Cespedes Re-signs with the Mets

[Saufley]

There definitely will be people on this board and off who say Cespedes is a must, who, if Cespedes does become a White Sox will eventually complain about the contract. It's not my money, spend, spend, spend. Of the big 3, Cespedes was my 3rd choice, definitely coming off an outlier year during a contract. Supposedly Beane didn't like him as a player, Boston was happy to get rid of him. He basically carried the Mets to the WS but they only want him back at a cheap rate. He would be an upgrade, and who knows, my handle was known as trouble and a malcontent when he came to the White Sox, maybe he gets with Abreu and that keeps him motivated. He is the best out there now, but if they don't get him and get Fowler or Jackson instead, they still should be an improved team. Any kind of bounce back from LaRoche and they really could be cooking with gas.

 

I loved Dick Allen, as a player, when he was with the Sox! I have to be careful how I phrase this knowing you guys out there.

Edited January 19, 2016 by Saufley

[Pants Rowland]

670 The Score ‏@670TheScore 7m7 minutes ago

 

White Sox among final teams in Yoenis Cespedes sweepstakes -- @MLBBruceLevine with details: http://cbsloc.al/1OE7pfe

 

Levine is a Vag.

[LDF]

Those that may complain about the contract are not the problem. After all, it was not their front office philosophy that mandated filling in all holes with FA/trades in a bid to be immediately competitive. But when that is your strategy, we can have opinions on how to best do that.

 

Mainly because its infuriating to drive 3/4 way to a place and then say "Wellp, that's pretty far, let's tucker in for the night, I'm sure the festival will be there tomorrow"

 

nice analogy.

[Dick Allen]

670 The Score ‏@670TheScore 7m7 minutes ago

 

White Sox among final teams in Yoenis Cespedes sweepstakes -- @MLBBruceLevine with details: http://cbsloc.al/1OE7pfe

This could be true, or it could be the White Sox feeding Levine with being a "finalist" so when he signs with another team, they tried.

 

I have been on record the half assed approach doesn't work. The we will see where we are at around the deadline and act accordingly. That is conceding games. I never would have dreamed in October they would sign Upton or Gordon or Cespedes, but with all the chatter, if they strike out, I'll be disappointed, but if they get one of the next tier guys, and maybe some additional help, they still will upgrade their team immensely. I hate to agree with Caulfield on anything, but if the did get Desmond and Jackson, on paper, they would have a pretty nice line up.

[LDF]

That Dan Hayes stuff yesterday was odd. And if people really thing the White Sox will sign Cespedes if they call 500 people and 450 say they will buy tickets if they do....

 

thanks for this little bit of info.

 

if i was a doom and gloom kind of a poster, i will say the FO is hedging their next move on whether the typical fan will buy season tickets....

 

but as you said, who knows.

[iWiN4PreP]

Get Cespedes and desmond and call it a winter. We are finalists for Ces so just make it happen.

[LDF]

I loved Dick Allen, as a player, when he was with the Sox! I have to be careful how I phrase this knowing you guys out there.

 

DA was the bomb ................ among my fav's as a player.... he was not your typical rah rah kind of player.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

This could be true, or it could be the White Sox feeding Levine with being a "finalist" so when he signs with another team, they tried.

 

I have been on record the half assed approach doesn't work. The we will see where we are at around the deadline and act accordingly. That is conceding games. I never would have dreamed in October they would sign Upton or Gordon or Cespedes, but with all the chatter, if they strike out, I'll be disappointed, but if they get one of the next tier guys, and maybe some additional help, they still will upgrade their team immensely. I hate to agree with Caulfield on anything, but if the did get Desmond and Jackson, on paper, they would have a pretty nice line up.

Me too DA. If they wanted to rebuild I'm all good but whatever ya do don't half ass it. Go all in on a rebuild or revamping the team to take advantage of your core. For me, I like that approach. Try and win with your cost controlled young core. If it doesn't work, you can still move them in two years along with Frazier.

