Is there a club who holds their cards closer to the vest than Sox?

[BlackSox13]

I know, I know, thread derailment. The bolded is completely false.

How so?

[asindc]

A 73 win team trading 4 players, 3 of whom would have helped the team (the fourth a prospect) for a 1-year rent, is not well-conceived, even had Samardzija pitched as people thought.

I guess the Sox thought they could contend, but that was howling at the moon. Hopefully they are more sensible this off-season.

 

Only Semien had a possible future with the Sox among the 4 traded, and Sanchez is a lateral move replacement for him, given Sanchez's superior defense. The Sox gave up nothing they could not afford to. Pretending otherwise doesn't make it so. Answer this question: Do you think any team would pay $90 million over 5 years to acquire those 4 players?

Edited December 6, 2015 by asindc

[Southwest Sider]

How so?

 

Anyone can take a guess as to what might happen and end up looking brilliant in the future if they were correct. It would seem, though, that if it was really true that it was inherently obvious that Jeff Samardzija would have a terrible year, then one is left wondering what is wrong with the people who run this team? Are they so stupid as to miss this obvious mistake? I fully realize that this organization is not the most competent one out there, but I am not a believer that they are so incompetent that they would miss the most obvious things in the baseball world.

 

Making a trade, giving up a few prospects and quasi-big league players, for a guy who is, in the very least, a workhorse pitcher makes complete sense to me. The idea was that we would sign him to a contract extension should things work out. Our rotation would be further bolstered for years by a good Samardzija. There was even seemingly some mutual interest early in his tenure in Chicago. Then things derailed. The fact of the matter is, it didn't work out. People who were nay saying were correct. But it made sense. I'd do the trade again, in a heart beat, to potentially acquire another piece of the rotation puzzle.

 

However, from the comments I have read about how really obvious it was to some that this wouldn't work out, then I must be just as ignorant as our front office. I guess we're all just a bunch of damned fools. Shucks...

 

If I were JR, I'd sign onto this website and private message everyone here who knows better then his team. Get that advice on big time decisions instead of listening to someone who graduated from Harvard and a bunch of people who have been around baseball their entire lives who are paid to make these decisions. Big time decisions can be tough to make, this was one of them, it didn't work out, and at the end of the day to anyone who ended up correct, I still say to them... Good guess.

Edited December 6, 2015 by South Sider

[asindc]

Anyone can take a guess as to what might happen and end up looking brilliant in the future if they were correct. It would seem, though, that if it was really true that it was inherently obvious that Jeff Samardzija would have a terrible year, then one is left wondering what is wrong with the people who run this team? Are they so stupid as to miss this obvious mistake? I fully realize that this organization is not the most competent one out there, but I am not a believer that they are so incompetent that they would miss the most obvious things in the baseball world.

 

Making a trade, giving up a few prospects and quasi-big league players, for a guy who is, in the very least, a workhorse pitcher makes complete sense to me. The idea was that we would sign him to a contract extension should things work out. Our rotation would be further bolstered for years by a good Samardzija. There was even seemingly some mutual interest early in his tenure in Chicago. Then things derailed. The fact of the matter is, it didn't work out. People who were nay saying were correct. But it made sense. I'd do the trade again, in a heart beat, to potentially acquire another piece of the rotation puzzle.

 

However, from the comments I have read about how really obvious it was to some that this wouldn't work out, then I must be just as ignorant as our front office. I guess we're all just a bunch of damned fools. Shucks...

 

If I were JR, I'd sign onto this website and private message everyone here who knows better then his team. Get that advice on big time decisions instead of listening to someone who graduated from Harvard and a bunch of people who have been around baseball their entire lives who are paid to make these decisions. Big time decisions can be tough to make, this was one of them, it didn't work out, and at the end of the day to anyone who ended up correct, I still say to them... Good guess.

 

Absolutely.

 

[kitekrazy]

Anyone can take a guess as to what might happen and end up looking brilliant in the future if they were correct. It would seem, though, that if it was really true that it was inherently obvious that Jeff Samardzija would have a terrible year, then one is left wondering what is wrong with the people who run this team? Are they so stupid as to miss this obvious mistake? I fully realize that this organization is not the most competent one out there, but I am not a believer that they are so incompetent that they would miss the most obvious things in the baseball world.

