Upton or Cespedes

[Bigsoxhurt35]

More than likely they were giving Danks a chance to try to prove he had something left so the Sox could potentially move him. He can't do that out of the bullpen. Johnson could have easily been worse. Danks had more value than you are giving him credit for. He was 59th last year amongst all starters in fWAR. Fangraphs placed his value on the open market at $14.2 million, basically right even with what he was paid.

I'm hoping we add Maeda. Then hope Danks does well and we can move him at the deadline and slide EJ in his spot.

[OmarComing25]

I'm hoping we add Maeda. Then hope Danks does well and we can move him at the deadline and slide EJ in his spot.

I'd rather sign Upton over Maeda. I don't think Danks or LaRoche's salaries are going to be a big concern, they both only have 1 year left. If by the deadline they're really struggling and a better option presents itself from within or elsewhere, I doubt we'd keep playing them just because of the salary. We really don't have better options for those two positions right now, so there's no reason not to play them. At least give LaRoche a chance to see if he can bounce back, that's the best option at this point. That can change mid-season though depending on how things play out.

Edited December 17, 2015 by OmarComing25

[LDF]

I'd rather sign Upton over Maeda. I don't think Danks or LaRoche's salaries are going to be a big concern, they both only have 1 year left. If by the deadline they're really struggling and a better option presents itself from within or elsewhere, I doubt we'd keep playing them just because of the salary. We really don't have better options for those two positions right now, so there's no reason not to play them. At least give LaRoche a chance to see if he can bounce back, that's the best option at this point. That can change mid-season though depending on how things play out.

 

according to another post, the owners has somewhat approved a salary up to 130 mil. depending on the player.

 

so in essence, only 1 more fa and they are done for the winter.

 

so larroche 13, is affecting the plans, b/c 13 mil is on the books and b/c the owners will not eat 13 mil just for the sake of eating 13 mil.

[blackmooncreeping]

More than likely they were giving Danks a chance to try to prove he had something left so the Sox could potentially move him. He can't do that out of the bullpen. Johnson could have easily been worse. Danks had more value than you are giving him credit for. He was 59th last year amongst all starters in fWAR. Fangraphs placed his value on the open market at $14.2 million, basically right even with what he was paid.

 

Meaning 14.2 mil just doesn't get you what it used to...

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Bob Nightengale said White Sox are Uptons perfect landing spot on MLBN. Talking about it now. Said they've had dialogue

[Buehrle>Wood]

Bob Nightengale said White Sox are Uptons perfect landing spot on MLBN. Talking about it now. Said they've had dialogue

The White Sox' go to media leak. Nice.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

The White Sox' go to media leak. Nice.

Yyyyup. He gets all the nuggets.

[JRL]

More than likely they were giving Danks a chance to try to prove he had something left so the Sox could potentially move him. He can't do that out of the bullpen. Johnson could have easily been worse. Danks had more value than you are giving him credit for. He was 59th last year amongst all starters in fWAR. Fangraphs placed his value on the open market at $14.2 million, basically right even with what he was paid.

 

I'm talking about in June of last year. If they thought there was potential for Danks to prove that he had something left, that is very foolish, considering it had already been 2.5 years since he returned from the shoulder surgery, and it wasn't good. At that point it's pretty clear that's the pitcher he is. And he was 62 in FWAR out of 78 pitchers who pitched enough innings to qualify for the leaderboard. That is clearly not good at all. I would love a link to the fangraphs piece valuing him at 14.2 mil on the open market. I find that almost impossible to believe.

