Cespedes Re-signs with the Mets

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Today ain't over yet.

I predicted that overpay because we're not a great team and he wants paid.

[BaconOnAStick]

Apparently I need to repeat this.

Fowler and Upton are complementary, Cespedes is transformative. Just ask the Mets or the A's.

[LDF]

I predicted that overpay because we're not a great team and he wants paid.

 

they will need to do something like that, pretty much as the hawks did with hossa signing. so as i have mention in the past, instead of going 6 yrs why not go something like a shorter yr.... with more money, esp in the front side of the contract and have an option yr or 2....

 

now in my fanciful idea, gordon may not fit that mode, but maybe upton and even cespedes.

 

2 yrs, will help the most at this point and help build up some credibility as a team on the brink of doing something or assembling a team of players who can help make the playoff.

[BlackSox13]

At this point I'm not sure what they are going to do. Need to do more with the acquisitions of Frazier and Lawrie, though!! What will JR let RH do??

Not sure how high JR is willing to go, if he is. He has shown in the past he is willing to raise the budget but I'm not willing to take for granted that he will do it this time around. I just don't want to get my hopes up is all. I think it's possible JR bumps back to around 130M range but 140-150M, I doubt it which is why I've had low expectations with the SOX signing one of the big three and while I had some hope they would, I didn't expect it either.

 

I still think there are outfielders available through trades that would not cost the Sox Fulmer or Anderson. Those outfielders won't be the caliper of Cespedes or Upton but still upgrades over Avi. The market is flooded with outfielders so I do feel pretty good about the Sox making some kind of an upgrade.

[BlackSox13]

Come on. That's really the fun of this board. It's like watching NASCAR or preschool dance recitals. They are mostly boring but you just wait for the crashes.

 

Good one! At least Sox fans know how to make right turns so we are a step above NASCAR. Right?

Edited January 7, 2016 by BlackSox13

[Dick Allen]

Fowler and Upton are complementary, Cespedes is transformative. Just ask the Mets or the A's.

Upton and Cespedes have about double the WAR/game rate than Fowler for their careers.

[Lillian]

How would signing Fowler to a 3 year $42 Million deal, and trading for Ethier look?

 

Line up vs RHP:

Projected OBP

CF Eaton .355

LF Fowler .360

1B Abreu .360

RF Ethier .365 At his age, he could sit against a few lefties, just to rest him

3B Frazier .310

DH Melky .335

2B Lawrie .315

C A. Avila .340 His career OBP is very good vs RHP & he platoons with Navarro

SS Saladino ?

 

@ $14 Million per year for Fowler

& $17.5 and 18 Million per year for the next 2 years for Ethier

 

And what to do about La Roche?

Bench player, back up first baseman, LH pinch hitter, or whatever.

 

Rest of the bench: Shuck, Navarro, L. Garcia

Avi and Sanchez to Charlotte

 

Could the Sox really add $32Million per year in salaries, for the next 2 years?

What would LA want for Ethier? Or, could they pay part of his contract in exchange for a piece the Sox could afford to give up?

 

I'm obviously bored, and impatient, like everyone else here.

 

[SoCalSox]

I can't imagine Fowler getting less than Melky at this point... Maybe I'm wrong.

[BlackSox13]

How would signing Fowler to a 3 year $42 Million deal, and trading for Ethier look?

 

Line up vs RHP:

Projected OBP

CF Eaton .355

LF Fowler .360

1B Abreu .360

RF Ethier .365 At his age, he could sit against a few lefties, just to rest him

3B Frazier .310

DH Melky .335

2B Lawrie .315

C A. Avila .340 His career OBP is very good vs RHP & he platoons with Navarro

SS Saladino ?

 

@ $14 Million per year for Fowler

& $17.5 and 18 Million per year for the next 2 years for Ethier

 

And what to do about La Roche?

Bench player, back up first baseman, LH pinch hitter, or whatever.

 

Rest of the bench: Shuck, Navarro, L. Garcia

Avi and Sanchez to Charlotte

 

Could the Sox really add $32Million per year in salaries, for the next 2 years?

What would LA want for Ethier? Or, could they pay part of his contract in exchange for a piece the Sox could afford to give up?

 

I'm obviously bored, and impatient, like everyone else here.

The question really is, would JR add 32M to a payroll already sitting at 119M?

