Serious Talk about next years team...

[Harry Chappas]

That is why the next two weeks are huge. If we win we get a good team next year, if we lose we get a team chalk full of question marks and FA losses.

 

Garland, Loiaza, Buerhle, FA, FA is the norm for us. We will try and catch lightning in a bottle again.

[Chisoxfn]

Between Everett and Jose, thats 14.15 mill that can be spent on a SS of high caliber, a la Kazuo Matsui, or Miguel Tejada. That makes the most sense to me, although I haven't heard of the latest demands from Tejada...Jason, whats he looking for?

I couldn't see either shortstop getting anymore then 8 mill a year. This free agent class is supposed to be soft, money wise. Not many teams are out their saying they will spend big bucks.

 

Their is talk the Orioles will be active and the Dodgers may be active on the offensive front. Angels are interested in adding some pitching and then of course the Yanks are always buyers.

[Capn12]

If you give Kazuo or Tejada the money that Everett would be making, actually less, say 7-7.5 mil...we can still keep the payroll at what it is now...but, the $64,000 question....will JR take the staples off the wallet?

[Chisoxfn]

If you give Kazuo or Tejada the money that Everett would be making, actually less, say 7-7.5 mil...we can still keep the payroll at what it is now...but, the $64,000 question....will JR take the staples off the wallet?

I got a good feeling, win or lose the Sox are gonna have a payroll right around 70 mill next year.

[Capn12]

Well, if we get 70 mill to play with, then you are gonna see teh best Sox team on the field in 2004, that we've seen in years. We have arguably the best 1-2-3 in the A.L. Central, tons of power potential...especially if we upgrade at SS. And keep Gordon and Marte. That means letting Sully walk, and having a bullpen spot open next year.

[greg775]

We probably do need a new Jose for the future.

We better make the right choice, however.

Jose isn't as bad as a lot of the stiffs we've had play short in our franchise history.

Caruso was probably the worst. Or Richard.

[Al Lopez Ghost (old)]

The key is always the pitching rotation. If they can't/won't sign Colon, they need a real replacement - not a project. Next year the most effective pitchers we have may be Mark and Jon, then Esty. You must have another effective guy. If we go with a rotation of Mark, Jon, Esty, next year's version of Esty and say Stewart, or Cotts, forget about it, we ain't going nowhere. I say do whatever you can to resign Colon. That way you know you have a solid 1 through 4, and that will keep you in the running.

If we have a rotation that reads like a wing and a prayer, we're screwed.

[CubKilla]

We can talk seriously when we know how this team finishes out '03. I think it's gonna be ugly.

[Bmr31]

We can talk seriously when we know how this team finishes out '03. I think it's gonna be ugly.

You make a good point and im gonna make some money lol. Ya know how we all say this team is mentally weak? After tonights game, tomorrow will show just how weak they are or arent. Im betting on "are". I say the twins POUND us tomorrow.

[JUGGERNAUT]

You make a good point and im gonna make some money lol.  Ya know how we all say this team is mentally weak?  After tonights game, tomorrow will show just how weak they are or arent.  Im betting on "are". I say the twins POUND us tomorrow.

I'm sick of you always putting down SOX players Bmr.

 

Garland has given up no more than 4 runs in his last 17 starts & no more than 3 runs in his last 7 starts. So when you say they will pound us you sound like an arse for putting down Garland.

 

Jon lost 4-1 last week vs MIN battling Santana.

I like his chances against Rogers who has given up 12 runs in about 18 innings over his last 3 starts.

 

As for next year, the SOX need to look long & hard at signing Colon & here's why:

1) 221+ ip, & 3 starts to go. He saves your bullpen. That can save you 3-4mil a yr alone in DL time from the bullpen. Need evidence? How often has Gordon remained healthy enough to pitch a whole season?

 

2) If he can be had for 10mil/yr consider the impact over the last 3 yrs under KW.

10.25 for DW, 3.25 for Ritchie, 9 for Colon. Total = 24mil. You save 6mil & had 1 contending yr to show for it. Spend the $ on Colon.

 

3) Stopper. Colon has stopped more losing streaks than any pitcher on the SOX since Black Jack McDowell.

