2016 Republican Thread

[StrangeSox]

On the other hand, Romney also maintained that steady 30-35% polling support throughout the primaries until he was the last man standing. Trump is going to continue to pile up delegates. It's not the exact same dynamic as it was in 2012, but I don't think a ceiling of 30-35% is some sort of a death knell for the nomination.

[NorthSideSox72]

On the other hand, Romney also maintained that steady 30-35% polling support throughout the primaries until he was the last man standing. Trump is going to continue to pile up delegates. It's not the exact same dynamic as it was in 2012, but I don't think a ceiling of 30-35% is some sort of a death knell for the nomination.

I'd have to dig in to the 2012 history, but looking at Trump vs others in the "I'd Never" category, I have a very hard time believing Romney was ever in that territory. Very different situation.

 

But it is true that the longer things stay this wide, the more delegates Trump picks up. I'd hope we would be down to 3-4 candidates by Super Tuesday.

 

[southsider2k5]

On the other hand, Romney also maintained that steady 30-35% polling support throughout the primaries until he was the last man standing. Trump is going to continue to pile up delegates. It's not the exact same dynamic as it was in 2012, but I don't think a ceiling of 30-35% is some sort of a death knell for the nomination.

 

This could actually be a real convention if other candidates stick around not allowing Trump to win 50% +1 of the delegates. If you get Trump with say 35%, and a whole mess of candidates with less, who those other candidates throw their delegates to could sway the convention. Say Rubio moves up to around 25% after more guys drop out, while Cruz stays at 15%. You have 40% undecideds who could literally sway the convention to any of the three.

 

It could be the most interesting convention of my lifetime.

 

OK, I just re-read and the math doesn't work exactly, but you get the idea.

[Chisoxfn]

Christie has to drop out now, right? He put all his eggs in NH and lost. I thought Jeb would be on his way out, but with his showing, he clearly won't drop out and Kasich clearly can continue a little longer (how much so, who knows...unless he gets the backing of Bush).

[southsider2k5]

Christie has to drop out now, right? He put all his eggs in NH and lost. I thought Jeb would be on his way out, but with his showing, he clearly won't drop out and Kasich clearly can continue a little longer (how much so, who knows...unless he gets the backing of Bush).

 

The bottom half of the field should be dropping out. Realistically the only guys who should be left are Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and maybe Kasich.

[StrangeSox]

Christie has to drop out now, right? He put all his eggs in NH and lost. I thought Jeb would be on his way out, but with his showing, he clearly won't drop out and Kasich clearly can continue a little longer (how much so, who knows...unless he gets the backing of Bush).

He'll be out officially soon

 

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/697444192193265664

[Chisoxfn]

The bottom half of the field should be dropping out. Realistically the only guys who should be left are Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and maybe Kasich.

Given Bush's finish in NH, I have a hard time indicating why he should drop out. You might think he's toast, but reality is he's gotten a bit of momentum recently and is starting to gain some traction (all while Bush's primary competition, Rubio is sliding). He'll need to keep building on that and can't have a poor finish here on out, but I see no reason, with all the money he has raised, that he should drop out based upon the results in NH. He beat Rubio and was basically the same as Cruz (two guys who are clearly in the race).

 

Now Christie, Fiorina, and Carson clearly all need to walk away. Christie put all his eggs in New Hampshire and was way behind everyone else. The other two have zero momentum or just declining momentum. I'm sure Carson won't (since he didn't focus much on NH anyway, but I don't know that he makes it to Super Tuesday).

 

Note: I refer to Rubio as Bush's primary competition, because I clearly think the core republicans want one of Rubio / Bush / Kasich and prior to super tuesday they need to get the field narrowed to one of these remaining candidates so they can actually stand a shot at beating Trump or Cruz.

[southsider2k5]

Given Bush's finish in NH, I have a hard time indicating why he should drop out. You might think he's toast, but reality is he's gotten a bit of momentum recently and is starting to gain some traction (all while Bush's primary competition, Rubio is sliding). He'll need to keep building on that and can't have a poor finish here on out, but I see no reason, with all the money he has raised, that he should drop out based upon the results in NH. He beat Rubio and was basically the same as Cruz (two guys who are clearly in the race).

 

Now Christie, Fiorina, and Carson clearly all need to walk away. Christie put all his eggs in New Hampshire and was way behind everyone else. The other two have zero momentum or just declining momentum. I'm sure Carson won't (since he didn't focus much on NH anyway, but I don't know that he makes it to Super Tuesday).

 

Note: I refer to Rubio as Bush's primary competition, because I clearly think the core republicans want one of Rubio / Bush / Kasich and prior to super tuesday they need to get the field narrowed to one of these remaining candidates so they can actually stand a shot at beating Trump or Cruz.

 

Bush still finished tied for 4th at 11%, after getting crushed in Iowa. He is also polling 4th in SC right now at 10%.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...imary-4151.html

[Y2Jimmy0]

Christie is suspending his campaign.....now he can be Kasich's VP..................