 

Making a trade, giving up a few prospects and quasi-big league players, for a guy who is, in the very least, a workhorse pitcher makes complete sense to me. The idea was that we would sign him to a contract extension should things work out. Our rotation would be further bolstered for years by a good Samardzija. There was even seemingly some mutual interest early in his tenure in Chicago. Then things derailed. The fact of the matter is, it didn't work out. People who were nay saying were correct. But it made sense. I'd do the trade again, in a heart beat, to potentially acquire another piece of the rotation puzzle.

 

However, from the comments I have read about how really obvious it was to some that this wouldn't work out, then I must be just as ignorant as our front office. I guess we're all just a bunch of damned fools. Shucks...

 

If I were JR, I'd sign onto this website and private message everyone here who knows better then his team. Get that advice on big time decisions instead of listening to someone who graduated from Harvard and a bunch of people who have been around baseball their entire lives who are paid to make these decisions. Big time decisions can be tough to make, this was one of them, it didn't work out, and at the end of the day to anyone who ended up correct, I still say to them... Good guess.

 

Well it doesn't mean they are good at it either. They seem to have "bad luck" when it comes to veteran NL players.

 

[BlackSox13]

I didn't like the idea myself because of Samardzija, his impending FA and that was before the trade. Also didn't like giving up Bassitt or Ravelo but s*** happens I suppose. Despite not agreeing with it, I understand the logic behind the trade since the Sox truely believed they would be contenders but things didn't work. No way could anyone could have envisioned so many things going wrong on so many levels.

 

 

Anyone can take a guess as to what might happen and end up looking brilliant in the future if they were correct. It would seem, though, that if it was really true that it was inherently obvious that Jeff Samardzija would have a terrible year, then one is left wondering what is wrong with the people who run this team? Are they so stupid as to miss this obvious mistake? I fully realize that this organization is not the most competent one out there, but I am not a believer that they are so incompetent that they would miss the most obvious things in the baseball world.

 

Making a trade, giving up a few prospects and quasi-big league players, for a guy who is, in the very least, a workhorse pitcher makes complete sense to me. The idea was that we would sign him to a contract extension should things work out. Our rotation would be further bolstered for years by a good Samardzija. There was even seemingly some mutual interest early in his tenure in Chicago. Then things derailed. The fact of the matter is, it didn't work out. People who were nay saying were correct. But it made sense. I'd do the trade again, in a heart beat, to potentially acquire another piece of the rotation puzzle.

 

However, from the comments I have read about how really obvious it was to some that this wouldn't work out, then I must be just as ignorant as our front office. I guess we're all just a bunch of damned fools. Shucks...

 

If I were JR, I'd sign onto this website and private message everyone here who knows better then his team. Get that advice on big time decisions instead of listening to someone who graduated from Harvard and a bunch of people who have been around baseball their entire lives who are paid to make these decisions. Big time decisions can be tough to make, this was one of them, it didn't work out, and at the end of the day to anyone who ended up correct, I still say to them... Good guess.

I agree with you here but just to be clear I wasn't only referring to the Samardzija trade when I said " No way could anyone could have envisioned so many things going wrong on so many levels". That was an over all reference to the numerous other things that went wrong along with Samardzija's bad season.

 

Another thing I'd like to clarify real quick is that while I was very much against the Samardzija trade, in no way did I think he would be as bad as he was in '15. I definitely did not see that coming.

Edited December 6, 2015 by BlackSox13

[LDF]

I agree with you here but just to be clear I wasn't only referring to the Samardzija trade when I said " No way could anyone could have envisioned so many things going wrong on so many levels". That was an over all reference to the numerous other things that went wrong along with Samardzija's bad season.

 

Another thing I'd like to clarify real quick is that while I was very much against the Samardzija trade, in no way did I think he would be as bad as he was in '15. I definitely did not see that coming.

 

nor the team.

 

remember.... the was a poll of how many games the sox would win.... many participated in that poll, including me.... the feeling then was the sox would pull off a magical season and go the playoff.

[BlackSox13]

nor the team.

 

remember.... the was a poll of how many games the sox would win.... many participated in that poll, including me.... the feeling then was the sox would pull off a magical season and go the playoff.

Yep. Pretty sure I had them in the 85-87 win range or there abouts.

[LDF]

Yep. Pretty sure I had them in the 85-87 win range or there abouts.

 

with my negative rant on the system before the spring training, i was still more than positive that the sox would have done great.

 

i predicted over 90 wins. i was way off.... but i still hold my head high, b/c i counter was the manager and lady luck. so many negatives went wrong last yr. so many.

