Cespedes Re-signs with the Mets

[LDF]

Nobody can say what anyone will do with absolute certainty. Anything is possible. It's possible that Cespedes will break Barry Bonds' HR record next year. We can only say what likely based on the numbers we have in front of us. And, it is very unlikely Cespedes is not the player he was in 2015.

 

1. He has not improved every year he has played. He has played 4 years. His best year was clearly far and away last year (year 4). Year 1 was clearly his next best. Years 2 and 3 were the two worst years, both pretty similar though year 3 might have been slightly better.

 

2. Improvement does not usually come in the way Cespedes' 2015 season was vastly different from his 2013 and 2014 ones. It's linear and usually does not happen suddenly at age 30 that a player magically transforms in to a different player than he'd ever been before. Doesn't work like that anymore since the steroid era ended

 

well since we all know we are not talking about a bond like stats, but in his improvement comment. you are right, yr 1 was a very good yr. but making this comparison of which yr was an improvement or not, what stat are we going to look for???

 

i will also say that his walk yr stat was a very nice looking one. his hr stat was where i was looking at, yr 1 was very good and last yr total was excellent. and yr 2 and 3 were in some way an improvement.

 

my i may have been overly stating or embellishing my comment.... to so degree.

 

but i do say, i would not like to go more than 4 or 5 yrs.

 

now i am also looking at how cespedes can help in the fans influence which can help the bottom line of that increase = $$$$.

[LDF]

It depends really. If we're talking about trading for the likes of Inciarte or Tucker, then yes the price is going to be steep. Now if we're talking about Markakis', Gardner or Gomez I think the Sox can get by without giving up Anderson or Fulmer. I would love to see the Sox get after Inciarte or Tucker, even if it cost any prospect not named Fulmer or Anderson but I seriously doubt Inciarte or Tucker could be had without including one of Fulmer/Anderson.

 

I know this won't be a popular suggestion but if all else fails, I would see what Atlanta would want for Markakis. I think that's the kind of player were going to end up with. He'd cost 11M per year over the next three years, LHB, hits for AVE, OBP, low K-rate, upgrade in RF and would slot nicely at #2 in the lineup. This would put Melky in the middle of the order where he seems to hit better anyway and move LaRoche/Avi further down where they belong.

 

Eaton

Markakis

Abreu

Frazier

Melky

Lawrie

LaRoche/Avi

Navarro/Avila

Saladino

 

Don't get me wrong, there are certainly other outfielders I would rather have but I think the Sox are looking for a player that isn't too costly in terms of money or prospects. That's if they don't sign a free agent outfielder, which I still think there is some hope for.

 

but that is like finding a needle in a hay stack.

 

no offense. but i am looking at other org and known team willingness to trade their players for prospect.... to continue to build. but this is depending on what the cost will be...... which we as fans really do not know.

[Whisox05]

Yeah, um the diff for an average player going from the cell to his former home parks are not as drastic as everyone makes it sound. That guy who gains 10+ HR a year by playing half his games at the Cell, that everyone thinks each player we bring in will become doesnt seem to have materialized yet (Dunn, Laroche etc..)

 

Again, also excluding last year which was a clear outlier, Cespedes' offensive numbers including HR are actually slightly better at home than on road. Hard to blame his home ball parks given that info

 

So what makes you think he can't sustain those numbers in the cell

[JRL]

So what makes you think he can't sustain those numbers in the cell

 

I'm confused. The numbers he had his whole career? Sure I think he can sustain those in the cell. He can be a 735-750 OPS guys with 22-25 HR a year getting on base less than 30% of the time. The numbers he had last year? well I don't think he can keep those up, since they are so drastically different from anything he's done before that. If it was a true improvement it likely would have been gradual. Not he was one player in 2013 and 2014 and then all of a sudden magically a wholly different player in 2015.

[BlackSox13]

but that is like finding a needle in a hay stack.

 

no offense. but i am looking at other org and known team willingness to trade their players for prospect.... to continue to build. but this is depending on what the cost will be...... which we as fans really do not know.

