Dexter Fowler as a secondary option

[shysocks]

No matter what you think of the pick, this is twisted logic. Saying that the 28th pick hasn't been good rarely, so we shouldn't care about picking 28th is silly.

 

The 2015 draft shows why the draft pool is nice. We basically got two quality draft picks in the first 10 rounds, and then had to fill it up with slot/under slot signings to fit Zangari in.

Also, you can isolate the history of the 1st pick and examine it. You can examine the history of the #2 pick. I feel like looking specifically at the 28th pick isn't that informative.

 

Look in the general area of 28. What about the 29th pick? In the past 15 years that pick has resulted in Adam Wainwright, Carlos Quentin, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Joe Panik. Holy s*** man, that's some talent. It's also produced its share of duds, and 27 and 28 don't have nearly that measure of success, but the point is you can land a good player that late in the draft.

 

I am not advocating keeping this pick above all else. Other moves this offseason have traded the future for now, and I'm a believer in a consistent strategy. What I am advocating is giving it up only for the right player. Otherwise, keep it and use it to help build.

 

I think that, given the availability of Austin Jackson, using the pick on Dexter Fowler would be unwise.

[caulfield12]

I'm not seeing the compelling need to overpay Fowler based on last year.

 

Jackson automatically starts out with $11-13 million more value preserving the pick.

 

He improves the defense automatically, the single biggest issue for the Sox last year.

 

At much less the cost of Fowler, he preserves payroll flexibility to add Desmond and/or more talent at the trade deadline.

 

He's spent a lot of time (successfully) in the Central and would be even more motivated to beat Detroit.

 

Finally, his offensive slump wasn't so much about Safeco as playing anywhere outside of Michigan after the first three months of 2014...compare his home to away stats, there's a 200+ point shift in favor of home vs. away.

 

 

Frankly, though, I would much rather have Desmond than either outfielder if I could only choose 1/3 for now.

Edited January 26, 2016 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

Steve Stone was on White Sox Weekly a couple of weeks ago and he was emphasizing the White Sox really wanted a LH hitter. He almost made it sound like they actually had some interest in Chris Davis. Cespedes has reverse splits so that would have worked. They were in until the end with Gordon. So I think if it came down to it, Fowler being a switch hitter, even though Jackson is about the same vs. both sides would win out as more desirable for RH.

[southsider2k5]

Right but that was missing a 2nd and 3rd rounder. Even if they give up the pick here, they still have their normal full draft. The fact is there are overwhelming odds Fowler, 10 years from now, was a better player than the guy the team would have selected with pick #28 or what the additional draft pool would have brought. Of course it could be the other way around, but look at the bright side, their second rounder moves up a spot if they lose the comp pick.

 

Odds are pretty high that the player drafted #28 by the Sox this year is automatically their #4 prospect (being some combination of Anderson, Fulmer, and the #10 pick), and a decent chance at being a top 100 prospect in the game within the next year or two. The team also then has a few options in the draft. They could go the Astros route of saving money on their top pick, and then getting a sliding player at #28. They could go under on the 28th pick, and pick a guy with a big demand that they might not have drafted at #10. They could go under slot at either #10 or #28 and use that money to bring in a post round 10 HS kid that had planned on going college and add another kid they didn't have a chance at before.

 

For the team that has traded away 3 of their top 10 prospects in the last few months, that has a lot of value. I know you keep saying they have a "normal" draft if they give up the pick, but I think a large part of why they didn't give up Samardjiza was because of assigning a specific value to that particular pick. It is an asset.

 

The big difference is if the Sox do hit on a major league player with that pick, they will pay them $1.5 million over three years while they would pay Fowler somewhere around $10 million a year for each of three years. So while the odds are low of it happening, if it does happen, the payoff is big.

[Chicago White Sox]

Sign Desmond to 3 yr deal, Jackson to 1 with option. After 2016, Desmond or Anderson can transition to the outfield or Anderson becomes a great trade chip.

100% agree with this. I'm a Saladino fan, but Desmond provides a better floor and much more upside. Also, worry about where Desmond & Anderson fit in next year. As for Jackson, he has his warts and his Seattle numbers are a bit worrisome, but his defense provides a floor and allows us to move Eaton to a corner where his defensive value improves.

 

And if the contracts are structured right, I think we could squeeze them both in at $20M next year, which in theory should have been Cespedes type money.

[103 mph screwball]

Sign Desmond to 3 yr deal, Jackson to 1 with option. After 2016, Desmond or Anderson can transition to the outfield or Anderson becomes a great trade chip.

 

Desmond being considered for outfield or second base by teams MLB Trade rumors

 

This is from December and doesn't mention Sox specifically, but if Anderson is a super stud, Desmond can play super sub. Desmond is risky but he comes at a buy low price.

