2016 Republican Thread

[Buehrle>Wood]

Not ignoring history at all. In fact, looking at past results is exactly why I came to the conclusion that it is over.

 

Last night Trump got votes in Nevada than everyone combined in 2012. People are coming out for him. Every man to win in South Carolina except one to get the nomination. He's doing better than McCain and Mitt at the same juncture.

 

It's not super tuesday, right, but that's in a week and it's going to be a bloodbath for Trump. He leads 10 of 14 states and a lot of those by double digits. His "closest" lead, hes still up 7 points. He's pulled within 1 point of Cruz in the big one, Cruz' home state of Texas. He's -300 at the sportsbook and that's about to go way up next Tuesday. If you truly dont think hes winning the nomination, you can go make a lot of money.

 

He's going to get the nomination short of him killing someone on live tv. Considering he got the pope to back down to him, that may not be enough. As for Hillary in the general, he beats her in the most recent national poll. Now, national polls this early mean nothing, but figure I'd point it out. His plan vs her will be simple, take her down like Bernie has by painting her as corrupt. The difference is Trump has 1000x the ammo. Every time hes on TV, he's going to shout from the rooftops I bribed you and you accepted them...over....and over....and over...and over again. That will never stop once they're 1 on 1.

 

[cabiness42]

The one reason I think this might go against historical trends is that there is so much anti-Trump sentiment that Cruz/Rubio/Kasich might all stay in longer than they normally would just to keep Trump from getting to 50% of the delegates and thus pushing the decision to the convention. Normally, the other candidates would not hate the front-runner so much that their resistance would fade once one guy has won 3 of the first 4 contests.

[NorthSideSox72]

Not ignoring history at all. In fact, looking at past results is exactly why I came to the conclusion that it is over.

 

Last night Trump got votes in Nevada than everyone combined in 2012. People are coming out for him. Every man to win in South Carolina except one to get the nomination. He's doing better than McCain and Mitt at the same juncture.

 

It's not super tuesday, right, but that's in a week and it's going to be a bloodbath for Trump. He leads 10 of 14 states and a lot of those by double digits. His "closest" lead, hes still up 7 points. He's pulled within 1 point of Cruz in the big one, Cruz' home state of Texas. He's -300 at the sportsbook and that's about to go way up next Tuesday. If you truly dont think hes winning the nomination, you can go make a lot of money.

 

He's going to get the nomination short of him killing someone on live tv. Considering he got the pope to back down to him, that may not be enough. As for Hillary in the general, he beats her in the most recent national poll. Now, national polls this early mean nothing, but figure I'd point it out. His plan vs her will be simple, take her down like Bernie has by painting her as corrupt. The difference is Trump has 1000x the ammo. Every time hes on TV, he's going to shout from the rooftops I bribed you and you accepted them...over....and over....and over...and over again. That will never stop once they're 1 on 1.

History does cut both ways - I shouldn't have been as dismissive about that, you and Jas are right there. There is precedent to say either/or.

 

Trump has remained strong much longer than I thought he would, that's for sure. Super Tuesday will tell us a lot.

 

What do you mean by the bolded though? Because from what I saw, it was Trump who backed away from his initial reaction, not the Pope. I might have missed something though.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

The one reason I think this might go against historical trends is that there is so much anti-Trump sentiment that Cruz/Rubio/Kasich might all stay in longer than they normally would just to keep Trump from getting to 50% of the delegates and thus pushing the decision to the convention. Normally, the other candidates would not hate the front-runner so much that their resistance would fade once one guy has won 3 of the first 4 contests.

That's what I've been saying, and what I think ultimately keeps Trump from it. I don't see him going to convention with a majority of delegates, one way or another, because the anti-support around him is just too strong. And I'm pretty sure every other candidate would pick anyone else but Trump. The X-Factor in that, if it does go to convention without a majority leader, is ego - which of, let's say, Cruz or Rubio would be willing to back down.

 

[StrangeSox]

Even if Trump maintains his 30-35% levels, he's already on his path to securing enough delegates before the election.