 

4) 8 CG. Nothing spells dominance more than CG's. With 3 starts to go, he's still got a shot at 10 & over 245 ip. The Sox have not had a starter with that many innings in a very long time.

 

5) Post-season experience & success.

[JUGGERNAUT]

I'm not against re-signing Val. But he needs to understand that he will only be used as a LH. He either hits that way vs LH's or he sits.

 

as RHB: .424 OPS (not even worth mentioning)

as LHB: .255A, .337OBP, .511SLG (.848 OPS)

Odds are he will have more success as LHB vs LH.

 

The monster trade would be:

Maggs+Koney to STL for Renteria+Drew.

STL will do it because Tino is costing them 7.5MIL & they've been trying to trade Drew all summer. Getting Maggs will take the scrub rivalry to a whole new level.

Pull in a 3rd team to take Drew for in return for a decent arm.

Renteria negates the need to sign Val.

Val+Koney+Maggs saves 28MIL over the payroll.

Renteria costs 5MIL (2 option yrs worth about 13MIL).

 

Renteria's #'s:

vs LH: (.376A, 477OBP, 651SLG, 1128OPS)

vs RH:(.314A, 363OBP, 431SLG, 794OPS )

 

Next comes R. Alomar:

vs LH: (194A, 250O, 291S, 541OPS)

vs RH: (284A, 366O, 378S, 744OPS)

I can't see paying him more than 3-4mil for those numbers.

He's essentially another failed switch hitter.

He had success a few yrs back, but I think it's gone now.

 

You can't do anything with Thomas.

If he wants back, he's back at 6mil.

But you can play him more at 1B which should help him at the plate.

 

Lee: His numbers are better than average but certainly a long way from being an all-star. I don't think he would command more than 7mil on the FA mkt or arbitration. He has the rbi #'s but he's not even in the 900 OPS range.

 

Everett:

vs LH(256A, 326O, 388S, 714 OPS)

vs RH(297A, 385O, 566S, 951 OPS)

I think his numbers are too good to retain him.

He's productive against both & great against RH's.

I can't see him signing for less than 7mil & multi-yr deal.

 

The bottom line KW has to ask himself, is which players had the biggest impact in the 2nd 1/2: I think the answer is

Lee, Everett, Thomas, Maggs, Koney, & Alomar.

But Koney offers nothing more than a bat & can kill a rally with a dp.

 

That too me should set the priority of retaining these players.

Which players showed the most improvement?

Lee, Everett, Thomas

 

There are so many FA's that will be available that it's very hard to predict what the SOX will do. KW will probably try to find bargains. Guys that come down hard from previous pay (like Rogers) & that will ultimately decide who stays & who goes. I don't beleive he will do contract extensions for Everett & Alomar. It's more likely they might offer arbitration (where they have to pay at least 80% of their current pay levels) or go through FA. The only players they will attempt to do an extension for are Colon, & Lee.

 

I figure the payroll will be < 60mil again.

[Bmr31]

AS strange as it seems, I kinda like that trade you mentioned. The sox need to strengthen their defense up the middle and their speed. However, i still think we can get a bit more for Maggs and Konerko.

[sat46]

No team in the history of baseball has ever or will ever keep the same exact team intact two years in a row.

 

Changes will be made and it's anyone's guess what those changes might be.

[Pastime]

Besides his HR to win the sweep against the Twins in July, Frank Thomas' numbers have been as hollow and empty as we have always accused Sammy Corka's numbers to be. We can survive without the "Big Sloth."

 

If I had my way, Konerko, Thomas, Koch, and Wunsch would be standing in the same unemployment line.

 

We can win without those guys.

 

But don't think for a minute that Reinsdrip or Kenny will increase payroll. They will continue to cry poormouth. The big debate used to be - "Sox fans say they won't come out unless the team pays players, but the team says they won't players unless the fans come out."

 

Well, they have a lot more money than they used to, but don't expect any great rewards for showing up at the "Cell." I'm sure the Reinsdick P.R. staff will find 100 reasons to not increase payroll.

 

And I hope to God that Jose Valentin does NOT reach his plate appearance clause. He sucks, regardless of his inflated bulls*** numbers. The guy is Julio Cruz reincarnated. At least Konerko has increased his trade value. Now if we can only find a stupidass GM with s***-for-brains who needs a 1B who is slower than a rusty refrigerator, can't hit consistently for a whole season, is mediocre defensively, and is a mope when he's struggling. Oh, how I wish Ed Lynch was still on the North Side.

