Abreu Contract Status

[Saufley]

So Abreu is signed for two more years, right? He was signed out of Cuba and how does that affect his arbitration years? Wondering how the Abreu contract affects the Frazier and Lawrie trades and any future FA signings?

Edited December 27, 2015 by Saufley

[Balta1701]

Jose Abreu originally signed a 6 year contract with the White Sox. That 6 years would cover enough service time for him to become a free agent normally. As it stands right now, Abreu is under contract with the White Sox for 4 more years. His salary for 2016 of $10 million is fully guaranteed.

 

HOWEVER: Abreu has the right to opt out of that contract each year starting next year. If he opts out of that contract, he Does Not become a free agent; the White Sox retain his rights and would be able to offer him arbitration.

 

Thus, if he opts out next offseason, the White Sox would still retain his rights for the next 3 seasons if they chose to offer arbitration each of those years. He would only become a free agent if the White Sox chose to non-tender him after one of those seasons.

 

The reason Abreu would do that opt-out starting next year is that there's a good chance he will make more in arbitration next offseason than he would based on his current contract. It would sacrifice "job security" but someone would still offer him something close to what he's under contract for in whatever crazy scenario involving injury you can come up with.

 

The White Sox have Abreu's rights for 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019. His salary in 2016 will be $10 million. Assuming he doesn't completely fail next year or get massively hurt, he will opt out of his deal and you can expect his salary to go up somewhat from that amount, probably closer to $14 million ish give or take in 2017, followed by moving upwards to >$20 million by 2019.

 

He will then be a free agent after 2019, assuming no additional contracts are signed.

[Saufley]

Jose Abreu originally signed a 6 year contract with the White Sox. That 6 years would cover enough service time for him to become a free agent normally. As it stands right now, Abreu is under contract with the White Sox for 4 more years. His salary for 2016 of $10 million is fully guaranteed.

 

HOWEVER: Abreu has the right to opt out of that contract each year starting next year. If he opts out of that contract, he Does Not become a free agent; the White Sox retain his rights and would be able to offer him arbitration.

 

Thus, if he opts out next offseason, the White Sox would still retain his rights for the next 3 seasons if they chose to offer arbitration each of those years. He would only become a free agent if the White Sox chose to non-tender him after one of those seasons.

 

The reason Abreu would do that opt-out starting next year is that there's a good chance he will make more in arbitration next offseason than he would based on his current contract. It would sacrifice "job security" but someone would still offer him something close to what he's under contract for in whatever crazy scenario involving injury you can come up with.

 

The White Sox have Abreu's rights for 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019. His salary in 2016 will be $10 million. Assuming he doesn't completely fail next year or get massively hurt, he will opt out of his deal and you can expect his salary to go up somewhat from that amount, probably closer to $14 million ish give or take in 2017, followed by moving upwards to >$20 million by 2019.

 

He will then be a free agent after 2019, assuming no additional contracts are signed.

 

Thanks, Balta!!

[Lip Man 1]

Which means if he has another good season in 2016 the Sox better be prepared to give him a MAJOR raise because he'll certainly opt out and force the Sox to renegotiate. Something to keep in mind regarding the payroll for 2017 even though Danks and LaRoche will be off the books.

 

Mark

[Balta1701]

Which means if he has another good season in 2016 the Sox better be prepared to give him a MAJOR raise because he'll certainly opt out and force the Sox to renegotiate. Something to keep in mind regarding the payroll for 2017 even though Danks and LaRoche will be off the books.

 

Mark

Although there's no real precedent for a guy like Abreu hitting arbitration 3 times after starting with a $10 million contract, I think we can make some reasonable educated guesses. Typically we see guys in their first arb year jump by $5 million, maybe slightly more but not hugely more. The largest 1st year arb settlement ever was $10 million, but Abreu will already be making that in 2016.

 

Contracts don't go down in arbitration, so we can guarantee Abreu's team will submit a number much above $10 million. Given that there's zero precedent for a "first year arb player" making $20 million, if I had to guess where Abreu's team would submit a number, it would be in the range of $15-17 million - giving him a raise of $5-7 million over his 2016 salary. That's a number they could conceivably win at. If they submitted in the $20 million range for a first year arb player, matching the biggest arb raise ever and also breaking every record in the book, you've got to think they'd lose that case.

 

The White Sox would probably counter with something lower than that. Since there's no precedent for a guy making $15 million as a first year arb player, basically any number the White Sox submit could be something they could win with as long as they don't submit $11 million.

 

The White Sox, of course, never go to actual arbitration with players, so before it gets to the actual hearing they will settle for something in-between, most likely a 1 year deal but possibly they could just guarantee Abreu another $50 million through 2019 to be done with it.