[Balta1701]

I agree with you here but just to be clear I wasn't only referring to the Samardzija trade when I said " No way could anyone could have envisioned so many things going wrong on so many levels". That was an over all reference to the numerous other things that went wrong along with Samardzija's bad season.

 

Another thing I'd like to clarify real quick is that while I was very much against the Samardzija trade, in no way did I think he would be as bad as he was in '15. I definitely did not see that coming.

The White Sox did not have that many things go wrong. The specific discussion there is on Samardzija - Samardzija in 2012 put up 2.7 fWAR, Samardzija in 2013 put up 2.7 fWAR...Samardzija in 2015 put up 2.7 fWAR. Combine bad defense behind him with playing in the AL and basically his season was close to "comparable with what you'd expect from him". That's what the Giants are paying him to do. If "a guy not putting up a career year" is something going wrong, the problem is not with things going wrong, it's your planning.

 

Then take a look at the FA market. I looked through the list of last year's FAs. If you go through the list of guys who signed for legit money (not replacement players) you'll find that if you picked 3 at random, you'd get about 1 guy who lived up to his contract, 1 guy who was ok but disappointed relativet o his money, and the third guy would be a bust. The White Sox signed 3 big FAs last year, Robertson lived up to or even slightly exceeded his money, Cabrera was disappointing, and LaRoche was a bust. Our performance in the FA market last year was just about average. Duke disappointed, but we got a helluva lot more wins out of Soto than anyone imagined. The problem wasn't the White Sox having "so many things go wrong", it was the White Sox believing they could somehow outsmart the FA market to completely rebuild their roster.

 

On top of that, look at defense. Name a strong defender the White Sox brought in. The defense being terrible was basically item #1 on our preseason plan. That can't be treated as something going wrong when we did nothing to make it any better.

 

Then look at our guys. The org penciled in Garcia to be a near all star last year. What did they do to make that happen? As far as I can tell they stuck their fingers in their ears and said louder "He'll be great!" any time someone pointed out an issue with him. There was no overhaul of his approach at the plate. He was the same weak hitter and crappy defender on April 1 that he was on September 30. Then Hell, we brought up a 2b who had injury problems and a month of experience above AA and we were totally shocked that he didn't have a good approach in the running game, couldn't stay healthy, and was weak on defense. Gillaspie and Flowers had better seasons in 2014 than 2015, but are you going to say you were 100% confident in those guys? Enough to bet a $120 million payroll?

 

The fact that we are surprised by these things is sad. Saying "guys will be great!!!" more loudly doesn't make them better players. The moves they had to make these guys better, new hitting coach and new baserunning coach, did jack squat or even made them worse, and that was seemingly a huge part of the White Sox's plan to compete.

 

Turn it around. If the White Sox had somehow won 88 games last year, what would we be saying about some of the other things that happened? "The White Sox were insanely healthy last year. Sale missed 1 start on the DL, aside from that, name a key player that spent time on the DL. Albers on a self inflicted wound? No one got seriously hurt. Our entire starting rotation stayed healthy. Our entire starting lineup stayed healthy. Our closer stayed healthy. A couple guys missed games here and there and that was it. The year beforehand, Abreu hit the 15 day DL, Garcia hit the 60 day DL, Sale missed 6 weeks, and Eaton missed like 6 weeks. None of those guys got hurt! On top of that, no one got their knee torn up by a guy sliding in at 2nd, there were no freak OF collisions, no one broke a hand on a HBP, how on Earth did all that happen?" Baseball teams don't get that lucky with health, it's unheard of.

 

Then who had Trayce coming up and hitting like Mike Trout for 2 months? Who predicted Saladino coming up and being one of the best IF defenders in the league?

 

This team was built on the assumptions that: high-risk older guys would get better or at least not get old, everyone would stay healthy, defense didn't matter, and talent would develop because we said it would. This was not "everything going wrong". This was "Everything playing out exactly the way it was supposed to...but the people in the front office deluding themselves into believing the rules didn't apply to them."

[BlackSox13]

The White Sox did not have that many things go wrong. The specific discussion there is on Samardzija - Samardzija in 2012 put up 2.7 fWAR, Samardzija in 2013 put up 2.7 fWAR...Samardzija in 2015 put up 2.7 fWAR. Combine bad defense behind him with playing in the AL and basically his season was close to "comparable with what you'd expect from him". That's what the Giants are paying him to do. If "a guy not putting up a career year" is something going wrong, the problem is not with things going wrong, it's your planning.