[JUGGERNAUT]

There is history that suggests the SOX will fit a mid 60 payroll.

The attendance for 2003 will likely be close to 2000 if the SOX can win this Twinks series. That will keep them alive to boost the walkups.

 

Now considering the price increases in both parking, concessions, & tickets there's no question the revenue will increase over 2000.

 

KW was able to convince them to increase the payroll to 65mil in 2K1 with the Wells signing. So I don't think it's a given the same is not possible with a Colon signing.

 

It all comes down to what Colon's agent will be asking & what NY wants to do.

I've heard Wood's name mentioned as the heir apparent in NY for Clemens.

There is talk the scrubs will not offer Wood a big contract but rather pick up Clements option for 6mil. NY will seek a marquee fan gathering player to replace Clemens.

I think Kerry definitely has the nod over those credentials vs Colon.

 

Likewise I don't see Boston as a player. They have to pay Pedro the big $$$'s.

[Dick Allen]

KW has stated many times that this team was built for the long haul, not just 2003. If that means that ownership is going to have to step up financially or there are other tricks up their sleeve is anyone's guess. With the division as weak as it is, to totally tank and rebuild ala Cleveland would be deplorable. You don't have to be that great to make the playoffs. Minnesota is going to lose some players this off season, KC can't realistically be expected to do much, Cleveland probably needs a couple more years, and Detroit is hopeless. Let Rowand play CF, get a cheaper better SS (Eckstein perhaps), hope Koch can be at least average, sign some cheap relievers, maybe trade for a rent an ace again, and most importantly get the right man in the dugout. 2004 can be a lot of fun, they need to build on the momentum created this season, and who knows, they still have a chance this year.

[Capn12]

Yeah, you would think that they could let Everett and Jose walk away, along with Daubeach, Rios and Wunsch. Thats 15.625 million off the books, so to speak. That is enough to pay Buehrle, bump Colon up a bit, and still find a reasonably good shortstop, a la Kazuo Matsui. I don't see how Matsui is a losing proposition to a guy like JR. The merchandising and interest overseas alone would be enough reason to seriously consider Kazuo. I'd rather have this guy than Tejada right now, IMO.

[Chisoxfn]

Yeah, you would think that they could let Everett and Jose walk away, along with Daubeach, Rios and Wunsch. Thats 15.625 million off the books, so to speak. That is enough to pay Buehrle, bump Colon up a bit, and still find a reasonably good shortstop, a la Kazuo Matsui. I don't see how Matsui is a losing proposition to a guy like JR. The merchandising and interest overseas alone would be enough reason to seriously consider Kazuo. I'd rather have this guy than Tejada right now, IMO.

Get rid of PK and Thomas and then you can make some real big changes to the offense and keep the pitching staff in tact.

 

Actually if I dump Thomas, then I'd offer Everett a deal around 3-4 mill a year to DH and play outfield a bit. He's got such a great attitude, is a heads up baserunner, and can pitch in in so many ways.

 

Then add the shortstop and stick a young guy in center most of the time with Maggs/Lee around him and ocassionally have Everett out there (Great Veteran leadership).

 

Bring back someone to fill Sullivans role (if its not him, maybe Foulke depending on what he wants; but only way that happens is if Koch is gone somehow; So call that a pipedream; But him Gordon, Marte - LETHAL).

[Capn12]

Don't think you are gonna get Everett back at even 5 mill per. With his power display this year, we are more or less showcasing him for some other team. Sullivan at 3.1 mil option for 2004 won't happen. Foulke I can imagine will commany 7 mill per, plus with he and KW not seeing eye to eye, he won't ever wear the silver and black again, IMO. Thats leaves our pen with Marte, Gordon (hopefully we will resign both), Koch, Wright, Stewart maybe?. And Schoeneweis will be either the #5 starter, or the same role he has this year.

[Molto]

I wouldn't mind having Everett over Thomas simply because Everett is a lefty and can play the outfield if needed.

 

thing is, if you want to dump both Thomas and Konerko you will have to do so through trades, which I think will be way too hard to do (not one, but both). unless of course Thomas thinks he can make more elsewhere and signs a bigger deal.

