BlackSox13 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I don't pay much attention to projections so fellow Sox fans, please feel free to help me out with this. My question is, how reliable or accurate are projections and are they worth paying attention to? http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseba...t-worse-in-2016 "The 2016 projections think Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Davis will get worse" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 (edited) There is a very good chance Cespedes gets worse. 2015 was an outlier and career year for sure. That being said, if he settles somewhere in between his career norm and 2015, that's still an all-star caliber slugger worth 4-4.5 wins. I think that's very desirable despite it technically being a "worse year". Edited January 1, 2016 by Chilihead90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 If I had to guess? One of them will have a startlingly good year and one of them will have a terrible year, to the point where 29 other teams say "thank goodness we didn't sign him". I have no idea which will be which. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GGajewski18 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Steamer projects 266/312/473 with 27 HRs and 32 2Bs. If that's a "bad" year, then sign me up. An Abreu-Cespedes-Frazier middle of the order......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackmooncreeping Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jan 1, 2016 -> 05:05 PM) Steamer projects 266/312/473 with 27 HRs and 32 2Bs. If that's a "bad" year, then sign me up. An Abreu-Cespedes-Frazier middle of the order......... ...would be sweet, and to have Laroche hit even .250 in the 6 or 7 hole would make it so much deeper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GGajewski18 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 QUOTE (blackmooncreeping @ Jan 1, 2016 -> 05:07 PM) ...would be sweet, and to have Laroche hit even .250 in the 6 or 7 hole would make it so much deeper. If LaRoche hit 240 with 18-22 bombs would make me happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Special K Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jan 1, 2016 -> 05:09 PM) If LaRoche hit 240 with 18-22 bombs would make me happy. There is no chance this will ever happen. Absolute best case scenario, .240 with 10-12 homers. I've never seen someone deteriorate offensively so quickly in all my years watching baseball but it happened with LaRoche. Even his OBP was garbage. He really is this bad now. His agent better have gotten a phenomenal Christmas gift from him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GGajewski18 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 QUOTE (Special K @ Jan 1, 2016 -> 05:20 PM) There is no chance this will ever happen. Absolute best case scenario, .240 with 10-12 homers. I've never seen someone deteriorate offensively so quickly in all my years watching baseball but it happened with LaRoche. Even his OBP was garbage. He really is this bad now. His agent better have gotten a phenomenal Christmas gift from him. LaRoche can turn it around. He's done it before in the past. Knows the AL a little bit more now. Not saying he'll be great, but I think he can better than last year.\ If you think LaRoche's ceiling is 10-12 HRs now, you're just plain wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackmooncreeping Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 QUOTE (Special K @ Jan 1, 2016 -> 05:20 PM) There is no chance this will ever happen. Absolute best case scenario, .240 with 10-12 homers. I've never seen someone deteriorate offensively so quickly in all my years watching baseball but it happened with LaRoche. Even his OBP was garbage. He really is this bad now. His agent better have gotten a phenomenal Christmas gift from him. Even though I can't say I think he will bounce back, this info that he had some type of lingering hand injury that affected him throughout the year still has to play itself out. If he's as bad into May as he was in all of 2015, then you know for sure you have a lemon. We're in that weird spot of can't standing a guy due to his abysmal performance last season and the way he handcuffs the roster, but conversely having no other option than to hope he does bounce back since we are stuck with his ass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSoxFanMike Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 QUOTE (Special K @ Jan 1, 2016 -> 05:20 PM) There is no chance this will ever happen. Absolute best case scenario, .240 with 10-12 homers. I've never seen someone deteriorate offensively so quickly in all my years watching baseball but it happened with LaRoche. Even his OBP was garbage. He really is this bad now. His agent better have gotten a phenomenal Christmas gift from him. Couldn't this exact same phrase have been said after Adam Dunn's 2011 season? His tenure with the Sox after that wasn't perfect, but it was leaps and bounds better than 2011. I don't think LaRoche will be any different. The worst case scenario for him next season IMO is .210 or so with 15 homers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Special K Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jan 1, 2016 -> 05:22 PM) LaRoche can turn it around. He's done it before in the past. Knows the AL a little bit more now. Not saying he'll be great, but I think he can better than last year.\ If you think LaRoche's ceiling is 10-12 HRs now, you're just plain wrong. I think we'll find out if I'm wrong soon enough. I hope I am wrong, but I don't see how you can be so certain given last years performance. At least Dunn's appendix burst, which was some type of excuse. I don't see anything to explain LaRoche other than some vague hand injury, which still doesn't explain the terrible OBP. I believe Dunn's OBP numbers were still there that one bad year. Out of curiosity, how long would you let LaRoche play out before pulling the plug (assuming he was still putting up atrocious numbers)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 1, 2016 -> 06:27 PM) Couldn't this exact same phrase have been said after Adam Dunn's 2011 season? His tenure with the Sox after that wasn't perfect, but it was leaps and bounds better than 2011. I don't think LaRoche will be any different. The worst case scenario for him next season IMO is .210 or so with 15 homers. One big difference? Adam