 

Then take a look at the FA market. I looked through the list of last year's FAs. If you go through the list of guys who signed for legit money (not replacement players) you'll find that if you picked 3 at random, you'd get about 1 guy who lived up to his contract, 1 guy who was ok but disappointed relativet o his money, and the third guy would be a bust. The White Sox signed 3 big FAs last year, Robertson lived up to or even slightly exceeded his money, Cabrera was disappointing, and LaRoche was a bust. Our performance in the FA market last year was just about average. Duke disappointed, but we got a helluva lot more wins out of Soto than anyone imagined. The problem wasn't the White Sox having "so many things go wrong", it was the White Sox believing they could somehow outsmart the FA market to completely rebuild their roster.

 

On top of that, look at defense. Name a strong defender the White Sox brought in. The defense being terrible was basically item #1 on our preseason plan. That can't be treated as something going wrong when we did nothing to make it any better.

 

Then look at our guys. The org penciled in Garcia to be a near all star last year. What did they do to make that happen? As far as I can tell they stuck their fingers in their ears and said louder "He'll be great!" any time someone pointed out an issue with him. There was no overhaul of his approach at the plate. He was the same weak hitter and crappy defender on April 1 that he was on September 30. Then Hell, we brought up a 2b who had injury problems and a month of experience above AA and we were totally shocked that he didn't have a good approach in the running game, couldn't stay healthy, and was weak on defense. Gillaspie and Flowers had better seasons in 2014 than 2015, but are you going to say you were 100% confident in those guys? Enough to bet a $120 million payroll?

 

The fact that we are surprised by these things is sad. Saying "guys will be great!!!" more loudly doesn't make them better players. The moves they had to make these guys better, new hitting coach and new baserunning coach, did jack squat or even made them worse, and that was seemingly a huge part of the White Sox's plan to compete.

 

Turn it around. If the White Sox had somehow won 88 games last year, what would we be saying about some of the other things that happened? "The White Sox were insanely healthy last year. Sale missed 1 start on the DL, aside from that, name a key player that spent time on the DL. Albers on a self inflicted wound? No one got seriously hurt. Our entire starting rotation stayed healthy. Our entire starting lineup stayed healthy. Our closer stayed healthy. A couple guys missed games here and there and that was it. The year beforehand, Abreu hit the 15 day DL, Garcia hit the 60 day DL, Sale missed 6 weeks, and Eaton missed like 6 weeks. None of those guys got hurt! On top of that, no one got their knee torn up by a guy sliding in at 2nd, there were no freak OF collisions, no one broke a hand on a HBP, how on Earth did all that happen?" Baseball teams don't get that lucky with health, it's unheard of.

 

Then who had Trayce coming up and hitting like Mike Trout for 2 months? Who predicted Saladino coming up and being one of the best IF defenders in the league?

 

This team was built on the assumptions that: high-risk older guys would get better or at least not get old, everyone would stay healthy, defense didn't matter, and talent would develop because we said it would. This was not "everything going wrong". This was "Everything playing out exactly the way it was supposed to...but the people in the front office deluding themselves into believing the rules didn't apply to them."

This is a great post and you make numerous good points. What I'm referring to is nobody had foreseen the collapse of LaRoche, Eaton's dWAR going from 1.8 in '14 to -1.1 in '15, the collapse of Samardzija.

 

I give the Sox a pass on Avi since despite the results the Sox needed to give Avi a full season to see what he could do, or not do.

 

Melky, sigh, not sure what to say other than he was supposed to be a defensive upgrade over Tank despite Melky not being good defensively.

 

Alexei's regression I feel was a somewhat obvious one to see coming due to his age and trend.

 

Gillaspie' '14 bat had me fooled to the point to where I was fine with him at 3B but looking back, well, yeah nuff said.

 

Flowers, yep same old s***.

 

From my POV there were some things the Sox should have seen coming but there were some things they couldn't have seen coming without advice from Nostradamus first.

[Balta1701]

This is a great post and you make numerous good points. What I'm referring to is nobody had foreseen the collapse of LaRoche, Eaton's dWAR going from 1.8 in '14 to -1.1 in '15, the collapse of Samardzija.

Samardzija didn't "Collapse" though, as I said above he put up exactly the same fWAR he put up in 2013 and 2014. You can't be surprised by that! You can't be surprised when "Guy doesn't put up career year!"

 

Eaton's defense was worse in 2015, but he produced more runs on offense and was a better baserunner, making him about the same player overall per game, and he played more games.

