2016 Democratic Thread

[southsider2k5]

A look at the uphill battle the GOP was facing this year, with or without Trump at the top of the ticket:

 

 

That's giving ®'s a bunch of states that they would struggle to win anyway. The paths to 271 for Republicans are pretty limited.

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/05/10/p...inton/?mod=e2fb

 

Mrs. Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee, trails Mr. Trump in the perennial battleground state of Ohio and clings to one-point leads in Florida and Pennsylvania, according to a new Quinnipiac University Poll, thanks to a severely damaged public image and a wide disadvantage among men.

[lostfan]

Quinnipiac under-sampled non-white voters for some reason.

[bmags]

she's consistently a 5-6 point lead. That type of lead is not synonymous to losing a bunch of states but winning nat pop vote. That poll is interesting for hyperventilating but meaningless.

[StrangeSox]

1. It's May

2. Quinnipiac was one of the worst pollsters in this primary.

3. It's a RV poll

4. They have the electorate as more white than 2012. Hispanics are registering at record rates.

 

For comparison, other polls within the last week have Clinton winning those same states by larger margins than Obama did.

[StrangeSox]

she's consistently a 5-6 point lead. That type of lead is not synonymous to losing a bunch of states but winning nat pop vote. That poll is interesting for hyperventilating but meaningless.

I look forward to six months of people melting down every time a poll is released that shows Trump with a marginally plausible chance of winning enough states.

 

(I'm sure I'll do this at some point as well, e.g. post-1st debate polls in 2012)

[southsider2k5]

1. It's May

2. Quinnipiac was one of the worst pollsters in this primary.

3. It's a RV poll

4. They have the electorate as more white than 2012. Hispanics are registering at record rates.

 

For comparison, other polls within the last week have Clinton winning those same states by larger margins than Obama did.

 

One thing I will say is that Trump is bringing a ridiculous number of crappy and pissed off white people. For the first time since I have been alive, there were more Republican ballots taken in my county primary than Democratic, in a county that is 3:2 Democratic. I don't want to see Trump win, but I also won't pretend that there isn't something going on there.

[StrangeSox]

One thing I will say is that Trump is bringing a ridiculous number of crappy and pissed off white people. For the first time since I have been alive, there were more Republican ballots taken in my county primary than Democratic, in a county that is 3:2 Democratic. I don't want to see Trump win, but I also won't pretend that there isn't something going on there.

 

True, but OTOH Clinton's total votes in the primary are higher than Trump's. Lots and lots of people came out to the R primaries, but only a plurality of them have voted for Trump.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...vote_count.html

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...vote_count.html

 

edit: the flip side of "it's May" is that you're right, anything can happen and this is bound to be an unconventional election. Still, as of now, that Q poll is the outlier.

Edited May 10, 2016 by StrangeSox

[bmags]

One thing I will say is that Trump is bringing a ridiculous number of crappy and pissed off white people. For the first time since I have been alive, there were more Republican ballots taken in my county primary than Democratic, in a county that is 3:2 Democratic. I don't want to see Trump win, but I also won't pretend that there isn't something going on there.

 

Despite that, it's unclear he will match Romney's "white people" share if his women numbers are so horrible.

 

For Trump to win, he needs to win all of Romney's voters plus X amount of Obama's voters. With the nation becoming less white, do you think he has the ability to do that?

[Reddy]

Conversely, the most recent Georgia poll had Trump winning 42-41 against Clinton. States like that being in play is a very, very bad sign for Trump.

[greg775]

One thing I will say is that Trump is bringing a ridiculous number of crappy and pissed off white people. I don't want to see Trump win, but I also won't pretend that there isn't something going on there.

What do you mean crappy white people? Successful business people? Thanks for recognizing there is more to Trump mania than radicals wanting to fight and riot. Many dislike Hillary so much they'll vote for the other person.

[bmags]

Too obvious of trolling greg, try again.

[greg775]

Too obvious of trolling greg, try again.

Why is it trolling when I take exception to "crappy" white people? What the hell does that mean?

[lostfan]

"Crappy" white people are people on Twitter with "1488" in their handle and their bio says "European diasporan, Western Civilization enthusiast, #RapefugeesNotWelcome #BuildTheWall #altright #Trump2016"

Edited May 10, 2016 by lostfan

[southsider2k5]

Too obvious of trolling greg, try again.

 

 

"Crappy" white people are people on Twitter with "1488" in their handle and their bio says "European diasporan, Western Civilization enthusiast, #RapefugeesNotWelcome #BuildTheWall #altright #Trump2016"

 

Those are more of an answer than were deserved, but yes. That and more.

[bmags]

Do you guys mean successful business owners?

[StrangeSox]

that was last cycle's slogan! get with the times!

[StrangeSox]

Trump Selects a White Nationalist Leader as a Delegate in California

 

Johnson says that in his application to be a delegate for Trump he disclosed multiple details about his background and activism, though he did not specifically use the term "white nationalist." The Trump campaign and Lagomarsino did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Whether or not Johnson was vetted by the Trump campaign, the GOP front-runner would have a hard time claiming ignorance of Johnson's extreme views: Johnson has gained notice during the presidential primary for funding pro-Trump robocalls that convey a white nationalist message. "The white race is dying out in America and Europe because we are afraid to be called 'racist,'" Johnson says in one robocall pushed out to residential landlines in Vermont and Minnesota. "Donald Trump is not racist, but Donald Trump is not afraid. Don't vote for a Cuban. Vote for Donald Trump."