That's when we will find out who is really interested in trading their outfielders. There are more potential sellers than there are buyers. Players like Gomez, Markakis and Gardner are not worth top prospects and yet are reasonably cost effective compared to the going rate of current free agents. There are so many outfielders out there available for trade as well as FA its crazy and a good time for the Sox to be a buyers. This is the year to do something because next year there won't be a big FA market for outfielders and therefore trade values for outfielders will go up. I wouldn't want to be a buyer next year, that's for sure.

[Lillian]

I'm confused. The numbers he had his whole career? Sure I think he can sustain those in the cell. He can be a 735-750 OPS guys with 22-25 HR a year getting on base less than 30% of the time. The numbers he had last year? well I don't think he can keep those up, since they are so drastically different from anything he's done before that. If it was a true improvement it likely would have been gradual. Not he was one player in 2013 and 2014 and then all of a sudden magically a wholly different player in 2015.

 

I'm curious. To what do you attribute his improvement last year? Are you suggesting that it was a fluke, or do you suspect PEDS? The guy is talented, and he did indeed produce what he produced. No one is arguing that last year was not an outlier, but the issue is how do we account for it? Was it spending those months in the National League, or is it just possible that he has matured as a player, and adjusted to the tougher pitching in the Big Leagues, compared to his previous career in Cuba?

Edited January 7, 2016 by Lillian

[hi8is]

Give me Cespedes or give me death!!!!!

[Lillian]

In responding further to JRL's skepticism, I would take any year of Cespedes' production, except perhaps his 2ND season.

His next worst year was his 3RD season, in which he produced the following:

36 double 6 triples 22 homers 100 RBI .260 AVG .301 OBP .450 SLG .751 OPS

 

The low OBP is the only troubling statistic, during that season. So, how do we explain his poor 2ND season, just prior to the year he put up the Stats, which I just listed? Perhaps he struggled, as the League discovered his weaknesses, and he needed time to adjust. That hypothesis might be supported by the fact that he really struggled against right handed pitching, in his second season. I would guess that the League may have fed him a pretty steady diet of breaking pitches, low and away, and he had to learn to lay off those pitches. Last year he was even better against Righties than he was against Lefties:

 

38 doubles 5 triples 27 homers 80 RBI's .310 AVG .338 OBP .571 SLG .909 OPS vs. RHP.

 

VERY IMPRESSIVE INDEED!!!!

Edited January 7, 2016 by Lillian

[Whisox05]

Just throwing out there for people on the skepticism of Cespedes 2015. Konerko hit 32 homeruns in 2001 which was a career high for him. He then went on to hit 41 in 04 and 40 in 05. Don't know why people can't take a career year in homeruns and said that that can't be a measuring stick for further years in continuing or bettering homerun out put

[hi8is]

Again... Give me Cespedes or give me death!!!!

[Lillian]

I just realized that he was better vs. RHP in 2014, as well. He had a tough time with them in his 2ND season, but has been terrific against them, ever since. I love a guy on our roster, who can hit RH pitching, because most of the tough lefties in our League, are on our team. Moreover, it lessens the need for a left handed bat. He would be fine, hitting behind Abreu and in front of Frazier.

 

 

Edited January 7, 2016 by Lillian

[LDF]

That's when we will find out who is really interested in trading their outfielders. There are more potential sellers than there are buyers. Players like Gomez, Markakis and Gardner are not worth top prospects and yet are reasonably cost effective compared to the going rate of current free agents. There are so many outfielders out there available for trade as well as FA its crazy and a good time for the Sox to be a buyers. This is the year to do something because next year there won't be a big FA market for outfielders and therefore trade values for outfielders will go up. I wouldn't want to be a buyer next year, that's for sure.

 

a very good post and that is where i was heading .....

 

again, good one.

[Lillian]

If one of you wants to conduct an ambitious research project, take a look at the kinds of pitches he saw, in the various seasons.

I wouldn't be surprised to discover that when he came over from Cuba, he saw mostly fast balls. After his initial success, the

League adjusted and began to feed him a steady diet of breaking balls, which were really effective, from RH pitchers. He then made the adjustment, and is now a more well rounded hitter, who has learned to hit breaking balls, from right handers.

 

You have to wonder how many pitchers in Cuba have good cutters and sliders. It was likely a challenge for him.

The numbers would tell us, but I'll leave it to someone else to see if the stats support my hypothesis.