[LDF]

Get Cespedes and desmond and call it a winter. We are finalists for Ces so just make it happen.

 

and maybe it will be me, but that will be a playoff contender.

 

 

yes..... makes it all the better when i come into chi for a visit.

[OmarComing25]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/resetting-t...oenis-cespedes/

 

No two offseasons are alike. Some free-agent crops are bountiful, some less so. Sometimes, like last year, the trade market is on fire. Last winter, position players were on the move in huge numbers, due in part to a spate of new GMs — in particular, A.J. Preller — attempting to make their respective marks. Some years, the Winter Meetings are a virtual swap meet, while in others, they’re marked by a bunch of meetings leading to nowhere. Sometimes, the free-agent market dries up quickly, while in other years, Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, Dexter Fowler, Ian Desmond, Yovani Gallardo, Doug Fister, Mat Latos and many others are still looking for work more than halfway into January.

 

When I wrote the first draft of this post yesterday, I was going to focus on the first two names in that list. Both entered the offseason with designs on a $150-million guarantee. Despite the relative lateness of the free-agent season, Justin Upton nearly reached that mark last night. Yoenis Cespedes remains available, however — and that availability has forced both him and all 30 clubs to step back and reassess his market.

 

For Cespedes, that means deciding whether to prioritize short- or long-term financial goals, while also considering competitive issues and quality of life. Meanwhile, clubs which might not have previously considered themselves as a possible destination for Cespedes are now having to decide whether to make a move in the event that his asking price drop far enough. After all, there really is no such thing as a “buyer” or a “seller”; hypothetically, if the price drops sufficiently low, all 30 clubs should dabble in the buyers’ end.

 

So let’s remove all preconceptions and determine which of the 30 clubs have a hole that could best be addressed by the signing of Cespedes, and examine whether the finances make sense both for player and club.

 

First, the skinny on Cespedes. He will play 2016 at age 30, and is coming off of a career year, accumulating 6.7 WAR in a season split between the Tigers and Mets. Power is his calling card; his batted-ball authority is over a full standard deviation better than league average in the air, on a line and on the ground. His strikeout rate is quite manageable for a power hitter, though his walk rate is disappointing, over a half standard deviation lower than league average. He has a bit of a pull tendency, though not an overly extreme one.

 

He is an infield-overshift consideration, but not a slam-dunk decision. His defensive pedigree is uneven, but he’s coming off of his best year in that department, earning a Gold Glove. His exceptional arm strength is a clear asset. One can even take a deep breath and play him in center field in short stints. Cespedes is a moderate risk, high reward player that Steamer conservatively projects for 2.9 WAR in 2016. He’ll likely pay off on even a high dollar deal for the next three years or so.

 

Importantly, he’s also displayed exceptional durability over the years; health is the sixth tool, and Cespedes possesses it.

 

Below is a comprehensive list of clubs who were projected to generate 1.0 WAR or less in left field, right field or designated hitter this season prior to the Upton signing yesterday. For each, we’ll briefly discuss the potential fit for a big-bat outfielder, both competitively and financially. Opening Day 2015 and current 2016 Opening Day payroll projections are listed. At the end, I’ll add two more clubs who don’t meet the strict criteria stated, but who could factor in anyway.

 

Chi White Sox

Hole: RF, DH

2015 Payroll: $118.6M

2016 Payroll: $119.4M

 

Pretty interesting call for the White Sox here. The AL Central is projected to be even tighter than the East, and one signing could eventually make the difference. The club is committed to going young at shortstop, and has shored up its woeful team defense with the addition of Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie. Do they give Avisail Garcia one more year in right, or do they pull the trigger? Financially, they get out from under incumbent DH Adam LaRoche after this season, so could a slightly backloaded deal for work?

 

Conclusion: A second-tier candidate for Cespedes, though the Tigers’ move for Upton could push them a bit.

