lostfan Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Kaine is about as interesting as a jar of mayo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoSox05 Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Just think of all the fun we could of had watching Elizabeth Warren debate Mike Pence. Nope Clinton has to run straight to the center and pick Kaine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pettie4sox Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Would Warren even want to be her VP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Neutering Warren by making her VP would be the worst. I don't want a John Kerry situation either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lostfan Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 12:35 PM) Would Warren even want to be her VP? I don't think she's necessarily been lobbying for it, but if asked, I'm about 90% sure she'd say yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve9347 Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 11:40 AM) I don't think she's necessarily been lobbying for it, but if asked, I'm about 90% sure she'd say yes Oh come on - she's popping up everywhere suddenly. She'd snatch it up. So, is it Kaine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 It is actually a pretty savvy move, based on the polls I am sure. Look, there is a gigantic chasm between Clinton and Trump. So much so that a guy like Gary Johnson is polling with double digits simply based on the fact that so many people can't stand either major candidate. If you pick a person towards the center, instead of further left, maybe you dig back some of those centrists. A left wing VP gains you nothing. What are those people going to vote for Trump? Johnson? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinilaw08 Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 11:03 AM) It is actually a pretty savvy move, based on the polls I am sure. Look, there is a gigantic chasm between Clinton and Trump. So much so that a guy like Gary Johnson is polling with double digits simply based on the fact that so many people can't stand either major candidate. If you pick a person towards the center, instead of further left, maybe you dig back some of those centrists. A left wing VP gains you nothing. What are those people going to vote for Trump? Johnson? lol. Warren would have big appeal with Sanders voters who are one of the wild cards on the left. With that being said, I think Elizabeth Warren is extremely effective in the role that she's in. Making her VP probably reduces her influence, it doesn't strengthen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 QUOTE (illinilaw08 @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 12:06 PM) Warren would have big appeal with Sanders voters who are one of the wild cards on the left. With that being said, I think Elizabeth Warren is extremely effective in the role that she's in. Making her VP probably reduces her influence, it doesn't strengthen it. Sure. And who are those Sanders voters going to vote for if they don't get their way? The centrists are already looking elsewhere. What is the threat from the left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lostfan Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 01:03 PM) It is actually a pretty savvy move, based on the polls I am sure. Look, there is a gigantic chasm between Clinton and Trump. So much so that a guy like Gary Johnson is polling with double digits simply based on the fact that so many people can't stand either major candidate. If you pick a person towards the center, instead of further left, maybe you dig back some of those centrists. A left wing VP gains you nothing. What are those people going to vote for Trump? Johnson? lol. Sure, but it's the left wing base that she needs to shore up. There are a lot of people who call themselves #BernieOrBust who talk like they're democratic socialists but they're actually anarcho-capitalists (mostly white males who talk like they're voting for Trump because it can't be Bernie), but those aren't the people I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lostfan Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 01:08 PM) Sure. And who are those Sanders voters going to vote for if they don't get their way? The centrists are already looking elsewhere. What is the threat from the left? They just won't vote. Voter turnout for Dems is everything. With the probable exception of this election, Republicans always always always show up to polls. Dems, especially the left flank, are flaky. Contrary to popular belief it isn't "independents" who decide elections, there's not this large group of people who flip ideologies they vote for every election. It's just whether more Democrats vote than Republicans that election, or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pettie4sox Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Are you saying most of the country are democrats and if they decide to show up, Republicans have no chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrimsonWeltall Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 06:08 PM) Sure. And who are those Sanders voters going to vote for if they don't get their way? Given how many of them are young people, they're probably going to vote for sitting at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoSox05 Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Sanders really did well against Clinton with younger voters. Voters under 30. I feel like those are the voters she needs to energize and get out to the polls in November. They aren't voting Trump, but they may stay home or use Johnson as a protest vote. You could use Kerry and Gore of examples of candidates that tried to get the moderate vote by adding very centrist VP and I don't think it worked for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Ugh, Kaine's a safe pick but I was praying for Warren v. Pence debates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lostfan Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 (edited) QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 01:15 PM) Are you saying most of the country are democrats and if they decide to show up, Republicans have no chance? Not exactly but there's a direct correlation between high turnout with Democratic victories and low turnout in Republican victories. It's not exact obviously but it's a pretty good indicator I am too lazy to look up the exact numbers but it goes roughly: 2006: about 40%, Dems take House 2008: over 60% (modern record. Democratic tidal wave) 2010: turnout decreases back to around 40%, Republicans take back House in landslide 2012: turnout falls from 2008 but Dems still do very well 2014: lowest in modern history, Republican landslide edit: on second thought, yes, there are definitely far more registered Dems than registered Republicans, for what that's worth. Edited July 22, 2016 by Ezio Auditore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lostfan Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 QUOTE (GoSox05 @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 01:20 PM) Sanders really did well against Clinton with younger voters. Voters under 30. I feel like those are the voters she needs to energize and get out to the polls in November. They aren't voting Trump, but they may stay home or use Johnson as a protest vote. You could use Kerry and Gore of examples of candidates that tried to get the moderate vote by adding very centrist VP and I don't think it worked for them. The under 30 crowd is notoriously hard to get out to vote. Obama's pretty much the only one to unlock this code. So naturally the Dems didn't even bother trying to copy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 12:13 PM) They just won't vote. Voter turnout for Dems is everything. With the probable exception of this election, Republicans always always always show up to polls. Dems, especially the left flank, are flaky. Contrary to popular belief it isn't "independents" who decide elections, there's not this large group of people who flip ideologies they vote for every election. It's just whether more Democrats vote than Republicans that election, or less. That's just it. Republicans aren't showing up this election. There are a lot of them looking elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrimsonWeltall Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 05:26 PM) That's just it. Republicans aren't showing up this election. There are a lot of them looking elsewhere. They may be looking, but that doesn't mean they won't ultimately vote for Trump. Republican voting blocks (particularly senior citizens and Evangelicals) are pretty reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenksismyhero Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 12:26 PM) That's just it. Republicans aren't showing up this election. There are a lot of them looking elsewhere. I bet the numbers will ultimately surprise here come election day. I think Trump gets a huge bump from the "anti-Trump, but REALLY anti-Hillary" group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenksismyhero Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 QUOTE (CrimsonWeltall @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 12:34 PM) They may be looking, but that doesn't mean they won't ultimately vote for Trump. Republican voting blocks (particularly senior citizens and Evangelicals) are pretty reliable. Yeah but to Lost's point, those people don't come out when the candidate isn't conservative enough, just like the young don't come out for liberals unless there's a special reason (change you can believe in!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lostfan Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 QUOTE (JenksIsMyHero @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 02:05 PM) Yeah but to Lost's point, those people don't come out when the candidate isn't conservative enough, just like the young don't come out for liberals unless there's a special reason (change you can believe in!) They do, though. They will talk about how they are unhappy with the nominee, like with McCain and Romney, but then by summer they're a lock to vote for the nominee. I don't know what will happen with Trump though, this is kind of unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrimsonWeltall Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 QUOTE (JenksIsMyHero @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 07:05 PM) Yeah but to Lost's point, those people don't come out when the candidate isn't conservative enough, just like the young don't come out for liberals unless there's a special reason (change you can believe in!) I don't think that's true. If you look at the 18-29 turnout per election, there are huge swings (and they're all but useless in midterm elections). That isn't present in the reliable Republican groups. Even if they don't like Trump, they'll favor his SCOTUS picks and any chance to overturn Roe and Obergefell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Is Clinton really friday media dumping her VP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoSox05 Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Sounds like she had to pull back announcing it because of the shootings in Germany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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