"Addressing the White Sox'' Defensive Problem"

[Eminor3rd]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/addressing-...ensive-problem/

 

Addressing the White Sox’ Defensive Problem

 

by Matthew Kory - November 24, 2015

 

Simplicity can be a good goal to have, but often the real world won’t allow it. Life creates uncertainty and complexity and this can be a problem when attempting to determine the proper path to take. For example, should I put down the computer right now and find out what my son is repeatedly slamming into the wall, or should I try to finish this thought? The answer, in this case: probably just finish this thought while simultaneously hoping not to see a hammer on its way through the living room sheetrock. It might not ultimately be the optimal decision, but it’s the best one at which I can arrive given the information at my disposal.

 

The White Sox are in a similar situation. Fortunately for them, it has nothing to do either with my feral child nor the hammers he’s always carrying, but rather their major league roster — and, specifically, whether to rebuild or restock it (which can, in some ways, be even more daunting). As things currently stand, they don’t know what to do this offseason. Are they rebuilding? Adding on? What does Ken Williams think about the definitive direction of the team?

 

[tweet]

 

Thanks, Scott Merkin! That sure was timely. I’m not here to argue that the White Sox should blow things up or stand pat. They could go either way, but regardless of whether they take the We-Want-to-Win-Now direction or the We-Want-to-Win-Later direction, they’re going to have to do something about their defense.

 

Oh. You clicked the link? I thought I was done. Point made, right? But fine. I’ll give you some numbers then because numbers = fun. By our metrics the White Sox were the worst defensive team in baseball last season. In fact, by FanGraphs Def, they graded out at -41.5 whereas the second-worst team, San Diego, produced a mark of -31.4. Yeesh. But that’s just one number, or one set of numbers, so maybe the White Sox really weren’t that bad. Defensive numbers are iffy after all, and though I’d rather be at the top of the rankings than the absolute bottom, it’s possible the White Sox weren’t really that bad. So how about their defensive efficiency, the ability to turn batted balls into outs? Good news! They were only the third-worst team in baseball. Hooray for small favors. Chicago turned 68.9% of batted balls into outs last year. For context, Colorado was worst, at 68.2%, while Toronto was best, at 72.1%. All of which means that, yes, the White Sox were abysmal defensively in 2015.

 

So it rather goes without saying that they need to be better in 2016. Okay, so how do they get better? Well, this is sort of the crux of the problem, right? Fortunately for Chicago, 2015 is over, so perhaps some players on the roster can improve while others can be switched out for players who are better defensively. Who were the biggest problems defensively last season? Who were the (relative) bright spots? Maybe it’s easier to just look at who played the most and go from there. Six players recorded roughly 1,000 defensive innings for the White Sox last year.

 

Alexei Ramirez (0.5)

Melky Cabrera (-14.2)

Adam Eaton (-8.0)

Avisail Garcia (-12.0)

Jose Abreu (-10.2)

Carlos Sanchez (6.1)

 

As you can see, of those six, four were negative players defensively — and one of the two who wasn’t a liability is now a free agent. This is what is technically known as a “bad start.” Worse, the Negative Four (either a straight edge punk band or a group of your relatives sitting in the corner muttering about the Thanksgiving mean you just cooked) are all slated to play a lot again in 2016. What is a team to do?

 

The White Sox are reportedly shopping Garcia, apparently with the intention of replacing him in right field with Trayce Thompson. Thompson has a very short track record as a major league player, but the numbers like what he’s done so far, so it’s likely he’s at least somewhat of an upgrade defensively over Garcia. That’s a start, but clearly not nearly enough.

