Cespedes Re-signs with the Mets

[OmarComing25]

Sox were criticized in the recent past for sticking with Beckham and Viciedo for too long. I hope they've learned their lesson with Garcia. He's shown nothing positive so far aside from his arm.

[ptatc]

Then it's just backlash speculative bulls*** not based on anything concrete against a guy who many are envious. Yes it's one of many things to be investigated. But when it get's more attention than is warranted and is cited as if its a fact it's irresponsible .

 

There's one main reason that the Sox won't go longer term and it's that unless you are the Yankees Dodgers Red Sox it is fiscally irresponsible to hand out longer term contracts that pay for declining years. That has been apparent for years that those deals invariably becomes albatrosses to teams that don't have deep pockets.

 

Unfortunately those contracts have been standard practice in MLB for years but the Sox still play the game hoping against hope and getting all our hopes up by playing the game and coming up short most of the time. When they do play the game and actually sign a FA they end up losing because the 2nd tier guys are almost always ore risky than the 1st tier guys Less financially volatile but more volatile as far as being productive on the field.

 

In the last 2 years the Sox have given up 2 draft choices for free agents and possible a third if Desmond becomes a reality. Also 4 minor leaguers last year and 5 this year . Add up all that and it's 11 players from the minors and possibly 12 . Everyone says oh they will never be impact players . Yet Semien is already in the top 10 MLB SS according to MLB network analysis . Who knows who else may become valuable . Shark Lawrie and Frazier , that's 5 years total on the MLB field for 9 minor leaguers and 2 draft choices.

 

I thought recently Hahn spoke of sustained success . How are they going to do that if they have to keep restocking the farm and getting outbid for FA difference makers ? Dumpster diving is pure luck. Relying on the few high end minor leaguers is highly speculative that they will make it. The only way to win the minor league game is have a deep system where more players can surprise you with unexpected development to offset those who disappoint you. The system is even less deep than it was now. In 2 years we start all over again because Melky, Lawrie Frazier are gone. Or we don't compete in those 2 years and trade off pieces. Either way it's starting over.

 

Hahn has been a colossal failure . Getting Abreu and signing Sale Eaton Quintana to great deals doesn' t come close to all the failed money poured into unproductive FA's and prospects traded off. Those are a lot of players and years of control . So far it's his legacy that being below .500 or investing enough to be .500 and having no farm system is about what to expect.

I think this is something yet to be determined. The Sox switched philosophies with both drafting and handling the MLB roster when he took over. He has received good value for most of his trades and not sacrificed much. The past few drafts are producing MLB talent and provided enough depth to trade for MLB talent. That is really what the minors are for, either being MLB talent or acquiring it yet.

The fact that he doesn't have the budget to take risky chances on long term deals is not his fault. He needs to play with the budget he gets. I think the short term deals for FA combined with the minors producing talent (or acquiring it) is the path to MLB success.

RH has only had the job a few years and I like the philosophy he is following. It is not a quick process and many people aren't satisfied with the short term results but I think in hte long term it will payoff.

[shipps]

I think I am going to be butt-hurt until they make another move. I wasn't Cespedes biggest fan but the lineup clearly needs another impact bat to really be making strides in the right direction.

 

You know what would be nice? If they started to draft position players as well as they draft pitchers. We wouldnt be hoping for the Sox to overpay for someone every off season if that happened.

[chunk23]

Call me crazy but I'm not ready to give up on Avi yet. Cespedes is very inconsistent on offense and may become complacent with a big contract. I would not be surprised at all to see Avi put up numbers similar or better than Cespedes did in 2013 or 2014. Obviously there are still big differences between their defense and base running abilities but if Avi can improve even marginally in both I think he has a shot to be a useful player this year.

 

Avi was historically terrible last year and the historical evidence shows very long odds that he turns into a productive player.

http://www.thecatbirdseatblog.com/blog/201...fe8ddp13er5rjrq

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Call me crazy but I'm not ready to give up on Avi yet. Cespedes is very inconsistent on offense and may become complacent with a big contract. I would not be surprised at all to see Avi put up numbers similar or better than Cespedes did in 2013 or 2014. Obviously there are still big differences between their defense and base running abilities but if Avi can improve even marginally in both I think he has a shot to be a useful player this year.

 

I was as high on Avi as anyone on this board . Ask Eminor about that . But I've moved on. That's not to say I still don't think he's valueless but as of this moment for a team wanting to compete he is valueless.