[Dick Allen]

Odds are pretty high that the player drafted #28 by the Sox this year is automatically their #4 prospect (being some combination of Anderson, Fulmer, and the #10 pick), and a decent chance at being a top 100 prospect in the game within the next year or two. The team also then has a few options in the draft. They could go the Astros route of saving money on their top pick, and then getting a sliding player at #28. They could go under on the 28th pick, and pick a guy with a big demand that they might not have drafted at #10. They could go under slot at either #10 or #28 and use that money to bring in a post round 10 HS kid that had planned on going college and add another kid they didn't have a chance at before.

 

For the team that has traded away 3 of their top 10 prospects in the last few months, that has a lot of value. I know you keep saying they have a "normal" draft if they give up the pick, but I think a large part of why they didn't give up Samardjiza was because of assigning a specific value to that particular pick. It is an asset.

 

The big difference is if the Sox do hit on a major league player with that pick, they will pay them $1.5 million over three years while they would pay Fowler somewhere around $10 million a year for each of three years. So while the odds are low of it happening, if it does happen, the payoff is big.

That Astros route didn't work out so well for them. I think the would have been better off with Bryant and Rodon rather than Appel and Aiken.

[caulfield12]

100% agree with this. I'm a Saladino fan, but Desmond provides a better floor and much more upside. Also, worry about where Desmond & Anderson fit in next year. As for Jackson, he has his warts and his Seattle numbers are a bit worrisome, but his defense provides a floor and allows us to move Eaton to a corner where his defensive value improves.

 

And if the contracts are structured right, I think we could squeeze them both in at $20M next year, which in theory should have been Cespedes type money.

 

Still think it's closer to $25 million...we'll see. I don't think you'd want players who are resenting the feeling they are underpaid...but maybe that's the sting of motivation both guys would need. We know that Fowler is still likely to be overpaid despite the QO attached.

 

As far as Desmond vs. Anderson, one of them could see more time at DH or in the outfield...but you have this entire season to assess.

 

Basically, getting some positional flexibility and speed/athleticism at two additional spots, compared to Avi's physical potential which is largely untapped or underutilized.

[caulfield12]

That Astros route didn't work out so well for them. I think the would have been better off with Bryant and Rodon rather than Appel and Aiken.

 

Of course, at also depends on how quickly their top four from 2015 make an impact, with Cameron as a huge upside wild card just like his father.

[OmarComing25]

Still think it's closer to $25 million...we'll see. I don't think you'd want players who are resenting the feeling they are underpaid...but maybe that's the sting of motivation both guys would need. We know that Fowler is still likely to be overpaid despite the QO attached.

 

As far as Desmond vs. Anderson, one of them could see more time at DH or in the outfield...but you have this entire season to assess.

 

Basically, getting some positional flexibility and speed/athleticism at two additional spots, compared to Avi's physical potential which is largely untapped or underutilized.

What's best case scenario for the AAV for Jackson and Desmond?

 

Jackson at $8 million AAV and Desmond at $14-15 million AAV?

[caulfield12]

$22.5 million just might do it....

 

 

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2016/1/24/1082...-of-free-agents

 

See last paragraph and then the sentence below it, haha.

 

White Sox a cost-efficient line-up? Well, if you take Cabrera and LaRoche out of the equation, sure. You can argue all the other guys might even be underpaid, like Frazier, Eaton and Abreu. Lawrie and Avila still have some decent upside if healthy.

Edited January 26, 2016 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

The problem with Austin Jackson is Scott Boras.

[bmags]

That Astros route didn't work out so well for them. I think the would have been better off with Bryant and Rodon rather than Appel and Aiken.

 

I think you are missing the forest for the trees here, Dick.

 

If we want to continue to spur top level FAs and use our farm to get major league ready players, that single pick may lead to 3-4-5 additional high school or other players into our system that otherwise would not be.

 

Last year was extremely thin with among other things 2 picks missing and then less signings after.

 

It should be even more valuable to Sox, not less.

[Dick Allen]

I think you are missing the forest for the trees here, Dick.

 

If we want to continue to spur top level FAs and use our farm to get major league ready players, that single pick may lead to 3-4-5 additional high school or other players into our system that otherwise would not be.

 

Last year was extremely thin with among other things 2 picks missing and then less signings after.

 

It should be even more valuable to Sox, not less.

If Carson Fulmer is a pitcher, no matter how well the other draftees do, the 2015 draft is a big success. When Larry Himes rebuilt the White Sox, his first rounders were studs. In 3 of his 4 drafts, the rest of the draft produced pretty much next to nothing. The only guys he drafted after the 1st round that signed and helped the White Sox were in 1990 with Ray Durham and Jason Bere. He also drafted Bob Wickman that year who was eventually traded for Steve Sax. Yet those drafts turned the White Sox into contenders for a while.

