Dexter Fowler as a secondary option

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Or what if they do spend a lot, Cespedes tanks, and then they have no money for upgrades for the next 3 years?

It is absolutely worth the shot.

 

It isn't every day that a team has players like Sale, Quintana, Rodon, Eaton, Abreu, Frazier, Lawrie, and potentially Anderson and Fulmer all in their primes at the same time. Add Cespedes to that core and that team is going places.

 

If the Sox don't make another move, they'll definitely regret it down the line.

[Baron]

That's just a projection though?

 

I'm sure he had a negative projection last year given from past history. Players can outplay projections.

 

 

Technically in runs saved he was about right where he needed to be last year which was -12. The year before he was -20 which was a huge drop. Still Garcia actually gave up 1 less run and was positive in the assisted runs saved category. The amount of out of position runs they both gave up though is huge.

Edited January 14, 2016 by Baron

[caulfield12]

When they have a roster that's not already at their set budget level. Also, maybe when there's a superstar available for them. Cespedes is absolutely not a superstar.

 

If you take into consideration the draft pick loss...the difference per year on Cespedes at 4 years and $80 million isn't that extreme at all.

 

We've already seen the White Sox screw up their financial flexibility with Cabrera and LaRoche already...we keep making mistakes on second tier free agents, preventing us from ever signing the best ones.

 

Who's to say Fowler wouldn't be a complete bust?

 

Statistically, you can argue Cabrera and Fowler's collective bust rate vs. Upton and Cespedes individually.

 

I certainly agree you don't give Cespedes over $100 million or over four years...that's obvious.

[Lillian]

Austin Jackson is not a significant offensive upgrade over Avi. In fact, given Avi's age and inexperience, it would be reasonable to hope that he might out produce Jackson. Jackson would bring better defense, but that is not worth the money, which he would cost. If the Sox are going to settle for nothing more than a defensive upgrade in the outfield, I'd rather they tried to accomplish it with a young player with potential, who would not cost much.

 

There are plenty of guys around who haven't yet been able to demonstrate that they can be productive Major League hitters, but are good defensive players. Guys like Jordan Danks, and Trayce Thompson, who are both now gone, would make more sense than signing Jackson. In any case, if a new outfield acquisition is made, he better be able to play RF. I don't want to see Eaton or Melky out there, in that corner.

 

Cespedes is a different story, as his bat and defensive upgrade in LF would be enough to compensate for weaker defense in RF. You guys have persuaded me that he would not be willing, or even able, according to some, to play RF.

Edited January 14, 2016 by Lillian

[Baron]

Austin Jackson is not a significant offensive upgrade over Avi. In fact, given Avi's age and inexperience, it would be reasonable to hope that he might out produce Jackson. Jackson would bring better defense, but that is not worth the money, which he would cost. If the Sox are going to settle for nothing more than a defensive upgrade in the outfield, I'd rather they tried to accomplish it with a young player with potential, who would not cost much.

 

There are plenty of guys around who haven't yet been able to demonstrate that they can be productive Major League hitters, but are good defensive players. Guys like Jordan Danks, and Trayce Thompson, who are both now gone, would make more sense than signing Jackson. In any case, if a new outfield acquisition is made, he better be able to play RF. I don't want to see Eaton or Melky out there, in that corner.

 

Cespedes is a different story, as his bat and defensive upgrade in LF would be enough to compensate for weaker defense in RF. You guys have persuaded me that he would not be willing, or even able, according to some, to play RF.

 

Once again technically Jackson's defense is better than anyone we've been talking about except for Upton and Cespedes. He breaks even in alot of defensive categories which I cant say is the case for alot of these guys. The question is what value do you put on the prospect of potentially saving anywhere from around 11-15 runs? How many games do you think that could potentially cost if you dont save them?

Edited January 14, 2016 by Baron

[BlackSox13]

He's barely a defensive upgrade. He still gave up 20 runs in 2014 and 11 runs in 2015. Technically Garcia was better in that department than Fowler was. There was atleast a positive in the assists column. Cant say that for Fowler.

