2016 Democratic Thread

[bmags]

Iowa uses an independent commission and it works very well.

[StrangeSox]

Iowa uses an independent commission and it works very well.

 

I would be happy with an SC ruling that found it to be unconstitutionally disenfranchising to do anything but that, they'd be able to get their with less leaps of logic/bulls*** than Shelby County.

[StrangeSox]

This is why, even though states like Illinois and Maryland are gerrymandered for Democrats, I don't really care that much about it. If they weren't gerrymandered it'd be EVEN MORE lopsided. The House was intended to be sort of a reactive barometer to the national mood and the Senate was a check against that. We don't need two Senates.

 

The Senate was the place for the farmer gentry to hold veto power over anything the rabble wanted to do, Madison was pretty explicit about that. Abolish the least demographic body in the Western world imo. You don't exactly see pure parliamentary systems like Canada or Britain going on crazy whiplash policy roller coasters, but they can actually implement policies they ran on because they don't have five thousand veto points in the system.

[lostfan]

HOLY s*** this electoral map looks really ugly for Republicans. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

 

This is the part of the election where polls actually start giving you useful information - Clinton is already in Obama 2008 territory and it's still the first week of August. Obama didn't get this far ahead until late October. The map hasn't even bottomed out yet, this all happened in a week. Obama had 365 EV, right now, Clinton would win 354 (IN going blue that year was a fluke), and GA and AZ have been swinging blue (which is unheard of). The debates could change this of course but I see no reason to think Trump will all of a sudden sharpen up and get his s*** together, this isn't the Republican primary we're talking about anymore.

 

This is probably similar to what it looked like trying to run against Reagan in the 80s.

[StrangeSox]

HOLY s*** this electoral map looks really ugly for Republicans. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

 

This is the part of the election where polls actually start giving you useful information - Clinton is already in Obama 2008 territory and it's still the first week of August. Obama didn't get this far ahead until late October. The map hasn't even bottomed out yet, this all happened in a week. Obama had 365 EV, right now, Clinton would win 354 (IN going blue that year was a fluke), and GA and AZ have been swinging blue (which is unheard of). The debates could change this of course but I see no reason to think Trump will all of a sudden sharpen up and get his s*** together, this isn't the Republican primary we're talking about anymore.

 

This is probably similar to what it looked like trying to run against Reagan in the 80s.

 

From a story on the security briefings the candidates receive

Only George McGovern in 1972 and Walter Mondale in 1984 did not receive the briefing. McGovern and the briefers had scheduling conflicts that couldn't be resolved and Mondale turned it down because he didn't think he was going to need it because he didn't think he was going to win, Preiss said.

 

poor Mondale

[bmags]

Georgia will swing back, probably next week. Not buying it. Still pretty sure we are in a bump.

 

On election day I'm fairly certain we'll be walking to the polls with at least a "Clinton 46%, Trump 42%" scenario. Problem for trump is PA is looking like toast, and he already seems to have lost CO.

[StrangeSox]

Georgia will swing back, probably next week. Not buying it. Still pretty sure we are in a bump.

 

On election day I'm fairly certain we'll be walking to the polls with at least a "Clinton 46%, Trump 42%" scenario. Problem for trump is PA is looking like toast, and he already seems to have lost CO.

 

Don't forget VA! Clinton's also drastically reduced ad buys there.

 

 

Spooks for Clinton

 

During a 33-year career at the Central Intelligence Agency, I served presidents of both parties — three Republicans and three Democrats. I was at President George W. Bush’s side when we were attacked on Sept. 11; as deputy director of the agency, I was with President Obama when we killed Osama bin Laden in 2011.

 

I am neither a registered Democrat nor a registered Republican. In my 40 years of voting, I have pulled the lever for candidates of both parties. As a government official, I have always been silent about my preference for president.

 

No longer. On Nov. 8, I will vote for Hillary Clinton. Between now and then, I will do everything I can to ensure that she is elected as our 45th president.

 

Two strongly held beliefs have brought me to this decision. First, Mrs. Clinton is highly qualified to be commander in chief. I trust she will deliver on the most important duty of a president — keeping our nation safe. Second, Donald J. Trump is not only unqualified for the job, but he may well pose a threat to our national security.

 

Doesn't this dope know that actually Clinton is unqualified because reasons?

 

[lostfan]

We are still in convention-bounce territory but the difference is Trump actually came out of convention season with a net negative, so Hillary's numbers opened way up. The numbers will narrow back like they usually do but where to?

 

Hillary isn't winning the general election by 12 points (probably, who knows what other permanent damage Trump will do to himself in the next 90 days) but Obama won by 7 and won by a 2:1 electoral margin and Dems came out of that with 60 senate seats and a huge majority in the House. (that they'd later f*** off but that's another topic)

[StrangeSox]

We'll re-normalize around Clinton +6/8 is my gut feeling, but as you said, who knows how many more times Trump will shoot himself in the foot over the next 92 days. I'd put the over/under on that around 45 if we count a whole debate's worth of f*** ups as one incident.

