2016 Democratic Thread

[bmags]

China:

1) wants north korea to be stable and an ally

2) doesn't want it saber rattling in region

 

in that order. 1 is more important than 2. They don't want 2, but they don't care enough to really force them to stop.

[lostfan]

The entire basis of North Korea's anomosity towards the U.S. is that they want their sovereignty recognized and a formal promise that the U.S. will never attack them. The U.S. ignores them, because they're a bunch of s***heads, so they do provocative things to get attention and force the U.S. to bargain with them. When their stunts lose effectiveness they have to do something more provocative the next time. They never actually follow up on these threats though (mostly because they can't, partly because China has to grab them by the collar).

 

Threatening them with aggression is literally the last possible thing you'd want to do.

[bmags]

He's a really strong leader thouhg, you gotta respect that. Has really high approval ratings.

[southsider2k5]

The biggest danger with NK is them doing exactly what Pakistan did with their nuclear technology. The big problem is NK needs the money, a whole lot of countries and organizations out there who would love to have the technology.

[lostfan]

He's a really strong leader thouhg, you gotta respect that. Has really high approval ratings.

I always think it's funny when people say this. Of course Putin is a strong leader! He's basically a dictator and he's either killed or banned his opposition, made all media state-controlled, and ended private polling in his country. That's the whole point of being a dictator! To want to emulate this says... a lot

[StrangeSox]

I always think it's funny when people say this. Of course Putin is a strong leader! He's basically a dictator and he's either killed or banned his opposition, made all media state-controlled, and ended private polling in his country. That's the whole point of being a dictator! To want to emulate this says... a lot

 

A whole bunch of journalists have been murdered over there, and 90% of the cases are "unsolved"

 

Speaking of state-controlled media, Donald Trump was talking with Larry King on RT America yesterday. Didn't know Larry had fallen that far.

[bmags]

The biggest danger with NK is them doing exactly what Pakistan did with their nuclear technology. The big problem is NK needs the money, a whole lot of countries and organizations out there who would love to have the technology.

 

They are not feckless but the best option is to continue to monitor them, isolate them, make things difficult for them to do everything. But unless China says "yes we are fine with intervention and rebuilding" then it isn't going to happen.

[southsider2k5]

They are not feckless but the best option is to continue to monitor them, isolate them, make things difficult for them to do everything. But unless China says "yes we are fine with intervention and rebuilding" then it isn't going to happen.

 

The longer they are isolated, the better the chances of their selling off technology is. They will become more and more desperate for hard cash. I see no reason to think they wouldn't sell the tech.

[lostfan]

The longer they are isolated, the better the chances of their selling off technology is. They will become more and more desperate for hard cash. I see no reason to think they wouldn't sell the tech.

They're not really big on relying on the outside. That's their national identity (juche, self-reliance)

[southsider2k5]

They're not really big on relying on the outside. That's their national identity (juche, self-reliance)

 

Except for how they actually got their nuclear technology...

[bmags]

I always think it's funny when people say this. Of course Putin is a strong leader! He's basically a dictator and he's either killed or banned his opposition, made all media state-controlled, and ended private polling in his country. That's the whole point of being a dictator! To want to emulate this says... a lot

 

It's just funny that outputs don't matter in that equation. Doesn't matter that Russia's economy has tanked, that businesses are not investing in it for fear of gov't thuggery taking it over, that they are more isolated than ever.

 

All that matters is maintains his power through force. That's strength!

 

Their psy ops, intel, cold war tools, they ARE all impressive. Their disruption with minimal means IS impressive. But, I don't know, I'd rather have a functioning economy and free gov't. My pref.

[southsider2k5]

It's just funny that outputs don't matter in that equation. Doesn't matter that Russia's economy has tanked, that businesses are not investing in it for fear of gov't thuggery taking it over, that they are more isolated than ever.

 

All that matters is maintains his power through force. That's strength!

 

Their psy ops, intel, cold war tools, they ARE all impressive. Their disruption with minimal means IS impressive. But, I don't know, I'd rather have a functioning economy and free gov't. My pref.

 

Russia's economy has taken two really big hits simultaneously. The collapse in commodities prices, and the economic isolation due to the Ukraine stuff are just killing them.

[StrangeSox]

WikiLeaks release excludes evidence of €2 billion transfer from Syria to Russia

[Quin]

WikiLeaks release excludes evidence of €2 billion transfer from Syria to Russia

 

No agendas to be found. None at all.

