Sports Mockery fixes the White Sox

[Chicago White Sox]

That's just not true. Quintana's career high is 5.1 fWAR, and he's projected at 3.6 by Steamer. He CAN be a 5 win guy, but that's not conservative at all. He's probably most likely a 4 win guy, conservatively 3.5.

No offense, but why does Steamer matter? Quintana put up fWARs of 5.1 & 4.8 the last two seasons. Unless you overweight his first two MLB seasons (as a developing 23 & 24 year old), he's basically been a 5 WAR pitcher. So why should we expect Quintana to pitch closer to his sophomore campaign than his age 25 & 26 seasons? Quite frankly, a 3.6 WAR projection for him next year is garbage no matter how you slice the numbers.

Edited November 26, 2015 by Chicago White Sox

[Eminor3rd]

No offense, but why does Steamer matter? Quintana put up fWARs of 5.1 & 4.8 the last two seasons. Unless you overweight his first two MLB seasons (as a developing 23 & 24 year old), he's basically been a 5 WAR pitcher. So why should we expect Quintana to pitch closer to his sophomore campaign than his age 25 & 26 seasons? Quite frankly, a 3.6 WAR projection for him next year is garbage no matter how you slice the numbers.

 

It matters because it actually takes regression into account. You can say it's an imperfect system, but it's a hell of a lot more accurate than the typical fan "projection" which is always expecting every player to perform at their peak. OP said that a "conservative projection" is matching his career high. That's ridiculous. Any given player is never "likely" to match their career year at any given time.

[Eminor3rd]

I went a bit overboard by saying "conservatively", but Quintana has been worth 9.9 fWAR over the last two years, so saying he's a 5 WAR pitcher is reasonable. Conservatively, he'd be a 4 WAR per year pitcher. This doesn't address that calling Puig a 4 WAR per year OF is fairly generous.

 

I think it's reasonable to call them both 4-ish win players. Quintana's contract is better and he's coming off a better season, so he's got more value. Some of that is negated by the fact that pitchers are more volatile than position players.

 

I agree that Quintana has more value than Puig, but the difference is not anywhere in the same universe as including either Seager or Urias, let alone both of them. Including Avi is nothing; he's close to worthless right now. Montas is nice but again not even close to either of those other guys.

[Chicago White Sox]

It matters because it actually takes regression into account. You can say it's an imperfect system, but it's a hell of a lot more accurate than the typical fan "projection" which is always expecting every player to perform at their peak. OP said that a "conservative projection" is matching his career high. That's ridiculous. Any given player is never "likely" to match their career year at any given time.

But why should we expect a 27 year old pitcher to regress? And you keep harping on his career high 5.1 WAR season, but his next season was a 4.8 WAR season. It's not like his career high season was much of an outlier. Again, I'm not sure how any projection system could come up with a 3.6 WAR protection for Quintana next year. That's a 25% drop in production vs. his two-year run rate (the only years he wasn't a developing pitcher). Given he's only 26, it's hard for me to believe he's already peaked and should start trending downwards. The guy is safely a 4.0 WAR pitcher and a good a 50/50 forecast would be a 4.5 WAR season in 2016. Unless Steamer is intended to be ridiculously conservative (what's the value in it then?), I think it's pretty fair to say their projection for Jose Quintana alone is bunk.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I think it's reasonable to call them both 4-ish win players. Quintana's contract is better and he's coming off a better season, so he's got more value. Some of that is negated by the fact that pitchers are more volatile than position players.

 

I agree that Quintana has more value than Puig, but the difference is not anywhere in the same universe as including either Seager or Urias, let alone both of them. Including Avi is nothing; he's close to worthless right now. Montas is nice but again not even close to either of those other guys.

 

Exactly.

 

Quintana for Puig is slightly favorable in the Dodgers favor, in my opinion. But the combination of Seager and Urias (Top 2 prospects in baseball) are FAR FAR FAR FAR more valuable than Avi, Montas, and Nate Jones.

 

I mean, hell, you could remove Puig completely from that deal and the Dodgers probably would not even do it.

Edited November 26, 2015 by Chilihead90