 

And yes, you couldn't predict the collapse of LaRoche specifically, but if you sign 3 free agents, you should expect 1 of them to collapse. Maybe it would have been Cabrera, maybe Robertson, but 1 of them was going to fail badly. Especially if those 3 FAs are the mid-level guys where the risk seems to be the highest - for highest level FAs, sometimes teams just don't have the money to sign guys and they are legitimately outbid, but at the mid-level, every guy you sign is a guy the team could sign and they say "He's not worth it". Every guy we signed was a guy that their own team could have signed and they decided they had better places to spend their money. If you're counting on zero out of 3 of those guys to fail...your season will be a failure because at least one, maybe more than 1 will be disappointing or extremely bad.

From my POV there were some things the Sox should have seen coming but there were some things they couldn't have seen coming without advice from Nostradamus first.

If "things that happen to everyone" are "terrible luck" when they happen to your team, the problem is your plan. You couldn't predict the specific things that happen...but you could absolutely predict "some bad things will happen". Maybe it's not a 36 year old hitting the wall at mid-season, it's a pitcher spraining an ankle or Chase Utley sliding into 2nd base against you. We built a team that needed nothing to go wrong whatsoever, then bet $120 million and traded away a bunch of players based on that bet. That's a sucker bet!

[GreenSox]

Excellent posts, Balta.

And it wouldn't surprise me if they repeat the foolishness of the winter of 2014.

[Dick Allen]

Samardzija didn't "Collapse" though, as I said above he put up exactly the same fWAR he put up in 2013 and 2014. You can't be surprised by that! You can't be surprised when "Guy doesn't put up career year!"

 

Eaton's defense was worse in 2015, but he produced more runs on offense and was a better baserunner, making him about the same player overall per game, and he played more games.

 

And yes, you couldn't predict the collapse of LaRoche specifically, but if you sign 3 free agents, you should expect 1 of them to collapse. Maybe it would have been Cabrera, maybe Robertson, but 1 of them was going to fail badly. Especially if those 3 FAs are the mid-level guys where the risk seems to be the highest - for highest level FAs, sometimes teams just don't have the money to sign guys and they are legitimately outbid, but at the mid-level, every guy you sign is a guy the team could sign and they say "He's not worth it". Every guy we signed was a guy that their own team could have signed and they decided they had better places to spend their money. If you're counting on zero out of 3 of those guys to fail...your season will be a failure because at least one, maybe more than 1 will be disappointing or extremely bad.

 

If "things that happen to everyone" are "terrible luck" when they happen to your team, the problem is your plan. You couldn't predict the specific things that happen...but you could absolutely predict "some bad things will happen". Maybe it's not a 36 year old hitting the wall at mid-season, it's a pitcher spraining an ankle or Chase Utley sliding into 2nd base against you. We built a team that needed nothing to go wrong whatsoever, then bet $120 million and traded away a bunch of players based on that bet. That's a sucker bet!

If everything about Samardzija was predictable and he performed exactly as you expected, how come you said the White Sox shouldn't risk offering him the QO, and posted many times he wouldn't sign until May?

[Balta1701]

If everything about Samardzija was predictable and he performed exactly as you expected, how come you said the White Sox shouldn't risk offering him the QO, and posted many times he wouldn't sign until May?

I'm genuinely surprised anyone wants him, but the lesson I'm going to learn from that is "the people playing the free agent market are even stupider than I think". Will you learn that lesson as well?

 

However, the "shouldn't risk offering him the QO" is you again projecting your own prejudices.

So take those philosophies and turn them into a 2016 format. We are not a competitive roster in 2016. We'd need a huge amount to go right in 2016 to be competitive. It could happen but it is extremely unlikely and we need to act like it.

 

1. Decline Alexei Ramirez's option. Tyler Saladino is your starting 2016 SS. He may very well fail badly at this job but if he does then late in the season Tim Anderson takes the job from him. If his defense carries over from 3b, his bat just has to be "adequate" for him to be a really valuable player. If his bat could be adequate, he could turn into a valuable enough piece that maybe we think of moving Anderson elsewhere, where defense isn't quite as important (3b?) or we look at Saladino as a valuable trade chip late in the season. If his bat is inadequate, at least he'll hopefully catch the ball a few times and get experience enough to count on him as a utility player.

 

If Anderson hits well enough and plays solid D in the first half at Charlotte, he comes up and takes that job at the deadline unless Saladino genuinely earns it. Tim Anderson should not reach the big leagues before July under any circumstance other than "major injuries in the big leagues leaving no choice"

 

That position is first on the list because the option we have there is overpaid & a key part of the problem. Picking up his option is the top "we're going to compete again this year darnit!" move. It's the top signal of this team remaining in denial about 2015. That's why I expect them to do the exact opposite.