 

I don't know if I'd want to dumb both of them. Konerko's value will still be pretty low, even with his second half surge, based on his contract and one-demensional, one-half play.

 

if I were to want Everett over Thomas (something I would really have to think about), I would sign him to a three-year deal, how much would you give him is the question.

 

Everett made $9.15 million this season, the final season of a four year $29 million dollar deal he signed before the 2000 season, one year after having his breakout season with the Astros. in 2000 he repeated his season, but hasn't been the same since, at least until this year. With him being 32 years old (33 in June of 2004), only having two 100 RBI seasons and only one 140+ game season (his second will most likely come this year), I bet we can sign him to a three year, $15 million dollar deal, especially if he likes it here.

 

That will actually be up to $16 million less than what we'd pay Thomas through 2006.

 

you can probably re-sign Alomar for a two-year deal, worth $7 mil I'd say, dump Valentin if you can and go get a young shortstop with some speed and defensive skills. that'll cut out $5 million.

 

along with that, I'd try to sign guys like Sullivan, Gordon and Marte, and build up our pen as our rotation will be weakened next season.

 

the big question in this all is how much will they be willing to spend next year. they've opened up a bit this year, but it's apparent they will not be willing to sign everyone on our team. it doesn't mean that they will cut payroll though.

 

Williams will have to be very creative in negotiating with the guys we have, or in getting guys to replace the guys we will lose. that is if we want to go for it all again next season.

[Capn12]

Heres the question, Molto....will JR spend 3.1 mill on a middle relief/setup guy in Sullivan? Priority-wise, I want 1)same 4 starters back, 2)a damn good SS, either Matsui(want more) or Tejada, 2b)Robbie back at 2B, 3)Everett back. If we can let Thomas walk after this year, thats something that you really have to think about. Thats a nice chunk of money. If we could move Konerko...then we will have to keep Thomas....which one would you rather have for now? I'll take the 6 mill Thomas over the 8+ mill Konerko. Will someone take him? Thats the question. Between Jose, Everett, and Konerko/Thomas, we can pare off at LEAST 20 mill!!! Thats going by what they made in 2003. If you can do that, thats enough $$$ to take care of Colon, Robbie, a damn fine SS, pay raises where earned, and arbitration.

[Dick Allen]

The problems are IMO :

1. Frank is going nowhere. He will take the $6 million option.

2. Magglio goes up $5 million to $14 million

3. Lee is arbitration eligible, he will cost an extra $2-3 million

4. Valentin has a good chance to vest his option.

5. Buerhle is eligible for arbitration.

6. Konerko makes $6 million and will be hard to move, unless you take the same money back.

7. Koch is in the same boat as Konerko.

Just those 7 will make a combined $45 million. The Sox have to bench Valentin now. They can't let him get his plate appearances. Although I think going after the Japanese SS would be a bold move, and could really payoff in more ways than one, its probably 1000 to 1 the Sox try to sign him. I'm afraid Magglio is going to be the one to go.

[Guest hotsoxchick1]

Although I think going after the Japanese SS would be a bold move, and could really payoff in more ways than one, its probably 1000 to 1 the Sox try to sign him.

jr wont shop in japan.. hes passed on that many times.........

[Capn12]

That 14 mill that Maggs is gonna make is definately sticking out in JR's mind, I'm sure. Yeah, Frank is almost a given to take that 6 mil option, unless some team really goes after him, not sure who would. The situation is, we need to 1)keep Jose from the PA vesting, 2)do everything we can to see Konerko moved elsewhere, 3)go after Kazuo Matsui. Everett is not a necessity, just a nice option to have. But he will want more than JR is gonna offer up I believe.

[Chisoxfn]

Heres the question, Molto....will JR spend 3.1 mill on a middle relief/setup guy in Sullivan? Priority-wise, I want 1)same 4 starters back, 2)a damn good SS, either Matsui(want more) or Tejada, 2b)Robbie back at 2B, 3)Everett back. If we can let Thomas walk after this year, thats something that you really have to think about. Thats a nice chunk of money. If we could move Konerko...then we will have to keep Thomas....which one would you rather have for now? I'll take the 6 mill Thomas over the 8+ mill Konerko. Will someone take him? Thats the question. Between Jose, Everett, and Konerko/Thomas, we can pare off at LEAST 20 mill!!! Thats going by what they made in 2003. If you can do that, thats enough $$$ to take care of Colon, Robbie, a damn fine SS, pay raises where earned, and arbitration.