 

Baltimore

Hole: LF, RF

2015 Payroll: $119.0M

2016 Payroll: $116.8M

 

OK, Chris Davis is finally in the fold, but this club is currently still projected to start Nolan Reimold and L.J. Hoes at the corner outfield positions. Even with the signing of Davis, their projected 2016 payroll is still a tad behind their 2015 level. Unfortunately for them, their starting pitching needs are just as significant. Think they might like the Mark Trumbo/Steve Clevenger deal back, with the $8 million in savings attached?

 

Conclusion: The O’s have been connected to Cespedes. With Upton off the board, they now figure to be a finalist.

 

NY Mets

Hole: None

2015 Payroll: $101.3M

2016 Payroll: $108.6M

 

Center field is the closest thing the Mets have to a “hole”; Juan Lagares is projected for 1.4 WAR there in 2016. The Mets already boosted their payroll by trading for Cespedes last summer; why wouldn’t they do it again, given how well it worked last time? The main concern is that Cespedes would likely be forced to play more center field this time around, as Michael Conforto would seem to have a lock on most of the left field at-bats. This one bears watching.

 

Conclusion: A very real possibility for Cespedes should he not sign in Baltimore.

 

So there you have it. My prediction? With Upton now off of the board, without needing to take a discount, expect a battle royale among the Orioles, Mets and perhaps a wild card like the White Sox for Cespedes’ services. The market certainly did take a while to define itself, and though a good deal of the industry’s available funds were held by clubs not looking to contend, it does appeal that both Upton and Cespedes will get fair value in the end.

 

Article about all the remaining candidates and their likelihood. Strangely, he puts Baltimore as the current favorites, followed by the Mets. Says we're a second-tier candidate along with the Angels and Giants, and calls the Astros an intriguing dark-horse. Hard to believe the Giants and Orioles would still be possibilities.

Edited January 19, 2016 by OmarComing25

[Bigsoxhurt35]

If they sign Cespedes, I'll be flying from South Carolina to Chicago to see this team.

 

As for Desmond, I'm good either way. It won't be a huge deal but would cost a pick.

[bmags]

Orioles need pitching. Would be interesting if they grabbed Cespedes.

[Saufley]

There definitely will be people on this board and off who say Cespedes is a must, who, if Cespedes does become a White Sox will eventually complain about the contract. It's not my money, spend, spend, spend. Of the big 3, Cespedes was my 3rd choice, definitely coming off an outlier year during a contract. Supposedly Beane didn't like him as a player, Boston was happy to get rid of him. He basically carried the Mets to the WS but they only want him back at a cheap rate. He would be an upgrade, and who knows, my handle was known as trouble and a malcontent when he came to the White Sox, maybe he gets with Abreu and that keeps him motivated. He is the best out there now, but if they don't get him and get Fowler or Jackson instead, they still should be an improved team. Any kind of bounce back from LaRoche and they really could be cooking with gas.

 

I loved it when he would be walking to the plate and in the background you would hear playing "Jesus Christ Superstar".

 

[caulfield12]

Which is riskier, getting buried in the first half of the season again and being paralyzed with indecisiveness again at the trade deadline...or making those moves to fortify your team's team chances from the get go?

 

If they do tread water and are something like 3-7 games behind 1-2 teams again, what possible player could they acquire realistically without trading Fulmer and Anderson that would be convincing to fans like Cespedes now?

 

Would bringing CarGo on board now with his relatively large salary and cost of acquisition move the needle enough? Probably not after fans became enthralled with one of the big names. And his salary isn't too far off from Gordon or Upton.

 

At this point, they have to hope two smaller names gives them the winning team...the same logic as entering 2005. If the best they come up with is Pearce, Victorino or Snider, the fans will understandably be skeptical...and arguing if you're dipping that low into the barrel, better just to see what Avi can do than throw out retreads.

Edited January 19, 2016 by caulfield12

[LDF]

Me too DA. If they wanted to rebuild I'm all good but whatever ya do don't half ass it. Go all in on a rebuild or revamping the team to take advantage of your core. For me, I like that approach. Try and win with your cost controlled young core. If it doesn't work, you can still move them in two years along with Frazier.

 

ok i like what you and DA are saying, but let me asked this.