 

I think it's more reasonable to think the Sox look at outfielders like Markakis, Gardner, Gomez types that won't add a ton in salary or cost a ton in prospects. I like the Ethier idea but his salary would bump the Sox up to around 137M, that might be stretching it but still possible. Not sure what Ethier would cost or if the Sox and Dodgers match up in a trade.

[LDF]

Not sure how high JR is willing to go, if he is. He has shown in the past he is willing to raise the budget but I'm not willing to take for granted that he will do it this time around. I just don't want to get my hopes up is all. I think it's possible JR bumps back to around 130M range but 140-150M, I doubt it which is why I've had low expectations with the SOX signing one of the big three and while I had some hope they would, I didn't expect it either.

 

I still think there are outfielders available through trades that would not cost the Sox Fulmer or Anderson. Those outfielders won't be the caliper of Cespedes or Upton but still upgrades over Avi. The market is flooded with outfielders so I do feel pretty good about the Sox making some kind of an upgrade.

 

i really hate to be so pessimistic, but i do hope the owners will pony up for this yr. i really don't see any help in next yr fa's list, unless a team will need a nice sp.

 

there are a nice trade route to look for.... but that price has now been establish from past trades in the last several weeks, so unless the rtn is a nice one, trading one of the sox's top 4-8 prospects is a cost that may need to be look at.

[Real]

Idk I just don't see the sox spending the kind of money required to land upton or cespedes hence the reason they were shooting for gordon

 

my prediction is they grab one of the other OFs for much less money

 

 

[JRL]

Whats with this idea on this board that Cespedes is somehow the player he was in 2015, and somehow better than Upton, when 2015 was clearly an outlier for Cespedes?? Hasn't anyone ever heard of the refrain "don't pay for a career year"?!?!? In 2013 and 2014 respectively Cespedes had OPS of 737 and 751. That's really pedestrian. Also, Cespedes is somehow all of a sudden "an extra 30 HRs, at least" for the Sox?!?!? Just look at the numbers... 23, 26, 22, 35. Is it really terribly difficult to see where the outlier is???

[LDF]

Whats with this idea on this board that Cespedes is somehow the player he was in 2015, and somehow better than Upton, when 2015 was clearly an outlier for Cespedes?? Hasn't anyone ever heard of the refrain "don't pay for a career year"?!?!? In 2013 and 2014 respectively Cespedes had OPS of 737 and 751. That's really pedestrian. Also, Cespedes is somehow all of a sudden "an extra 30 HRs, at least" for the Sox?!?!? Just look at the numbers... 23, 26, 22, 35. Is it really terribly difficult to see where the outlier is???

 

nice post,

 

but who can say he will not put up those numbers up???? he has improve every yr he has played.

 

just asking.

[nitetrain8601]

He's improved every year, and he would be playing in a HR hitter ballpark.

[Whisox05]

Whats with this idea on this board that Cespedes is somehow the player he was in 2015, and somehow better than Upton, when 2015 was clearly an outlier for Cespedes?? Hasn't anyone ever heard of the refrain "don't pay for a career year"?!?!? In 2013 and 2014 respectively Cespedes had OPS of 737 and 751. That's really pedestrian. Also, Cespedes is somehow all of a sudden "an extra 30 HRs, at least" for the Sox?!?!? Just look at the numbers... 23, 26, 22, 35. Is it really terribly difficult to see where the outlier is???

 

Because he's played alot his home games in parks that aren't power friendly. Since Sox play in a more power-friendly he should be able to hit more homeruns or maintain a higher amount

Edited January 7, 2016 by WhiteSoxLifer

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Cespedes is the best OF on the market now. Has familiarity within the AL and AL Central. Good defensively. Slap him in the middle of this lineup and color me tickled.

[BlackSox13]

i really hate to be so pessimistic, but i do hope the owners will pony up for this yr. i really don't see any help in next yr fa's list, unless a team will need a nice sp.

 

there are a nice trade route to look for.... but that price has now been establish from past trades in the last several weeks, so unless the rtn is a nice one, trading one of the sox's top 4-8 prospects is a cost that may need to be look at.

It depends really. If we're talking about trading for the likes of Inciarte or Tucker, then yes the price is going to be steep. Now if we're talking about Markakis', Gardner or Gomez I think the Sox can get by without giving up Anderson or Fulmer. I would love to see the Sox get after Inciarte or Tucker, even if it cost any prospect not named Fulmer or Anderson but I seriously doubt Inciarte or Tucker could be had without including one of Fulmer/Anderson.