 

In any case, after looking more closely at the stats, I really hope they sign him. To me, he is potentially the biggest impact player of this year's free agent class. I am officially on the "La Potencia Train"!!! (The Power Train)

Edited January 7, 2016 by Lillian

[Jerksticks]

Just throwing out there for people on the skepticism of Cespedes 2015. Konerko hit 32 homeruns in 2001 which was a career high for him. He then went on to hit 41 in 04 and 40 in 05. Don't know why people can't take a career year in homeruns and said that that can't be a measuring stick for further years in continuing or bettering homerun out put

Love it. Just great to see the name Konerko written here.

[soxfan85]

Again... Give me Cespedes or give me death!!!!

 

 

I agree...Give ME Cespedes or give ME death!!!!

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Give me Cespedes or give me....Upton!!...or give me death!

[EvilJester99]

Give me Cespedes or Upton.. or give YOU all death

[Jose Abreu]

Welp, a pretty rumor-less day

[RockRaines]

Two three letter user names arguing with each other is super confusing.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Phil Rogers was just on hot stove. Just reiterated the 3 year deal sentiment. Said we could be outbid for him by a team like Baltimore or Detroit. Did mention upton on a 2 year deal. Talked about Jose trying to broker a deal and get him here. I'm hoping that really helps.

 

 

Just get it done Hahn! Let's go buddy. I don't see us getting it done for 3 years, but if they did that'd be fine.

Edited January 7, 2016 by SouthSideSale

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Phil Rogers was just on hot stove. Just reiterated the 3 year deal sentiment. Said we could be outbid for him by a team like Baltimore or Detroit. Did mention upton on a 2 year deal.

 

 

Just get it done Hahn! Let's go buddy. I don't see us getting it done for 3 years, but if they did that'd be fine.

I'm sorry, but the Sox aren't getting Cespedes on a 3 year deal unless the AAV was SKY high. Like $30+ million a season high.

Edited January 7, 2016 by ChiSoxFanMike

[Steve9347]

Give me Cespedes or give me death!!!!!

I'm with him. Not adding another bat renders that Fraser deal pointless.

[caulfield12]

If they got Upton or Cespedes for $12 million and $16 million the next two years (see Gordon deal), they would have to hugely backload it or provide a gigantic balloon payment or bonus after year two or three along with the opt out.

 

Those players aren't going out of their way like a Buehrle, Sale, Quintana or Konerko to help out the Sox from a financial flexibility standpoint if it's not beneficial to them first.

Edited January 7, 2016 by caulfield12

[hogan873]

Phil Rogers was just on hot stove. Just reiterated the 3 year deal sentiment. Said we could be outbid for him by a team like Baltimore or Detroit. Did mention upton on a 2 year deal. Talked about Jose trying to broker a deal and get him here. I'm hoping that really helps.

 

 

Just get it done Hahn! Let's go buddy. I don't see us getting it done for 3 years, but if they did that'd be fine.

Unless the Sox were to pay Cespedes A LOT per year on a three year deal, I would be very surprised if he were to sign. The Upton idea is intriguing, but isn't the free agent class of 2017 looking very thin? Wouldn't he be more willing to sign a one year deal and take advantage of the weak class next off season? Unless 2018 is looking thin, too.

 

As each day goes by, I'm a little less optimistic about Cespedes signing with the Sox. I'd be okay with one of the second tier free agents on the right deal. But I just have this sinking feeling that we're all going to be disappointed pretty soon.

[caulfield12]

Unless the Sox were to pay Cespedes A LOT per year on a three year deal, I would be very surprised if he were to sign. The Upton idea is intriguing, but isn't the free agent class of 2017 looking very thin? Wouldn't he be more willing to sign a one year deal and take advantage of the weak class next off season? Unless 2018 is looking thin, too.

 

As each day goes by, I'm a little less optimistic about Cespedes signing with the Sox. I'd be okay with one of the second tier free agents on the right deal. But I just have this sinking feeling that we're all going to be disappointed pretty soon.

 

Post 2017 looks like roughly the midpoint between next year and post 2018 in talent...at least as of today.

 

Still not as many big name outfielders. Lorenzo Cain would be one of the best in terms of WAR.