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Upton or Cespedes


TheTruth05

Upton or Cespedes?  

98 members have voted

  1. 1. Pick one

    • Justin Upton
      53
    • Yoenis Cespedes
      45


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QUOTE (JRL @ Dec 17, 2015 -> 09:51 PM)
Was using DWAR from BBREF

BBR uses DRS to calculate dWAR so I find it easiest just to use straight DRS when comparing 2 players of the same position defensively as you get a broader spectrum. By dWAR Cespedes was a .8 in 218 chances with Detroit last year and a -0.1 in 130 with the Mets while Upton was a .2 in 247 chances. Holy s*** did Yoenis face a lot more chances last year, 348 to 247, damn. Cespedes had 262 chances in LF last year so it's about the same as Upton, he beat him 15 to 8. Yoenis is hurt by the fact that he was asked to play 312 innings in center, something he's really struggled with, that decreased his DRS by 4 points while Upton played only the same position he's been playing the last 3 years.

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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 18, 2015 -> 12:32 AM)
Is there any news on either of these guys? Have the White Sox been connected to either in any significant way? Are either of them nearing a deal?

 

Mostly just speculation at this point. Doesn't look like much of a market for any since the big spenders aren't looking to spend on outfielders. If we land one at significantly less than what they were projected to get, I'll be thrilled. I'm in the Cespedes camp however.

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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 18, 2015 -> 07:04 AM)
Mostly just speculation at this point. Doesn't look like much of a market for any since the big spenders aren't looking to spend on outfielders. If we land one at significantly less than what they were projected to get, I'll be thrilled. I'm in the Cespedes camp however.

It's been an odd off season with the signings being relatively slow. I thought that the other outfielders would sign pretty quickly after Heyward did, but you're right when you say the big spenders aren't after outfielders. It seems more and more likely each day that the Sox will sign one of Upton, Gordon, or Cespedes. And I believe that each will most likely sign for less than what was thought.

 

I'd be fine with any of the three, but with Cespedes not costing a pick, he might be the most desirable.

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I would say neither because it would take away all leverage and flexibility for the future. But what the heck. Kenny Williams is hell bent on an 84 win team so let's get it for him. id vote Gordon but he has a high OBP and is an excellent defender, so I'm sure The Sox will look elsewhere.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 17, 2015 -> 07:59 PM)
Cespedes is a much more dynamic and exciting player.

 

He's a natural companion piece to Abreu in terms of teammates/camaraderie and marketing.

 

He can also play any of the OF positions, but is much stronger in RF and LF. Having Cespedes and Eaton together improves your defense quite a bit...and psychologically, knowing you have a competent fielder on your left side allows you to cheat a bit more to the other side and protect Cabrera in the gap. Upton is an average fielder, at best. All of his value comes from hitting and speed/athleticism, which is on the verge of declining in the next couple of years with all of the wear and tear on his body from being healthy for such a long stretch.

 

Yoenis is proven in the AL and NL. He basically was the borderline NL MVP last year, certainly for the last two months. He performed well in both the AL West and AL Central. Upton hasn't shown that...doesn't mean he's not capable, but it's not a given at this point either, not with all the recent issues we've had in that area (LaRoche, Dunn, Samardzija, etc.)

 

With his age and the current White Sox "open window" of 2016 and 2017, a contract for four years for Cespedes with higher average value (or maybe an opt-out again after 2017) makes a lot more financial sense than possibly being "stuck" with Upton for six years.

 

Upton hasn't hit very well the last three years against the AL in inter-league play, only a .207 average in over 200 at-bats.

Now the Sox window is the next 2 season? Who have they lost the last few days that has destroyed any chance of them being good in 2018, when you said was the best case scenario of them being good last week?

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Ken Rosenthal just said on MLBN that an O's beat writer said that the O's aren't spending 100 million+ on a player other than Chris Davis.

 

So now, that is the Angels, Giants, Cardinals, and O's now out on the big OFs.

 

That leaves the Sox, Nationals, Tigers, and Royals that have reported interest in the big 3 OFs.

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QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Dec 18, 2015 -> 09:12 AM)
Ken Rosenthal just said on MLBN that an O's beat writer said that the O's aren't spending 100 million+ on a player other than Chris Davis.

 

So now, that is the Angels, Giants, Cardinals, and O's now out on the big OFs.

 

That leaves the Sox, Nationals, Tigers, and Royals that have reported interest in the big 3 OFs.

 

Don't ever believe teams are truly out on a player even when they say they're "out". A lot of bluffing going on.

 

That being said it's been reported that the Sox need to clear some space to sign one of these guys. Personally I'd trade LaRoche to Pittsburgh and pick up whatever part of the salary the Sox have to pick up just to get him out of here, at this point he adds nothing to the team. Then I'd try to deal Robertson. There might be some teams that would be interested in him and I'm of the belief that you can always find a closer either in house or sign a few guys on 1 year deals to compete for it. Robertson's deal is probably holding up a signing right now.

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QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Dec 18, 2015 -> 09:12 AM)
Ken Rosenthal just said on MLBN that an O's beat writer said that the O's aren't spending 100 million+ on a player other than Chris Davis.

 

So now, that is the Angels, Giants, Cardinals, and O's now out on the big OFs.

