Dexter Fowler as a secondary option

[CB2.0]

I was referring to the bolded portion of the post above, not the discussion at large. I should have bolded it before.

 

Gotcha.

 

And Sale is a HUGE value... I'm not saying he's not. In terms of WAR $, he was +$43M last year. That's insane.

 

My point was really about the Cubs swallowing their pride on guys like Schwarber and Soler and Baez.... I'd give em all up for Gray at minimum wage this year, and 4 years of team control.

 

Anyways, back to the topic - I agree with others that I think I'd rather see Hahn explore trade options rather than sign Fowler. His OBP is nice, but the pick and his defense just don't justify the cost for me. If we're willing to continue to be lackluster in defense in the outfield, then I want to see a big power bat.

Edited January 26, 2016 by CB2.0

[OmarComing25]

Where was I "completely wrong?"

 

I asked what is the cost to the A's for Gray "this year". I'm not disagreeing with anything you posted (agree 100% about the value gap shrinking over time), but:

 

1. Not a point anyone was making

2. If he continues to perform at current levels he's still more "bang for buck" value, particularly since he has virtually no impact on a team's payroll.

I think it's because we disagree on how to determine value. Let's say both pitchers live up to their projections by Steamer next year. Gray at 3.5 WAR certainly beats out Sale at 6 WAR if you look at value as salary/WAR. But by that same logic Erik Johnson at 0.5 WAR would be more valuable than Sale, which is just silly. If instead you look at the surplus value each pitcher provides beyond their contract, then it's easy to see why Sale would be more valuable (6 WAR would be $42-48 million in value, vs. ~$25 million for 3.5 WAR, going by the idea that 1 WAR = $7-8 million).

[CB2.0]

I think it's because we disagree on how to determine value. Let's say both pitchers live up to their projections by Steamer next year. Gray at 3.5 WAR certainly beats out Sale at 6 WAR if you look at value as salary/WAR. But by that same logic Erik Johnson at 0.5 WAR would be more valuable than Sale, which is just silly. If instead you look at the surplus value each pitcher provides beyond their contract, then it's easy to see why Sale would be more valuable (6 WAR would be $42-48 million in value, vs. ~$25 million for 3.5 WAR, going by the idea that 1 WAR = $7-8 million).

 

Erik Johnson at a .5 WAR is +$3M value by that logic.

Chris Sale at 6 WAR is +$32M value by that logic.

 

So no - it's not silly and Erik Johnson would not be more valuable than Sale or even close to it.

 

Also, Gray would be +$24M (which is less than Sale), but the point is that Sale is still a $9M hit against your payroll when putting a roster together whereas Gray is minimum wage. That is the other big piece of the value point I was trying to make.

 

[Eminor3rd]

Gotcha.

 

And Sale is a HUGE value... I'm not saying he's not. In terms of WAR $, he was +$43M last year. That's insane.

 

My point was really about the Cubs swallowing their pride on guys like Schwarber and Soler and Baez.... I'd give em all up for Gray at minimum wage this year, and 4 years of team control.

 

Anyways, back to the topic - I agree with others that I think I'd rather see Hahn explore trade options rather than sign Fowler. His OBP is nice, but the pick and his defense just don't justify the cost for me. If we're willing to continue to be lackluster in defense in the outfield, then I want to see a big power bat.

 

Yeah -- all three of those players have very loud flaws. I think the Cubs know it, but honestly I think the reason a deal hasn't been done is that other teams know it, too. I think they've been trying to sell Baez as a premium prospect for years, while the rest of the league sees his value as the median of the superstar outcome and the complete failure outcome.

 

RE: OF -- It's just going to be difficult to excuse the front office if they fail to SOMEHOW make a substantial upgrade over Avi. I think whiffing on all of those free agents was a huge mistake, because that represented several of the most effective options by far, and the prices were downright reasonable. I don't love Fowler either. Jackson is really more of a bounceback candidate than anything. The system is still weak enough that a major trade is going to have real implications on near-term depth, even if Hahn pulls another Frazier/Samardzija-style deal out of his ass.

 

I don't know, I just don't feel great about the remaining options overall.

[CB2.0]

Nope. Me either.

[Dick Allen]

Yeah -- all three of those players have very loud flaws. I think the Cubs know it, but honestly I think the reason a deal hasn't been done is that other teams know it, too. I think they've been trying to sell Baez as a premium prospect for years, while the rest of the league sees his value as the median of the superstar outcome and the complete failure outcome.