[Jenksismyhero]

This is true but it will be even funnier when he brings up Bill getting head in the Oval Office.

 

Hence why we should all be rooting for him. Those debates would be amazing television.

[StrangeSox]

Hillary doesn't exactly get flustered by bloviating idiots.

[southsider2k5]

Hillary doesn't exactly get flustered by bloviating idiots.

 

She has had plenty of practice dealing with one in particular...

[southsider2k5]

Flustered is one of the only personalities her people don't plan for her.

 

The polls don't allow it.

[Jenksismyhero]

Hillary doesn't exactly get flustered by bloviating idiots.

 

She's going up against a complete unknown. He could say literally anything at any time. Whether she gets flustered or not is beside the point. I want to see her reaction when he accuses her of not being able to control her own house, let alone the country, etc.

[NorthSideSox72]

She's going up against a complete unknown. He could say literally anything at any time. Whether she gets flustered or not is beside the point. I want to see her reaction when he accuses her of not being able to control her own house, let alone the country, etc.

This is actually where I think she'd do far better than Sanders. She wouldn't get angry. Angry plays right into it. She'd just give him rope, and let the people who are deciding the election (those not pre-selected based on party) see him for what he is. THat's among the reasons I'm quite confident he loses vs Clinton, if he gets the nomination.

 

[Soxbadger]

She's going up against a complete unknown. He could say literally anything at any time. Whether she gets flustered or not is beside the point. I want to see her reaction when he accuses her of not being able to control her own house, let alone the country, etc.

 

If Trump is smart he doesnt go down those roads at all. 2 failed marriages isnt exactly a solid foundation. Trump was married to Ivana when he started an extramarital affair with Marla.

 

And lets be honest, this whole sideshow isnt good for anyone even if it means that candidates I like less wont have a chance.

[Jenksismyhero]

This is actually where I think she'd do far better than Sanders. She wouldn't get angry. Angry plays right into it. She'd just give him rope, and let the people who are deciding the election (those not pre-selected based on party) see him for what he is. THat's among the reasons I'm quite confident he loses vs Clinton, if he gets the nomination.

 

Conversely, she'll come off as the stiff, boring, entrenched politician that she is (an image she can't shake and is a problem even with liberal voters) while Trump continues to beat the more fun, outgoing, anti-establishment drum, a drum that is resonating despite all the dumb stuff he says. Either way, it'll be fun to watch.

 

I still think if a lot of Dems just say screw it and don't vote because they don't like Trump or Clinton, he's got a shot. He's not going to pull a lot of people from the left, but he'll attract some undecideds and it's pretty clear something about him is getting voters interested and out there voting. And it's not just "he says racist s***."

[Soxbadger]

Conversely, she'll come off as the stiff, boring, entrenched politician that she is (an image she can't shake and is a problem even with liberal voters) while Trump continues to beat the more fun, outgoing, anti-establishment drum, a drum that is resonating despite all the dumb stuff he says. Either way, it'll be fun to watch.

 

I still think if a lot of Dems just say screw it and don't vote because they don't like Trump or Clinton, he's got a shot. He's not going to pull a lot of people from the left, but he'll attract some undecideds and it's pretty clear something about him is getting voters interested and out there voting. And it's not just "he says racist s***."

 

Hate messages are very attractive, a lot of politicians have historically won on the "Its not your fault its someone else's" message. I think its impossible to predict what will happen if he actually goes to the general election. There are some people right now voting for Trump to try and weaken the GOP, especially the religious right.

 

That being said, if Trump continues with hate rhetoric I hope that Democrats will all vote against him. Not as an endorsement of the Democrat candidate but as a rebuke of Trump.

[StrangeSox]

Conversely, she'll come off as the stiff, boring, entrenched politician that she is (an image she can't shake and is a problem even with liberal voters) while Trump continues to beat the more fun, outgoing, anti-establishment drum, a drum that is resonating despite all the dumb stuff he says. Either way, it'll be fun to watch.