 

2. Once Alexei is gone, you have more money to play with. The first place to gamble it is on offering Samardzija the QO. With Alexei's money cleared you can gamble on that to try to get the draft pick, if he comes back it genuinely screws with your rotation, but with Alexei out of the way that doesn't ruin your ability to make other moves.

[LDF]

The White Sox did not have that many things go wrong. The specific discussion there is on Samardzija - Samardzija in 2012 put up 2.7 fWAR, Samardzija in 2013 put up 2.7 fWAR...Samardzija in 2015 put up 2.7 fWAR. Combine bad defense behind him with playing in the AL and basically his season was close to "comparable with what you'd expect from him". That's what the Giants are paying him to do. If "a guy not putting up a career year" is something going wrong, the problem is not with things going wrong, it's your planning.

 

Then take a look at the FA market. I looked through the list of last year's FAs. If you go through the list of guys who signed for legit money (not replacement players) you'll find that if you picked 3 at random, you'd get about 1 guy who lived up to his contract, 1 guy who was ok but disappointed relativet o his money, and the third guy would be a bust. The White Sox signed 3 big FAs last year, Robertson lived up to or even slightly exceeded his money, Cabrera was disappointing, and LaRoche was a bust. Our performance in the FA market last year was just about average. Duke disappointed, but we got a helluva lot more wins out of Soto than anyone imagined. The problem wasn't the White Sox having "so many things go wrong", it was the White Sox believing they could somehow outsmart the FA market to completely rebuild their roster.

 

On top of that, look at defense. Name a strong defender the White Sox brought in. The defense being terrible was basically item #1 on our preseason plan. That can't be treated as something going wrong when we did nothing to make it any better.

 

Then look at our guys. The org penciled in Garcia to be a near all star last year. What did they do to make that happen? As far as I can tell they stuck their fingers in their ears and said louder "He'll be great!" any time someone pointed out an issue with him. There was no overhaul of his approach at the plate. He was the same weak hitter and crappy defender on April 1 that he was on September 30. Then Hell, we brought up a 2b who had injury problems and a month of experience above AA and we were totally shocked that he didn't have a good approach in the running game, couldn't stay healthy, and was weak on defense. Gillaspie and Flowers had better seasons in 2014 than 2015, but are you going to say you were 100% confident in those guys? Enough to bet a $120 million payroll?

 

The fact that we are surprised by these things is sad. Saying "guys will be great!!!" more loudly doesn't make them better players. The moves they had to make these guys better, new hitting coach and new baserunning coach, did jack squat or even made them worse, and that was seemingly a huge part of the White Sox's plan to compete.

 

Turn it around. If the White Sox had somehow won 88 games last year, what would we be saying about some of the other things that happened? "The White Sox were insanely healthy last year. Sale missed 1 start on the DL, aside from that, name a key player that spent time on the DL. Albers on a self inflicted wound? No one got seriously hurt. Our entire starting rotation stayed healthy. Our entire starting lineup stayed healthy. Our closer stayed healthy. A couple guys missed games here and there and that was it. The year beforehand, Abreu hit the 15 day DL, Garcia hit the 60 day DL, Sale missed 6 weeks, and Eaton missed like 6 weeks. None of those guys got hurt! On top of that, no one got their knee torn up by a guy sliding in at 2nd, there were no freak OF collisions, no one broke a hand on a HBP, how on Earth did all that happen?" Baseball teams don't get that lucky with health, it's unheard of.

 

Then who had Trayce coming up and hitting like Mike Trout for 2 months? Who predicted Saladino coming up and being one of the best IF defenders in the league?

 

This team was built on the assumptions that: high-risk older guys would get better or at least not get old, everyone would stay healthy, defense didn't matter, and talent would develop because we said it would. This was not "everything going wrong". This was "Everything playing out exactly the way it was supposed to...but the people in the front office deluding themselves into believing the rules didn't apply to them."

 

as i have said in the previous post, so many things went wrong, and i highlighted your post as the same. i know in the end you mention about some of the examples i would use, but i want to post this in my way.

 

what went wrong that affect last yr team.