 

Hence, I think a reasonable number they might come down to is somewhere in the $14 million range. Probably not much lower than that, probably not much higher than $15 million. I'd think that given the lack of precedent for his contract, a "$4 million per year jump" wouldn't be an unreasonable mid point. I could of course be underestimating this, but IIRC the league has the option to fire the arbitrator if they feel they've done something totally unreasonable and the league's franchises won't want to totally rewrite the first year arb precedents.

 

My guess at a rough estimate is that Abreu's salary goes something in the range of 2017-$14 million, 2018-$18 million, 2019-$22 million. Maybe there's a million dollars wrong on either side, but if you want to estimate the full team payroll, that's not going to be so wrong that you'll have a bad estimate.

[southsider2k5]

Arbitration is based on comps to other players. What 4th year players have deals in the $15 to $17 million range, or even $11 million, that Abreu could use to get that sort of a number in a hearing?

[Boopa1219]

One of the best contracts in all of baseball.

 

Think about this; If Chris Davis is worth $21.4M (In the eyes of the Orioles at least), how much is Jose Abreu worth?

 

 

[Hamhock]

Ryan Howard is an interesting example for comparison purposes. In his first year of arbitration in 2008, he won and got $10 million (the Phillies offered $7 million), up from $900,000 in 2007.

 

In 2009, they were about to go to arbitration again (Howard's bid was $18 million and the Phillies was $14 million) before the Phillies blinked and signed him to a 3-year $54 million deal.

[LDF]

One of the best contracts in all of baseball.

 

Think about this; If Chris Davis is worth $21.4M (In the eyes of the Orioles at least), how much is Jose Abreu worth?

 

using the advance stats, can someone compare davis vs jose a???

[Dick Allen]

Arbitration is based on comps to other players. What 4th year players have deals in the $15 to $17 million range, or even $11 million, that Abreu could use to get that sort of a number in a hearing?

That is exactly right, and if the record is $10 million, chances are they aren't going to blow by it by much. He would be lucky to get $11 million in arb next year. The two years after that would be a different story.

 

 

The question I have is once he goes to arbitration, does the balance of the contract lose the guarantee?

[southsider2k5]

That is exactly right, and if the record is $10 million, chances are they aren't going to blow by it by much. He would be lucky to get $11 million in arb next year. The two years after that would be a different story.

 

 

The question I have is once he goes to arbitration, does the balance of the contract lose the guarantee?

 

Once he opts out, the original deal is gone. My guess would be if the Sox think this is likely, they would already start talking about a long term deal.

[Balta1701]

Arbitration is based on comps to other players. What 4th year players have deals in the $15 to $17 million range, or even $11 million, that Abreu could use to get that sort of a number in a hearing?

The highest ever first year arb number was $10 million, for Ryan Howard I believe, so blowing past that number like 8 years later seems entirely reasonable. Furthermore, the contract for the previous year isn't "forgotten" in arbitration - they do take into account the guy's previous year salary based on everything we've seen.

[blackmooncreeping]

One of the best contracts in all of baseball.

 

Think about this; If Chris Davis is worth $21.4M (In the eyes of the Orioles at least), how much is Jose Abreu worth?

pretty even comparison, without doing any advanced stat digging. Abreu is a better hitter for average, Davis produces more HR/RBI. Davis is also pretty good with the glove, probably slightly better than Jose.

[southsider2k5]

The highest ever first year arb number was $10 million, for Ryan Howard I believe, so blowing past that number like 8 years later seems entirely reasonable. Furthermore, the contract for the previous year isn't "forgotten" in arbitration - they do take into account the guy's previous year salary based on everything we've seen.

 

It isn't forgotten, but Abreu also has to make the case that he is worth the larger amount of money based on the fact that other similar players are getting paid that. If there are no comps, he won't win.

 

I think the chances of opting out the first year are about zero for this reason. The second year he has a chance are when it could happen. If not the second year, the third year is a virtual certainty based on the assumption that Abreu keeps hitting like Abreu.

[Dick Allen]

The highest ever first year arb number was $10 million, for Ryan Howard I believe, so blowing past that number like 8 years later seems entirely reasonable. Furthermore, the contract for the previous year isn't "forgotten" in arbitration - they do take into account the guy's previous year salary based on everything we've seen.

Howard also hit 105 Homers and drove home 285 the 2 years prior. I really doubt he would opt out of the 2 years of guaranteed money to perhaps get a slight raise in 2017. Like was stated earlier they probably will look at some sort of extension.

[iamshack]

The highest ever first year arb number was $10 million, for Ryan Howard I believe, so blowing past that number like 8 years later seems entirely reasonable. Furthermore, the contract for the previous year isn't "forgotten" in arbitration - they do take into account the guy's previous year salary based on everything we've seen.

Didn't Lincecum put up a higher number?