 

I dunno, sort of the exact opposite thing happened in Round 9837 of Benghazi hearings last October. Bringing up Bill Clinton getting a blow job 20 years later doesn't exactly seem like an effective political tactic. There's a decent sized core of people who want a schoolyard bully, but I don't see how that would get you to 270 EV's.

 

I still think if a lot of Dems just say screw it and don't vote because they don't like Trump or Clinton, he's got a shot. He's not going to pull a lot of people from the left, but he'll attract some undecideds and it's pretty clear something about him is getting voters interested and out there voting. And it's not just "he says racist s***."

 

Well yeah, if a bunch of Democrats don't turn out to vote, whoever the Republican nominee is has a shot. If there's a major terrorist attack or economic crash in September or October, they have a shot.

 

Trump is funneling a lot of anger from the electorate right now. Racism is definitely a key part of that, but it's not the only type.

 

[southsider2k5]

Hate messages are very attractive, a lot of politicians have historically won on the "Its not your fault its someone else's" message. I think its impossible to predict what will happen if he actually goes to the general election. There are some people right now voting for Trump to try and weaken the GOP, especially the religious right.

 

That being said, if Trump continues with hate rhetoric I hope that Democrats will all vote against him. Not as an endorsement of the Democrat candidate but as a rebuke of Trump.

 

That is the whole reason Bernie Sanders is still around.

[NorthSideSox72]

Conversely, she'll come off as the stiff, boring, entrenched politician that she is (an image she can't shake and is a problem even with liberal voters) while Trump continues to beat the more fun, outgoing, anti-establishment drum, a drum that is resonating despite all the dumb stuff he says. Either way, it'll be fun to watch.

 

I still think if a lot of Dems just say screw it and don't vote because they don't like Trump or Clinton, he's got a shot. He's not going to pull a lot of people from the left, but he'll attract some undecideds and it's pretty clear something about him is getting voters interested and out there voting. And it's not just "he says racist s***."

Eh, in the end, Trump will draw a lot of angry people. Frankly, right now, the Dems are only angry at Republicans. I mean, from a voter point of view, the Obama administration has been pretty damn good on fundamentals - economic recovery, health care, etc. The ultra-liberals won't be super-happy, but they'll vote Hillary without hesitation. The only way Trump pulls in angry Dems the way he does the GOP is if they are angry at their own party, which as a whole they won't be.

 

[caulfield12]

Hillary has been bleeding support from young people and the disaffected whites who in large majorities voted for her over Obama in 2008.

 

Trump actually got around 40% from Hispanics, women and evangelicals in NV, which is kind of amazing when you consider his comments on Mexicans, immigration, border walls and the Pope. Otoh, 20% more of the voters in NV were mad/angry with their government compared to the first three states. Remember, the Bundys are from there.

 

Cruz has to win TX. Kasich is done. And Trump's way up on Rubio in his home state of Florida.

 

At any rate, his attack on Rubio from here on out is simple..."Marco, you'd make a great VP but you're just not ready to be the top dog." And he can keep playing the card of the GOP and Priebus are being unfair, so he'll just go independent and make it impossible to beat Clinton or protect the SC nomination. That's a big risk to take, deliberately alienating him and having a repeat of 1964 with Goldwater.

Edited February 24, 2016 by caulfield12

[StrangeSox]

Trump actually got around 40% from Hispanics, women and evangelicals in NV,

 

There were a total of 100-200 Hispanic GOP caucus voters in Nevada. That's not really representative of GOP Hispanics in general let alone the general population.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Republican hispanics also do hate illegals more than anyone in a lot of cases. Trump playing into that.

[greg775]

Hillary has been bleeding support from young people and the disaffected whites who in large majorities voted for her over Obama in 2008.

 

Trump actually got around 40% from Hispanics, women and evangelicals in NV, which is kind of amazing when you consider his comments on Mexicans, immigration, border walls and the Pope. Otoh, 20% more of the voters in NV were mad/angry with their government compared to the first three states. Remember, the Bundys are from there.

 

Cruz has to win TX. Kasich is done. And Trump's way up on Rubio in his home state of Florida.