 

Sale got hurt,

Shark not performing in the beginning of the season as he should have

the whole team offensive slump.

bad defense at 2b (mj)

bad defense and hitting 3b

everything at dh

alexei not producing

avi not producing as he should

adam e not hitting as he could

melky not producing as he was pd to do

flower continue hitting in the low 205 range

hector noesi 2014 performance disappeared.

webb couldn't do anything right.

sox had no pitchers ready to step in and help .... putting Rodon in the rotation maybe a tad early??

 

lastly, rv key screw up in a game which escalated his scrutiny of whether he is a manager.... then the session the front office made public of to discuss situations with him....( note. i can remember how it was phrase here. )

 

you add all this.... it really sunk the team. the real question should be, could another manger, another FO personnel have seen it and could have done something to at least stop that momentum???

 

this is what i mean that so many things went wrong.

 

[LDF]

This is a great post and you make numerous good points. What I'm referring to is nobody had foreseen the collapse of LaRoche, Eaton's dWAR going from 1.8 in '14 to -1.1 in '15, the collapse of Samardzija.

 

I give the Sox a pass on Avi since despite the results the Sox needed to give Avi a full season to see what he could do, or not do.

 

Melky, sigh, not sure what to say other than he was supposed to be a defensive upgrade over Tank despite Melky not being good defensively.

 

Alexei's regression I feel was a somewhat obvious one to see coming due to his age and trend.

 

Gillaspie' '14 bat had me fooled to the point to where I was fine with him at 3B but looking back, well, yeah nuff said.

 

Flowers, yep same old s***.

 

From my POV there were some things the Sox should have seen coming but there were some things they couldn't have seen coming without advice from Nostradamus first.

 

oops i made my post before i saw yours.... sorry.

[LDF]

Samardzija didn't "Collapse" though, as I said above he put up exactly the same fWAR he put up in 2013 and 2014. You can't be surprised by that! You can't be surprised when "Guy doesn't put up career year!"

 

Eaton's defense was worse in 2015, but he produced more runs on offense and was a better baserunner, making him about the same player overall per game, and he played more games.

 

And yes, you couldn't predict the collapse of LaRoche specifically, but if you sign 3 free agents, you should expect 1 of them to collapse. Maybe it would have been Cabrera, maybe Robertson, but 1 of them was going to fail badly. Especially if those 3 FAs are the mid-level guys where the risk seems to be the highest - for highest level FAs, sometimes teams just don't have the money to sign guys and they are legitimately outbid, but at the mid-level, every guy you sign is a guy the team could sign and they say "He's not worth it". Every guy we signed was a guy that their own team could have signed and they decided they had better places to spend their money. If you're counting on zero out of 3 of those guys to fail...your season will be a failure because at least one, maybe more than 1 will be disappointing or extremely bad.

 

If "things that happen to everyone" are "terrible luck" when they happen to your team, the problem is your plan. You couldn't predict the specific things that happen...but you could absolutely predict "some bad things will happen". Maybe it's not a 36 year old hitting the wall at mid-season, it's a pitcher spraining an ankle or Chase Utley sliding into 2nd base against you. We built a team that needed nothing to go wrong whatsoever, then bet $120 million and traded away a bunch of players based on that bet. That's a sucker bet!

 

but in the beginning of the season and for a month after, he didn't put up those numbers. then he was lights out.

 

hind sight, esp if you accumulate all the other things that went bad.... it just spiral out of control.

 

[BlackSox13]

Samardzija didn't "Collapse" though, as I said above he put up exactly the same fWAR he put up in 2013 and 2014. You can't be surprised by that! You can't be surprised when "Guy doesn't put up career year!"

 

Eaton's defense was worse in 2015, but he produced more runs on offense and was a better baserunner, making him about the same player overall per game, and he played more games.

 

And yes, you couldn't predict the collapse of LaRoche specifically, but if you sign 3 free agents, you should expect 1 of them to collapse. Maybe it would have been Cabrera, maybe Robertson, but 1 of them was going to fail badly. Especially if those 3 FAs are the mid-level guys where the risk seems to be the highest - for highest level FAs, sometimes teams just don't have the money to sign guys and they are legitimately outbid, but at the mid-level, every guy you sign is a guy the team could sign and they say "He's not worth it". Every guy we signed was a guy that their own team could have signed and they decided they had better places to spend their money. If you're counting on zero out of 3 of those guys to fail...your season will be a failure because at least one, maybe more than 1 will be disappointing or extremely bad.

 

If "things that happen to everyone" are "terrible luck" when they happen to your team, the problem is your plan. You couldn't predict the specific things that happen...but you could absolutely predict "some bad things will happen". Maybe it's not a 36 year old hitting the wall at mid-season, it's a pitcher spraining an ankle or Chase Utley sliding into 2nd base against you. We built a team that needed nothing to go wrong whatsoever, then bet $120 million and traded away a bunch of players based on that bet. That's a sucker bet!

