Heyman: Justin Upton to the Tigers

[fathom]

Is it Hahn's fault if they aren't allowed to spend though?

 

He was allowed to spend last year and couldn't have gotten less bang for the buck

[caulfield12]

No its not a certainty. But we know they won't have a budget even asbig as theCubs so it is thebest chance to have a consistent winner. Posters keep using the criticism of "only one playoff appearance since 2005". This is because they haven't taken the time to build it, they have just tried to win this year.

 

 

Therein lies the problem...even if Anderson and Fulmer are even better than expected (in 2017), you're wasting another season and lowering your aggregate revenues even more prior to next year.

 

Unless there are tremendous breakthroughs in the farm system, then we'll be in that rare position of having a 3rd quartile payroll, a Bottom 5 farm system and lacking the front office willpower to take on any more longer-term deals because of the fear they'll bust like Dunn/LaRoche/Cabrera. Our orientation is neither towards the future nor towards the present.

 

It just makes giving four years to Robertson when now two of them might have been wasted seem even more ill-advised...we would have been better off letting the Yankees claim him and freeing up that money for hitting, because we've historically been much better at unearthing closers than developing outfielders.

Edited January 19, 2016 by caulfield12

[Bigsoxhurt35]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/

 

Another reason following up the loss of Cespedes/Upton with the signing of Fowler would be foolish...

 

Where exactly is that Samardzija compensation pick as of today, btw?

Agreed. It's one thing to give it up for Upton but no chance in hell for Fowler. I'll take a big contract with Cespedes and 3 top 50 picks

[Eminor3rd]

Is it Hahn's fault if they aren't allowed to spend though?

 

I should clarify: when I say "Hahn" in this context, I'm referring to "the current White Sox front office braintrust that is (at least) expressly led by Rick Hahn."

 

I have no idea whether it was Hahn, KW, JR, or anyone else who has been deciding to "only go to three years at all costs" at this point, and I don't think there's any way to know. And so I don't really care to speculate.

 

But whoever it is is missing the forest for the trees, IMO. It would be one thing if these guys were successfully demanding $200m deals, but to refuse to play at the salaries that Gordon/Upton have demanded is to entirely ignore the ocntext of their current situation. And that is just really bad, dumb decision-making.

 

They can still get Cespedes, but it sure is hell isn't going to come at a comfortable price now, as there are too many suitors still remaining that are now realizing they overplayed their hands. They can still settle for an overrated guy like Fowler or a bounce-back hopeful and/or average-ish role player like Jackson, but neither situation will be as cost-effective or efficient as being the first team to offer Upton $20m/year for ages 28-34 -- and both alternatives may very well end up being a handful of wins short of enough for the post-season.

Edited January 19, 2016 by Eminor3rd

[caulfield12]

The impact: Yes, the Tigers are getting old in some places. Victor Martinez is 37, Ian Kinsler turns 34 in June, and Miguel Cabrera will be 33 in April. But the lineup still looks imposing on paper, and the Tigers have a chance to vault Minnesota, Cleveland and Chicago and give the world champion Royals a run if they get any kind of pitching at all.

 

A lot depends on health, of course. Cabrera missed 43 games with calf and back issues last season on his way to capturing his fourth career batting title, and Martinez missed 42 games while logging a career-worst .667 OPS. Detroit’s offense slumped to 10th in the American League in runs after ranking second in that category in each of the previous two seasons.

 

Even though Upton will be playing in the American League for the first time, he should slide nicely into the No. 5 spot in a predominantly right-handed Detroit lineup. The Tigers aren’t asking Upton to carry the team. If he can approximate his career .271/.352/.473 slash line, he’ll lengthen out the middle of the order and be a welcome addition at Comerica Park.

 

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/i...of-justin-upton

Jerry Crasnick

[ptatc]

Therein lies the problem...even if Anderson and Fulmer are even better than expected (in 2017), you're wasting another season and lowering your aggregate revenues even more prior to next year.

 

Unless there are tremendous breakthroughs in the farm system, then we'll be in that rare position of having a 3rd quartile payroll, a Bottom 5 farm system and lacking the front office willpower to take on any more longer-term deals because of the fear they'll bust like Dunn/LaRoche/Cabrera. Our orientation is neither towards the future nor towards the present.

 

It just makes giving four years to Robertson when now two of them might have been wasted seem even more ill-advised...we would have been better off letting the Yankees claim him and freeing up that money for hitting, because we've historically been much better at unearthing closers than developing outfielders.

I agree with the Robertson part. However with the rest of it, I'm the first to say that ALL prospects are suspects. However since it is obvious the the team ownership/management either cant or won't have a near 200 million payroll, it is the only viable optiin to build a consistent winner.

[Chicago White Sox]

Is it Hahn's fault if they aren't allowed to spend though?