 

RE: OF -- It's just going to be difficult to excuse the front office if they fail to SOMEHOW make a substantial upgrade over Avi. I think whiffing on all of those free agents was a huge mistake, because that represented several of the most effective options by far, and the prices were downright reasonable. I don't love Fowler either. Jackson is really more of a bounceback candidate than anything. The system is still weak enough that a major trade is going to have real implications on near-term depth, even if Hahn pulls another Frazier/Samardzija-style deal out of his ass.

 

I don't know, I just don't feel great about the remaining options overall.

I don't know if the prices were all that reasonable. Cespedes you would probably have to guarantee over $30 million and risk losing him for 1 season. Gordon wasn't leaving KC, and Upton, a guy I wanted, was signed by a team where money is no obstacle. If the Sox offered him 6 years $150 million, you don't really think Illich would have topped that?

[Eminor3rd]

I don't know if the prices were all that reasonable. Cespedes you would probably have to guarantee over $30 million and risk losing him for 1 season. Gordon wasn't leaving KC, and Upton, a guy I wanted, was signed by a team where money is no obstacle. If the Sox offered him 6 years $150 million, you don't really think Illich would have topped that?

 

You may be right about being ultimately outbid on Upton, but I'd at least liked to have seen Illitch end up paying a price I WASN'T comfortable with. The fact that the "winning bid" was so reasonable just indicates that Sox weren't willing to submit a reasonable bid anyway. That's really the same way I feel about Gordon, too. He may have taken less to go to KC, but it seems unlikely he would have taken, say, $25-30m less. 5/100 would have been risky, but understandable and in-line with typical FA valuation.

 

And yeah, Cespedes was always going to choose the Mets at those terms (3 year + opt out), but the fact that we spent all season dicking around with the three-year deal garbage is the only reason the Mets were even an option at the end.

 

I think your point is that there were more factors at play than just money, and that some of these deals are more expensive than they look at first glance -- and I agree. But the fact remains that none of these teams needed a corner OF as badly as the White Sox*, and they all ended up with good options at solid prices. I think the Sox should have been more aggressive when the market was flush with supply, because that's when they actually had leverage. That way, they would have been the ones with the "deal to beat" as the agents scrambled to find other bidders late. With a reasonable bid on the table, other teams wouldn't have had the opening to "get creative" in the first place.

 

We could have made the 5/110-ish offer to Cespedes before the Nationals even emerged, we could have made Illitch pay $160m instead of $130m, and showing Gordon a nine-figure offer might have been enough to fill our hole whilst also creating a big problem in KC's OF, which might have been enough to justify the slight overpay.

 

EDIT: *Actually, the Royals totally did.

Edited January 26, 2016 by Eminor3rd

[shysocks]

I'm by far the most pissed about Gordon. That was an extremely beatable deal he took, even factoring in the hometown discount.

 

Anyway, wipe away all the caveats and if's and but's and focus on this remaining fact: The Sox went to the Outfielder Store, plenty of beautiful specimens were on display, and now most of them are gone while we're still pushing an empty shopping cart. I usually try not to be this blunt, I like to think I'm not on the whiner list, but that is a f***-up by the front office. I can't see it any other way.

 

Maybe we'll get lucky with the eventual solution and Austin Jackson will pull a Victorino and have an outsized career year for no reason. That's about what we need to be a real contender right now.

[shysocks]

Also feel free to steal my Outfielder Store analogy, it's pretty brilliant.

[shipps]

I'm by far the most pissed about Gordon. That was an extremely beatable deal he took, even factoring in the hometown discount.

 

Anyway, wipe away all the caveats and if's and but's and focus on this remaining fact: The Sox went to the Outfielder Store, plenty of beautiful specimens were on display, and now most of them are gone while we're still pushing an empty shopping cart. I usually try not to be this blunt, I like to think I'm not on the whiner list, but that is a f***-up by the front office. I can't see it any other way.

 

Maybe we'll get lucky with the eventual solution and Austin Jackson will pull a Victorino and have an outsized career year for no reason. That's about what we need to be a real contender right now.

 

Thats what FO seems to be banking on that from someone next year in that OF spot. But the thing that pisses me off is that when you do that 9 times out of 10 it doesnt work out for you...and those odds are probably being nice.

[Dick Allen]

Thats what FO seems to be banking on that from someone next year in that OF spot. But the thing that pisses me off is that when you do that 9 times out of 10 it doesnt work out for you...and those odds are probably being nice.