 

Plus to the person who quoted Fangraphs. They have him at a -8 for next year.

It's true Fowler is barely a defensive upgrade over Eaton but by moving Eaton to a corner OF spot, Eaton upgrades that corner spot. I'll take Eaton in LF or RF any day over Melky or Avi.

 

As for projections. Without knowing for sure what ball park Fowler will be playing defense in, that projection is rather meaningless. Imo, a more accurate way of looking at it is to judge Fowler's defense based upon last year. The Cell has deeper gaps but shorter lines than Wrigley so the difference should be somewhat minimal and roughly the same amount of ground to cover.

[Baron]

It's true Fowler is barely a defensive upgrade over Eaton but by moving Eaton to a corner OF spot, Eaton upgrades that corner spot. I'll take Eaton in LF or RF any day over Melky or Avi.

 

As for projections. Without knowing for sure what ball park Fowler will be playing defense in, that projection is rather meaningless. Imo, a more accurate way of looking at it is to judge Fowler's defense based upon last year. The Cell has deeper gaps but shorter lines than Wrigley so the difference should be somewhat minimal and roughly the same amount of ground to cover.

 

 

The only time I've used that projection was just a little bit ago. Everything else is from past years. He's a very bad defender. Especially in Center Field. Just how much are you willing to sacrifice is the question.

 

I'm on record of not wanting to sacrifice defense anymore in the outfield. I dont want to see tons of out of position runs given up again. Just poor fundamentals from bad defenders.

Edited January 14, 2016 by Baron

[caulfield12]

Once again technically Jackson's defense is better than anyone we've been talking about except for Upton and Cespedes. He breaks even in alot of defensive categories which I cant say is the case for alot of these guys. The question is what value do you put on the prospect of potentially saving anywhere from around 11-15 runs? How many games do you think that could potentially cost if you dont save them?

 

Jackson is better than both those guys...especially CF comparing him with Cespedes.

[ptatc]

I don't understand it fully, but here's Dave Cameron's explanation:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/position-adjustments/

So is he saying that 10 runs equals one win. If the difference from a catcher to a DH is 30 runs and it's 3 wins? Did they decide the 17.5 penalty for not being on the field is that the DH will contribute 1.75 less wins because he is not on the field helping?

 

Other than just making the math fit the model, this is what he seems to be saying.

Edited January 14, 2016 by ptatc

[Baron]

Jackson is better than both those guys...especially CF comparing him with Cespedes.

 

 

I think in the corner spots he's just a tad worse if I remember correctly. But definitely better in CF.

[BlackSox13]

The only time I've used that projection was just a little bit ago. Everything else is from past years. He's a very bad defender. Especially in Center Field. Just how much are you willing to sacrifice is the question.

 

I'm on record of not wanting to sacrifice defense anymore in the outfield. I dont want to see tons of out of position runs given up again. Just poor fundamentals from bad defenders.

And yet you have admitted that Fowler is barely an upgrade over Eaton so I really don't see the sacrifice you're talking about. Help me understand where you're coming from because I don't see it. Do you not think Eaton would be an upgrade over Melky in LF or Avi in RF? Adding Fowler to Eaton in the outfield would make the outfield more athletic by removing one of Melky/Avi who run more like lumberjacks.

 

Don't get me wrong, I agree the Sox need better defense from the outfielders.

[Dick Allen]

If you take into consideration the draft pick loss...the difference per year on Cespedes at 4 years and $80 million isn't that extreme at all.

 

We've already seen the White Sox screw up their financial flexibility with Cabrera and LaRoche already...we keep making mistakes on second tier free agents, preventing us from ever signing the best ones.

 

Who's to say Fowler wouldn't be a complete bust?

 

Statistically, you can argue Cabrera and Fowler's collective bust rate vs. Upton and Cespedes individually.

 

I certainly agree you don't give Cespedes over $100 million or over four years...that's obvious.

This is where you are so full of s***. When it was rumored the Sox were after Gordon or Cespedes, you said 4 year contracts were dumb. You also mentioned the Sox should sign Gerardo Parra, the guy that couldn't hit in the AL last year.