 

At any rate, his attack on Rubio from here on out is simple..."Marco, you'd make a great VP but you're just not ready to be the top dog." And he can keep playing the card of the GOP and Priebus are being unfair, so he'll just go independent and make it impossible to beat Clinton or protect the SC nomination. That's a big risk to take, deliberately alienating him and having a repeat of 1964 with Goldwater.

It's hard to believe the Republicans are so ill prepared nowadays for presidential elections they can't even nominate a VERY PRESIDENTIAL candidate. Mr. Kasisch is beloved in Ohio. He is classy and Presidential. And he's ... about out. Caulfield you must agree Kasisch was the guy the Republicans needed to get nominated as their candidate.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Trying to find the most presidential candidate is exactly why they are where they are right now.

[Chisoxfn]

This is actually where I think she'd do far better than Sanders. She wouldn't get angry. Angry plays right into it. She'd just give him rope, and let the people who are deciding the election (those not pre-selected based on party) see him for what he is. THat's among the reasons I'm quite confident he loses vs Clinton, if he gets the nomination.

I think the wall street costs, etc, are something that Trump would rail on Hillary to the tee and people have a general distaste for wall street, etc. He'll hit on the moderate issues. I never thought I'd say this (even a week ago) but I see more momentum and signs for him actually being president than I ever did before. Nevada gave more reason for that where Trump really grew his overall pull (as well). The old theory was everyone jumping off the falling candidates was going to gravitate to non Trump candidates, but the reality hasn't been so set and as I pointed out previously, as he continues to build momentum more of those "swing" voters or potential non-trump voters will either not vote in the primary (because they realize Trump has already won) or turn their vote to Trump.

 

And those non-primary voting conservatives who, as pissed off as they are with Trump, are not going to sit back and vote for Hillary or Bernie. They republicans are livid with the democrats and the turnouts in the primary are evidence for how irate and motivated the actual base is (and this more than anything should be what really gets the DNC worried), the vote and turnout will ultimately be their for the republican and as people go out, Trump is going to do what he can to bring back in those anti-trump conservatives by throwing him a more experienced VP candidate (imo). Lets just hypothetically say it is Kasich or even Rubio, do you really think those people are going to vote independent or democrat vs. voting for a Trump / Rubio or Kasich ticket? Would Rubio or Kasich turn down the VP bid, I don't think so.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Glad you brought up turnout. That's a huge story that no one seems to be talking about. Republican turnout is absolutely shattering the previous records across the board. Is it Trump? Anti-Trump? Simple hate for the Dems?

 

Democrat turnout on the other hand is way down compared to 2008. I guess there's no inspirational candidate there.

[NorthSideSox72]

I think the wall street costs, etc, are something that Trump would rail on Hillary to the tee and people have a general distaste for wall street, etc. He'll hit on the moderate issues. I never thought I'd say this (even a week ago) but I see more momentum and signs for him actually being president than I ever did before. Nevada gave more reason for that where Trump really grew his overall pull (as well). The old theory was everyone jumping off the falling candidates was going to gravitate to non Trump candidates, but the reality hasn't been so set and as I pointed out previously, as he continues to build momentum more of those "swing" voters or potential non-trump voters will either not vote in the primary (because they realize Trump has already won) or turn their vote to Trump.

 

And those non-primary voting conservatives who, as pissed off as they are with Trump, are not going to sit back and vote for Hillary or Bernie. They republicans are livid with the democrats and the turnouts in the primary are evidence for how irate and motivated the actual base is (and this more than anything should be what really gets the DNC worried), the vote and turnout will ultimately be their for the republican and as people go out, Trump is going to do what he can to bring back in those anti-trump conservatives by throwing him a more experienced VP candidate (imo). Lets just hypothetically say it is Kasich or even Rubio, do you really think those people are going to vote independent or democrat vs. voting for a Trump / Rubio or Kasich ticket? Would Rubio or Kasich turn down the VP bid, I don't think so.

Oh I agree that Trump likely pulls in the GOP quite well, even (mostly) the ones who claim they'll never vote for him. But I don't think he'll pull very well on the ones in the middle at all.