 

Sports illustrated did an article about Cespedes weighing his last 3 seasons on a 5/4/3 scale . Most of the weight given to last season but only a little more than 2014 and 2014 a little more than 2013. Now 2013 and 2014 are cited as his "inconsistent" years so overall they are weighted more than just his 1 great year. Then they project his value in bWAR for the coming years and what those years would be worth money wise. For someone who is supposedly very inconsistent they said for the 1st 3 years he's projected to be worth $84M , another $23.3 M in the 4th year and $20.3M in a fifth year. In order to get those highly productive 1st 3 years it's been standard practice to pay for a few years where he declines . You just have to hope it isn't a precipitous decline.

 

http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/01/05/whats-he-...des-free-agency

Edited January 22, 2016 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Chisoxfn]

I was pretty anti Avi most of the year, but when you change the role / expectations for him, I think he becomes a far more serviceable player who still does possess some upside. He'll provide nice depth and flexibility and get plenty of at bats during the season. I really like LaRoche / Avi sharing at bats (as long as we get a legit 2+ WAR outfielder as a starter).

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I think this is something yet to be determined. The Sox switched philosophies with both drafting and handling the MLB roster when he took over. He has received good value for most of his trades and not sacrificed much. The past few drafts are producing MLB talent and provided enough depth to trade for MLB talent. That is really what the minors are for, either being MLB talent or acquiring it yet.

The fact that he doesn't have the budget to take risky chances on long term deals is not his fault. He needs to play with the budget he gets. I think the short term deals for FA combined with the minors producing talent (or acquiring it) is the path to MLB success.

RH has only had the job a few years and I like the philosophy he is following. It is not a quick process and many people aren't satisfied with the short term results but I think in hte long term it will payoff.

Samardzija blew up Frazier and Lawrie are only 2 years . Shark was 1 year. Hahn didn't make those trades and FA signings thinking he wouldn't compete. He made them to compete in the short term . If he was playing the long term game and I can admit he still might be then where's the minor league depth ? You like his philosophy. I don't even see a philosophy. We aren't satisfied with the short term results because he's been playing the short term game and losing badly mainly because he can't finish what he started and what he started ends quickly with those traded for gone in 1 or 2 years.

[Thad Bosley]

I was as high on Avi as anyone on this board . Ask Eminor about that . But I've moved on. That's not to say I still don't think he's valueless but as of this moment for a team wanting to compete he is valueless.

 

Sports illustrated did an article about Cespedes weighing his last 3 seasons on a 5/4/3 scale . Most of the weight given to last season but only a little more than 2014 and 2014 a little more than 2013. Now 2013 and 2014 are cited as his "inconsistent" years so overall they are weighted more than just his 1 great year. Then they project his value in bWAR for the coming years and what those years would be worth money wise. For someone who is supposedly very inconsistent they said for the 1st 3 years he's projected to be worth $84M , another $23.3 M in the 4th year and $20.3M in a fifth year. In order to get those highly productive 1st 3 years it's been standard practice to pay for a few years where he declines . You just have to hope it isn't a precipitous decline.

 

http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/01/05/whats-he-...des-free-agency

That is the only "potential" downside to signing Yoenis for five years, that he "might" not be as productive towards the end of the contract. Meanwhile, for the next two to three years, the window in which we'd like to compete, you get a 30 HR, 100 RBI guy in the middle of your lineup and a substantial improvement in the outfield defense. THAT'S WHAT WE NEED! And we don't have to give up any prospects or talent on the roster, nor sacrifice a draft pick to get him. He is the best option to fill one of our gaping holes in the outfield. If it means tacking on those two last years, then just do it, for godssake. He "might" just continue to be productive in those years as well, given he'll only be 33/34. Who knows! Let's worry about that in '19 and '20.

 

For now, let's follow through with what I thought was the stated mandate which is to "maximize" the window of opportunity this team has right now to win in these next few years. Yoenis Cespedes provides us the best chance to do so among our existing options.