 

Like you said though, people started coming around on Clinton after the convention. Her favorables still aren't great, but she's getting close to at least being even. If you're even or -5 and your opponent is -35/-45, you're going to walk away with the thing and that's before the Democrats' general EC advantage they have right now. A couple more states drop into the "safe" category for Clinton, and we're pretty much calling the election in August. Obama never had a showing like the week Clinton just had even in 2008.

 

edit: 538's forecast doesn't show GA going to Clinton, by the way. She's approaching 350 without getting Georgia. Georgia feels like the Democrats' version of Pennsylvania, though--the state they're always hoping that they can actually flip this time but lol nope it's gonna state red

Edited August 5, 2016 by StrangeSox

[lostfan]

Don't forget VA! Clinton's also drastically reduced ad buys there.

 

 

Spooks for Clinton

 

 

 

Doesn't this dope know that actually Clinton is unqualified because reasons?

VA used to be a deep red state but it's almost a safe state for Dems in presidential years now.

 

Let's give Hillary right now the states that are either already locked up for Dems or have trended Dem in the last several elections: NH, PA, MI, WI, IA. That puts her at 257. CO and VA are just about out of reach for Trump right now too, and we are at 281. Right there, before we are even talking about OH, VA, FL, NC, or NV, the election is over.

[lostfan]

We'll re-normalize around Clinton +6/8 is my gut feeling, but as you said, who knows how many more times Trump will shoot himself in the foot over the next 92 days. I'd put the over/under on that around 45 if we count a whole debate's worth of f*** ups as one incident.

 

Like you said though, people started coming around on Clinton after the convention. Her favorables still aren't great, but she's getting close to at least being even. If you're even or -5 and your opponent is -35/-45, you're going to walk away with the thing and that's before the Democrats' general EC advantage they have right now. A couple more states drop into the "safe" category for Clinton, and we're pretty much calling the election in August. Obama never had a showing like the week Clinton just had even in 2008.

 

edit: 538's forecast doesn't show GA going to Clinton, by the way. She's approaching 350 without getting Georgia. Georgia feels like the Democrats' version of Pennsylvania, though--the state they're always hoping that they can actually flip this time but lol nope it's gonna state red

IIRC the biggest lead Obama had nationally in any poll was 9 points. Hillary's been kissing double digits.

[StrangeSox]

IIRC the biggest lead Obama had nationally in any poll was 9 points. Hillary's been kissing double digits.

 

Per some little twitter summary I saw, he had a +10 on McCain exactly once. Hillary's already had 2 with 2 more at +9.

 

Enjoy this picture

 

[pettie4sox]

Bovada has Clinton -350.

 

Yeesh.

[lostfan]

Bovada has Clinton -350.

 

Yeesh.

I can't read betting lines. what does this mean?

[StrangeSox]

Trump admits he didn't actually see a TOP SECRET video of Iranians unloading cash he swore he saw multiple times, instead saw the same January hostage transfer from Switzerland that was on all the news networks.

 

Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine hit Trump on Friday for the video claim, saying he seemss "confused" on CBS' "This Morning," in an interview taped before Trump backtracked.

 

"I have no idea what he's talking about. It (the video) doesn't exist. He might be thinking about Iran Contra from like 35 years ago or something like this," Kaine said.

 

He pointed to Trump's recent criticism of Kaine, who Trump said in a late-July news conference "did a terrible job in New Jersey" -- despite Kaine being a governor and senator from Virginia, not New Jersey. Kaine said Trump must have confused him with Tom Kean, who was New Jersey's governor until 1990.

 

"He was confusing it with a situation from two or three decades ago. Maybe that's what he's doing with this bogus video claim," Kaine said.

Asked if he thinks Trump is confused, Kaine said: "I absolutely think he's confused."

 

Not sure if that actually rises to a Trump-level gaffe though.

 

The Daily 202: Lessons from my search for Donald Trump's personal giving to charity

 

So I kept looking, starting with the individual charities that Trump seemed closest to. He'd attended their galas. Praised them on Twitter. Given them cash from the Trump Foundation's dwindling pot of money.

 

I've tried 259 of those charities so far.

 

I've found one gift, out of Trump's own pocket, between 2008 and this May.

 

In 2009, he apparently gave a gift worth less than $10,000 to the Police Athletic League in New York. (In May, under pressure from the media, Trump made good on his own pledge to give $1 million to a veterans' charity).

 

But in all those dead ends, I’ve learned a few lessons about Trump, and the way he seems to view charity.

 

So here’s what I found, when I wasn’t finding anything:

 

1. Trump does see charity — or at least the appearance of charity — as an important part of his public image

[...]