[bmags]

Except for how they actually got their nuclear technology...

 

Right, not saying they are harmless, but forceful removal is not an option. Geographically they are easier to handle than Pakistan. China is not irrational. They don't want a west-backed full korean peninsula next to them, or an anarchy they have to take care of. They don't care enough about nuclear NK to force an issue with NK over this, but if NK ever starts stepping on China's toes than we may see movement.

[StrangeSox]

To be fair, any of us would go crazy if we had spent the entirety of the last several years trapped in two rooms in the Ecuadorian embassy, never being able to step outside.

[southsider2k5]

Right, not saying they are harmless, but forceful removal is not an option. Geographically they are easier to handle than Pakistan. China is not irrational. They don't want a west-backed full korean peninsula next to them, or an anarchy they have to take care of. They don't care enough about nuclear NK to force an issue with NK over this, but if NK ever starts stepping on China's toes than we may see movement.

 

The problem that this has been a situation that has been festering for a long time now, and what we are doing isn't working.

[Jenksismyhero]

The problem that this has been a situation that has been festering for a long time now, and what we are doing isn't working.

 

It's a total kick the can down the road mentality there. There's no easy solution, but doing nothing and watching them continue to build more sophisticated bombs and missiles to deploy those bombs isn't a sound strategy.

[southsider2k5]

It's a total kick the can down the road mentality there. There's no easy solution, but doing nothing and watching them continue to build more sophisticated bombs and missiles to deploy those bombs isn't a sound strategy.

 

Especially because they are a huge proliferation threat.

[StrangeSox]

It's a total kick the can down the road mentality there. There's no easy solution, but doing nothing and watching them continue to build more sophisticated bombs and missiles to deploy those bombs isn't a sound strategy.

 

"Doing something" forceful means pissing off China and probably sacrificing millions of South Koreans in Seoul, though.

[southsider2k5]

"Doing something" forceful means pissing off China and probably sacrificing millions of South Koreans in Seoul, though.

 

Doing the opposite could also mean nukes in the hands of other nations or even terrorist organizations if they have enough money.

[Jenksismyhero]

"Doing something" forceful means pissing off China and probably sacrificing millions of South Koreans in Seoul, though.

 

Yeah and I wouldn't mind that. How much of China's economy do we account for? It's time to start exerting some pressure on them to kick NK into gear.

 

edit: obviously aimed at the first part of your post, not the second!

Edited September 9, 2016 by JenksIsMyHero

[caulfield12]

A whole bunch of journalists have been murdered over there, and 90% of the cases are "unsolved"

 

Speaking of state-controlled media, Donald Trump was talking with Larry King on RT America yesterday. Didn't know Larry had fallen that far.

 

And his 7th or 8th wife in her early 50s recently cheated on him...considering yet another divorce. Probably needs the money.

 

Almost want to say poor guy, but bybthis point, hecshould have learned his lesson.

[StrangeSox]

Yeah and I wouldn't mind that. How much of China's economy do we account for? It's time to start exerting some pressure on them to kick NK into gear.

 

I think a few million SK's would mind being killed. edit: lol, your edit covers that

 

Plus the risk isn't just that there would be economic concerns but that something with China could turn hot, which would be awful.

 

I'm not too concerned about terrorists aquiring nuclear weapons because actually transporting, maintaining and using them is something that's really more in the realm of what a nation-state can do, not what guerrilla-style terrorist organizations could do. Even NK's nukes aren't really a threat to anyone unless they can put it on a rocket. Proliferation to other nations would be a bigger concern, but I'm not sure who else wants them at this point that would be interested in NK's tech. They're both a powerful asset and a huge albatross. This is mostly just spitballing though!

Edited September 9, 2016 by StrangeSox

[caulfield12]

Yeah and I wouldn't mind that. How much of China's economy do we account for? It's time to start exerting some pressure on them to kick NK into gear.

 

Less than Europe. Something like 20-25%.

 

If they really wanted to go after China on human rights/treatment of Xinjiang Muslim separatists, everyone whiffed in Hangzhou.

 

The South China Sea is a different story...even India is becoming proactive and aggressive in the face of Chinese expansionism, especially the New Silk Road project and port building on the doorstep of India. Not to mention the new AIIB bank China formed to compete with the West.

 

Chinese leadership is much more concerned about consolidating power inside of China and their expansion plans (which pump money into the GDP) than anything North Korea is doing.

Edited September 9, 2016 by caulfield12