If he wasn't allowed to spend, then he should have taken advantage of the insane pitching market and rebuilt the organization. And I doubt Reinsdorf is putting a 3 year cap on free agent signings one offseason after we signed Robertson to a four year deal.

 

I still believe this has all been posturing, but I'm quickly losing my optimism here.

Edited January 19, 2016 by Chicago White Sox

[caulfield12]

PTAC, the problem isn't needing a $200 million payroll.

 

It's needing to spend in the $140-150 range or being better off at half that and investing all the profits into international acquisitions/minor leagues/development.

 

Even at that range, we're still going to be 3rd in our own division, and the Twins have a heckuva lot better farm system/future prospects outlook than we do.

 

It's the trap we've fallen into by:

 

1) Not developing any impact hitters

2) Graduating all our pitchers quickly into the majors, where they make the roster more cost-effective but can't be spared to trade for position players without creating another hole to be filled

3) Making a series of bad FA decisions, starting with Dunn and now continuing with last year's class

 

In the past, the only thing that helped us escape was being able to identify Abreu/Ramirez/Quintana. The other one that comes to mind was acquiring Carlos Quentin. Where/when/how are they going to pull another unexpected rabbit out of the hat again?

 

It seems that, along with those FA moves, the acquisitions of Avi and Davidson instead of say Iglesias and Inciarte have really put us behind the 8 ball.

 

 

 

[Marky Mark]

Well, I guess the Tigers are going to have to make a trade for Melvin now.

[Flash Tizzle]

Correct. Currently only a few keepers. This is why they need to be patient and continue to make good trades and short term FAs. This way can have good teams until they can produce better players. They won't survive a total strip down like the Cubs.

How do you know they wouldn't survive a strip down? That is what irritates me so much, this defeatist attitude of accepting mediocrity and "going for it" (meanwhile we're at best a .500 team) based upon the same f***ing system that hasn't led us anywhere since 2008!

 

I was all in support of rebuilding this offseason, but after trading for Frazier and Lawrie (which were both good deals) we almost had to sign one of Gordon, Upton or Cespedes to add another legitimate mid-order bat. Whatever excuse there is, thus far we've failed. Improving to .500 and wasting yet another season of our starting pitching is a disgrace. If you're going to go for it......gor for it all the way. How are we going to acquire a middle of the order bat next offseason with slim pickings?

[caulfield12]

Carlos Gomez, Colby Rasmus or a 37 year old Jose Bautista will save us!!!

 

Knowing the White Sox, we'll overpay for the last 2-3 declining years of Bautista's MLB career...we're good at that, at least.

[ptatc]

How do you know they wouldn't survive a strip down? That is what irritates me so much, this defeatist attitude of accepting mediocrity and "going for it" (meanwhile we're at best a .500 team) based upon the same f***ing system that hasn't led us anywhere since 2008!

 

I was all in support of rebuilding this offseason, but after trading for Frazier and Lawrie (which were both good deals) we almost had to sign one of Gordon, Upton or Cespedes to add another legitimate mid-order bat. Whatever excuse there is, thus far we've failed. Improving to .500 and wasting yet another season of our starting pitching is a disgrace. If you're going to go for it......gor for it all the way. How are we going to acquire a middle of the order bat next offseason with slim pickings?

I don't see building this way as mediocrity. I see that as the procees of sacrificing the future with long term deals.

 

Its just my guess they would survive the strip down. They might. If you were the FO, would you take that chance? I don't think I would

[Flash Tizzle]

If he wasn't allowed to spend, then he should have taken advantage of the insane pitching market and rebuilt the organization. And I doubt Reinsdorf is putting a 3 year cap on free agent signings one offseason after we signed Robertson to a four year deal.

 

I still believe this has all been posturing, but I'm quickly losing my optimism here.

Exactly. If Reinsdorf had a definite limit for spending and Hahn knew he'd unlikely reach it with so many holes and our distance from reasonably competing, we should have been actively shopping our pitching.

 

Did they really believe 3-4 year contract would get it done!?

 

 

[BlackSox13]

JR is going to be 80 years old soon and isn't going to do a rebuild so the "three year window" , "rebuilding on the fly" , "retooling" stuff will continue as it has for the last 8 years or so. I really think KW and Hahn are in a tough spot and I wouldn't want their jobs. With the 120M budget they have to work with, there isn't much of a margin for error. Just one or two bad contracts can really hurt a budget like that.

 

I was hoping for a rebuild last winter but then I realized JR's age and realized it will not happen.

[Thad Bosley]

JR is going to be 80 years old soon and isn't going to do a rebuild so the "three year window" , "rebuilding on the fly" , "retooling" stuff will continue as it has for the last 8 years or so. I really think KW and Hahn are in a tough spot and I wouldn't want their jobs. With the 120M budget they have to work with, there isn't much of a margin for error. Just one or two bad contracts can really hurt a budget like that.

