Cespedes Re-signs with the Mets

[BlackSox13]

Here we go...

 

Says it sounds like it's 3yrs or nothing instead of a 5 year opt out after 3 for the White Sox. I don't buy this info at all.

 

Hasn't said anything informative at all which is what we all thought.

I can believe the Sox not willing to go more than three years on Gordon due to his age but I think it's posturing with regards to Cespedes.

 

Could be as simple as Cespedes has come down to seeking five years, the Sox offer three and in the end they meet in the middle on a four year deal. Maybe offer Cespedes three years with two additional years of mutual options?

[Frank_Thomas]

I can believe the Sox not willing to go more than three years on Gordon due to his age but I think it's posturing with regards to Cespedes.

 

Could be as simple as Cespedes has come down to seeking five years, the Sox offer three and in the end they meet in the middle on a four year deal. Maybe offer Cespedes three years with two additional years of mutual options?

 

It was stated that none of the three would want to do this because then the opt out kicks in for 2018 and that FA class is loaded. Which kinda of makes it stupid for us to offer 3 years knowing that these guys will be old and entering a crowded market and what could be arguably the best FA class in the history of the MLB. Personally I think four years gets it done with Gordon or Cespedes but I don't think JR is comfortable with that. My confidence level of us landing one of these guys is starting to decrease. I think if we are firm on three years it allows another team to jump in to steal one of these guys and shake the market up.

Edited January 2, 2016 by Frank_Thomas35

[Saufley]

No really they asked like three questions and moved to the Cubs

 

Not surprising. That station has become irrelevant, to me at least.

 

[Saufley]

Nightengale says:

 

$20 to $22 Million per year is the range he forsees for these guys.

Short term deal should pay more, as the player is not requiring the longer term guarantee.

Sox "3 yr. deal" offer looks very firm.

1 or 2 years is more attractive to players, as the 3RD year will see a strong F.A. market again.

 

His opinion on New contracts with opt outs: He thinks that it totally favors the players, not the teams. Team stuck if guy performs poorly, and if he does well, he leaves.

Also gives players a chance to see how he likes playing for that particular organization and in that city.

 

IMO, he doesn't get it. He never mentioned the front office's motivation, nor did he discuss how such deals can keep a player motivated.

He provided less insight and worthwhile analysis than we fans are offering, on this forum. You guys are great, and such interviews only reinforce the fact.

Thanks for all the terrific analysis.

 

So, do we believe anything Nightengale says?? Just wondering if there is anyone else out there we can believe in at this point?

Edited January 2, 2016 by Saufley

[Frank_Thomas]

Not surprising. That station has become irrelevant, to me at least.

 

It would have been nice if they could have at least asked what Nightengale puts the sox chances of signing one of the big three at three years...... I would say maybe 55%-65%?

[Frank_Thomas]

So, do we believe anything Nightengale says?? Just wondering if there is anyone else out there we can believe in?

 

As far as I have seen the last 3-4 years Nightengale is usually pretty accurate when it comes to reporting on the Sox. I think he gets fed information. Now most of the time I'm sure he gets solid inside info, however it is possible the FO is using him in the negotiation by leaking the three year deal to him. But from listening to the interview Bob seemed to think it was a hard 3 year deal or nothing. Or less of course....

Edited January 2, 2016 by Frank_Thomas35

[Dick Allen]

Nightengale says:

 

$20 to $22 Million per year is the range he forsees for these guys.

Short term deal should pay more, as the player is not requiring the longer term guarantee.

Sox "3 yr. deal" offer looks very firm.

1 or 2 years is more attractive to players, as the 3RD year will see a strong F.A. market again.

 

His opinion on New contracts with opt outs: He thinks that it totally favors the players, not the teams. Team stuck if guy performs poorly, and if he does well, he leaves.

Also gives players a chance to see how he likes playing for that particular organization and in that city.

 

IMO, he doesn't get it. He never mentioned the front office's motivation, nor did he discuss how such deals can keep a player motivated.

He provided less insight and worthwhile analysis than we fans are offering, on this forum.