 

the sox fixed the holes via fa's. and let the farm continue to rebuild, wouldn't this still be the right option???

 

next yr draft, eky on college players to continue to fix the minors..... i mean, we still have to gasp the golden key when it is there. the sox are too deep into this not to continue on the path they are taking.

[ChiSox59]

That Dan Hayes stuff yesterday was odd. And if people really thing the White Sox will sign Cespedes if they call 500 people and 450 say they will buy tickets if they do....

 

Care to share for those of us who don't monitor twitter daily?

[Sockin]

I just want this to be over.

[LDF]

I loved it when he would be walking to the plate and in the background you would hear playing "Jesus Christ Superstar".

 

that is funny................ a nice visual............

[caulfield12]

and maybe it will be me, but that will be a playoff contender.

 

 

yes..... makes it all the better when i come into chi for a visit.

 

That's one eventuality we can be 99.8% certain won't happen.

 

[LDF]

That's one eventuality we can be 99.8% certain won't happen.

 

a little confuse, the sox singing cespy or not signing cesp....

[ptatc]

Well, I disagree that they have done a good job. They have won 63, 72 and 75 games in 3 years. With big upgrades at 3b and possibly at 2b, and possible downgrade at rotation, we are looking at 78-79 wins. In 2 years, when all of these contracts expire, we have to hope that all:

Tim Anderson

Trey M

 

Are in the big leagues and high level producers immediately while we win a lottery ticket with :

Jacob May

Adam Engel

Courtney Hawkins

 

Maybe Adolfo will be a beast and be close to majors in 2 years.

 

Otherwise you are looking at another round of gauge and plug with FA/trades on the minor league front.

 

In four years, the core of Sale/Q/Abreu/Eaton basically falls apart. In two years you are expecting all of our minor league work to pan out. That is doubtful. The best contribution we may see is if Sale/Q/Rodon find themselves supplemented by budding superstars Adams/Fullmer/Danish for one last run.

 

This isn't a "well what's the point of even playing the games!" point. Its just if you really valued having a winner with your current core, and you do not want to give up future competitiveness, then paying the large sum for a player like cespedes is necessary. Otherwise, you will hit a ceiling from the teams that kill us in player development.

I agree that haven't done well. I think it started last year. Previous to that I think it was a "win now" each year. I think it shifted last year. I'm never expecting all of the minor leaguers to work out. As a matter of fact, I'm expecting most won't. However, if you keep adding at least 2-3 each year some will work out and then they will begin to form a pipeline and be more consistent. It won't happen for a few years. However, good trades as they've done this year and short term FA deals as they did last year will help to improve the team as this happens. I have nothing against the FAs or even signing Cespedes, as long as they are short deals. Save the long deals for their own players, the ones they know. You knows I may be wrong and they find they really like Frazier and he wants to stay.

[caulfield12]

ok i like what you and DA are saying, but let me asked this.

 

the sox fixed the holes via fa's. and let the farm continue to rebuild, wouldn't this still be the right option???

 

next yr draft, eky on college players to continue to fix the minors..... i mean, we still have to gasp the golden key when it is there. the sox are too deep into this not to continue on the path they are taking.

 

If we do draft another college pitcher, we're nearing a critical point they almost have to be traded for hitting...

 

At that spot in the draft, you can still find your Wachas and Newcombs. Otherwise, you're waiting until 2019 for likely impact from an advanced college hitter like a Benitendi and then that's really pushing to the end of that window that was supposed to begin last year and is currently pushed back to 2017.

Edited January 19, 2016 by caulfield12

[Bigsoxhurt35]

I still think we need a RHP starter. If we sign Cespedes, who is worth a shot? I know we aren't in on a guy like Gallardo. What's left out there? I predicted Fister awhile ago.

[elrockinMT]

Signing Desmond is interesting. Saladino to a super sub role. Cespedes most likely costs too much

[caulfield12]

a little confuse, the sox singing cespy or not signing cesp....

 

Both Cespedes AND Desmond