[lasttriptotulsa]

Avi was historically terrible last year and the historical evidence shows very long odds that he turns into a productive player.

http://www.thecatbirdseatblog.com/blog/201...fe8ddp13er5rjrq

 

Historically terrible is a bit of a stretch. I put no stock into the article you linked. Every player is different. Just because most have failed that had a similar number of ABs as Avi means nothing. It took an arbitrary number of ABs and an arbitrary age and tried to show a correlation. What it did not do is show guys who were so poor in the minors that they didn't become MLB regulars until later on. Many of these type of guys have had success. Namely one of the biggest stars in the game right now in Jose Bautista. He did not even become a 1 fWAR player until his age 28 season. Or a guy like Scott Podsednik who didn't become a regular until his age 27 season and then went on to have a handful of productive years and became a sort of cult hero around here.

 

Avi also was looking like he was on the right track until his injury in 2014. In his Sox career until the injury he had a .298/.332/.450 slash with rate stats of 21 HRs, 12 2Bs, 6 3Bs and 69 RBI per 162 games with an acceptable 22% K rate. I think all of us would take that out of Avi in a heartbeat this year. His 4% BB rate left something to be desired but other than that he was on the right track as a 22 year old. Did the injury hamper his development? Maybe. Does he still have time to turn it around? Absolutely. I am not ready to give up on him yet as he has the tools.

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

That is the only "potential" downside to signing Yoenis for five years, that he "might" not be as productive towards the end of the contract. Meanwhile, for the next two to three years, the window in which we'd like to compete, you get a 30 HR, 100 RBI guy in the middle of your lineup and a substantial improvement in the outfield defense. THAT'S WHAT WE NEED! And we don't have to give up any prospects or talent on the roster, nor sacrifice a draft pick to get him. He is the best option to fill one of our gaping holes in the outfield. If it means tacking on those two last years, then just do it, for godssake. He "might" just continue to be productive in those years as well, given he'll only be 33/34. Who knows! Let's worry about that in '19 and '20.

 

For now, let's follow through with what I thought was the stated mandate which is to "maximize" the window of opportunity this team has right now to win in these next few years. Yoenis Cespedes provides us the best chance to do so among our existing options.

Although I agree with you, to paraphrase Yogi Berra, if someone doesn't want to come, how you gonna stop him?

[southsider2k5]

That is the only "potential" downside to signing Yoenis for five years, that he "might" not be as productive towards the end of the contract. Meanwhile, for the next two to three years, the window in which we'd like to compete, you get a 30 HR, 100 RBI guy in the middle of your lineup and a substantial improvement in the outfield defense. THAT'S WHAT WE NEED! And we don't have to give up any prospects or talent on the roster, nor sacrifice a draft pick to get him. He is the best option to fill one of our gaping holes in the outfield. If it means tacking on those two last years, then just do it, for godssake. He "might" just continue to be productive in those years as well, given he'll only be 33/34. Who knows! Let's worry about that in '19 and '20.

 

For now, let's follow through with what I thought was the stated mandate which is to "maximize" the window of opportunity this team has right now to win in these next few years. Yoenis Cespedes provides us the best chance to do so among our existing options.

 

Again, a gross oversimplification of things. I wouldn't think that Hahn would need to add the obvious caveat of "without destroying the future" to the end of that, but apparently for some he does. If it was just about today, guys like Anderson and Fulmer would have already been dealt for upgrades, and they would have already signed a FA that requires draft pick compensation.

 

2019 and 2020 might not matter for you, but in a market where fan response is about as warm as Lake Michigan, mistakes get amplified. Having $20+ million in dead payroll would be a huge blow to the ballclub in those years that the fans won't tolerate. I can already see the handwringing going on full of hindsight and simplification.

[Dick Allen]

Historically terrible is a bit of a stretch. I put no stock into the article you linked. Every player is different. Just because most have failed that had a similar number of ABs as Avi means nothing. It took an arbitrary number of ABs and an arbitrary age and tried to show a correlation. What it did not do is show guys who were so poor in the minors that they didn't become MLB regulars until later on. Many of these type of guys have had success. Namely one of the biggest stars in the game right now in Jose Bautista. He did not even become a 1 fWAR player until his age 28 season. Or a guy like Scott Podsednik who didn't become a regular until his age 27 season and then went on to have a handful of productive years and became a sort of cult hero around here.

 

Avi also was looking like he was on the right track until his injury in 2014. In his Sox career until the injury he had a .298/.332/.450 slash with rate stats of 21 HRs, 12 2Bs, 6 3Bs and 69 RBI per 162 games with an acceptable 22% K rate. I think all of us would take that out of Avi in a heartbeat this year. His 4% BB rate left something to be desired but other than that he was on the right track as a 22 year old. Did the injury hamper his development? Maybe. Does he still have time to turn it around? Absolutely. I am not ready to give up on him yet as he has the tools.