 

When the new rumor is Fowler, that is a dumb idea , he is a guy who will have a hard time adjusting to the AL. I think you forgot Houston was in the AL. No, you said now is the time to spend money. Of course earlier you told us the Sox didn't have any money, they spent it all last year, and no way they didn't take a loss during the 2015 season. You also told us there was no chance Cespedes would sign with the Sox unless they paid an additional percentage because he liked the marketing opportunities on the east coast, and/or his 3 months in Detroit.

Do you remember what you post, or do you just ignore the fact that you keep contradicting yourself based on the newest White Sox rumor?

[SoCalSox]

This is where you are so full of s***. When it was rumored the Sox were after Gordon or Cespedes, you said 4 year contracts were dumb. You also mentioned the Sox should sign Gerardo Parra, the guy that couldn't hit in the AL last year.

 

When the new rumor is Fowler, that is a dumb idea , he is a guy who will have a hard time adjusting to the AL. I think you forgot Houston was in the AL. No, you said now is the time to spend money. Of course earlier you told us the Sox didn't have any money, they spent it all last year, and no way they didn't take a loss during the 2015 season. You also told us there was no chance Cespedes would sign with the Sox unless they paid an additional percentage because he liked the marketing opportunities on the east coast, and/or his 3 months in Detroit.

Do you remember what you post, or do you just ignore the fact that you keep contradicting yourself based on the newest White Sox rumor?

 

Dick Allen dropping the well... Dick on top of Caulfield's head.

Edited January 14, 2016 by SoCalSox

[Dick Allen]

The only time I've used that projection was just a little bit ago. Everything else is from past years. He's a very bad defender. Especially in Center Field. Just how much are you willing to sacrifice is the question.

 

I'm on record of not wanting to sacrifice defense anymore in the outfield. I dont want to see tons of out of position runs given up again. Just poor fundamentals from bad defenders.

I think with Sale, Q, and Rodon, elite OF are not all that necessary. Just make the regular plays, throw to the right base....the 2005 White Sox had Pods and Dye in the corners. They really weren't good defenders, but they made the plays they had to make. Pods couldn't throw, and that is really all JD could do. And that OF was considered good defensively.

 

RH's obsession with ground ball pitchers and the small OF at USCF make having an elite OF defensively a luxury

Edited January 14, 2016 by Dick Allen

[caulfield12]

This is where you are so full of s***. When it was rumored the Sox were after Gordon or Cespedes, you said 4 year contracts were dumb. You also mentioned the Sox should sign Gerardo Parra, the guy that couldn't hit in the AL last year.

 

When the new rumor is Fowler, that is a dumb idea , he is a guy who will have a hard time adjusting to the AL. I think you forgot Houston was in the AL. No, you said now is the time to spend money. Of course earlier you told us the Sox didn't have any money, they spent it all last year, and no way they didn't take a loss during the 2015 season. You also told us there was no chance Cespedes would sign with the Sox unless they paid an additional percentage because he liked the marketing opportunities on the east coast, and/or his 3 months in Detroit.

Do you remember what you post, or do you just ignore the fact that you keep contradicting yourself based on the newest White Sox rumor?

 

Unless you know the exact amounts of the contracts, everything is relative.

 

Of course Parra, Jackson or Span are better than paying Cespedes six years and $150 million. Of course overpaying Fowler and losing the draft pick at the same time is dumb.

 

You're still arguing Jackson over Fowler, so what's the point?

 

Circumstances don't ever change?

 

I still stand by my December 23rd post that making a number of improvements instead of one big improvement is preferable.

 

IN GENERAL.

 

That said, if the choice of that last big improvement is Cespedes vs. Fowler, or Upton vs. Fowler, then I would much rather pay either of them four years and $80-90 million rather than signing Fowler and also losing the pick.

 

Why is that so hard to understand?

 

All along I've been mentioning Desmond and second tier starting options.

 

Please list all of the players remaining on the market, their salaries and then we can have a debate about the merits of one over another or two being better than one, etc.

