Sox Acquire All-Star 3B Todd Frazier from Reds in 3 team deal

[caulfield12]

Flavum, surprised at you.

 

Actually, there's 1/3rd of me waiting/hoping for them to shock the world and make that $100+ million free agent splash and the skeptic/doubtful side expecting us to miss out on Upton, Cespedes and Gordon for the typical Sox reasons.

 

One thing's for sure, this board would be a lot more excited/optimistic/hopeful with that big splash addition.

 

Without it, the general feeling is going to be mostly skepticism and "prove it!"

[jenksycat]

Just look at the WAR numbers and figure out how you're going to get to a decent cumulative number compared to what they had.

 

Yeah Frazier/Lawrie isn't much an upgrade over Saladino/Sanchez

 

I will add a big OF'er needs to be added or it is pointless

Edited December 17, 2015 by Jenksy Cat

[caulfield12]

The C platoon improves that spot. We've upgrade 3B and 2b quite a bit. If they add a good OF this offseason has been excellent.

 

Avila, LaRoche, Lawrie, Eaton, Cabrera and Abreu all have to be considered "above average" health risks in terms of getting injured at some point or another.

 

Things are certainly looking BETTER, but we're still trusting Saladino, Erik Johnson, John Danks, Avi, LaRoche and the bullpen a lot more than they probably deserve.

 

 

At least one more offensive addition and 2nd/3rd tier veteran starter OR replacement for Albers would help, although Jones can help pick up the slack if he can stay healthy. The last two are more luxuries at this point, but the big bat is an absolute necessity or there are just too many flaws in the plan that can go wrong.

[JRL]

Yeah Frazier/Lawrie isn't much an upgrade over Saladino/Sanchez

 

I will add a big OF'er needs to be added or it is pointless

 

I actually think the opinion that we need a big OF or its pointless is reasonable,and I agree with it. The idea that we need 4-5 more players to be a contender is ludicrous. The idea that we're still 1 more player away after Frazier is not though. And, if you're of that opinion, then there is no point of the Frazier trade unless you add that extra piece of pieces to give you what you're still missing. what's the point of trading away viable prospects for a very good player who makes you an 80 win team?

[Hatchetman]

I can't recall the exact numbers but Sox position players had like 17 cumulative WAR, which was dead last or near it in MLB. good teams have about 40 WAR. So let's say Frazier gives you 5-6 extra. Lawrie 2-3. where's the rest coming from?

[RockRaines]

Avila, LaRoche, Lawrie, Eaton, Cabrera and Abreu all have to be considered "above average" health risks in terms of getting injured at some point or another.

 

Things are certainly looking BETTER, but we're still trusting Saladino, Erik Johnson, John Danks, Avi, LaRoche and the bullpen a lot more than they probably deserve.

 

 

At least one more offensive addition and 2nd/3rd tier veteran starter OR replacement for Albers would help, although Jones can help pick up the slack if he can stay healthy. The last two are more luxuries at this point, but the big bat is an absolute necessity or there are just too many flaws in the plan that can go wrong.

You cannot take injuries into account when building a roster unless they are injury prone. Our rotation is fantastic and our offense should be improved. One more addition and it's quite an offseason.

[JRL]

I can't recall the exact numbers but Sox position players had like 17 cumulative WAR, which was dead last or near it in MLB. good teams have about 40 WAR. So let's say Frazier gives you 5-6 extra. Lawrie 2-3. where's the rest coming from?

 

The WAR statistic is much more useful for quantifying individual players' contributions than teams. A team's cumulative WAR is really not useful for trying to predict how many games a team wins. Not saying it never correlates, but it deeply flawed when used for that purpose. Here are a few of the teams with WARs that did not in any way correspond to their actual records: Dbacks were 6, Indians 10th, Yankees 15th, Texas 12....

[caulfield12]

I can't recall the exact numbers but Sox position players had like 17 cumulative WAR, which was dead last or near it in MLB. good teams have about 40 WAR. So let's say Frazier gives you 5-6 extra. Lawrie 2-3. where's the rest coming from?

 

I think a 5-6 net improvement is a lot more realistic.

 

7-9 just feels way too high. Lawrie has been injured a lot, and playing 2B everyday will exacerbate that possibility (it's why the Dodgers decided to keep Turner at 3B and didn't trade for Frazier themselves)...and his defensive skill-set and size/bulkiness right now are more well-suited for third.

 

We do at least have a capable back-up option in Carlos Sanchez, especially from a defensive standpoint.

[caulfield12]

You cannot take injuries into account when building a roster unless they are injury prone. Our rotation is fantastic and our offense should be improved. One more addition and it's quite an offseason.

 

The front end of the rotation is that.

 

Danks is what he is.

 

Johnson is the key. If he solidifies that spot, they're flying high. If not, then you're left with lots of bad options like Beck, Carroll, Jacob Turner and you're behind the 8 ball early, because the trade market won't have developed until late May. It would be pretty shocking if they forced Fulmer into the big league rotation at any point in the first half of the season, unless he was just lighting up Birmingham.

[oldsox]

Where does this leave Mike Olt? Sox 40 man down to 36, I believe. Is any team lower?