[Chisoxfn]

Bush still finished tied for 4th at 11%, after getting crushed in Iowa. He is also polling 4th in SC right now at 10%.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...imary-4151.html

Momentum though. Had Rubio had a strong finish, I think Bush is out. Rubio is eroding right now (whether he can stop that erotion or not, remains to be scene). Bush has benefited from it, as has Kasich, and Bush has to see that Kasich is a beatable guy (if not from the pure perspective that Bush has so much more resources than Kasich). I just see no logical reason for Bush to walk away now.

 

If he has a weak showing in SC and Nevada, than I could see him turning away and getting pressured to turn away, because the non Cruz / Trump candidates are all going to get a ton of pressure from more mainstream conservatives to widdle their side of the field down to 1 by Super Tuesday. I put the odds much higher today that Bush could be that guy than I would have a week ago (when I'd have given him zero chance...odds might only be 10%, but that is still an improvement).

 

Kasich might actually be the guy in the driver seat right now, but he needs to capitalize on it with a strong showing, as this is going to be the first time he gets any sort of main stream coverage (or so I suspect). He absolutely has to capitalize on this opportunity. I'd actually say odds are pretty split between Kasich / Rubio of who would come out and who would have said that a week ago (when Rubio had all the momentum).

 

Note: Kasich might end up getting lucky cause I have a feeling Bush is going to spend his time and money attacking Rubio and Rubio will thus have to do the same to Bush, which might mean Kasich can stay above the fray and benefit from the other two beating themselves up. None of this impacts Trump / Cruz as I think they have an entirely different base.

[southsider2k5]

Momentum though. Had Rubio had a strong finish, I think Bush is out. Rubio is eroding right now (whether he can stop that erotion or not, remains to be scene). Bush has benefited from it, as has Kasich, and Bush has to see that Kasich is a beatable guy (if not from the pure perspective that Bush has so much more resources than Kasich). I just see no logical reason for Bush to walk away now.

 

If he has a weak showing in SC and Nevada, than I could see him turning away and getting pressured to turn away, because the non Cruz / Trump candidates are all going to get a ton of pressure from more mainstream conservatives to widdle their side of the field down to 1 by Super Tuesday. I put the odds much higher today that Bush could be that guy than I would have a week ago (when I'd have given him zero chance...odds might only be 10%, but that is still an improvement).

 

Kasich might actually be the guy in the driver seat right now, but he needs to capitalize on it with a strong showing, as this is going to be the first time he gets any sort of main stream coverage (or so I suspect). He absolutely has to capitalize on this opportunity. I'd actually say odds are pretty split between Kasich / Rubio of who would come out and who would have said that a week ago (when Rubio had all the momentum).

 

Note: Kasich might end up getting lucky cause I have a feeling Bush is going to spend his time and money attacking Rubio and Rubio will thus have to do the same to Bush, which might mean Kasich can stay above the fray and benefit from the other two beating themselves up. None of this impacts Trump / Cruz as I think they have an entirely different base.

 

That is the irritating part. While calling a 4th place finish momentum, they are missing out on the chances to get real momentum behind whoever is the NotTrump candidate for the convention, leading to an actual convention fight for the nomination, instead of giving the eventual candidate a chance to start campaigning months earlier.

[Chisoxfn]

That is the irritating part. While calling a 4th place finish momentum, they are missing out on the chances to get real momentum behind whoever is the NotTrump candidate for the convention, leading to an actual convention fight for the nomination, instead of giving the eventual candidate a chance to start campaigning months earlier.

Well maybe my difference here is, I view there being 3 distinct candidates. Trump, Cruz, and the moderate conservative (Rubio / Kasich / Bush). So basically you have 3 people fighting for one spot. The top dog, Rubio, is losing momentum and both secondary candidates have gained momentum. Kasich gained more, but Kasich also has almost no money so Bush isn't in all that bad of a position. All things considered, its amazing Bush has any chance to be back in this (after the way Trump put him out to the pasture).

 

I agree with you they have to widdle that field down but I view Cruz as bad, if not worse than Trump (personally speaking) and I figure we have two more states to truly narrow this field down so that by Super Tuesday, only one person remains between Rubio / Kasich / Bush.

 

I actually think I vote for Trump before I vote for Cruz.

 

By the way, good debate Mike. Crazy that we are even talking about this. It is such an interesting political year.

[southsider2k5]

Well maybe my difference here is, I view there being 3 distinct candidates. Trump, Cruz, and the moderate conservative (Rubio / Kasich / Bush). So basically you have 3 people fighting for one spot. The top dog, Rubio, is losing momentum and both secondary candidates have gained momentum. Kasich gained more, but Kasich also has almost no money so Bush isn't in all that bad of a position. All things considered, its amazing Bush has any chance to be back in this (after the way Trump put him out to the pasture).

 

I agree with you they have to widdle that field down but I view Cruz as bad, if not worse than Trump (personally speaking) and I figure we have two more states to truly narrow this field down so that by Super Tuesday, only one person remains between Rubio / Kasich / Bush.

 

I actually think I vote for Trump before I vote for Cruz.