Edited January 14, 2016 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

If everyone in MLB was so convinced that Dexter Fowler was so great after one year in Houston with no pressure on him, then why did he only receive a one year offer from the at the time rebuilding Cubs?

 

Why weren't contending teams willing to offer him a guaranteed starting role and multiple years?

 

[caulfield12]

Dick Allen dropping the well... Dick on top of Caulfield's head.

 

And for the last month everyone has been arguing we're inevitably going to sign Upton and Cespedes.

 

What changed?

 

 

Edited January 14, 2016 by caulfield12

[Baron]

And yet you have admitted that Fowler is barely an upgrade over Eaton so I really don't see the sacrifice you're talking about. Help me understand where you're coming from because I don't see it. Do you not think Eaton would be an upgrade over Melky in LF or Avi in RF? Adding Fowler to Eaton in the outfield would make the outfield more athletic by removing one of Melky/Avi who run more like lumberjacks.

 

Don't get me wrong, I agree the Sox need better defense from the outfielders.

 

 

I have absolutely no idea if Eaton is going to be any better switching spots. Replacing him with Fowler in CF is essentially a wash or worse(certainly capable of getting worse on defense as he's shown).Fowler had right around the same misplay(out of position) runs as Garcia.

[Dick Allen]

Unless you know the exact amounts of the contracts, everything is relative.

 

Of course Parra, Jackson or Span are better than paying Cespedes six years and $150 million. Of course overpaying Fowler and losing the draft pick at the same time is dumb.

 

You're still arguing Jackson over Fowler, so what's the point?

 

Circumstances don't ever change?

 

I still stand by my December 23rd post that making a number of improvements instead of one big improvement is preferable.

 

IN GENERAL.

 

That said, if the choice of that last big improvement is Cespedes vs. Fowler, or Upton vs. Fowler, then I would much rather pay either of them four years and $80-90 million rather than signing Fowler and also losing the pick.

 

Why is that so hard to understand?

 

All along I've been mentioning Desmond and second tier starting options.

 

Please list all of the players remaining on the market, their salaries and then we can have a debate about the merits of one over another or two being better than one, etc.

 

You are the one who said Cespedes wouldn't sign with the White Sox, and who would, unless they paid a significant premium. It is easy to understand you. Whatever the current White Sox rumor is, you take the other side. Dexter Fowler would be terrible, wouldn't be able to adjust to the AL, but he made perfect sense for Dayton Moore, who was going to copy KW but only much smarter.

 

 

[Baron]

I think with Sale, Q, and Rodon, elite OF are not all that necessary. Just make the regular plays, throw to the right base....the 2005 White Sox had Pods and Dye in the corners. They really weren't good defenders, but they made the plays they had to make. Pods couldn't throw, and that is really all JD could do. And that OF was considered good defensively.

 

RH's obsession with ground ball pitchers and the small OF at USCF make having an elite OF defensively a luxury

 

Nobody's asking for Elite Defense. If we wanted Elite Defense we would have signed Jason Heyward. Adding Fowler into that mix would probably equate them to being capable of combining for 4 losses worth of runs.

Edited January 15, 2016 by Baron

[Dick Allen]

If everyone in MLB was so convinced that Dexter Fowler was so great after one year in Houston with no pressure on him, then why did he only receive a one year offer from the at the time rebuilding Cubs?

 

Why weren't contending teams willing to offer him a guaranteed starting role and multiple years?

He was traded to the Cubs. That would have been tampering.

[Dick Allen]

Nobody's asking for Elite Defense. If we wanted Elite Defense we would have signed Jason Heyward. Adding Fowler into that mix would probably equate them to being capable of combining for 4 losses worth of runs.

I know you are admittedly obsessed by the runs saved stat, but doesn't that vary from year to year?

[SoCalSox]

And for the last month everyone has been arguing we're inevitably going to sign Upton and Cespedes.

 

What changed?

 

I was more trying to lighten the mood...

[Baron]

I know you are admittedly obsessed by the runs saved stat, but doesn't that vary from year to year?

 

 

I'm averaging.

[Dick Allen]

I'm averaging.

Out of curiosity how many runs did the Sox OF defense cost them in 2015?