 

I was hoping for a rebuild last winter but then I realized JR's age and realized it will not happen.

Are decisions about this franchise being made in the name of the best long term interests of this franchise, or in the short term interests of its failed owner?

[Real]

LMFAO

 

sox fail once again.

 

at least they're good at something.

 

[caulfield12]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/justin-upton-...826169-mlb.html

 

This Jeff Passan article's also in the Cespedes thread, but well worth reading.

 

I hope it gets delivered to JR, the Pohlads in Minnesota and the Dolans of Cleveland.

 

Somehow I doubt if DET ever does win the World Series that their fans will give it back because their owner's spending was more wasteful...the Ernst & Young MLB "Most Efficient Maximization of Given Resources" Trophy doesn't belong in a trophy case any more than the Attendance Cup does.

[nitetrain8601]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/justin-upton-...826169-mlb.html

 

This Jeff Passan article's also in the Cespedes thread, but well worth reading.

 

I hope it gets delivered to JR, the Pohlads in Minnesota and the Dolans of Cleveland.

 

Somehow I doubt if DET ever does win the World Series that their fans will give it back because their owner's spending was more wasteful...the Ernst & Young MLB "Most Efficient Maximization of Given Resources" Trophy doesn't belong in a trophy case any more than the Attendance Cup does.

 

I haven't read the article, but I don't think you should be wasteful to just say you got someone. I've wanted Cespedes or Upton for awhile. With that stated, I'm not going to say it's a mistake not signing him. There are reasons not to sign someone. My thing is, if you won't sign him because you are still far off from contending and he'll cost big bucks, then you're being just as wasteful, holding onto the "impact" players you do have because you need a ton more pieces than them. Imagine if Chris Sale was on the trade market. You would've gotten 2 or 3 young players who are MLB ready and who have great tools to be great everyday players. Imagine if Q hit the trade market and might even be able to dump one of Danks or LaRoche with him. You would probably get another 2-3 prospects(not as good as the Sale prospects, but very good prospects) who can help you fill out your lineup for years to come. For the ones who don't pan out, you sign FAs in the following years.

 

What's nite's point? It's equally wasteful to sit on the players you do have at 120 million dollars and at best, 3rd place prospects, as it is to sign Cespedes or Upton to large deals if they're not going to turn you into a playoff team.

 

TL;DR - Commit to loading up your team with young talent, even if it means giving up the only 2 great players you have now(Abreu withstanding) or try to compete for the playoffs.

[Whisox05]

JD Martinez, Upton, Castellanos 5-6-7? 489 strikeouts between them

https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/689409042305839106

[Bob Sacamano]

Why do people still make a big deal about strike outs? Didn't Trout lead the league the year he was runner up MVP? It all depends on what you do with your other at bats.

Edited January 19, 2016 by soxfan2014

[caulfield12]

JD Martinez, Upton, Castellanos 5-6-7? 489 strikeouts between them

https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/689409042305839106

 

Didn't the Astros have a lot more?

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/b...nded/order/true

Tigers were 16th, right in the middle of the pack.

 

I'm sure they would trade that for top 2-3 in runs scored. Miggy and V Mart don't strikeout much, so that balances things out a bit.

 

The Cubs were far and away the worst in that category last year.

Edited January 19, 2016 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tige...enech/78991448/

 

Detroit writer asserts team is now a World Series contender again

 

 

 

"He’s an immensely popular owner because he has won championships, but also because he stubbornly refuses to follow convention. He’s contradicting the current baseball trend of getting younger and cheaper. Ilitch fervently believes that star power is a valuable asset. Ilitch told reporters during free agent pitcher Jordan Zimmermann’s introductory news conference Nov. 30 that he’s still not averse to spending big dollars if the right opportunity presented itself.

 

“It might sound silly,” Ilitch said then, “but I don’t care about spending money. I’m supposed to be a good boy and not go over it,” Ilitch said, “but if I think there are certain players that could help us a lot, I’ll go over it. Oops, I shouldn’t have said that.”

 

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tige...litch/78991260/

 

Ilitch accomplished his primary goal with this significant signing. He generated a little more excitement. That’ll sell a few more tickets, even if it doesn’t win that many more ball games."

Edited January 19, 2016 by caulfield12

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Detroit is absolutely up there but gotta play the games.

[Jose Abreu]

The 2016 AL Central is an enigma. There is really a chance for any combination of the five teams in the standings. All 5 teams have rosters that can make the playoffs.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

For Detroit, it'll come down to can guys like Cabrera and Martinez stay healthy? How will their rotation and pen perform. Bullpen has been their Achilles heel for awhile now. They've made some additions.