 

I was in a hurry at work, so my point about Johnson wasn't clear. My point wasn't that Johnson would have been better or even probably been better. My point was that at a certain point its obvious that, given the weakness of the Sox lineup and, to a degree, Samardzija, it would be almost impossible to make the playoffs with Danks going every 5th day. So, even if its most likely that Johnson is worse (not sure if that was or was not the case, but even if it was...), but there is a 5% chance that he'll be better, why not put him in the rotation? It's possible, however small that possibility, that Johnson could be better and help you make a playoff push (obviously in hindsight, he would have needed to be Kershaw to help them make a playoff push, but I'm talking from the vantage point of mid-June-ish 2015) or he could be worse and you win 72 games instead of 76. So what was there to gain by continuing to start Danks every 5th day? Only reason could have been his salary

[Lillian]

Upton's Career Stats are remarkably consistent. Even his Inter-League numbers are very close to his performance against N. L. teams.

The guy seems to hit righties and lefties about the same, whether at home, or on the road. Even where he bats in the lineup has had very little

effect. All of that is very reassuring, especially regarding the concerns that some of us have expressed about acquiring National League players.

If we could put him in the heart of the order and just pencil in his career numbers of .271 .352 .473 .825, the Sox really could be ready to compete

for a couple of Post Season runs.

Edited December 18, 2015 by Lillian

[Bob Sacamano]

Upton's Career Stats are remarkably consistent. Even his Inter-League numbers are very close to his performance against N. L. teams.

The guy seems to hit righties and lefties about the same, whether at home, or on the road. Even where he bats in the lineup has had very little

effect. All of that is very reassuring, especially regarding the concerns that some of us have expressed about acquiring National League players.

If we could put him in the heart of the order and just pencil in his career numbers of .271 .352 .473 .825, the Sox really could be ready to compete

for a couple of Post Season runs.

 

Nice info. Well done.

[fathom]

I started watching some Upton highlights from last year and something jumped off the screen to me...he hit a ton of cheap homers. I looked up the stats and he was near the top of the list for lucky/cheap homers. This was one of the warning signs that people had regarding LaRoche and Abreu after 2014. Upton's average home run distance was 10 feet less in 2015 than 2014. He's a good player, but his power is his main tool and if that starts to fade, you're looking at a bad contract possibly.

[Kyyle23]

I started watching some Upton highlights from last year and something jumped off the screen to me...he hit a ton of cheap homers. I looked up the stats and he was near the top of the list for lucky/cheap homers. This was one of the warning signs that people had regarding LaRoche and Abreu after 2014. Upton's average home run distance was 10 feet less in 2015 than 2014. He's a good player, but his power is his main tool and if that starts to fade, you're looking at a bad contract possibly.

 

 

Doesn't seem like it was a good indicator for abreu, the guy just completed back to back seasons that only Pujols matched

[fathom]

Doesn't seem like it was a good indicator for abreu, the guy just completed back to back seasons that only Pujols matched

 

Pretty decent drop in power though for him last year

[Kyyle23]

Pretty decent drop in power though for him last year

 

One less double, one more triple, and 6 less homers. I mean if you want to nitpick, whatever, but the guy still mashed. The cheapie home run stat is pretty lame

 

Putting Laroche and Abreu on the same "falloff" plane using the cheapie home run stat is equally as lame

[fathom]

One less double, one more triple, and 6 less homers. I mean if you want to nitpick, whatever, but the guy still mashed. The cheapie home run stat is pretty lame

 

Putting Laroche and Abreu on the same "falloff" plane using the cheapie home run stat is equally as lame

 

Only reason I remember it is because one of the preseason magazines that has a unique stat for every team had the "lucky" homer top 5 for the Sox, since LaRoche and Abreu were 1-2. This stat was less about Abreu and more about a potential red flag with Upton.

[OmarComing25]

One less double, one more triple, and 6 less homers. I mean if you want to nitpick, whatever, but the guy still mashed. The cheapie home run stat is pretty lame

 

Putting Laroche and Abreu on the same "falloff" plane using the cheapie home run stat is equally as lame

Not sure 10 feet is significant enough to worry about either.

[Lillian]

I started watching some Upton highlights from last year and something jumped off the screen to me...he hit a ton of cheap homers. I looked up the stats and he was near the top of the list for lucky/cheap homers. This was one of the warning signs that people had regarding LaRoche and Abreu after 2014. Upton's average home run distance was 10 feet less in 2015 than 2014. He's a good player, but his power is his main tool and if that starts to fade, you're looking at a bad contract possibly.