[caulfield12]

The problem with Austin Jackson is Scott Boras.

 

Wasn't that all overblown with KW?

 

Hahn apparently had no problems dealing with him over Rodon (yet.)

[southsider2k5]

I think you are missing the forest for the trees here, Dick.

 

If we want to continue to spur top level FAs and use our farm to get major league ready players, that single pick may lead to 3-4-5 additional high school or other players into our system that otherwise would not be.

 

Last year was extremely thin with among other things 2 picks missing and then less signings after.

 

It should be even more valuable to Sox, not less.

 

The problem really comes if someone at the major league level flops or gets hurt with that lack of depth.

[Dick Allen]

Wasn't that all overblown with KW?

 

Hahn apparently had no problems dealing with him over Rodon (yet.)

Scott Boras is a problem for every team. Unless you want to give Austin Jackson a deal like KC gave Ian Kennedy, he is prepared to wait it out, at which point any alternatives will be gone. I have no idea what they are asking right now, but I assume if it was anything like a 1 or 2 year deal for $8 million a year, he would have a team.

Edited January 26, 2016 by Dick Allen

[Dick Allen]

The problem really comes if someone at the major league level flops or gets hurt with that lack of depth.

You can pick up OF off the scrap heap though. Signing Fowler makes just as much, actually more impact on your immediate depth than a draft pick who won't be ready for a while.

[southsider2k5]

You can pick up OF off the scrap heap though. Signing Fowler makes just as much, actually more impact on your immediate depth than a draft pick who won't be ready for a while.

 

Not if it happens midseason.

[bmags]

If Carson Fulmer is a pitcher, no matter how well the other draftees do, the 2015 draft is a big success. When Larry Himes rebuilt the White Sox, his first rounders were studs. In 3 of his 4 drafts, the rest of the draft produced pretty much next to nothing. The only guys he drafted after the 1st round that signed and helped the White Sox were in 1990 with Ray Durham and Jason Bere. He also drafted Bob Wickman that year who was eventually traded for Steve Sax. Yet those drafts turned the White Sox into contenders for a while.

 

So? The White Sox just acquired Brett Lawrie for JB Wendelken and Zach Erwin, yet by your current logic path, those players would have no bearing on the future of the white sox because they are not top picks and top prospects.

 

The extra budget pool we acquire with the 28th pick lets us get a couple more JB Wendelken and Zach Erwin and possibly a gigantic lottery winner. The explicit players may end up not succeeding for the white sox, but that doesn't mean they are without value if they don't make big leagues for the White Sox.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

So? The White Sox just acquired Brett Lawrie for JB Wendelken and Zach Erwin, yet by your current logic path, those players would have no bearing on the future of the white sox because they are not top picks and top prospects.

 

The extra budget pool we acquire with the 28th pick lets us get a couple more JB Wendelken and Zach Erwin and possibly a gigantic lottery winner. The explicit players may end up not succeeding for the white sox, but that doesn't mean they are without value if they don't make big leagues for the White Sox.

Not at all. One of them they actually acquired as a throw in for the Peavy deal. The other guy was picked last year without the 2nd and 3rd rounders.

 

What you are missing is the Sox would be getting the services of a major league player. One that has outperformed Brett Lawrie.

Edited January 26, 2016 by Dick Allen

[bmags]

I bet you loved the Amelia Bedelia books as a kid.

[Dick Allen]

Not if it happens midseason.

And who are you going to be able to draft at 28 next June that will help the White Sox midseason?

[bmags]

Not at all. One of them they actually acquired as a throw in for the Peavy deal. The other guy was picked last year without the 2nd and 3rd rounders.

 

What you are missing is the Sox would be getting the services of a major league player. One that has outperformed Brett Lawrie.

 

At market price, when there are other options. So no, I am not missing that, I am just able to handle the different considerations for different options for the white sox and come up with conclusions for what's best for the White Sox.

 

You, on the other hand, are solely entertained by taking what you take to be a "board opinion", mash multiple opinions into a single, made-up poster, and push the made-up poster's opinion to an illogical extreme that suits you: the 28th pick is more valuable than Dexter Fowler. No, but the 28th pick + market price and years may be reason to not sign a player that provides just elite OBP to Sox.

[Knackattack]

And who are you going to be able to draft at 28 next June that will help the White Sox midseason?

The pick itself is important because we do have to stock the farm with some talent. You never know if some one slides due to some concern and tears it up quick making another player expendable to help for 2017. However for a player like Desmond or Fowler who you could get a little cheaper than normal, I'd be okay with losing it.