Dexter Fowler as a secondary option

[caulfield12]

How many big years did Cespedes have in the AL? 2? Fowler played,1,season in the AL and had a career high 124 wRC+. Your claim that he would have a hard time adjusting to the AL is based,on nothing and full of s***.

 

 

What was his WAR?

 

The White Sox can go ahead and sign another Cub hero...it would be kind of typical.

 

But thanks for taking every argument and making it as if you're conclusively right and it's insane to think he might not smoothly and seamlessly adjust back to the AL Central because of one year in Houston where there was zero pressure to produce anything and nobody in even Houston was paying attention. It did allow him to resuscitate his career.

 

All of Cespedes' numbers were put up on playoff-contending teams...or at least teams who started those seasons expecting to make it, except for his rookie year in Oakland possibly.

Edited January 14, 2016 by caulfield12

[bmags]

Who was the last cub hero we signed?

[OmarComing25]

The 1B ratings seem way off. Nearly every 1B has a horrible rating.

It's the positional adjustments. Every 1B starts off with -12.5 runs on defense, so Rizzo at -8.9 means he rated out positively for the position.

 

I believe these are the adjustments, but many say they are too extreme (which means C, SS, 2B and 3B might be overvalued, while LF, RF, 1B and DH are undervalued):

 

Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)

Shortstop: +7.5 runs

Second Base: +2.5 runs

Third Base: +2.5 runs

Center Field: +2.5 runs

Left Field: -7.5 runs

Right Field: -7.5 runs

First Base: -12.5 runs

Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs

[GGajewski18]

What was his WAR?

 

The White Sox can go ahead and sign another Cub hero...it would be kind of typical.

 

But thanks for taking every argument and making it as if you're conclusively right and it's insane to think he might not smoothly and seamlessly adjust back to the AL Central because of one year in Houston where there was zero pressure to produce anything and nobody in even Houston was paying attention. It did allow him to resuscitate his career.

 

All of Cespedes' numbers were put up on playoff-contending teams...or at least teams who started those seasons expecting to make it, except for his rookie year in Oakland possibly.

 

1.4 with the Astros. 3.2 last year with the Cubs.

[Jose Abreu]

Who was the last cub hero we signed?

Dioner Navarro

[ptatc]

Who was the last cub hero we signed?

Paul Assenmacher and Davey Martinez. Maybe Will Ohman?

[Jose Abreu]

And last year, the terrific trio of Samardzija, Soto, and Bonifacio

[bmags]

That said I'm against this signing.

[Baron]

No but let's not pretend Eaton was any better in CF either. As crazy as it sounds, Fowler is a defensive upgrade over Melky/Avi/Eaton. Yep, that's how bad the Sox OF was last year.

 

 

He's barely a defensive upgrade. He still gave up 20 runs in 2014 and 11 runs in 2015. Technically Garcia was better in that department than Fowler was. There was atleast a positive in the assists column. Cant say that for Fowler.

 

Plus to the person who quoted Fangraphs. They have him at a -8 for next year.

Edited January 14, 2016 by Baron

[ptatc]

It's the positional adjustments. Every 1B starts off with -12.5 runs on defense, so Rizzo at -8.9 means he rated out positively for the position.

 

I believe these are the adjustments, but many say they are too extreme (which means C, SS, 2B and 3B might be overvalued, while LF, RF, 1B and DH are undervalued):

 

Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)

Shortstop: +7.5 runs

Second Base: +2.5 runs

Third Base: +2.5 runs

Center Field: +2.5 runs

Left Field: -7.5 runs

Right Field: -7.5 runs

First Base: -12.5 runs

Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs

How can a DH cost you runs on defense? He isn't even out there. Someone must have done a retrospective study and came up with this number to make the math work.

[Jose Abreu]

How can a DH cost you runs on defense?

When they distract the infield from the dugout and the infielder commits an error, sabermetrics attribute the error the the DH.

[GGajewski18]

He's barely a defensive upgrade. He still gave up 20 runs in 2014 and 11 runs in 2015. Technically Garcia was better in that department than Fowler was. There was atleast a positive in the assists column. Cant say that for Fowler.

 

Plus to the person who quoted Fangraphs. They have him at a -8 for next year.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

 

I don't see -8 anywhere.

[caulfield12]

If there was ever going to be a time for the White Sox to spend big on a free agent...it's here and now.

 

If not now, when exactly?

 

 

 

 

[Baron]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

 

I don't see -8 anywhere.

 

Look at the steamer projections for 2016 on his main bio page

[OmarComing25]

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

 

I don't see -8 anywhere.

Look at his 2016 Steamer projection

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OF

[ptatc]

If there was ever going to be a time for the White Sox to spend big on a free agent...it's here and now.

 

If not now, when exactly?

When JR hist the 1.6 billion lottery?

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

If there was ever going to be a time for the White Sox to spend big on a free agent...it's here and now.

 

If not now, when exactly?

This.

 

It's now or never as far as I'm concerned.

[fathom]

If there was ever going to be a time for the White Sox to spend big on a free agent...it's here and now.

 

If not now, when exactly?

