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The next market inefficiency...2nd/3rd tier pitching


caulfield12

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 01:01 PM)
Gavin Floyd to me is the starter version of Jesse Crain. The setback is coming, but spring training fluff would make it seem like he could win 15. It wouldn't cost anything, so I wouldn't be surprised it happened, but would be very surprised anything really came of it.

 

That entire list is full of guys that probably won't do anything, but are worth a lottery ticket kind of deal. Every once in a while you find a Loaiza. Mostly you find Paulino's.

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QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 01:15 PM)
Sign Floyd to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training and Latos to a 1 year, $1.5 million deal with a crapload of incentives.

 

There you go.

 

That would work if Latos was hurt last year, like Henderson Alvarez. However, he was not, so there is no way he takes that deal. He'll get a year north of 5-6 million with incentives.

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QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 01:15 PM)
Sign Floyd to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training and Latos to a 1 year, $1.5 million deal with a crapload of incentives.

 

There you go.

Latos is going to get f***ton more guaranteed money than that. He put up a 3.72 FIP last year, someone will easily give him $8M+ on a one year deal.

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Latos for $10-12 million (one year)

Parra for $8-10 million (one year)

add Desmond in June for 4 months....$10 million

 

Wouldn't that be much more of an impact because...?

 

1) You're only spending roughly $5 million than on Cespedes

2) You now have credible insurance for injury/non-performance pitching-wise

3) You can get a pick if Latos does really well and/or trade him in June/July

4) Players would have more motivation to perform for bigger FA payoffs in 2017

5) You also have insurance for Saladino...not to mention PR, outfielder (potentially) or DH in the case of LaRoche or Avi flop

6) You don't have to worry about huge financial commitments with back end of Big 3 guys blowing up in your face and blocking efforts to reload/retool like Dunn/LaRoche/Danks deals have effectively done

7) Injury risk is spread across three players rather than just one

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 01:34 PM)
Latos for $10-12 million (one year)

Parra for $8-10 million (one year)

add Desmond in June for 4 months....$10 million

 

Wouldn't that be much more of an impact because...?

 

1) You're only spending roughly $5 million than on Cespedes

2) You now have credible insurance for injury/non-performance pitching-wise

3) You can get a pick if Latos does really well and/or trade him in June/July

4) Players would have more motivation to perform for bigger FA payoffs in 2017

5) You also have insurance for Saladino...not to mention PR, outfielder (potentially) or DH in the case of LaRoche or Avi flop

6) You don't have to worry about huge financial commitments with back end of Big 3 guys blowing up in your face and blocking efforts to reload/retool like Dunn/LaRoche/Danks deals have effectively done

7) Injury risk is spread across three players rather than just one

Why would Desmond remain unsigned until June?

 

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Hasn't everyone said all along Desmond and Fowler were the two most likely candidates to go unsigned into the regular season due to the QO picks attached?

 

Fine, just bring back Alexei Ramirez at that time.

 

So in June, you'd have Ramirez, Latos and Parra or Cespedes.

 

I'm also assuming at least one starting pitcher will miss time, so you avoid having to start Turner or Beck.

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 02:01 PM)
Gavin Floyd to me is the starter version of Jesse Crain. The setback is coming, but spring training fluff would make it seem like he could win 15. It wouldn't cost anything, so I wouldn't be surprised it happened, but would be very surprised anything really came of it.

Isnt that the role we had Brad Penny in last year?

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 01:52 PM)
Hasn't everyone said all along Desmond and Fowler were the two most likely candidates to go unsigned into the regular season due to the QO picks attached?

 

Fine, just bring back Alexei Ramirez at that time.

 

So in June, you'd have Ramirez, Latos and Parra or Cespedes.

 

I'm also assuming at least one starting pitcher will miss time, so you avoid having to start Turner or Beck.

I will 100% take Cespedes, E. Johnson, & Saladino over Parra, Latos, & Ramirez. Not even a debate for me.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 02:08 PM)
So you're 100% confident Johnson and Saladino will keep their spots all season long then?

And you're 100% confident Latos would be good in the AL, Parra's fall off in Baltimore was just a mirage, and Desmond will be one of the first players to sign in June and live up to his contract. $28 million, which as pointed out would be very low, 100% confident. Maybe that is what the Royals will do, and they will start selling off parts at the deadline. If they can't offer Gordon market rate after 2 WS appearances, they will be totally screwed if they don't make the playoffs and get that additional revenue. No way those remaining sign extensions, and I'm sure the great leader Sal Perez is still a little miffed the Royals didn't do what you told us they would do, rip up his contract and give him something more appropriate for one of the greatest leaders of all time.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 02:08 PM)
So you're 100% confident Johnson and Saladino will keep their spots all season long then?

Not at all, but I think Cespedes is significantly better than Parra and that Latos & Ramirez aren't sure things either. I'll happily take one impact player and two question marks than one mediocre played and two question marks with a bit more certainty.

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QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 01:54 PM)
Why in the world would Parra sign that deal? He's going to get something like 3/40, yet you project 1/8-10?

 

For the same reason every outfielder has seemingly come down in price by 25%...too much supply, and too many additional outfielders available simultaneously at discount on the trade market.

 

How can he get that much based on his 2015 season? Especially from an AL team...?

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 02:08 PM)
So you're 100% confident Johnson and Saladino will keep their spots all season long then?

No, and that's risky. The question is what's more risky - a full season of Cespedes and rolling the dice with EJ and Saladino (with Beck-Turner having to be possibly be counted on for 5-12 starts), or a full season of Latos, Parra and Ramirez, where Beck/Turner might have to be turned to anyway if Latos can't stay healthy again and EJ fails.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 02:12 PM)
And you're 100% confident Latos would be good in the AL, Parra's fall off in Baltimore was just a mirage, and Desmond will be one of the first players to sign in June and live up to his contract. $28 million, which as pointed out would be very low, 100% confident. Maybe that is what the Royals will do, and they will start selling off parts at the deadline. If they can't offer Gordon market rate after 2 WS appearances, they will be totally screwed if they don't make the playoffs and get that additional revenue. No way those remaining sign extensions, and I'm sure the great leader Sal Perez is still a little miffed the Royals didn't do what you told us they would do, rip up his contract and give him something more appropriate for one of the greatest leaders of all time.

 

Finished?

 

That was constructive.

 

How about you come up with a back-up plan for when/if the Big 3 fall through for $30 million.

 

You sure enjoy being sarcastic but never provide anything other than general platitudes, lectures or generic comments such as it would be nice to get Gordon or Cespedes. Quite insightful.

 

 

And when have Boras clients not gone on the open market and signed hometown discounts, by the way?

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 09:13 PM)
For the same reason every outfielder has seemingly come down in price by 25%...too much supply, and too many additional outfielders available simultaneously at discount on the trade market.

 

How can he get that much based on his 2015 season? Especially from an AL team...?

 

Which outfielder's price has come down 25%?

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 02:22 PM)
Finished?

 

That was constructive.

 

How about you come up with a back-up plan for when/if the Big 3 fall through for $30 million.

 

You sure enjoy being sarcastic but never provide anything other than general platitudes, lectures or generic comments such as it would be nice to get Gordon or Cespedes. Quite insightful.

 

 

And when have Boras clients not gone on the open market and signed hometown discounts, by the way?

I just hope someone keeps a list of all your recommendations. Latos, Desmond, Duensing, Parra. You name enough crappy players one is bound to hit for you and you can remind us all summer. I have already said what I would do. With names.

 

And as stated, the Royals, if they can't afford Gordon now, are screwed. They should start rebuilding immediately.

Edited by Dick Allen
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