2. But Trump seems to want to acquire his reputation for charity as cheaply as possible, and with other people's money if he can

[..]

3. Trump is left with a charitable legacy that is small and scattershot, with little sustained commitment to any one cause

 

Edited August 5, 2016 by StrangeSox

[lasttriptotulsa]

I can't read betting lines. what does this mean?

 

Heavy favorite. You would have to bet $350 to win $100. A +350 would be just the opposite. Bet $100 to win $350.

[pettie4sox]

Heavy favorite. You would have to bet $350 to win $100. A +350 would be just the opposite. Bet $100 to win $350.

 

Yep. For example, my guess is 4 years ago for the election it would have been like -120 to -140 for Obama versus Romney.

[StrangeSox]

Spooks for Clinton

 

buried in that article:

 

In fact, many Muslim Americans play critical roles in protecting our country, including the man, whom I cannot identify, who ran the C.I.A.’s Counterterrorism Center for nearly a decade and who I believe is most responsible for keeping America safe since the Sept. 11 attacks.

[StrangeSox]

Trump announced his economic policy team.

 

 

 

 

The team is all-male, all-white and contains no economists lmao

 

It does contain noted idiot and man who is always wrong Stephen "Oops" Moore, at least.

Edited August 5, 2016 by StrangeSox

[StrangeSox]

538 got a hold of a Trump internal strategy memo from the primary. Their strategy worked, but not for the reasons they thought it would, and it seems to have left them crippled for the GE.

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-...nlikely-voters/

 

"Most presidential campaigns spend their time and money appealing to people who vote regularly in elections. Not Donald Trump. According to a Trump campaign memo obtained by FiveThirtyEight, the campaign pursued a highly unorthodox strategy of courting unlikely voters during the primaries, focusing on people who rarely participate in GOP primary elections. The campaign relied on free media, including Trump’s frequent TV appearances, to turn out regular voters, according to the memo.

 

But survey and voter data shows that Trump won the Republican nomination thanks in large part to Republicans who typically vote in general elections, not by bringing people entirely disconnected from the electoral process to the polls. As Trump heads into the general election, the campaign’s thinking during the primaries, and the ad-hoc process by which it built an operation to target and reach out to voters using data, may offer clues about how it will approach voter turnout in the fall. Trump’s primary success does not necessarily mean that he can win the general election with a similar strategy.

 

“Based on an internal analysis of our own modeling data and third-party research, and considering the exceptionalism of our candidate, I advise that we put one-hundred percent of our organizational effort into enfranchising the conventionally low propensity voters that support our candidate,” the memo from former Trump campaign staffer Matt Braynard begins."

 

“It’s crazy,” said one Republican strategist who has worked on national campaigns but declined to speak on the record for fear of upsetting the Trump organization. The campaign might have believed that its success in the primaries was due to turning out nontraditional voters, the strategist continued, “but they were a communications operation,” a reference to Trump’s unprecedented dominance of TV and social media news cycles. “The message trumps the turnout,” the strategist said.

 

Indeed, according to data from SurveyMonkey and Catalist based on 14 early primary states, 88 percent of those who voted for Trump in the primary voted in the 2012 presidential election, suggesting that his supporters were more or less standard Republican voters (at least in general elections for president; some may have been first-time participants in this year’s Republican primary). Eighty-eight percent of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 primary supporters turned out in the 2012 general election as well. The Trump campaign did, however, have reasons for going after voters who hadn’t participated in Republican primaries before — primary season analysis showed Trump with the support of registered Democrats who leaned toward Republicans, a slice of the electorate that has been characterized as feeling alienated from both parties in recent years.

[bmags]

Shocked./green

[StrangeSox]

More on the "Donald Trump is extremely creepy towards Ivanka and has been for decades" front

 

https://twitter.com/chrismassie/status/7616...src=twsrc%5Etfw

 

 

 

there's this one too

 

 

just so they're all together, here's probably the creepiest pose with them sitting next to a statue of two parrots f***ing

 

"Trump wants to bang Ivanka" was also on the "OK" list for his CC Roast, the only thing he objected to was any jokes whatsoever about not being as wealthy as he claims.

 

and of course the borderline one from the RNC

 

 

 

also

 

Trump's favorite thing he has in common with Ivanka

Trump: If Ivanka wasn't my daughter, I'd be dating her Edited August 5, 2016 by StrangeSox

[bmags]

God what journalist wrote that in the first place. That's revolting.

[StrangeSox]

Whoever wrote that is definitely a pedo

[greg775]

Bovada has Clinton -350.

 

Yeesh.

Trump should drop out now. Vegas is never wrong on something this important. This means the race is over and there's no reason for Donald to even proceed. He's defeated. Should drop out and give somebody else a chance.