 

By the way, good debate Mike. Crazy that we are even talking about this. It is such an interesting political year.

 

I totally agree with your top 2 statements. On the third, I'd vote for the Libertarian candidate before I voted for either Trump or Cruz. I did it when Romney ran last time, and I probably will do it again.

 

It is a crazy election cycle for sure. It has been a long time since we have seen truly this much question as to the nomination, maybe back to the Civil War. Even the 08 Democratic race that took a while only was down to two candidates the whole time. This is a f***ing mess.

[Chisoxfn]

I totally agree with your top 2 statements. On the third, I'd vote for the Libertarian candidate before I voted for either Trump or Cruz. I did it when Romney ran last time, and I probably will do it again.

 

It is a crazy election cycle for sure. It has been a long time since we have seen truly this much question as to the nomination, maybe back to the Civil War. Even the 08 Democratic race that took a while only was down to two candidates the whole time. This is a f***ing mess.

Yeah. I agree with you. If it is Trump / Cruz, as of today, I'd be writing in a candidate. But if someone put a gun to my head and said pick one, I'll be honest, I'd go with Trump.

[StrangeSox]

That is the irritating part. While calling a 4th place finish momentum, they are missing out on the chances to get real momentum behind whoever is the NotTrump candidate for the convention, leading to an actual convention fight for the nomination, instead of giving the eventual candidate a chance to start campaigning months earlier.

Who gets to be this NotTrump candidate and what claim do they have over the others, though?

[pettie4sox]

I think Kasich is the way republicans should go if they want a shot.

[southsider2k5]

Who gets to be this NotTrump candidate and what claim do they have over the others, though?

 

That is just it. They are going to f*** around and stick in the race, screwing the delegate count up and forcing a contested primary. The sooner the chaff drops off, the sooner that NotTrump candidate can emerge.

[southsider2k5]

Yeah. I agree with you. If it is Trump / Cruz, as of today, I'd be writing in a candidate. But if someone put a gun to my head and said pick one, I'll be honest, I'd go with Trump.

 

Ugh. I honestly couldn't decide. I would just close my eyes and pick one.

[NorthSideSox72]

Christie is out. Fiorina is out.

 

Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Bush and Kasich got their tickets punched and move on.

 

Carson, no one seems to know what he's doing. Probably including him.

 

South Carolina and Nevada coming up.

 

Kasich and Carson in single digits in polls in SC. No recent Nevada polls to help there. But neither of them look to me like they profile well for those states. I'd say they are the ones in biggest trouble right now.

 

My best guess is, we go into Super Tuesday with Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Bush. But I'm not confident on Bush, and Kasich could maybe continue to rally and stick around.

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Christie is out. Fiorina is out.

 

Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Bush and Kasich got their tickets punched and move on.

 

Carson, no one seems to know what he's doing. Probably including him.

 

South Carolina and Nevada coming up.

 

Kasich and Carson in single digits in polls in SC. No recent Nevada polls to help there. But neither of them look to me like they profile well for those states. I'd say they are the ones in biggest trouble right now.

 

My best guess is, we go into Super Tuesday with Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Bush. But I'm not confident on Bush, and Kasich could maybe continue to rally and stick around.

 

Also - only Carson looks like someone who's supporters could go differentially to Cruz. Christie lines up more with Bush or Kasich. Fiorina I can't tell really. Kasich or Bush would go to Rubio most likely.

 

[Chisoxfn]

Also - only Carson looks like someone who's supporters could go deferentially to Cruz. Christie lines up more with Bush or Kasich. Fiorina I can't tell really. Kasich or Bush would go to Rubio most likely.

I would think Fiorina supporters go to someone more mainstream but Carson's probably go all over the place (more to Cruz / Trump but for now split with than some mainstream candidates picking up some as well).

 

Does Carson even qualify for the upcoming debate? So next debate will have an even more narrowed down field, which could create new senses of urgency, etc, and overall gives each of the candidates more time to shine / fail.

[StrangeSox]

Carson, no one seems to know what he's doing. Probably including him.

 

Grift. I'm still not sure if Carson himself is in on it, but his entire campaign staff is just raking in money. They've been spending something like 90% of their intake on more fundraising efforts conveniently funneled through their own consulting firms.

[RockRaines]

Talked to two trump supporters today whose main reason was he was going to "carpet bomb" those terrorists and let us protect ourselves with guns against terrorist attacks.

 

I guess I don't understand why terrorism is so high on the priority list, it effects us in such minute amount compared to other things. It's crazy to me.

[LittleHurt05]

Talked to two trump supporters today whose main reason was he was going to "carpet bomb" those terrorists and let us protect ourselves with guns against terrorist attacks.

 

I guess I don't understand why terrorism is so high on the priority list, it effects us in such minute amount compared to other things. It's crazy to me.

 

I read this article today from Drew Magary trying to find the people who are voting from Trump, thought it was pretty interesting. (Although just realized it's dated August 2015, I thought it was new)

 

http://www.gq.com/story/trump-supporters-g...=social_twitter

[Jenksismyhero]

This cracked me up.