If all of this was so predictable then why didn't anyone predict it in the first place? That's what I've been getting at and why I said what I initially said and I stand by it. The Sox had numerous holes to fill so they tried to fill those holes as best they could within their means in an effort to contend. It's easy now to look back and point out the failures but that's all in hindsight so I fail to see the point.

 

You make some great points that I agree with Balta but you are coming across as though you had seen all these things coming. Maybe I missed your posts last winter/spring where you predicted these things but I don't recall anyone foreseeing everything that happened in '15. Again, its all in hindsight.

 

 

[BlackSox13]

oops i made my post before i saw yours.... sorry.

 

 

but in the beginning of the season and for a month after, he didn't put up those numbers. then he was lights out.

 

hind sight, esp if you accumulate all the other things that went bad.... it just spiral out of control.

Lol, we are definitely seeing things from the same perspective LDF.

[OmarComing25]

Samardzija didn't "Collapse" though, as I said above he put up exactly the same fWAR he put up in 2013 and 2014. You can't be surprised by that! You can't be surprised when "Guy doesn't put up career year!"

 

Eaton's defense was worse in 2015, but he produced more runs on offense and was a better baserunner, making him about the same player overall per game, and he played more games.

 

And yes, you couldn't predict the collapse of LaRoche specifically, but if you sign 3 free agents, you should expect 1 of them to collapse. Maybe it would have been Cabrera, maybe Robertson, but 1 of them was going to fail badly. Especially if those 3 FAs are the mid-level guys where the risk seems to be the highest - for highest level FAs, sometimes teams just don't have the money to sign guys and they are legitimately outbid, but at the mid-level, every guy you sign is a guy the team could sign and they say "He's not worth it". Every guy we signed was a guy that their own team could have signed and they decided they had better places to spend their money. If you're counting on zero out of 3 of those guys to fail...your season will be a failure because at least one, maybe more than 1 will be disappointing or extremely bad.

 

If "things that happen to everyone" are "terrible luck" when they happen to your team, the problem is your plan. You couldn't predict the specific things that happen...but you could absolutely predict "some bad things will happen". Maybe it's not a 36 year old hitting the wall at mid-season, it's a pitcher spraining an ankle or Chase Utley sliding into 2nd base against you. We built a team that needed nothing to go wrong whatsoever, then bet $120 million and traded away a bunch of players based on that bet. That's a sucker bet!

 

 

I'm genuinely surprised anyone wants him, but the lesson I'm going to learn from that is "the people playing the free agent market are even stupider than I think". Will you learn that lesson as well?

 

However, the "shouldn't risk offering him the QO" is you again projecting your own prejudices.

I agree that this year didn't come out of left field as some implied, but I think it's funny that you use fWAR only when it suits your argument, even in the same post/thread. You noted in an earlier thread about the consistent discrepancies between Samardzija's bWAR and fWAR, and have said multiple times that defense can't be blamed for his poor numbers. Yet now you're claiming his 2015 equaled his 2013 and 2012 production. However, in the very same thread, you're surprised that anyone would want him, even though he just put up a 2.7 WAR. Why wouldn't a team want a 2.7 WAR pitcher? What's wrong with his fWAR value now? Seems inconsistent.

[LDF]

Lol, we are definitely seeing things from the same perspective LDF.

 

scary uh....

 

[LDF]

I agree that this year didn't come out of left field as some implied, but I think it's funny that you use fWAR only when it suits your argument, even in the same post/thread. You noted in an earlier thread about the consistent discrepancies between Samardzija's bWAR and fWAR, and have said multiple times that defense can't be blamed for his poor numbers. Yet now you're claiming his 2015 equaled his 2013 and 2012 production. However, in the very same thread, you're surprised that anyone would want him, even though he just put up a 2.7 WAR. Why wouldn't a team want a 2.7 WAR pitcher? What's wrong with his fWAR value now? Seems inconsistent.

 

i respect what you are saying esp with the advance stats.... since i do not know of this stats, i will settle on one point.

 

things that happen coming out of left field. i will respectfully challenge anyone to point out that it was known and proven to have seen this before the end of the season.

 

i just don't know enuf of the stat thingy to have a good understanding of your counter.

[BlackSox13]

scary uh....

 

Indeed. What was this thread about again?