 

Gotta believe Montas was the big trading chip here, and that Hahn offered him to others. I thought we could have gotten more for those three players, but Frazier is now a big part of the team, so we are now pulling for him big time. Even Hawk, who lost his "game changer".

[bmags]

I like lot as a bench piece. I like bench power more than contact.

 

Edit: Olt

Edited December 17, 2015 by bmags

[southsider2k5]

I can't recall the exact numbers but Sox position players had like 17 cumulative WAR, which was dead last or near it in MLB. good teams have about 40 WAR. So let's say Frazier gives you 5-6 extra. Lawrie 2-3. where's the rest coming from?

 

Earlier in this thread someone put the numbers together and the Sox as a team was just barely behind Cleveland for the highest predicted WAR in the AL Central.

[southsider2k5]

Where does this leave Mike Olt? Sox 40 man down to 36, I believe. Is any team lower?

 

Gotta believe Montas was the big trading chip here, and that Hahn offered him to others. I thought we could have gotten more for those three players, but Frazier is now a big part of the team, so we are now pulling for him big time. Even Hawk, who lost his "game changer".

 

It leaves him in Charlotte.

[RockRaines]

The front end of the rotation is that.

 

Danks is what he is.

 

Johnson is the key. If he solidifies that spot, they're flying high. If not, then you're left with lots of bad options like Beck, Carroll, Jacob Turner and you're behind the 8 ball early, because the trade market won't have developed until late May. It would be pretty shocking if they forced Fulmer into the big league rotation at any point in the first half of the season, unless he was just lighting up Birmingham.

I have our top three as top notch with questions at the bottom but with upside. Fulmer shouldn't be here till 2017

[Buehrle>Wood]

I never want to see Mike Olt again.

 

Extremely minor complaint but we really should have drafted a reliever in the rule 5.

[Dam8610]

Go get Cespedes or trade for an OF. Or shock the world and sign Dan Murphy to a Headley type contract and play him at 2B/3B/LF/DH. Murphy will be a lot cheaper and a better overall asset. You lose the comp pick that way I think, but Upton loses you the comp pick as well, and the White Sox need some versatility and a hitter who just does not strike out.

[whtsoxfan]

Who do the Sox have to trade for a starter and OF, without creating holes?

 

 

[TomPickle]

I can't recall the exact numbers but Sox position players had like 17 cumulative WAR, which was dead last or near it in MLB. good teams have about 40 WAR. So let's say Frazier gives you 5-6 extra. Lawrie 2-3. where's the rest coming from?

There has been one team since 2000 to produce a 40+ WAR for position players and that was the 2001 Mariners that won 116 games.

 

White Sox had an absurdly low 3.1 cumulative WAR for their position players last year.

 

If Lawrie and Frazier perform the exact same as they did last year that would be a 7.5 WAR increase over what the White Sox got out of 2B and 3B last season. Don't think this trade alone makes the Sox contenders, but don't think they are 4-5 players away either like some have said in this thread.

[Hatchetman]

Yes my numbers were off, but sox were still like 20 WAR below good teams.

[OmarComing25]

I can't recall the exact numbers but Sox position players had like 17 cumulative WAR, which was dead last or near it in MLB. good teams have about 40 WAR. So let's say Frazier gives you 5-6 extra. Lawrie 2-3. where's the rest coming from?

Sox are projected for ~34 WAR right now, add a 3 WAR OF and we're fine. Cleveland is at 38.

[Hatchetman]

Sox are projected for ~34 WAR right now, add a 3 WAR OF and we're fine. Cleveland is at 38.

 

where are these projections?

[OmarComing25]

where are these projections?

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

[Hatchetman]

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

 

 

Thanks. I could not find that anywhere on Fangraphs. So Sox still below average with Lawrie and Frazier. Thus my assertion they are 4-5 players from being a legit championship caliber club. Of course anything can happen. you can win the division with 88 games and win the world series. unlikely, but possible.

[OmarComing25]

Thanks. I could not find that anywhere on Fangraphs. So Sox still below average with Lawrie and Frazier. Thus my assertion they are 4-5 players from being a legit championship caliber club. Of course anything can happen. you can win the division with 88 games and win the world series. unlikely, but possible.

You're making it sound like they need 4-5 new players of Frazier's caliber. If the Sox did that we'd be runaway favorites for the AL Pennant. Another OF and they are easily contenders for the ALC, our division isn't that tough. Also, all you need to do is get into the playoffs to win it all, if you go by regular season record, the team with the better record has won the playoff series slightly less than 50% of the time since the strike year. The playoffs are pretty much a crapshoot.

Edited December 17, 2015 by OmarComing25

[chitownsportsfan]

There has been one team since 2000 to produce a 40+ WAR for position players and that was the 2001 Mariners that won 116 games.

 

White Sox had an absurdly low 3.1 cumulative WAR for their position players last year.

 

If Lawrie and Frazier perform the exact same as they did last year that would be a 7.5 WAR increase over what the White Sox got out of 2B and 3B last season. Don't think this trade alone makes the Sox contenders, but don't think they are 4-5 players away either like some have said in this thread.

 

f***ing regression better hit some of these guys this year in a relative positive manner. seems the Sox have been snake bit lately. Even most of their (quote, unquote) "saber moves" have proven s***ty position player wise. I mean, Dunn by saber analysis was good. So was Melky. Hasn't worked so far.