 

Armed with cash from affluent donors and staffed by what the movement considers to be its top thinkers, AFP now dedicates most of its resources to supporting Trump. Johnson claims that AFP's pro-Trump robocalls, which have delivered Johnson's personal cellphone number to voters in seven states, have helped the party find hundreds of new members. "[Trump] is allowing us to talk about things we've not been able to talk about," Johnson says. "So even if he is not elected, he has achieved great things."

 

More on this great Trump supporter from TPM:

 

“Donald Trump’s campaign may help remind Americans that all genocide, even against white people, is evil," Whitaker notes in a statement on the AFP’s website. "My campaign is there to help keep the candidates on point regarding race in America.”

 

Johnson has assembled an all-star cast of white nationalists to assist him in spreading Trump’s message. The first round of robocalls featured Rev. Donald Tan, a Filipino-American minister, and Jared Taylor, founder of the white

supremacist magazine American Renaissance. Johnson told TPM that a number of additional Trump supporters would eventually lend their endorsements to the American National Super PAC's efforts.

 

Taylor also serves as the spokesman for the Council of Concerned Citizens, a white nationalist group Charleston shooter Dylann Roof credited with making him aware of the problem of “brutal black on White murders” in the U.S.

 

After Roof gunned down nine parishioners at a historically black church in June 2015, Taylor condemned the killings but defended the “legitimacy” of Roof’s grievances.

 

In a Monday phone interview with TPM, Taylor called Trump “the first candidate in many, many years to take positions that may in fact be beneficial to the white majority.”

 

and from Vox:

 

Johnson is a white nationalist true believer who calls explicitly for a forced population transfer of all nonwhites off US soil. The Southern Poverty Law Center reports, "Johnson had been advocating for the deportation of all non-white immigrants and U.S. citizens, including anyone with any 'ascertainable trace of Negro blood,' since 1985, when he wrote a book arguing for a constitutional amendment to do just that."

Edited May 10, 2016 by StrangeSox

[greg775]

Bernie won again! West Virginia.

 

Cue the ...

Yawn, he's getting killed. Hillary is running away with the normination; she has all the delegates. Who cares if Bernie won AGAIN. His campaign is going nowhere. Hillary is the choice of the people.

 

Keep ignoring Bernie, pundits. If Hillary is so damn popular why has she been getting KILLED on the primary trail of late? Maybe I'll turn on the late night TV show replays tonight so I can hear them praise Hillary and ignore Bernie's win tonight. Trump is right. Bernie has been dissed so badly he really should run independent when this is all over.

Edited May 11, 2016 by greg775

[Quin]

Bernie won again! West Virginia.

 

Cue the ...

Yawn, he's getting killed. Hillary is running away with the normination; she has all the delegates. Who cares if Bernie won AGAIN. His campaign is going nowhere. Hillary is the choice of the people.

 

Keep ignoring Bernie, pundits. If Hillary is so damn popular why has she been getting KILLED on the primary trail of late? Maybe I'll turn on the late night TV show replays tonight so I can hear them praise Hillary and ignore Bernie's win tonight. Drumpf is right. Bernie has been dissed so badly he really should run independent when this is all over.

 

Bernie keeps winning the small states.

 

Hillary keeps winning the big ones.

 

What is so hard about that for you to grasp?

[greg775]

Bernie keeps winning the small states.

 

Hillary keeps winning the big ones.

 

What is so hard about that for you to grasp?

Just watched the late night shows; lasted 15 minutes. Had to turn 'em off. The excuse was West Virginia was nothing to Hillary. She's running as an extension of Obama and W. Va voters hate Obama so she knew she'd lost and did.

Also all 3 political networks immediately cut to the delagate count rather than saying Bernie had any momentum. They just want to keep Hillary in charge and keep the people believing Bernie has never had a chance so don't fret it now. I wish the pundits would just admit they want Hillary. If she ever did get indicted that would be hilarious cause I firmly believe she'd still win. "She got unfairly indicted. She did nothing wrong." She'd be President til the day the iron door slammed shut with her in the cell.

[caulfield12]

Well, that and saying she wanted to shut down the coal business, which just so happens to still be the #1 job provider in WV.

 

Obama was destroyed by Clinton there in 2008...fwiw.

 

 

As far as the delegate race, if Bernie was within 100 of Hilary's lead (not counting the superdelegates), he'd have a point....but coming into last night it was closer to 300. The Dems have the superdelegate system, and they're almost all supporting Clinton. Whether that's "fair or not" is a question for another time and place.

 

His main argument is that he's polling better against Trump in a general election match-up than Hilary...but Kasich is polling better than Trump against Hillary too, so it's pretty meaningless at this point.

Edited May 11, 2016 by caulfield12

[lostfan]

Once again, Hillary Clinton can (and there's a good chance she will since she's not even campaigning anymore) lose every state from here to the end and still secure the nomination. Numbers.

[bmags]

Bernie's main reason to stay in race is same as clintons was in 08, a desire to let all of his supporters cast their vote for him. He'll drop out after california. They do deserve that, he was a strong candidate, with high enthusiasm levels.

[lasttriptotulsa]

Once again, Hillary Clinton can (and there's a good chance she will since she's not even campaigning anymore) lose every state from here to the end and still secure the nomination. Numbers.

 

She's not going to hit 2384 without the Super Delegates. She would need to win about 74% of the remaining pledged delegates to get there. She still needs to win 45% of the remaining pledged delegates to maintain her lead on Sanders.

[bmags]

She's not going to hit 2384 without the Super Delegates. She would need to win about 74% of the remaining pledged delegates to get there. She still needs to win 45% of the remaining pledged delegates to maintain her lead on Sanders.

 

She'll hit that number because Sanders will drop out, and his delegates will nominate clinton.

 

I know that we all think we've never seen this story before, but it happened 8 years ago. And guess what? 8 years ago clinton actually had the popular vote over obama!