to his fastball, and/or refine his secondary offerings. Not saying he's definitely going to break-down, but he's a high-risk prospect from a health standpoint and a guy that might be at peak value as some teams likely believe he can still be a starter. If you can use him as a major piece in a trade for a bat, then I say do it.

Edited November 19, 2015 by Chicago White Sox

[Boopa1219]

The Astros are looking for a closer.

[rowand's rowdies]

I think the Astros match up nicely with us. If they send us 2 solid young bats, I'm ready to see D Rob in an Astros uniform. Otherwise, I don't mind seeing him dominate half the time he goes out there.