 

Avi has talent and still is very young. That said, if they just expect experience to solve his problems, that isn't going to work either. He needs some drastic change.

[fathom]

Again, a gross oversimplification of things. I wouldn't think that Hahn would need to add the obvious caveat of "without destroying the future" to the end of that, but apparently for some he does. If it was just about today, guys like Anderson and Fulmer would have already been dealt for upgrades, and they would have already signed a FA that requires draft pick compensation.

 

2019 and 2020 might not matter for you, but in a market where fan response is about as warm as Lake Michigan, mistakes get amplified. Having $20+ million in dead payroll would be a huge blow to the ballclub in those years that the fans won't tolerate. I can already see the handwringing going on full of hindsight and simplification.

 

And if Cespedes turns into a bust, it just seems like he might not be the best clubhouse contributor.

[Vance Law]

Offer Cespedes 4 years with an opt out after 2. Done.

[southsider2k5]

Offer Cespedes 4 years with an opt out after 2. Done.

 

Unless the annual salary is signifcantly more than Washington, their offer would be better at 5 years for more total money.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Jeez. Last offsesason it was Eminor and I vs. You, chitownsportsfan and Rock Raines on Avi. Then I would go to war with Dick Allen saying Gordon Beckham sucks too. People are all like "I just want the offseason to be over" but the alternative isn't great, hah.

I was a big Avi supporter and it's completely fizzled. s*** happens I guess. I'm just glad the trade has helped us acquire vets at least. As for alternatives, ya it's not great.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Why isn't this over yet??!!

[QuickJones81]

Why isn't this over yet??!!

 

For the Sox, and this board, it effectively is.

[peavy44]

Why isn't this over yet??!!

 

 

Cause cespedes is greedy money hungry freak.

[SoxSteve]

Then it's just backlash speculative bulls*** not based on anything concrete against a guy who many are envious. Yes it's one of many things to be investigated. But when it get's more attention than is warranted and is cited as if its a fact it's irresponsible .

 

There's one main reason that the Sox won't go longer term and it's that unless you are the Yankees Dodgers Red Sox it is fiscally irresponsible to hand out longer term contracts that pay for declining years. That has been apparent for years that those deals invariably becomes albatrosses to teams that don't have deep pockets.

 

Unfortunately those contracts have been standard practice in MLB for years but the Sox still play the game hoping against hope and getting all our hopes up by playing the game and coming up short most of the time. When they do play the game and actually sign a FA they end up losing because the 2nd tier guys are almost always ore risky than the 1st tier guys Less financially volatile but more volatile as far as being productive on the field.

 

In the last 2 years the Sox have given up 2 draft choices for free agents and possible a third if Desmond becomes a reality. Also 4 minor leaguers last year and 5 this year . Add up all that and it's 11 players from the minors and possibly 12 . Everyone says oh they will never be impact players . Yet Semien is already in the top 10 MLB SS according to MLB network analysis . Who knows who else may become valuable . Shark Lawrie and Frazier , that's 5 years total on the MLB field for 9 minor leaguers and 2 draft choices.

 

I thought recently Hahn spoke of sustained success . How are they going to do that if they have to keep restocking the farm and getting outbid for FA difference makers ? Dumpster diving is pure luck. Relying on the few high end minor leaguers is highly speculative that they will make it. The only way to win the minor league game is have a deep system where more players can surprise you with unexpected development to offset those who disappoint you. The system is even less deep than it was now. In 2 years we start all over again because Melky, Lawrie Frazier are gone. Or we don't compete in those 2 years and trade off pieces. Either way it's starting over.

 

Hahn has been a colossal failure . Getting Abreu and signing Sale Eaton Quintana to great deals doesn' t come close to all the failed money poured into unproductive FA's and prospects traded off. Those are a lot of players and years of control . So far it's his legacy that being below .500 or investing enough to be .500 and having no farm system is about what to expect.