The Sox had some success doing this in the 90s. DJ, Ellis Burks, Mike Devereaux, Danny Tartabull.

 

Maybe they should bring back Schueler as a consultant.

Edited January 26, 2016 by Dick Allen

[bmags]

Yeah, that said, still want Jackson over Fowler, even though he's not as good.

[shysocks]

Thats what FO seems to be banking on that from someone next year in that OF spot. But the thing that pisses me off is that when you do that 9 times out of 10 it doesnt work out for you...and those odds are probably being nice.

Maybe Saladino's the guy to surprise us. They clearly love him, because Alexei signed elsewhere for peanuts (and I'd never be mistaken for Alexei's biggest fan) and I don't think they've even been linked to Desmond. Squint and you can see a 3 WAR season out of him.

 

We have a few guys like that. The problem is we have to squint.

[GGajewski18]

Hayes tweeting about how Fowler would help a ton with the lineup.

[Dick Allen]

Hayes tweeting about how Fowler would help a ton with the lineup.

I think he would. He's a big on base guy. Supposedly he tweaked his swing last year during the second half and started hitting like he used to after a very subpar second half.

[Knackattack]

Hayes tweeting about how Fowler would help a ton with the lineup.

He definitely would. Eaton and Fowler should both be .350-.360 OBP guys next year and between them you could get 30 steals and HR.. that's a pretty dynamic 1-2 at the top of the line up to set the table for Abreu and Frazier.

[SoCalSox]

Fowler would make a ton of sense for this team. If he didn't have a pick attached, I feel like most fans would be pounding the table for him right now, personally.

 

Can probably get him on a 3 year deal at $11-13M AAV.

[Dick Allen]

You mean subpar first half, right?

Yes. He was pretty horrid the first half.

[Knackattack]

Fowler would make a ton of sense for this team. If he didn't have a pick attached, I feel like most fans would be pounding the table for him right now, personally.

 

Can probably get him on a 3 year deal at $11-13M AAV.

So, would you be okay with trading the Shark package for 3 years of Fowler at that price? Basically that has to be the mindset behind signing a QO free agent at this point.

[Dick Allen]

Fowler would make a ton of sense for this team. If he didn't have a pick attached, I feel like most fans would be pounding the table for him right now, personally.

 

Can probably get him on a 3 year deal at $11-13M AAV.

I still don't get the must some have in holding on to this pick. Considering the outrage Shark and therefore this pick wasn't traded in July, one would be led to believe it was a worthless pick. They still would have their full draft intact. You basically would be making the trade Semien et al for 1 year of Shark and 3 years of Fowler. Sure, I'd like them to keep the pick, but it isn't a killer at all.

[shysocks]

Fowler would make a ton of sense for this team. If he didn't have a pick attached, I feel like most fans would be pounding the table for him right now, personally.

 

Can probably get him on a 3 year deal at $11-13M AAV.

The draft pick isn't my only reservation with Fowler. I think he'll cost more than that, and I'd also prefer a more talented defender.

[Knackattack]

The draft pick isn't my only reservation with Fowler. I think he'll cost more than that, and I'd also prefer a more talented defender.

I can't see Fowler getting more than 3/36 or 4/45

[bmags]

I still don't get the must some have in holding on to this pick. Considering the outrage Shark and therefore this pick wasn't traded in July, one would be led to believe it was a worthless pick. They still would have their full draft intact. You basically would be making the trade Semien et al for 1 year of Shark and 3 years of Fowler. Sure, I'd like them to keep the pick, but it isn't a killer at all.

 

I don't know if it's just a pick, it's the committing to a likely-bad defensive OF with limited power. His OBP is great, but, at least with Jackson you know it's a placeholder to upgrade. With Fowler, it's committing to a pretty average OF for a long time.

[bmags]

The draft pick isn't my only reservation with Fowler. I think he'll cost more than that, and I'd also prefer a more talented defender.

 

Yes to both.

[BlackSox13]

Fowler would make a ton of sense for this team. If he didn't have a pick attached, I feel like most fans would be pounding the table for him right now, personally.

 

Can probably get him on a 3 year deal at $11-13M AAV.

Agreed, I think the pick is a hangup for many of us fans and its why I'm on the fence with Fowler. I guess one way to look at it would be Samardzija turned into a comp pick and the Sox could could turn the comp pick into Fowler who should help the Sox more than Samardzija did.