 

I know this won't be a popular suggestion but if all else fails, I would see what Atlanta would want for Markakis. I think that's the kind of player were going to end up with. He'd cost 11M per year over the next three years, LHB, hits for AVE, OBP, low K-rate, upgrade in RF and would slot nicely at #2 in the lineup. This would put Melky in the middle of the order where he seems to hit better anyway and move LaRoche/Avi further down where they belong.

 

Eaton

Markakis

Abreu

Frazier

Melky

Lawrie

LaRoche/Avi

Navarro/Avila

Saladino

 

Don't get me wrong, there are certainly other outfielders I would rather have but I think the Sox are looking for a player that isn't too costly in terms of money or prospects. That's if they don't sign a free agent outfielder, which I still think there is some hope for.

Edited January 7, 2016 by BlackSox13

[ChiSoxFanMike]

I will seriously cry tears of joy if the Sox can sign him.

[JRL]

nice post,

 

but who can say he will not put up those numbers up???? he has improve every yr he has played.

 

just asking.

 

Nobody can say what anyone will do with absolute certainty. Anything is possible. It's possible that Cespedes will break Barry Bonds' HR record next year. We can only say what likely based on the numbers we have in front of us. And, it is very unlikely Cespedes is not the player he was in 2015.

 

1. He has not improved every year he has played. He has played 4 years. His best year was clearly far and away last year (year 4). Year 1 was clearly his next best. Years 2 and 3 were the two worst years, both pretty similar though year 3 might have been slightly better.

 

2. Improvement does not usually come in the way Cespedes' 2015 season was vastly different from his 2013 and 2014 ones. It's linear and usually does not happen suddenly at age 30 that a player magically transforms in to a different player than he'd ever been before. Doesn't work like that anymore since the steroid era ended

[fathom]

Cespedes is definitely type of guy who would seem to shine in his walk year

[Bigsoxhurt35]

I will seriously cry tears of joy if the Sox can sign him.

I think Hahn is a sleeping giant right now with him. I think they're trying to do this without Detroit sneaking in. Hopefully Abreu is the ticket to get him here.

[JRL]

Because he's played alot his home games in parks that aren't power friendly. Since Sox play in a more power-friendly he should be able to hit more homeruns or maintain a higher amount

 

Yeah, um the diff for an average player going from the cell to his former home parks are not as drastic as everyone makes it sound. That guy who gains 10+ HR a year by playing half his games at the Cell, that everyone thinks each player we bring in will become doesnt seem to have materialized yet (Dunn, Laroche etc..)

 

Again, also excluding last year which was a clear outlier, Cespedes' offensive numbers including HR are actually slightly better at home than on road. Hard to blame his home ball parks given that info

[Saufley]

Idk I just don't see the sox spending the kind of money required to land upton or cespedes hence the reason they were shooting for gordon

 

my prediction is they grab one of the other OFs for much less money

 

As much as I would like to see the Sox sign Cespedes, I think you are right.

 

[JRL]

He's improved every year, and he would be playing in a HR hitter ballpark.

 

That he's improved every year is not true. His best year before last was his first. Also, playing in cell isnt quite as helpful as you think, and in spite of the fact that everyone wants to say "he's played in pitcher-friendly parks his whole career", prior to 2015 which was pretty clearly an outlier his home stats have actually been better than his road stats. Please stop regurgitating narratives that have been put out there and just look at the raw info/data available. Aren't we (Sox fans) supposed to be the intelligent/baseball-knowledgable base (as opposed to Cubs fans)?

[caulfield12]

4 years/$52M (2015-18), plus 2019 club option

 

signed extension with NY Yankees 2/23/14

$2M signing bonus

 

15:$12M, 16:$13M, 17:$12M, 18:$11M, 19:$12.5M club option ($2M buyout)

assignment bonus: $1M if traded

 

Brett Gardner is a minimum of $38 million dollar commitment for ages 32-34. There's always going to be a concern about speedy or athletic players declining in their early to mid 30's.

 

Essentially you add him and you're done with the offseason. The major question of course is will he make ENOUGH of a difference to justify the costs in terms of salary AND talent surrendered?

 

You'd definitely have more excitement in the outfield, but I still think you're going to have to face the issue of moving Melky Cabrera to RF.

 

 

But that's where you get into these interesting discussions, when you analyze the costs and benefits of signing Fowler and losing a pick, Gardner and losing talent or just spending money on Span, Parra and Jackson for a likely lesser rate of performance return.