Good points but disagree with a few things. First of all the players we gave up for Shark didn't fit the Sox good at all. Semien is a nice player but his defense will NEVER be good enough for short IMO. The problem with the Sox is we have very good pitching with very bad defense. If your going to be a good pitching team and that seems the direction we are going in with a Sale, Q, Rodon, Fullmer Johnson rotation i think it defeats the purpose to have a Semien at short. I would rather sacrifice hitting for fielding at certain positions when your pitching is good. That's why a Anderson -Lawrie combo doesn't excite me. I'd much rather have a great hitting outfield with a great DH hitting and sacrifice some of that with defense on your infield. And i don't consider Phegley and Bassitt prime pieces to the White Sox future. Obviously the trade didn't work out with Shark being horsehit but i don't think we mortgaged any of our future with that deal. That being said we have a disjointed team right now with the below average defense in both the outfield and infield with above average pitching. How we solve that is anyone's guess.

Edited January 22, 2016 by SoxSteve

[ptatc]

Samardzija blew up Frazier and Lawrie are only 2 years . Shark was 1 year. Hahn didn't make those trades and FA signings thinking he wouldn't compete. He made them to compete in the short term . If he was playing the long term game and I can admit he still might be then where's the minor league depth ? You like his philosophy. I don't even see a philosophy. We aren't satisfied with the short term results because he's been playing the short term game and losing badly mainly because he can't finish what he started and what he started ends quickly with those traded for gone in 1 or 2 years.

Compete, yes. Give everything away for an "all-in," no.

 

The philosophy is to continue to improve the team while not sacrificing the future. none of the prospects traded away were possible impact players. He kept the really good ones and traded away "pieces." They may be MLB players but nothing of consequence. In return, he received proven MLB players which will help the team. Nothing he did will hurt the future and will help in the present. Minor league depth is not as important as impact prospects and proven MLB talent.

Granted it's a risk just like signing FA to long term deals. However, with the financial constraints placed upon him, he cannot afford to have deadweight contracts on the books for an extended period of time. That's why signing FA to the longterm deals isn't a good play here.

[Lillian]

Offer Cespedes 4 years with an opt out after 2. Done.

 

That is what I've been advocating, except I would go 5 years, heavily front loaded.

What numbers would you suggest? Do you think that the 1ST two years at $25 million, and the last 3 years at $20 million would

be enough to entice him? That's only $5 million more than the 5 year, $105 million, rumored to be on the table from the Nationals.

I think it all depends upon how that offer is structured. If it's the same annual salary every year, with no opt out, then the deal I'm advocating could be enticing.

Edited January 22, 2016 by Lillian

[southsideirish71]

Good points but disagree with a few things. First of all the players we gave up for Shark didn't fit the Sox good at all. Semien is a nice player but his defense will NEVER be good enough for short IMO. The problem with the Sox is we have very good pitching with very bad defense. If your going to be a good pitching team and that seems the direction we are going in with a Sale, Q, Rodon, Fullmer Johnson rotation i think it defeats the purpose to have a Semien at short. I would rather sacrifice hitting for fielding at certain positions when your pitching is good. That's why a Anderson -Lawrie combo doesn't excite me. I'd much rather have a great hitting outfield with a great DH hitting and sacrifice some of that with defense on your infield. And i don't consider Phegley and Bassitt prime pieces to the White Sox future. Obviously the trade didn't work out with Shark being horsehit but i don't think we mortgaged any of our future with that deal. That being said we have a disjointed team right now with the below average defense in both the outfield and infield with above average pitching. How we solve that is anyone's guess.

 

Well the A's disagree with you.

 

The A's are working with Ron Washington on Semiens D.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Well the A's disagree with you.

 

The A's are working with Ron Washington on Semiens D.

 

If that same article had some from Chicago media, we'd be talking about how much fluff it was, and mocking it.

[CB2.0]

That is what I've been advocating, except I would go 5 years, heavily front loaded.

What numbers would you suggest? Do you think that the 1ST two years at $25 million, and the last 3 years at $20 million would

be enough to entice him? That's only $5 million more than the 5 year, $105 million, rumored to be on the table from the Nationals.

I think it all depends upon how that offer is structured. If it's the same annual salary every year, with no opt out, then the deal I'm advocating could be enticing.

 

I don't think the Sox should do that. Unless....there is a club option after year 2 and a really low buyout. Then they can escape the last $60M when Cespedes isn't motivated to perform/tanks.

 

Besides, there's only 3 OFers in baseball that are worth $25M/yr. and 2 (of the 3) aren't being paid anywhere near that.