The opt out has always been good for players. He isn't wrong. But for a team willing to reallocate resources and let the player opting out walk, it would have worked out splendidly for several teams.

[Lillian]

Given my new appreciation for the "opt out" contract; Why not offer Cespedes the 6 years, which he is seeking, with an opt out, any year after 2 years?

Give him $25 Million per year for 2 years, then a declining scale, something like this:

3RD year $20 Million

4TH year $15 Million

5TH year $10 Million

6TH year $10 Million

 

That is a total of $105 Million for 6 years, with a huge motivation for him to leave, if his first 2 years are outstanding.

To me, that is a deal that is fair for both sides, and should be attractive to the Sox' ownership, putting aside Caulfield's concern over going over budget, and possibly

in the "red" in 2016.

[Dick Allen]

That's what Bob was saying. He would not expect any of the three to say sign a 5 year deal with an opt out after three. He said the reason these guys may decide to sign a short term deal is because they can renter the market either next year or in two years and capitalize on a weak FA class , that is if they believe in themselves enough to sign short termZ

The thing with an opt out is you don't have to opt out. I don't know why they would be opposed to signing for 5 years with an opt out after 3 even if they are scared of the big free agent class. If it doesn't look like you will get paid, you still have 2 years left on the contract.

 

Besides, if they are afraid of the guys in 2018, they must not be too confident their performance would make a team want to pay them.

[Chicago White Sox]

Probably right but FWIW Bob said Cespedes might be the most incline to accept a short term deal with Upton being the least likely. Who knows I really just want the roller coaster to stop.

Three years wouldn't make sense for Cespedes, given the crazy free agent class that year (including some serious OF free agents). If he's willing to gamble on himself, a 1 year deal makes the most sense. Otherwise, he should be pushing hard for a 5 year deal. If he reverts back to a 3 WAR type season next year, he'll end up losing out on a lot of money.

 

Also, it's quite fascinating if the Sox really won't go beyond a 3 year deal. Right now, our only contractual obligations for 2019 are Sale, Quintana, Abreu, Eaton, & Jones and that's assuming we exercise their options. Combined they make $49M, although that will probably go up a bit assuming Abreu elects free agency. Obviously there would be some arb guys too, but overall we'd be in great shape to be serious players in the crazy 2019 free agent class. With our TV expiring right around that time, I wouldn't be surprised if that indeed is their big plan in hopes of driving up the value of a new contact.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Nightingale gets fed info so why would he talk about their motivation?

[soxfan85]

If this whole 3-year firm offer is true, the White Sox just look ridiculous at this point, especially in regards to Cespedes. If this is the case, and they are ignorant enough to announce it to the world, they should have never gotten involved anyway. And especially shouldn't have been so public with their desire to sign one of the big 3. Why would any FA ever want to sign here? It is really embarrassing.

 

[OmarComing25]

Not saying it won't still be loaded and much better than the 2016 and 2017 FA classes, but I think everyone is overrating how good the 2018 FA class will be. A few years ago Austin Jackson was a 4-5 WAR player, Asdrubal Cabrera and David Freese were All-Stars, and Latos and Fister were 4 WAR pitchers, and now their value has significantly diminished compared to then. A similar drop-off will happen to several of these guys, whether by simple regression in performance or injury or both. Guys who would have been free agents this year like McCutchen, Bumgarner, Stanton, Posey, Gonzalez and Gardner signed extensions in that window. And you know at least 1 or 2 guys will completely fall off the map like Matt Kemp did compared to 2011-2012.

Edited January 2, 2016 by OmarComing25

[Saufley]

Given my new appreciation for the "opt out" contract; Why not offer Cespedes the 6 years, which he is seeking, with an opt out, any year after 2 years?

Give him $25 Million per year for 2 years, then a declining scale, something like this:

3RD year $20 Million

4TH year $15 Million

5TH year $10 Million

6TH year $10 Million

 

That is a total of $105 Million for 6 years, with a huge motivation for him to leave, if his first 2 years are outstanding.