I still say move Thomas and Konerko. I hope Thomas can get a long term deal somewhere else. And if Thomas turns down the Sox option and puts the pressure on the Sox, there is no way I'd offer him 8 mill so he'd be gone that way too (Although, this year he can test free agency without declining the option).

 

With Konerko, I'd personally move him looking for a middle infield prospect (YOu know the Sox need one) or a good young reliever. I wouldn't be asking for much cause the big thing is using his money on someone else. So when you trade Konerko for a nobody, you spend that 8 million on a better somebody (or a few of them).

 

Then to replace the first base gap, the Sox can sign a guy cheap. Look at people like Daubach/Ortiz and others that will be out there and bring in two of them and let the best one win and the other play on the bench. Preferably have one lefty and one a righty. THere are plenty of guys that could put up solid numbers (Daubach is one of them) when given consistent playing time.

 

I know you would lose a bit of production with Everett replacing Thomas and someone like Daubbie or other replacing Konerko, but you would add less one dimensional players. Everett can do the little things and not be a typical "DH" and open up room for a do everything guy like Rowand or Reed or even Borchard (Sorry, I think he gets dealt this offseason).

 

At short you get a player that can play defense, get on base, and do the little things (Run, etc) and Matsui fits that bill. You could move him to the 2 hole with Carlos Lee moving to the 3 hole (He will fit in good there) and Maggs in the cleanup slot. This way you have Alomar/Matsui at the top (Two good small ball guys) then two good contact hitters as well as guys that will have a very solid obp, power numbers and avg at the 3 and 4 (Lee/Maggs) and then you get your lefty in there at the 5 slot in Everett (Good OBP, Good Power, GOOD RBI and a good runner). So your first 5 guys all have good speed. At the 6 slot you go with Crede (HE's shown that he's a productive player; He will come up with clutch hits a solid avg, great defense, and power; Not a high OBP for now). Then in the 7 hole you go with your first baseman (Hopefully a lefty; Ala Daubach). You look for this guy to provide OBP, some power and to be a good contact hitter (Scott Spiezo would be very nice). In the 8 slot you go with your young centerfielder who can do everything decent, especially the little things and then you have the catching combo in the 9 hole (Alomar Sr if he wants to stay and Olivo).

 

Alomar Jr or Matsui (3 Mill)

Matsui or Alomar Jr (7 Mill)

Carlos Lee (6 Mill)

Magglio (14 Mill)

Everett (5 Mill)

Joe Crede (500K)

1st Baseman (500K to 2 mill)

Outfielder (Rowand/Reed/Borchard; CHEAP)

Olivo/Alomar/VET FA (CHEAP)

 

Thats a combined 38 mill at most devoted to the offense

 

Rotation

Colon (8-9 Mill)

Buehrle (4 Mill; assuming he accepts a long term deal; otherwise it be less)

Loaiza (3.5 mill; I think thats what his option is)

Garland (2-3 mill; Give him a nice reward; Probably a very high estimate though)

Insert Scho/Cotts/Rauch/Veteran to incentive laden deal (MAX 2 mill if incentives kick in; Most likely incredibly cheap)

 

Rotation = 20 mill (Pretty high estimate)

 

Bullpen

Koch (7 mill; think thats what he makes)

Gordon (2 mill; seems fair)

Marte (2 mill; just a guess, could be much less)

Sullivan (3.1 mill if the Sox want to)

Wright (500 K)

Wunsch (600 K)

Sanders/Munoz (300 K)

Free Agent (SIgn a vet for cheap; cause I'd like to see one more reliever)

 

Bullpen = 14 mill max

 

Total Payroll = 72 mill. The big ifs are Thomas/Konerko being gone. You also know that the following year Magglio won't make 14 mill a year and you lose Koch's salary. Others will increase, but the Sox now have most of their guys signed long term and you have this team built for the long haul. You give a few youngsters positions, but keep them in protected positions, where you don't need a lot out of them.