 

A potential solution to multiple positions can be found at DH, where the team has secured Adam LaRoche‘s services through this 2016 season for $13 million. LaRoche isn’t a wonderful defender in his own right (thus his spot as a DH), but he’s not far removed from being a plus hitter. Moving him to a team in need of offense and/or a first baseman opens up the DH slot for either Melky Cabrera or Jose Abreu, both of whom you’d like to remove from their current positions. I was going to advocate keeping Abreu at first, but he’s played bad defense for two seasons now, rendering him something of a known quantity at first base. So perhaps it makes sense to move Abreu to DH and see if Cabrera can, with some help via good coaching, reasonably approximate a league-average first baseman. If he can, you’ve removed negatives both in left field and at first base while keeping the bats of both Abreu and Cabrera in the lineup at only the cost of some portion of one season of Adam LaRoche.

 

Of course, that means the team will need to come up with another outfielder. It would be easy to suggest the White Sox should target the best defensive outfielder on the market, and so I will suggest that the White Sox target the best defensive outfielder on the market. The tough part about that is the best defensive outfielder on the market is Jason Heyward, who will likely command in the neighborhood of $200 million on his next contract. It’s difficult to see the White Sox jumping at the chance to put down that kind of money — that doesn’t seem to be their style — but if ever there were a good match between player skill-set and team needs, this is it. The White Sox desperately need more hitting, and they badly need it to come from an above average fielder. Also, at least as far as Heyward goes, it matters less whether the team plans to compete now or in the near future because Heyward is so young that he’ll still be in his prime years even if the White Sox take a season or two to get the roster going.

 

If Heyward proves to be too expensive, perhaps the White Sox could look at someone cheaper, like Denard Span. Span is coming off injury, so there is some risk present. That said, he’s played mostly center field in his career, so moving him to a corner spot figures to be an upgrade, if he’d agree to do it. Someone who figures to slot in between Span and Heyward on the salary scale is Dexter Fowler. Fowler isn’t a spectacular defender, but again he’s a center fielder who could likely fit well into a corner spot and figures to upgrade the offense as well. Either player would achieve the stated goal of improving the team defense both at first and in left.

 

I didn’t address everything here. Obviously the White Sox will need a shortstop, and going into the season with Mike Olt as their starting third baseman is potentially… interesting. Still, even with those unknowns, by making the changes outlined above, the White Sox could go so far as to be an average defensive team next season. That would be an upgrade and a step towards complexity. Life is more fun that way.

[Hatchetman]

Well that was a waste of time reading that.

[shysocks]

That wasn't a great article. The solutions he suggested were either unrealistic (Move Melky to first base? How do we know he can play first base? People need to stop just suggesting shuffling guys all over the diamond like it's easy), obvious (Here are a few good outfielders, sign one!), or both (Sign Jason Heyward!).

 

But I agree with the premise that if you're debating whether to get a bat or a glove to replace Avi/Alexei, you go with the glove.

[bmags]

This article is about as good a response as I could muster over the idea that the sox have "plenty of outfielders". We have 1 outfielder and a lot of DH's.

[bmags]

Also, the line that laroche isn't a great defender but is a plus bat....

[shysocks]

But I agree with the premise that if you're debating whether to get a bat or a glove to replace Avi/Alexei, you go with the glove.

That came out wrong. Obviously we need bats and gloves alike and I wouldn't want to just fill the team with a bunch of Tyler Saladinos. But it will be easier to acquire gloves, and they'd synergize with the strong pitching staff a bit.

[thxfrthmmrs]

This article is about as good a response as I could muster over the idea that the sox have "plenty of outfielders". We have 1 outfielder and a lot of DH's who aren't very good with the bat either.

 

Why the Sox were a mediocre team.

[bmags]

That came out wrong. Obviously we need bats and gloves alike and I wouldn't want to just fill the team with a bunch of Tyler Saladinos. But it will be easier to acquire gloves, and they'd synergize with the strong pitching staff a bit.

 

No, I completely agree with your premise.

[LDF]

 

many thanks for posting the article. another slant on the sox and i enjoyed reading it.

[LDF]

That came out wrong. Obviously we need bats and gloves alike and I wouldn't want to just fill the team with a bunch of Tyler Saladinos. But it will be easier to acquire gloves, and they'd synergize with the strong pitching staff a bit.

 

i am with you but now is the time to see if they can acquire anything.... remember who the owner is and the cost factor.