To me, that is a deal that is fair for both sides, and should be attractive to the Sox' ownership, putting aside Caulfield's concern over going over budget, and possibly

in the "red" in 2016.

 

Nice thought IMO, as those first two years would fit in nicely and be years two & three with our 3 year plan. But what do I know?

 

[BlackSox13]

It was stated that none of the three would want to do this because then the opt out kicks in for 2018 and that FA class is loaded. Which kinda of makes it stupid for us to offer 3 years knowing that these guys will be old and entering a crowded market and what could be arguably the best FA class in the history of the MLB. Personally I think four years gets it done with Gordon or Cespedes but I don't think JR is comfortable with that. My confidence level of us landing one of these guys is starting to decrease. I think if we are firm on three years it allows another team to jump in to steal one of these guys and shake the market up.

With regards to Cespedes, I'm talking mutual options and not opt-out. Something similar to the Sale and Quintana- contracts that have two years of mutual options at the end of the guaranteed contract. I agree that four years gets it done with Cespedes and I think the Sox are actually willing to go four years. It's just posturing by the Sox and part of the negotiating process. Garfien did say that up to this point no team has offered more than three years and I believe what he says in this particular case. In the end some team will offer four years, possibly five if enough teams are genuinely interested in Cespedes.

 

As for Gordon. IMHO, the Sox would be stupid to go more than three years and I think the Sox are doing the right thing by not offering more.

 

There's just too many outfield options available for the Sox to give it up like a desperate prom date. I have no doubt the Sox will address the outfield need although it may end up not being what fans have their sights set on. I remain open minded and willing to sit back and enjoy the off season ride.

[Frank_Thomas]

Given my new appreciation for the "opt out" contract; Why not offer Cespedes the 6 years, which he is seeking, with an opt out, any year after 2 years?

Give him $25 Million per year for 2 years, then a declining scale, something like this:

3RD year $20 Million

4TH year $15 Million

5TH year $10 Million

6TH year $10 Million

 

That is a total of $105 Million for 6 years, with a huge motivation for him to leave, if his first 2 years are outstanding.

To me, that is a deal that is fair for both sides, and should be attractive to the Sox' ownership, putting aside Caulfield's concern over going over budget, and possibly

in the "red" in 2016.

 

No offense by why would any one of the three sign a deal that pays them $15 and $10 million in the last three years? Especially with the escalating AAVs if anything the back end of the contract would go up.

 

One thing we could see the sox do is get creative by doing deffered payments, like we did with Paulie. And the D backs did with Grienke.

[Saufley]

If this whole 3-year firm offer is true, the White Sox just look ridiculous at this point, especially in regards to Cespedes. If this is the case, and they are ignorant enough to announce it to the world, they should have never gotten involved anyway. And especially shouldn't have been so public with their desire to sign one of the big 3. Why would any FA ever want to sign here? It is really embarrassing.

 

This is exactly how I felt yesterday BUT, I am really wanting the Sox to get one of the three so I will remain optimistic until the situation plays out.

 

[ptatc]

The thing with an opt out is you don't have to opt out. I don't know why they would be opposed to signing for 5 years with an opt out after 3 even if they are scared of the big free agent class. If it doesn't look like you will get paid, you still have 2 years left on the contract.

 

Besides, if they are afraid of the guys in 2018, they must not be too confident their performance would make a team want to pay them.

The problem with scenario is that you end up with a scottie pippen situation where he got good money early but whines about "being disrespected" with being paid like a backup at the end of the deal. Its a no win for the team.

Edited January 2, 2016 by ptatc

[Lillian]

Of course it does, it's hard to front-load a contract if you're already struggling to fit that signing into your budget. Theoreticallly sound ideas like the one you're proposing don't always equal practical ideas.

 

Perhaps you misunderstood what I wrote. I did not assert that budget constraints have no relevancy to any particular team's situation regarding the kind of opt out

contract, in this discussion. Rather, I am asserting that, putting the issue of specific budget restraints aside, the concept is compelling. What do you think of the general concept?

