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2016 Democratic Thread


southsider2k5

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QUOTE (brett05 @ Oct 13, 2016 -> 03:11 PM)
1) Majority does not make right

2) Lots of news coming out about the corruption of...the news.

 

1) Having a sound methodology and past history of accuracy makes is very likely to be right.

2) Pollsters have every motivation to be as accurate as possible. If they're inaccurate, they become irrelevant.

2b) If the news can't be trusted, then how can you trust this news about the news not being trustworthy???

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QUOTE (brett05 @ Oct 13, 2016 -> 10:11 AM)
1) Majority does not make right

2) Lots of news coming out about the corruption of...the news.

 

In case you missed it, Nate Cohn dove into the LA Times poll's methodolgy and data and found this:

 

How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages

 

That "poll" simply doesn't function in the same way that normal polling does. Being aware of the limitations doesn't mean you can't still think that Trump will win or has a better shot than the polls indicate for whatever reason, but don't let yourself be duped.

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QUOTE (CrimsonWeltall @ Oct 13, 2016 -> 10:18 AM)
1) Having a sound methodology and past history of accuracy makes is very likely to be right.

2) Pollsters have every motivation to be as accurate as possible. If they're inaccurate, they become irrelevant.

2b) If the news can't be trusted, then how can you trust this news about the news not being trustworthy???

 

Herding happens, and so does some pollsters knowing they have crap methodology that will show big swings or outliers that will get media coverage, but when it's literally every single poll, state and national, versus one with a new and questionable methodology that can be significantly impacted by a single respondent and which even that one had it tied yesterday, things aren't exactly looking good.

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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 13, 2016 -> 11:22 AM)
Herding happens, and so does some pollsters knowing they have crap methodology that will show big swings or outliers that will get media coverage, but when it's literally every single poll, state and national, versus one with a new and questionable methodology that can be significantly impacted by a single respondent and which even that one had it tied yesterday, things aren't exactly looking good.

This happened to Gallup in 2012, they failed so bad they got out of the horse-race polling business altogether.

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QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Oct 13, 2016 -> 10:24 AM)
This happened to Gallup in 2012, they failed so bad they got out of the horse-race polling business altogether.

 

And we're rewarded with an absurdly big role in a presidential debate

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A judge issued a probable cause criminal summons to Chris Christie over the Bridgegate scandal. Multiple former advisers/staff have testified that he was aware of what was going on before and during the closures.

 

https://twitter.com/brian4NY/status/7865674...src=twsrc%5Etfw

 

Can one of you fancy lawyer types explain the implications of "probable cause criminal summons"?

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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 13, 2016 -> 05:38 PM)
Lou Dobbs tweeted out the personal contact information of one of Trump's accusers.

 

https://twitter.com/polly/status/7865998201...src=twsrc%5Etfw

 

Gee, it sure is a mystery why women are hesitant to come forward.

 

I hope that woman has a safe place to stay and gets rid of that phone number immediately.

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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 13, 2016 -> 09:38 AM)
Lou Dobbs tweeted out the personal contact information of one of Drumpf's accusers.

 

https://twitter.com/polly/status/7865998201...src=twsrc%5Etfw

 

Gee, it sure is a mystery why women are hesitant to come forward.

 

How does this not get this idiot fired? How irresponsible.

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Trump's in full-blown conspiracy paranoia land right now. (((Globalists))), (((banks))), and the media are all conspiring to stop him from making America great again.

 

If this is true, thank you Illuminati for ensuring that the fascist orange baby man does not become President.

 

He's also smearing his accusers in a way that can be perceived as a threat against anyone else coming forward.

 

Edited by StrangeSox
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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 13, 2016 -> 10:36 AM)
Drumpf's in full-blown conspiracy paranoia land right now. (((Globalists))), (((banks))), and the media are all conspiring to stop him from making America great again.

 

If this is true, thank you Illuminati for ensuring that the fascist orange baby man does not become President.

 

He's also smearing his accusers in a way that can be perceived as a threat against anyone else coming forward.

 

Perceived? It's completely intentional.

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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 13, 2016 -> 01:36 PM)
Trump's in full-blown conspiracy paranoia land right now. (((Globalists))), (((banks))), and the media are all conspiring to stop him from making America great again.

 

If this is true, thank you Illuminati for ensuring that the fascist orange baby man does not become President.

 

He's also smearing his accusers in a way that can be perceived as a threat against anyone else coming forward.

His supporters online aren't as subtle, they just say "Jews"

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QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 13, 2016 -> 01:00 PM)
In some ways I'm worried about his cult-like base turning violent, but then I remember how they all (including Trump) pissed their pants and fled from Chicago over some protests that were more tame than what I've seen in the upper deck at a Cubs-Sox game.

 

Chicago to Trump:

 

giphy.gif

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