Dunn was 32. Adam LaRoche was 36. It's much harder to believe that a 31 year old hit the wall than a 36 year old hit the wall. It does happen to 31 year olds, but it happens to a lot more 36 year olds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Special K Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 1, 2016 -> 05:27 PM) Couldn't this exact same phrase have been said after Adam Dunn's 2011 season? His tenure with the Sox after that wasn't perfect, but it was leaps and bounds better than 2011. I don't think LaRoche will be any different. The worst case scenario for him next season IMO is .210 or so with 15 homers. See above. Dunn had legitimate health issues. Wasn't his kid also deathly I'll as well that year? We will find out soon enough. Hope I am wrong, though the rest of the league must have no confidence in him either, since he could not be dealt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackmooncreeping Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 1, 2016 -> 05:27 PM) Couldn't this exact same phrase have been said after Adam Dunn's 2011 season? His tenure with the Sox after that wasn't perfect, but it was leaps and bounds better than 2011. I don't think LaRoche will be any different. The worst case scenario for him next season IMO is .210 or so with 15 homers. It's hard to forecast a 36 year old regressing player's stats at all, and it's even harder to forecast Laroche's #'s if he's going to be a part of a platoon. For example, do you think he can hit .210 with 15 hr's if he's part of a platoon? I personally think it's a stretch, not enough ABs for the HR's. To me, the only way he hits 15 bombs is as a full-time DH, and hopefully that's not in the cards since it probably means a .220ish average along with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saufley Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 QUOTE (Special K @ Jan 1, 2016 -> 05:31 PM) I think we'll find out if I'm wrong soon enough. I hope I am wrong, but I don't see how you can be so certain given last years performance. At least Dunn's appendix burst, which was some type of excuse. I don't see anything to explain LaRoche other than some vague hand injury, which still doesn't explain the terrible OBP. I believe Dunn's OBP numbers were still there that one bad year. Out of curiosity, how long would you let LaRoche play out before pulling the plug (assuming he was still putting up atrocious numbers)? For me it is how he looks during spring training Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmarComing25 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Assuming he plays very sparingly against LHP, I don't think a .725-.740 OPS is unrealistic to expect from LaRoche, which is still not good, especially at the DH spot, but still a decent amount better than what we got in 2015. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackmooncreeping Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 QUOTE (Saufley @ Jan 1, 2016 -> 06:02 PM) For me it is how he looks during spring training good point. If he still shows the same slow swing and lack of effective eye at the plate (how many times did he K looking at one right down the middle?), then you try one more desperate round of phone calls to see if there are any last second takers on a trade, then you could cut bait at that point or leave him languishing on the end of the bench? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWSpalehoseCWS Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jan 1, 2016 -> 05:09 PM) If LaRoche hit 240 with 18-22 bombs would make me happy. I can't see that happening. Best bet for the Sox would be to play LaRoche strictly against RHP to get rebuild some value and then try to dump him to a team midway through the season. I can't see LaRoche rebounding to 18-22 HR's while in a platoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 (edited) QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 1, 2016 -> 03:27 PM) Couldn't this exact same phrase have been said after Adam Dunn's 2011 season? His tenure with the Sox after that wasn't perfect, but it was leaps and bounds better than 2011. I don't think LaRoche will be any different. The worst case scenario for him next season IMO is .210 or so with 15 homers. I've seen this said a few times and Dunn was 32 in 2012 and LaRoche wil be 36 . Pretty big difference . Not sure why I keep seeing so many people saying he will rebound. I hope he rebounds but expecting it is quite another thing. I expect him to be bad because he is over the hill. Blaming it on a hand injury which required no DL stint is just some way to justify misguided rebound talk. LaRoche said at one point late in the season that he would've benched himself 2 months before Ventura did. http://www.csnchicago.com/white-sox/adam-l...-two-months-ago. Also in that article: LaRoche continues to be mystified by the particulars of his struggles. He has had difficulty spotting any significant differences when he looks at video of his swing now compared with when he has had past successes. Whereas he didn't panic when he struggled earlier in the year, as he always has, LaRoche admitted "when you get on later in the year it gets more difficult." The only thing I could find in a limited search for an injury was patella tendinitis . "The lingering knee malady has kept LaRoche out of the lineup since Sept. 13, but he believes he originally suffered the injury two months ago". That was from Sept. 24 . From July 22: White Sox 1B Adam LaRoche believes struggles are mental by Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com Struggling first baseman Adam LaRoche can only watch so much tape of his approach at the plate and swing. He realizes that his problems are more between his ears than what he sees on replay. LaRoche has been a dud in his first year in the Windy City. He is batting just .221 with nine home runs and 33 RBI in the middle of what should be a strong lineup. He is batting a mere .160 (8-for-50) with no taters and two RBI in July. "You keep swinging and you keep working," he told MLB.com. "There's only so much video you can watch, only so many things you can go back and look at that you think might have been different in the past. The fact is you just have to get in the box and be confident, expect good things to happen." Edited January 2, 2016 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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