 

That leaves the Sox, Nationals, Tigers, and Royals that have reported interest in the big 3 OFs.

If the Royals are lowballing Gordon, offering him about $50 million for 4 years, they aren't in on the others. They are out. There are always teams that say they are out that are in, and some surprises, but it does seem to be working in favor of signing one of these guys nowhere near what the prices appeared to be in October.

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QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Dec 18, 2015 -> 09:12 AM)
Ken Rosenthal just said on MLBN that an O's beat writer said that the O's aren't spending 100 million+ on a player other than Chris Davis.

 

So now, that is the Angels, Giants, Cardinals, and O's now out on the big OFs.

 

That leaves the Sox, Nationals, Tigers, and Royals that have reported interest in the big 3 OFs.

Doesn't feel like the Tigers/Royals would be in on Upton either, seems like he's there for the taking.

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QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Dec 18, 2015 -> 09:12 AM)
Ken Rosenthal just said on MLBN that an O's beat writer said that the O's aren't spending 100 million+ on a player other than Chris Davis.

 

So now, that is the Angels, Giants, Cardinals, and O's now out on the big OFs.

 

That leaves the Sox, Nationals, Tigers, and Royals that have reported interest in the big 3 OFs.

 

I doubt the Royals will want to spend $100+ million on any of the big name OFers. They've been rumored to offer Gordon something like $12 million a year, which is ludicrous. He's worth at least 4 years and $80 million or 5 years and $100 million. And that's very fair market value at that.

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QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Dec 18, 2015 -> 09:12 AM)
Ken Rosenthal just said on MLBN that an O's beat writer said that the O's aren't spending 100 million+ on a player other than Chris Davis.

 

So now, that is the Angels, Giants, Cardinals, and O's now out on the big OFs.

 

That leaves the Sox, Nationals, Tigers, and Royals that have reported interest in the big 3 OFs.

 

 

I doubt that the Angels are out.

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QUOTE (dpd9189 @ Dec 18, 2015 -> 09:18 AM)
Don't ever believe teams are truly out on a player even when they say they're "out". A lot of bluffing going on.

 

That being said it's been reported that the Sox need to clear some space to sign one of these guys. Personally I'd trade LaRoche to Pittsburgh and pick up whatever part of the salary the Sox have to pick up just to get him out of here, at this point he adds nothing to the team. Then I'd try to deal Robertson. There might be some teams that would be interested in him and I'm of the belief that you can always find a closer either in house or sign a few guys on 1 year deals to compete for it. Robertson's deal is probably holding up a signing right now.

Hahn already offered to pay $8 million of LaRoche's salary to the Pirates and they turned it down.

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QUOTE (JRL @ Dec 17, 2015 -> 08:38 PM)
Not really sure how Cespedes is more "dynamic and exciting" and a more "natural companion piece to Abreu in terms of teammates/camaraderie and marketing." Are you just trying to say that they are both Cuban? That would have been easier.

 

Cespedes' defense, even as a corner outfielder (much less the center fielder you suggest he could competently be) has declined in recent seasons and Upton's has improved to the point where the metrics say they're about the same (Upton was actually slightly better in 2015, but only negligibly so).

 

200 ABs is not a significant sample size, especially when those ABs are randomly dispersed and not on a consistent basis. For any player we can pick out even the best of hitters we could go through all their ABs and find 200 of them over which they hit around 207. I'm not sure why Upton's 2015 performance against the AL should be viewed any differently, especially since he's a career 276 hitter vs the AL. For that matter I'm not sure why anyone's uncharacteristically good or bad performance vs the AL or NL specifically should be viewed differently than the result of randomness. People always cite those numbers, but is there some type of statistic I'm missing showing AL pitching to be, on the whole, substantially more difficult to hit against?

 

Cespedes' clearly outlier 2015 season and his very good rookie year sandwiched 2 pretty unimpressive seasons.

No, it's just that a whole bunch of people here attribute any hitter coming from the NL to the AL and declining to the league switch. Because reasons.

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QUOTE (dpd9189 @ Dec 18, 2015 -> 09:18 AM)
Don't ever believe teams are truly out on a player even when they say they're "out". A lot of bluffing going on.

 

That being said it's been reported that the Sox need to clear some space to sign one of these guys. Personally I'd trade LaRoche to Pittsburgh and pick up whatever part of the salary the Sox have to pick up just to get him out of here, at this point he adds nothing to the team. Then I'd try to deal Robertson. There might be some teams that would be interested in him and I'm of the belief that you can always find a closer either in house or sign a few guys on 1 year deals to compete for it. Robertson's deal is probably holding up a signing right now.

 

Woah!!! Remember, the front office is obviously going for it. How do they then turn around and deal their closer. I don't see them giving up any useful assets, or creating any temporary holes. They are going to add, not subtract. Whether, or not they are doing the right thing is debatable, but that is what they are doing.

Edited by Lillian
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QUOTE (blackmooncreeping @ Dec 18, 2015 -> 09:58 AM)
Give them another call, phone stalk them, throw in another 2 million. Do whatever it takes to open up the DH spot for Melky and bring in 2 outfielders. Cmon Hahn!

Pirates just traded for a 1B from the Brewers, right? That door is closed.

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