 

You might have a different perspective, after viewing this chart and graph:

 

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php...amp;type=hitter

 

There actually were not very many "cheap" homers.

His 3 shortest homers measured 360', 363'and 367'. He hit 15 of them over 400'.

Perhaps you just happened to see videos of the few that were not legitimate "bombs".

Edited December 18, 2015 by Lillian

[fathom]

You might have a different perspective, after viewing this chart and graph:

 

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php...amp;type=hitter

 

There actually were not very many "cheap" homers. Perhaps you just happened to see videos of the few that were not legitimate "bombs".

 

That's 2014

[Kyyle23]

Only reason I remember it is because one of the preseason magazines that has a unique stat for every team had the "lucky" homer top 5 for the Sox, since LaRoche and Abreu were 1-2. This stat was less about Abreu and more about a potential red flag with Upton.

 

I just don't see how you can start by saying how consistent Upton is, and then cite one of his consistent stats and call it a red flag

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I started watching some Upton highlights from last year and something jumped off the screen to me...he hit a ton of cheap homers. I looked up the stats and he was near the top of the list for lucky/cheap homers. This was one of the warning signs that people had regarding LaRoche and Abreu after 2014. Upton's average home run distance was 10 feet less in 2015 than 2014. He's a good player, but his power is his main tool and if that starts to fade, you're looking at a bad contract possibly.

 

He's 28 but he might be an old 28. He's played a ton of games the last 5 years, never less than 149 games. That's usually a good thing ,always being in the lineup, but it can take it's toll. His OBP has declined 4 straight years to his career low last year and he was a notoriously streaky hitter.

[fathom]

I just don't see how you can start by saying how consistent Upton is, and then cite one of his consistent stats and call it a red flag

 

I wasn't the one who said he was consistent.

[Lillian]

That's 2014

 

No, the chart, graph and figures I cited were for 2015

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Upton's Career Stats are remarkably consistent. Even his Inter-League numbers are very close to his performance against N. L. teams.

The guy seems to hit righties and lefties about the same, whether at home, or on the road. Even where he bats in the lineup has had very little

effect. All of that is very reassuring, especially regarding the concerns that some of us have expressed about acquiring National League players.

If we could put him in the heart of the order and just pencil in his career numbers of .271 .352 .473 .825, the Sox really could be ready to compete

for a couple of Post Season runs.

 

I think it's a mistake to look at career stats . After all the guy isn't 22, 23, 24 any more. . I think it's best to look for trends . Last year he was bad vs. left handers and terribly streaky. Just look at his bating averages by month. June and July he was terrible. His OBP has gone down for 4 straight years. All that being said I wouldn't be at all upset if the Sox got him because he does have a good track record . I just like Cespedes and his AL pedigree more.

[blackmooncreeping]

You might have a different perspective, after viewing this chart and graph:

 

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php...amp;type=hitter

 

There actually were not very many "cheap" homers.

His 3 shortest homers measured 360', 363'and 367'. He hit 15 of them over 400'.

Perhaps you just happened to see videos of the few that were not legitimate "bombs".

 

Great graph. Dude averages 400 feet a home run, I don't see a concern about a drop-off in power. Plus he hit a ton in April/May, something the White Sox desperately need.

[Lillian]

I think it's a mistake to look at career stats . After all the guy isn't 22, 23, 24 any more. . I think it's best to look for trends . Last year he was bad vs. left handers and terribly streaky. Just look at his bating averages by month. June and July he was terrible. His OBP has gone down for 4 straight years. All that being said I wouldn't be at all upset if the Sox got him because he does have a good track record . I just like Cespedes and his AL pedigree more.

 

You make a valid point about the trend, and I do worry about the A. L. factor. I'd also love Cespedes. Nevertheless, Upton has been pretty consistent, in his career, and he is young enough that we shouldn't expect age to be a factor, for a while.