[Frank_Thomas]

With regards to Cespedes, I'm talking mutual options and not opt-out. Something similar to the Sale and Quintana- contracts that have two years of mutual options at the end of the guaranteed contract. I agree that four years gets it done with Cespedes and I think the Sox are actually willing to go four years. It's just posturing by the Sox and part of the negotiating process. Garfien did say that up to this point no team has offered more than three years and I believe what he says in this particular case. In the end some team will offer four years, possibly five if enough teams are genuinely interested in Cespedes.

 

As for Gordon. IMHO, the Sox would be stupid to go more than three years and I think the Sox are doing the right thing by not offering more.

 

There's just too many outfield options available for the Sox to give it up like a desperate prom date. I have no doubt the Sox will address the outfield need although it may end up not being what fans have their sights set on. I remain open minded and willing to sit back and enjoy the off season ride.

 

Good post I agree with a lot of what you are saying. Especially about Gordon, I don't really want him on much more than a three year deal. But one thing I differ on is the fallback OFs available. I want one of the big three or none. No one else really makes me excited. I would like Fowler but he costs a pick. I would be okay with Span but who knows how he bounces back after injury and he's a Boras guy. Finally I really don't want to trade any more prospects to acquire someone from CoL.

 

One player I'd be more than happy to trade for and I have said so for a year is Puig. Look at how the Yankees stole Chapman for basically nada. If we could get him relatively cheap id be happy. But in the end one of the big three is the most logical route to getting better quickly

[soxfan85]

This is exactly how I felt yesterday BUT, I am really wanting the Sox to get one of the three so I will remain optimistic until the situation plays out.

 

I am trying to be as optimistic as I can This whole process is not over yet. However, I just get fed up with their whole "Holier than thou" attitude. They act like they are kings of the baseball world with this type of attitude, and that they can get anybody they want on their terms. However, what have we proven? We hardly ever win anything, and the biggest contract we have ever given out was Abreu at $68M. The behavior of the FO is just bizarre.

 

[Lillian]

The problem with scenario is that you end up with a scottie pippen situation where he got good money early but whines about "being disrespected" with being paid like a backup at the end of the deal. Its a no win for the team.

 

With the opt out privilege, the player simply leaves. Doesn't that mitigate, to some degree, the Pippen type circumstance?

[Dick Allen]

Not saying it won't still be loaded and much better than the 2016 and 2017 FA classes, but I think everyone is overrating how good the 2018 FA class will be. A few years ago Austin Jackson was a 4-5 WAR player, Asdrubal Cabrera and David Freese were All-Stars, and Latos and Fister were 4 WAR pitchers, and now their value has significantly diminished compared to then. A similar drop-off will happen to several of these guys, whether by simple regression in performance or injury or both. Guys who would have been free agents this year like McCutchen, Bumgarner, Stanton, Posey, Gonzalez and Gardner signed extensions in that window. And you know at least 1 or 2 guys will completely fall off the map like Matt Kemp did compared to 2011-2012.

I agree with you. In the end, it still will probably be pretty good, but it won't be as good as it looks now, and these guys won't be competing with the Harpers anyway.

Edited January 2, 2016 by Dick Allen

[ptatc]

With the opt out privilege, the player simply leaves. Doesn't that mitigate, to some degree, the Pippen type circumstance?

It would if he left. In DA scenario he stays due to the really good FA class of 2018.

 

The opt clause only works for the team if the player is playing well, which really doesn't work for the team because if he is playing well the team wouldn't ming paying him. I really don't see how that works for the team.

[Dick Allen]

The problem with scenario is that you end up with a scottie pippen situation where he got good money early but whines about "being disrespected" with being paid like a backup at the end of the deal. Its a no win for the team.

Pipped whined but he performed. The thing was, even if they wanted to, at least at that time it was against the rules of the NBA to renegotiate contracts. And they did him a solid with a sign and trade to Houston.

 

It is funny, for all the whining Pippen did, and the demanding to be traded, now he is part of the organization again. And he came back for peanuts at the end of his career to play for a non contender. The Pippen/Bulls relationship is pretty bizarre.

 

I