 

When they have a roster that's not already at their set budget level. Also, maybe when there's a superstar available for them. Cespedes is absolutely not a superstar.

[fathom]

This.

 

It's now or never as far as I'm concerned.

 

Or what if they do spend a lot, Cespedes tanks, and then they have no money for upgrades for the next 3 years?

[caulfield12]

How can a DH cost you runs on defense? He isn't even out there. Someone must have done a retrospective study and came up with this number to make the math work.

 

They don't.

 

It's a way to subjectively punish those players for not playing the field everyday in terms of their contribution...it overvalues catcher, SS and CF and does the opposite with 1b and DH.

 

 

 

[GGajewski18]

Look at the steamer projections for 2016 on his main bio page

 

That's just a projection though?

 

I'm sure he had a negative projection last year given from past history. Players can outplay projections.

[OmarComing25]

How can a DH cost you runs on defense? He isn't even out there. Someone must have done a retrospective study and came up with this number to make the math work.

I don't understand it fully, but here's Dave Cameron's explanation:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/position-adjustments/

 

Back before the winter meetings started and there were all kinds of trades and free agent signings to analyze that took up all of our writing here, we were all ridiculously excited about the addition of UZR data the FanGraphs statistics section. Now that we have a lull in transaction analysis, I want to get back to talking about UZR, fielding metrics, and evaluating the best ways to view them. Most of my posts the rest of the week will focus on these issues.

 

Starting off, I want to talk about positional context. If I asked you who the best defensive player in baseball was, would your answer be Carl Crawford? Probably not. He’s definitely an asset defensively, but does anyone think he’s really the best defensive player in the game? His 2008 UZR/150 is better than everyone else, though, so if you were just sorting the entire league by that metric, Crawford stands head and shoulders above everyone else.

 

However, we all instinctively understand that the quality of defenders at each position is not even. Crawford rates remarkably well as a left fielder in large part due to the fact that left fielders are lousy defenders as a group. In fact, if we just look at UZR/150 for qualified left fielders in 2008, only three of the 13 players on the list have above average rankings – Crawford at 28.6, Fred Lewis at 12.1, and Matt Holliday at 5.2. The bottom of the list is populated by guys who should be DH’ing – Pat Burrell, Raul Ibanez, and Adam Dunn. Teams use left field as a hiding ground for good hitters with lousy defensive abilities in order to get their bats in the line-up, so when a team like Tampa goes the alternate direction and sticks a good glove in LF, he’s going to look like a superstar, thanks to the relative uselessness of his peers.

 

If Crawford played CF, which is his more natural position given his defensive abilities, he’d certainly rate a lot lower than +28 runs. This isn’t because CF is any harder to play than LF, but simply because the people he would be compared to are much better defensively than the people he’s compared to as a left fielder. This should seem somewhat obvious, but I’ve seen a lot of people talk about relative defensive rankings for up the middle players being lower because of the harder nature of the position, but it’s really just the peer group that is chosen for comparison.

 

If Carl Crawford was put into a room of 5’5 people, he’d appear tall. If he was put into a room of 6’5 people, he’d appear short. Think of left field, right field, first base, and designated hitter as positions of short people. You don’t have to actually be the best defensive player in the league to look like a defensive whiz when the standard you’re being held to is so low.

 

This is why, when you see us talking about total value of a player, you’ll see position adjustments come up in the discussion. Since each player is being rated by UZR relative to average at that position, we have to come up with a scale that neutralizes all of the averages so that they’re somewhat similar to each other.

 

Tom Tango has developed the most commonly accepted set of positional adjustments out there right now, based on historical data of how players perform when they move from one position to another. His scale is as follows:

 

Catcher: +12.5 runs

Shortstop: +7.5 runs

Second Base: +2.5 runs

Third Base: +2.5 runs

Center Field: +2.5 runs

Left Field: -7.5 runs

Right Field: -7.5 runs

First Base: -12.5 runs

Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs

 

Essentially, the width of the spectrum of major league players being used at their best positions is about 30 runs – if you have a league average defensive catcher and you make him a full time DH, you’ve whacked about three wins off of his value.

 

These positional adjustments match up with common knowledge pretty well – catchers are scarce, shortstops are the best non-catcher defenders, and the immobile stiffs get hidden at DH/1B/LF/RF, depending on how just how immobile they really are. It’s the middle part of the spectrum – second base, third base, and center field – that cause some disagreement. We’ll get into those three positions specifically this afternoon.

[fathom]

Look at his 2016 Steamer projection

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OF

 

Every steamer projection I've seen for players projects a lower than usual defensive rating.

[fathom]

That's just a projection though?

 

I'm sure he had a negative projection last year given from past history. Players can outplay projections.

 

Fowler went from the gigantic outfields of Houston and Colorado to a much easier CF in Chicago. Same would hold true at the Cell

[OmarComing25]

Every steamer projection I've seen for players projects a lower than usual defensive rating.

Yeah projections in general shouldn't be taken too seriously, but defensive projections especially should be taken with a large grain of salt.

Edited January 14, 2016 by OmarComing25